Succesful Warsaw Uprising

randomkeith

Banned
What is the Warsaw Uprising was sucessfull??????

With the Red Army stalled at the Vistula, what if instead of waiting there Polish brigades of the Red Army entered Poland and helped the uprising in Warsaw. (Polish units did cross the river but were massacared by the germans, im envisiging a much more successful campaign here)

I believe their was even talk of British Paratroopers being dropped into Warsaw to support the Uprising.

What if the Uprising was sucessful????

Could it ever be????


Europe with an independant Poland????????
 
What you need is for the Soviet Advance to continue. This might be sticky, there are rumors Stalin ordered the offensive halted so the Poles would burn themselves out, but wear down the Nazis. This also solidified his control of Poland. an interesting tidbit is that the NKVD arrested Home Army soldiers, and a large percentage of allied aircraft losses were to Sovier Anti-aircraft batteries. Without some aid, the uprising would, unfortunatly fail. But if they hold on long enough, someone may convince Stalin to attack, just to save face. Not sure how much would change, however.
 

randomkeith

Banned
HHHMMMM maybe a scenario where by the Poles don't uprise against the Germans but rather the Russians soon after the end of the war???????????? say mid 1946
 
HHHMMMM maybe a scenario where by the Poles don't uprise against the Germans but rather the Russians soon after the end of the war???????????? say mid 1946

Worse. Stalin is establishing control. The Soviets are worn out by the war, but they won, and have hundreds of thousands of soldiers sitting around in Germany, Poland, and everything else that became the Warsaw Pact. The USSR is on the upswing towards it's peak in terms of power, whereas the Nazis were collapsing in 1944. And the western allies probably don't have the will to do this (although some success might change their minds) and they are not immediatly accessable. Finally, the Home Army is gone, betwee the rising and Soviet Purges. This would be another Budapest or Prague.
 
One thing that comes to mind is why germans even bothered to waste their military resources to fight the Warsaw Uprising, knowing that sooner or later Russians will launch the next offensive and they will be needing all they strength.

Even with the pressure from Nazi Leaders to destroy Warsaw (revenge the Uprising), why didn't the local german commanders did the same what many commanders in Western Front did: withdraw peacefully and describe it as "forced backwards, did many successful counter-attacks, etc".

Full strength Polish home army would have been a much more difficult for Stalin to destroy, and any such attempt would have weakened Stalin's relationship with Western Powers -- which would have been a good thing for Nazis.


_
 

randomkeith

Banned
Full strength Polish home army would have been a much more difficult for Stalin to destroy, and any such attempt would have weakened Stalin's relationship with Western Powers -- which would have been a good thing for Nazis.


_[/quote]


That makes a lot more scence, exactly why bother, I think that by that time Hitler and his staff were that out of touch with reality that it was just about revenge. It made no strategical scence to fight the Warsaw uprising with the reds knocking on the door.
 

Korwar

Banned
Even with the pressure from Nazi Leaders to destroy Warsaw (revenge the Uprising), why didn't the local german commanders did the same what many commanders in Western Front did: withdraw peacefully and describe it as "forced backwards, did many successful counter-attacks, etc".
On West Front they fought their rivals, in East they fought against what they considered "racial enemies".
 
Originally posted by alephh
One thing that comes to mind is why germans even bothered to waste their military resources to fight the Warsaw Uprising, knowing that sooner or later Russians will launch the next offensive and they will be needing all they strength.
Even with the pressure from Nazi Leaders to destroy Warsaw (revenge the Uprising), why didn't the local german commanders did the same what many commanders in Western Front did: withdraw peacefully and describe it as "forced backwards, did many successful counter-attacks, etc".
Full strength Polish home army would have been a much more difficult for Stalin to destroy, and any such attempt would have weakened Stalin's relationship with Western Powers -- which would have been a good thing for Nazis.

Germans fought the Warsaw Uprising because they had no other choice. Leaving Warsaw with its bridges in Polish hands would have made a big fat hole in German defense line on Vistula. Every commander who even suggested an action like that would be considered traitor or insane. Besides, when the Uprising started, Germans still fought east from Vistula.
The only reason Germans might have done it was the hope Soviets and Poles start fighting each other. However, Soviets would have surely won (even if after long fighting and with heavy casualties) and they would have had a very good foothold on western side of Vistule. Besides, there was no guarantee that Poles and Soviets would jump to each other throats before dealing with Germans. Polish Home Army could keep control of Warsaw and let Red Army pass or share its control with communist Polish Army. Anyway, the scenario you suggest is "the best case" scenario fo r the Home Army - but why should Germans help Polish resistance? Home Army was very hostile towards Germans.
Actually, today many Poles believe that Warsaw Uprising was a tragic mistake made by Polish resistance commanders. They underestimated the Germans, overestimated Western infloence on Soviet Union and coutned on Soviet help. Poles knew perfectly well, they couldn't liberate AND hold Warsaw all by themselves. They hoped that by helping Soviets cross the Vistula and liberating Polish capital they would strenghten the position of Polish goverment in exile and Home Army.
 
Germans fought the Warsaw Uprising because they had no other choice. Leaving Warsaw with its bridges in Polish hands would have made a big fat hole in German defense line on Vistula. Every commander who even suggested an action like that would be considered traitor or insane. Besides, when the Uprising started, Germans still fought east from Vistula.
The only reason Germans might have done it was the hope Soviets and Poles start fighting each other. However, Soviets would have surely won (even if after long fighting and with heavy casualties) and they would have had a very good foothold on western side of Vistule. Besides, there was no guarantee that Poles and Soviets would jump to each other throats before dealing with Germans. Polish Home Army could keep control of Warsaw and let Red Army pass or share its control with communist Polish Army. Anyway, the scenario you suggest is "the best case" scenario fo r the Home Army - but why should Germans help Polish resistance? Home Army was very hostile towards Germans.
Actually, today many Poles believe that Warsaw Uprising was a tragic mistake made by Polish resistance commanders. They underestimated the Germans, overestimated Western infloence on Soviet Union and coutned on Soviet help. Poles knew perfectly well, they couldn't liberate AND hold Warsaw all by themselves. They hoped that by helping Soviets cross the Vistula and liberating Polish capital they would strenghten the position of Polish goverment in exile and Home Army.

Actually the Soviets gained further bridgeheads North and South of the city, which were more interesting to them since they did not pass through an extensive built-up area whose streets were clogged with wreckage. This makes holding Warsaw for the river bridges a bit less of an argument for the Germans.
OTOH it makes an argument for the Soviets _not_ to get involved in urban fighting.
 

Markus

Banned
What is the Warsaw Uprising was sucessfull??????

Not in the long run. Stalin realizes a lot of attention is paid by the west, so he orders the Red Army to do everything in their power to help the AK. Result: AK and RA win->western attention turns elsewhere->Stalin slowely but steadily finishes off the AK. It´ll take more time, but he will get it done.
 
The Soviets had just been on a major offensive. They had to stop and sort out the rear when the rising happened. The real issue is when the rising was raging why only British planes where dropping Weapons and Supplies? The Soviets didn't need to have troops on the ground. All they needed to do was keep dropping food and weapons for the Polish Home Army or at least allow RAF units the chance to land in SU airstrips. This alone would give massive help to the Polish Home Army.

More interesting for the Rising is what if as planned the Polish Independent Parachute Brigade parachutes into Warsaw to assist the Home Guard? If they dropped with British officers they could help liaison with the Soviets.


However the most important question is simply.

Lets say the Poles win and the Germans are drive out. What stops Stalin just like in OTL Murdering these Brave Poles? The Soviets are all around and Britain and the US can't help. Stalin wouldn't let them threaten him in the future.
 
Originally posted by Michele
Actually the Soviets gained further bridgeheads North and South of the city, which were more interesting to them since they did not pass through an extensive built-up area whose streets were clogged with wreckage. This makes holding Warsaw for the river bridges a bit less of an argument for the Germans. OTOH it makes an argument for the Soviets _not_ to get involved in urban fighting.

If Germans had withdrawn from Warsaw, as alephh suggested, the streets would have been clear. A town is an excellent bridgehead - it is easy to defend against counterattacks, it already has bridges and roads. Even if Germans had blown bridges away before withdrawing, it is easier to rebuild them than build them from scratch.

Originally posted by OperationGreen
More interesting for the Rising is what if as planned the Polish Independent Parachute Brigade parachutes into Warsaw to assist the Home Guard? If they dropped with British officers they could help liaison with the Soviets

Polish paras in Warsaw? No way. Nobody would have sent a big flock of slow cargo planes and bombers with gliders, without any fighter escort (too far) flying over whole Germany or German occupied territories. It would be a massacre. Besides, where were the Poles supposed to land? On Warsaw roofs? Paratroopers need a nice big field to safely land nad regroup.
As far as British liaison officers, you're right. Poland had very well organized resistance with excellent intelligence service, extremely useful to the Allies. British liaison mission (like in Yugoslavia) would be relatively safe and could do a lot of good for Poles and British. However, for some unknown reasons, British goverment send its first mission to Poland in December 1944. It was called "Frestone".
 
If Germans had withdrawn from Warsaw, as alephh suggested, the streets would have been clear. A town is an excellent bridgehead - it is easy to defend against counterattacks, it already has bridges and roads. Even if Germans had blown bridges away before withdrawing, it is easier to rebuild them than build them from scratch.

Withdrawal does not rule out demolition, and demolishing buildings on the accesses to the bridges is exactly what the Germans did, for instance, in Florence (from where they withdrew without a fight in the city).
And yes, rebuilding permanent bridges on sites where bridges have existed is easier. But here we're not talking about permanent, railway bridges, at least not immediately; pontoon bridges are good enough for the purposes achievable before winter.
 

Korwar

Banned
However, for some unknown reasons, British goverment send its first mission to Poland in December 1944.
I suggest searching for sources on amount of support in ammo, funds and supplies given to Yugoslavian partisans compared to that given to Poles by the British.
A very 'interesting' reading.
 
Originaly posted by Michele
Withdrawal does not rule out demolition, and demolishing buildings on the accesses to the bridges is exactly what the Germans did, for instance, in Florence (from where they withdrew without a fight in the city).
And yes, rebuilding permanent bridges on sites where bridges have existed is easier. But here we're not talking about permanent, railway bridges, at least not immediately; pontoon bridges are good enough for the purposes achievable before winter.
Well, but it is also easier to clear and/or repair an already existing street than build a totally new road. Also notice one thing. If Germans left Warsaw, their forces blocking the town to keep Soviets from breaking out would have had to spend winter in open field, while Soviets and Poles have relatively untouched town with full infrastructure. Which army would have been in better condition in spring? Besides, even if Soviets had those bridgeheads, there was no reason to give them another one, even for political reasons. Hitler would have never accepted that. He was obsessed with fortresses.
 
Well, but it is also easier to clear and/or repair an already existing street than build a totally new road. Also notice one thing. If Germans left Warsaw, their forces blocking the town to keep Soviets from breaking out would have had to spend winter in open field, while Soviets and Poles have relatively untouched town with full infrastructure. Which army would have been in better condition in spring? Besides, even if Soviets had those bridgeheads, there was no reason to give them another one, even for political reasons. Hitler would have never accepted that. He was obsessed with fortresses.

I'm not advocating that the Germans should have abandoned Warsaw. What I'm saying is that it was less interesting for the Soviets than some might think.
 
Originaly posted by Michele
I'm not advocating that the Germans should have abandoned Warsaw. What I'm saying is that it was less interesting for the Soviets than some might think.
I don't agree. From purely military point of view capturing/liberating Warsaw would have been very reasonable. Together with other bridgeheads it would have meant breaking of German defense on Vistula line. And the next big river on Soviets' way west was Oder - very close to Berlin.
But Stalin decided that his political reasons were more important and did pretty much everything he could to cut off Poles from any help.
 
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