Successful Armada of 1779

Lusitania

Donor
There's success and then there's SUCCESS. It's going to take a massive victory to dismantle the British empire, and that's what it would be if you take North America, the Carribean, Minorca, and Ireland.

Far more likely is that France/Spain get in and get out with a moderate peace OR they go for broke and end up bogged down in a big morass. Either way, the USA is born.

Spain wanted Florida and Gibraltar back. Both are doable. Not sure how much they were anxious for Minorca, but I'm thinking Britain wants that more than Gibraltar. The Falklands are also a small nugget that Spain is going to want.

France is another matter. Other than knocking Britain down a peg, I've no real idea what they were after. My notion is that they thought the patriots had Britain on the ropes, and a little push from France would seal the deal, so the French weren't expecting a whole lot directly. Most gains would come from France being top dogs in the world. Once they got the French involved, though, America adopted the strategy of fighting not to lose, and once they won, they abandoned France as a world partner and persued relations with Britain. there's an island or two (St Kitts?) in the Caribbean which France/England are contending, which France is going to want, but sans either taking over territory or England, there's not going to be any turnover of rich sugar islands. Maybe France can get a port/region in India.

My overall guess is a moderate victory and quick peace. USA is born. Spain gets Gibraltar and Florida back. France expects favorable trade status from USA, and with this change of events, may get them. Overall, aside from Gibraltar and France not being bled dry, not much difference from OTL. What would be interesting is how an 'easy' independence affects the USA's start. Is the constitution the same? Gov't still set up the same?
The original goal of the armada was to divert British attention from Americas. They could of damaged British infrastructure but not succeeded in capturing any port city or major area. Once they put soldiers on land (soldiers who were starving and ill)they have a huge task of getting them out
 
I think that France besides of some minor territorial acquisition, perhaps, how have been mentioned above, some Caribe island would be demand and get from England, some kind of strong war indemnity...
Also, it's probably that this scenario would get how main consequence the butterflied of the fall of the French Monarchy.
 
The original goal of the armada was to divert British attention from Americas. They could of damaged British infrastructure but not succeeded in capturing any port city or major area. Once they put soldiers on land (soldiers who were starving and ill)they have a huge task of getting them out
the way they putzed around, OTL, has me agreeing that the purpose was more diversion than a sincere attempt at conquest. However, I don't share the view that landing troops automatically equals doom and gloom. the 'starving and ill' came about because of the half assed way France/Spain went about it. IF you POD this to a proper effort, the troops aren't starving and ill. As I said above (and previously in the 'can a landing succeed' threads), 'success' to me is defined as get in, get a peace, get out, not wholesale conquest. It works better if you have a stuart threat of regime change, which really isn't that viable this time around. But with a competent attempt, an invasion, quick peace is possible.
 

Lusitania

Donor
I think that France besides of some minor territorial acquisition, perhaps, how have been mentioned above, some Caribe island would be demand and get from England, some kind of strong war indemnity...
Also, it's probably that this scenario would get how main consequence the butterflied of the fall of the French Monarchy.

But I fail to see how France and Spain would extract those concessions from Britain. Are we talking about the 60 ships and 30,000 starving and sick soldiers that was to attack Britain? What do you think they would accomplish when they land and not all. They be lucky if half land
 
But I fail to see how France and Spain would extract those concessions from Britain. Are we talking about the 60 ships and 30,000 starving and sick soldiers that was to attack Britain? What do you think they would accomplish when they land and not all. They be lucky if half land

Given that the OP question its to have a successful armada and my speculation were based on this how a precondition for this scenario.
While some percentage of the expeditionary force would be sick and perhaps a greater would be starved... But I think that you would be underestimating the contemporary resilience besides that the surprise factor and the psychological impact that we would be to take account of this factor. Because the British will must be in a hurry for found and send a force able to match and defeat an enemy force of tens of thousand enemies, that are marching through England.
Given that, I don't think that the possibility that would be able to win one pair of battles and/or that while the invader wouldn't able to achieve a strategic victory but neither the British defenders to defeat or destroying them ...
 

Lusitania

Donor
Given that the OP question its to have a successful armada and my speculation were based on this how a precondition for this scenario.
While some percentage of the expeditionary force would be sick and perhaps a greater would be starved... But I think that you would be underestimating the contemporary resilience besides that the surprise factor and the psychological impact that we would be to take account of this factor. Because the British will must be in a hurry for found and send a force able to match and defeat an enemy force of tens of thousand enemies, that are marching through England.
Given that, I don't think that the possibility that would be able to win one pair of battles and/or that while the invader wouldn't able to achieve a strategic victory but neither the British defenders to defeat or destroying them ...
Yes they will destroy parts of Britain but they will not force her to as some have written give up her empire. It will force Britain to abandon 13 colonies yes to concentrate her forces on the Carribean and home islands. Peace will come earlier and Britain will dol exactly what it did iOTL just earlier and Spain and France be left in lurch.
 
Yes they will destroy parts of Britain but they will not force her to as some have written give up her empire. It will force Britain to abandon 13 colonies yes to concentrate her forces on the Carribean and home islands. Peace will come earlier and Britain will dol exactly what it did iOTL just earlier and Spain and France be left in lurch.

Well, I don't think that (in this scenario) Britain would have to 'give up' hers empire and, at least I, neither ever had stated it.
While agree that the concessions would be limited... But doubt that after a successful disembark and have forced to come a UN peace agreement Spain and France would allow being 'left in lurch' neither that they would sign a disadvantageous peace treaty.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Well, I don't think that (in this scenario) Britain would have to 'give up' hers empire and, at least I, neither ever had stated it.
While agree that the concessions would be limited... But doubt that after a successful disembark and have forced to come a UN peace agreement Spain and France would allow being 'left in lurch' neither that they would sign a disadvantageous peace treaty.
They were left in a lurch by the American who sided with Anglophone country over some papist country. The American negotiated directly with Britain a peace treaty regardless of the french. So no reason to think they not do so.

All Britain have to do is say it willing to sign peace treaty with 13 colonies it was then free to direct its resources against France and Spain.
 
OTL manner of winning independence allowed the US to leave France (especially) and Spain in the lurch. In this TTL, the US will not have won the war. France and Spain, which in OTL gave a major assist, in TTL will have won the war pretty much on their own. They will be the ones at the negotiating table first, not looking in from the outside as US screws them over.
 
All Britain have to do is say it willing to sign peace treaty with 13 colonies it was then free to direct its resources against France and Spain.
´
I think that you continue to miss a TTL key factor that difference to OTL ... a successful disembark and the presence of a true enemy force in British soil for first time from centuries ago.
 

Lusitania

Donor
´
I think that you continue to miss a TTL key factor that difference to OTL ... a successful disembark and the presence of a true enemy force in British soil for first time from centuries ago.
I do understand but you forget that the force disembarking are enough to cause damage only. The British can exert a naval force large enough to control the seas soon enough trapping them there.

What we talking about was the armada if 1779 was successful in attacking British isles and forcing Britain to negotiate table. You are right a successful attack could of done that by weakening the british hand in the 13 colonies.

But Britain would of done exactly same thing it did with the Americans. Sign a peace treaty with America and then deal with France and Spain independent of the ARW. The Americans did that in 1783 do why they not do that in 1779?
 
Would the British win if they decided to fight on? Yes I believe so, but this is a Britain where London haven't been threaten by foreign armies for a very long time. I think they will panick and sue for peace, if they don't they may very well lose London, before they can bring their militias up. I think the panick option would very likely be the correct one.


What more interesting are the aftermath, suddenly UK won't feel as safe anymore, we may see a greater focus on the army and UK becoming stronger on the continent and even expand their possession there, to create a permanent way to protect themselves against France.
 
a Britain that has just been damaged enough to come to the negotiating table is a Britain in massive turmoil. The populace is in shock, and the gov't is tumbling. The economy is in panic. It's not like every thing is hunky dory, just minus a few colonies. If they do decide to part ways with the 13 colonies, there's no real reason for them to continue on against France/Spain. They likely cough up Florida, and everyone declares peace. It's basically OTL results, except for the psychological blow of having it forced on them with a massive swoop. That right there is a huge difference, even without major land success by France.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Would the British win if they decided to fight on? Yes I believe so, but this is a Britain where London haven't been threaten by foreign armies for a very long time. I think they will panick and sue for peace, if they don't they may very well lose London, before they can bring their militias up. I think the panick option would very likely be the correct one.


What more interesting are the aftermath, suddenly UK won't feel as safe anymore, we may see a greater focus on the army and UK becoming stronger on the continent and even expand their possession there, to create a permanent way to protect themselves against France.
Unless you deciding to change the original objective of the armada it’s goal was very far from London.

Now as many have indicated and I stated they would pânic and would seal a peace treaty with USA and then pull all troops in 13 colonies and ships operating in area home.

So the original objective would be achieved peace but it would be with USA first then with others. France and Spain be no further ahead unless we talking about the war last much less but Spain also had an agreement that no peace betwee France and Britain unless Gibraltar given to Spain. So how will that be resolved and how will France and Spain fight Britain without Britain being occupied with 13 colonies?

So now once the foreign forces are dealt with the British bring all their military resources against the french and Spanish.

No these two countries would seek peace without any additional demands once peace between America and Britain was achieved
 

Lusitania

Donor
a Britain that has just been damaged enough to come to the negotiating table is a Britain in massive turmoil. The populace is in shock, and the gov't is tumbling. The economy is in panic. It's not like every thing is hunky dory, just minus a few colonies. If they do decide to part ways with the 13 colonies, there's no real reason for them to continue on against France/Spain. They likely cough up Florida, and everyone declares peace. It's basically OTL results, except for the psychological blow of having it forced on them with a massive swoop. That right there is a huge difference, even without major land success by France.
Yes I agree the phycological impact be huge and there be political repercussions as well as military ones after the fact.

The thing is that neither France nor Spain will gain anything additional. Other than those countries debts and losses in the war less.
 
I think that France besides of some minor territorial acquisition, perhaps, how have been mentioned above, some Caribe island would be demand and get from England, some kind of strong war indemnity...
Also, it's probably that this scenario would get how main consequence the butterflied of the fall of the French Monarchy.
I missed (or somehow glossed over it) earlier.

sans a massive victory, you're likely to see basically OTL. maybe a minor island acquisition (certainly not a highly profitable sugar island). Probably minimal, if any, indemnity.

With a successful invasion, things change, but it's got to be more than the shock of landing troops. Has to be a force which captures and holds territory and looks capable of doing damage.

Edit:
any sort of successful armada/assault on Britain will cause Britain to concentrate on protecting the homeland, which will lead to negotiations with the colonies, and open up the possibility of Spain/France attacking other British colonial possessions, but F/S only make gains IF they take them, or alternatively take direct British soil. I'd still lean toward a much earlier end to the war basically along OTL results.
 
Last edited:
Well, about the British reaction, I suppose that to have an enemy force marching through England heartland with no time, for to summon and gather the forces of professional regiments that would have necessary, where they would be needed, to fight and defeat the enemy forces... with the speed necessary to prevent them from continuing destroying the countryside, achieving a strategic objective and / or too entrenched and fortify themselves in such a way that cannot be expelled without huge losses.
Nevertheless, I think that would be very likely that the mere news of the disembarkation and the departure of an enemy army through the English countryside, could well cause the fall of the government and (later) of the admiralty responsible for such a defeat... Because, in my opinion, would be considered, the mere (and continuous) presence of the enemy army on the English land.
 
I think it's necessary to clarify and remember that, at least, Spain, fought this war against Britain with objectives clear as the means and the strategy to achieve it and thanks to the skillful governor B. Galvez.
Because Spain achieve to get almost all of its war objectives, that were conquered, were conserved and the peace treaty only recognized them. So their interests were not seen too much, harmed, as it could have been France, by the possible Anglo-Colonial agreement in the pace treaty.

Gálvez carried out a great military campaign, defeating to the British forces at Fort Bute, Baton Rouge, and Natchez in 1779.
The Battle of Baton Rouge, per example, was a Spanish victory which main consequence was to freed the lower Mississippi Valley of British forces and relieved the threat to then capital of Spanish Louisiana, New Orleans. Gálvez (the Spanish commandant) recaptured Mobile from the British...
The campaign ended with the reconquest of Pensacola, the British capital of West Florida. After this, in 1782, the Spanish forces captured, the British naval base in Nassau in the Bahamas.
Besides that, I think that the successful Spanish campaign against the British forces even that was having a key importance in favor of the thirteen colonies' cause, usually its forgotten and/or underestimated.
Also, in consequence, usually its forgotten, too, the consequences that would have the lack of Spain (share in the financing to the colonials) participation in the war and/or a British victory that beside of given to the Royal Navy additional ports.
Surely would have given additional ports and freed the British forces in Florida.... but more importantly, its that would have given to Britain the chance to attack and would be able to get reforced ad supplied from a land base in Florida: the southern american colonies and mainly the control of the Mississippi (lower) Valley or at least the effective neutralization of New Orleans.
Because if Britain would have achieved these goals, then I think that the whole course of the thirteen colonies' independence war would be affected and more than probably that would be affected.
 
Last edited:
Top