Successful Armada of 1779

So in 1779 France and Spain were within eyesight of the British Isles, but miscommunication put and end to the expedition. Let’s say the Armada is successful and marches on London. What does a Treaty look like. I’d assume the war would end and the Americans would be granted independence. I’m most colonies would go to France and Spain, but would we see a full Jacobite restoration or a partial one? And if they are restored would they even be able to stay on the throne?
 
This one came closer than the more famous one of 1588, so I'm surprised the issue hasn't been addressed here earlier. That said, I really have no clue what would have happened.
 
1779 Armada Threads are almost the same: The UK rolls over and France and Spain win just like that.

There are 130,000 English militia to deal with and the Royal Government would withdraw from the Colonies to fight the French and Spanish.
 
1779 Armada Threads are almost the same: The UK rolls over and France and Spain win just like that.

There are 130,000 English militia to deal with and the Royal Government would withdraw from the Colonies to fight the French and Spanish.
Yes, but if it were victorious could the Jacobites be restored or partially restored, maybe if there was a diversion to Scotland or Ireland?
 
So in 1779 France and Spain were within eyesight of the British Isles, but miscommunication put and end to the expedition. Let’s say the Armada is successful and marches on London. What does a Treaty look like. I’d assume the war would end and the Americans would be granted independence. I’m most colonies would go to France and Spain, but would we see a full Jacobite restoration or a partial one? And if they are restored would they even be able to stay on the throne?
The idea of a full Jacobite restoration isn't practical by 1779 and was abandoned from the Seven Years War onwards.

However an independent Kingdom of Ireland would be very likely, though the question would be if the Stuarts would accept the crown of Ireland or if it would go to a cadet branch of the Bourbons as during the Seven Years War the French also wanted to create an independent Ireland should they succeed in invading Britain but upon learning of this Charles Stuart angrily insisted that he wanted to be king of Great Britain and Ireland, after which the French told the Dutch they had no intention of restoring Charles to the British throne.
 
The idea of a full Jacobite restoration isn't practical by 1779 and the idea was abandoned from the Seven Years War onwards, however an independent Kingdom of Ireland would be very likely, though the question would be if the Stuarts would accept the crown of Ireland or if it would go to a cadet branch of the Bourbons as during the Seven Years War the French also wanted to create an independent Ireland should they succeed in invading Britain however upon learning of this Charles Stuart angrily insisted that he wanted to be king of Great Britain and Ireland, after which the French told the Dutch they had no intention of restoring Charles to the British throne.
I thought that by 1779 a full restoration would be impractical. Would the Irish accept a Roman Catholic Frenchman on the throne though. I’m assuming a lot of the nobles would flee or rebel. I think by this time Jacobitsm was dead almost everywhere but Ireland and in most of Scotland.
 
I thought that by 1779 a full restoration would be impractical. Would the Irish accept a Roman Catholic Frenchman on the throne though. I’m assuming a lot of the nobles would flee or rebel. I think by this time Jacobitsm was dead almost everywhere but Ireland and in most of Scotland.
The Irish Catholics who made up the vast majority of Ireland's population certainly would greet the French as liberators, especially given how severe the Penal Laws discriminating against them were, Ulster would probably rebel though. The majority of the Anglo-Irish aristocracy would probably flee back to Britain.
 
Yes, but if it were victorious could the Jacobites be restored or partially restored, maybe if there was a diversion to Scotland or Ireland?

The idea of a full Jacobite restoration isn't practical by 1779 and was abandoned from the Seven Years War onwards.

However an independent Kingdom of Ireland would be very likely, though the question would be if the Stuarts would accept the crown of Ireland or if it would go to a cadet branch of the Bourbons as during the Seven Years War the French also wanted to create an independent Ireland should they succeed in invading Britain but upon learning of this Charles Stuart angrily insisted that he wanted to be king of Great Britain and Ireland, after which the French told the Dutch they had no intention of restoring Charles to the British throne.

I thought that by 1779 a full restoration would be impractical. Would the Irish accept a Roman Catholic Frenchman on the throne though. I’m assuming a lot of the nobles would flee or rebel. I think by this time Jacobitsm was dead almost everywhere but Ireland and in most of Scotland.

I'm with Von Tyrconnell. The Jacobite restoration is not really a thing at this point. France support of them had long since dry up.

Ireland is far more likely to fall under said cadet branch of the Bourbons.

I doubt anything with Scotland.
 

Lusitania

Donor
I am little confused as to the the number of ships and also number of men who can land on British soil.

Any armada will be met by British navy. Using regular sea battle from period I would expect if the British lost they loose 1/2 to 2/3 of their navy before withdrawing. The French-spanish armada would of lost at least equal amount maybe less ships.

How many troops can it land and what British forces will they meet on the isles?

British merchant fleet was twice to 3 times larger than the combined Spanish and french merchant fleet which would of been included in the armada. The British could regroup and gather a fleet equal to the armada within 3-6 months.

So how many troops can the Spanish / french put on shore before they loose control of the seas again?
 
So how many troops can the Spanish / french put on shore before they loose control of the seas again?

The idea that "Britannia rules the waves" simply wasn't true until the Napoleonic Wars. While the British certainly had the upper hand they certainly didn't dominate the seas with the same impunity as they did after Trafalgar. Remember, the most crucial naval battle of the Revolutionary War at least for the US theater, Chesapeake Roads, was a British defeat strategically, though tactically indecisive. And a French army landing on Great Britain means that the Royal Navy almost definitely loses Portsmouth/Spithead, and likely the Nore and other naval bases. Reprovisioning, refitting, and repairs all become exponentially harder to coordinate on a fleetwide level, while the French can simply destroy most of the facilities if they do not want to risk their recapture. Merchant ships won't be much help as by this point there was enough technical difference between merchantmen and men of war to make it very difficult to convert a merchant fleet on the fly. Furthermore, either way, they will suffer the major economic drawback of that fleet being heavily damaged.

Now, even with this being the case, the British have the advantage of numbers and of freindly terrain in the island as a whole, but the militia really, IMO, can't be assembled in time to, say, relieve an attack on London. Thus, I imagine the British will sue for peace, with Parliament panicking and/or deciding that the costs of war outweigh the cost of making peace. Terms IMO would include some or all of the following, ordered from most to least likely, though not with any particular vigor.

1. GB recognizes the US with borders roughly akin to OTL, though maybe there is some dispute over the Ohio Valley.
2. Ireland is released as a sovereign state under a Bourbon king with the understanding that the King of Ireland may never inherit the French throne or vice versa. France in exchange formally disavows its support for the Jacobin pretenders.
3. GB returns Menorca to Spain. I find this likelier than a return of both Menorca and Gibraltar which wouldn't happen unless either the Franco-Spanish army decisively defeated a large portion of the British Militia, attacked and took London, or both.
4. GB cedes various Caribbean territories to Spain, France, and/or the UP.
5. GB returns Quebec to France
6. Something in India???
 

Lusitania

Donor
The idea that "Britannia rules the waves" simply wasn't true until the Napoleonic Wars. While the British certainly had the upper hand they certainly didn't dominate the seas with the same impunity as they did after Trafalgar. Remember, the most crucial naval battle of the Revolutionary War at least for the US theater, Chesapeake Roads, was a British defeat strategically, though tactically indecisive. And a French army landing on Great Britain means that the Royal Navy almost definitely loses Portsmouth/Spithead, and likely the Nore and other naval bases. Reprovisioning, refitting, and repairs all become exponentially harder to coordinate on a fleetwide level, while the French can simply destroy most of the facilities if they do not want to risk their recapture. Merchant ships won't be much help as by this point there was enough technical difference between merchantmen and men of war to make it very difficult to convert a merchant fleet on the fly. Furthermore, either way, they will suffer the major economic drawback of that fleet being heavily damaged.

Now, even with this being the case, the British have the advantage of numbers and of freindly terrain in the island as a whole, but the militia really, IMO, can't be assembled in time to, say, relieve an attack on London. Thus, I imagine the British will sue for peace, with Parliament panicking and/or deciding that the costs of war outweigh the cost of making peace. Terms IMO would include some or all of the following, ordered from most to least likely, though not with any particular vigor.

1. GB recognizes the US with borders roughly akin to OTL, though maybe there is some dispute over the Ohio Valley.
2. Ireland is released as a sovereign state under a Bourbon king with the understanding that the King of Ireland may never inherit the French throne or vice versa. France in exchange formally disavows its support for the Jacobin pretenders.
3. GB returns Menorca to Spain. I find this likelier than a return of both Menorca and Gibraltar which wouldn't happen unless either the Franco-Spanish army decisively defeated a large portion of the British Militia, attacked and took London, or both.
4. GB cedes various Caribbean territories to Spain, France, and/or the UP.
5. GB returns Quebec to France
6. Something in India???


I went and read a little on the Armada after your response and do think it could of ended the war earlier by forcing the British to pull more ships to defend the British isles. The armada did outnumber the home fleet by a margin of 3-1 that being said if the French were able to attack their objective it would be questionable if they could take it. They could damage British naval yards but actually capture and hold anything of value I doubt it. The armada was in dire straights, with men suffering of hunger and disease not the best for fighting men.

But you are right some additional concessions could of been required but st same time it would of resulted in a secound or third clash and defeat in the English Channel to get all those extra concessions.
 
1. GB recognizes the US with borders roughly akin to OTL, though maybe there is some dispute over the Ohio Valley.
2. Ireland is released as a sovereign state under a Bourbon king with the understanding that the King of Ireland may never inherit the French throne or vice versa. France in exchange formally disavows its support for the Jacobin pretenders.
3. GB returns Menorca to Spain. I find this likelier than a return of both Menorca and Gibraltar which wouldn't happen unless either the Franco-Spanish army decisively defeated a large portion of the British Militia, attacked and took London, or both.
4. GB cedes various Caribbean territories to Spain, France, and/or the UP.
5. GB returns Quebec to France
6. Something in India???

I sort of doubt France would take Quebec back. I mean, yes, it would be a very nice to have back, but it may just alienated the Americans into a very ealry special relationship with GB.
 

Lusitania

Donor
I sort of doubt France would take Quebec back. I mean, yes, it would be a very nice to have back, but it may just alienated the Americans into a very ealry special relationship with GB.
The French wanted Carribean and the sugar which was very profitable not New France.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Hence why I placed it so lo in the list of possibilities.
Yes and why the British would sacrifice the 13 colonies to retain them. So we could expect a continued battle with 13 colonies almost ignored and British navy concentrating on the Carribean. But the flip side was that the French / Spanish Armada of 60+ ship-of-the-line was the entire french/spanish fleet where 20+ Home fleet was not the entire British fleet. So the ability of the French/Spanish to do everything they did in the ARW and still do the armada successful is not possible. They only had so much resources. Same with British.
 
There's success and then there's SUCCESS. It's going to take a massive victory to dismantle the British empire, and that's what it would be if you take North America, the Carribean, Minorca, and Ireland.

Far more likely is that France/Spain get in and get out with a moderate peace OR they go for broke and end up bogged down in a big morass. Either way, the USA is born.

Spain wanted Florida and Gibraltar back. Both are doable. Not sure how much they were anxious for Minorca, but I'm thinking Britain wants that more than Gibraltar. The Falklands are also a small nugget that Spain is going to want.

France is another matter. Other than knocking Britain down a peg, I've no real idea what they were after. My notion is that they thought the patriots had Britain on the ropes, and a little push from France would seal the deal, so the French weren't expecting a whole lot directly. Most gains would come from France being top dogs in the world. Once they got the French involved, though, America adopted the strategy of fighting not to lose, and once they won, they abandoned France as a world partner and persued relations with Britain. there's an island or two (St Kitts?) in the Caribbean which France/England are contending, which France is going to want, but sans either taking over territory or England, there's not going to be any turnover of rich sugar islands. Maybe France can get a port/region in India.

My overall guess is a moderate victory and quick peace. USA is born. Spain gets Gibraltar and Florida back. France expects favorable trade status from USA, and with this change of events, may get them. Overall, aside from Gibraltar and France not being bled dry, not much difference from OTL. What would be interesting is how an 'easy' independence affects the USA's start. Is the constitution the same? Gov't still set up the same?
 
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