sub-Saharan African War

MacCaulay

Banned
So...just hear me out. I've got this half-baked idea, and I just can't let it go. It started with watching a film, The Last King of Scotland, when Forrest Whitaker as Idi Amin mentions that he wants to "kick the Boers off the continent."

Now, I know Idi Amin was a big Pan-Africanist for awhile before he soured his whole deal and got exiled for picking a fight with other Africans. But, let's suppose he didn't. Let's suppose that instead of going after Kenya he (or someone else more logical) had decided to get a lot more of the media spotlight by trying to put together some sort of Pan-African alliance in an attempt to confront South Africa both politically and militarily the way the Arab states had with Israel.

And perhaps...sometime between 1970 and 1980, there was general attempt by some united force of African countries to place what they consider to be a "friendly" government in power in South Africa.

How is this possible, and what are your opinions on it's possible outcomes?
 
I don't see this working, if the various post independence Frontline states had the capacity to do much more than they did already, I think they would have done so. By this I mean the Frontline states (the ones bordering SA or Rhodesia before it became Zimbabwe) already openly assisted anti Apartheid groups in terms of providing safe havens, material assistance and moral/political support.

I don't think they had the resources (financial or military) to engage their countries in open war with SA for the purposes of regime change. I don't think that they would have been provided with enough material support by their patrons/sponsors either. Countries like Uganda, Ethiopia or any other Pan African leaning states didn't have the capacity either, plus they were really far away.

Perhaps though you could try and heat up the proxy wars in Angola/Mozambique? Although the former was already pretty dammed hot - with SA and Cuban forces engaging in direct combat. I don't think that the Soviets or Cubans would have had the ability to do the same in Angola, due to the logistics issue. Maybe have a POD where the South Africans suffer far greater losses in Angola in the 1970s- that could destabilise the regime perhaps - make the control of Namibia really difficult, and also reduce SA's ability to support Rhodesia or the RENAMO forces in Mozambique?
 
A civil war in South Africa would weaken the regime enough for change. The South African military, being tied down at home, would be forced to cede involvement in Angola and Namibia completely (unless the US became involved, which is unlikely--such a war would be even more unpopular than Vietnam and would further inflame the civil rights issues already present at home in OTL).

Zambia and Mozambique are already Soviet clients during this era, so have the Soviets professionalize the local military establishments of both countries. Logistics are still a problem but manageable (especially with Mozambique on board--that brings sealift into the picture).

Boost the ANC (and maybe Inkata and a few others, to keep one faction from becoming too strong) and encourage more widespread attacks on civilian targets. The white government, while having the skill and technology to fight the guerillas, doesn't have the numbers in the long run, and not all factions are going to agree to the violent struggle. Eventually South Africa's neighbors will feel 'compelled' to step in.
 
It's been denied, but the US was supposedly involved in Angola, financing UNITA. Obviously any formal military intervention was out of the question though. The Cubans and Soviets did try to professionalize Angola's armed forces and achieved this to an extent, as did the Chinese and Tanzanians in Mozambique.

South Africa and indeed Rhodesia, both went to great lengths to keep both Angola and Mozambique destabilised, mainly to prevent any possible coalition trying to drive them into the sea. A Civil War in South Africa was impossible as there was no good way to regularly infiltrate weapons and guerrillas into the country, Namibia was pretty much locked down and the other border areas too secure. The ANC would have loved to start one, but without war materiel, what were they to do?
 
We'd need a POD that would bring Mozambique more firmly into the Soviet sphere (as opposed to the Chinese sphere; China in the 1970's doesn't have the means to support a client state this far from its borders). With Mozambique as an even stronger Soviet ally post-Portuguese departure, ANC can be supplied via a country that has both a seaport and a common border with South Africa. In return, the Soviets get an enhanced ability to project power into the Indian Ocean via basing rights in Maputo and (once a friendly regime is installed) access to South Africa's mineral wealth.

To pull this off, maybe earlier Soviet involvement in FRELIMO (kicking off the armed independence struggle as early as 1961) and keep Mondlane as opposed to Machel in charge of FRELIMO and ultimately Mozambique. Mondlane is a more pragmatic leader and would probably welcome greater Soviet aid against Portugal. The longer and more dependent upon Soviet aid the anti-Portugal movement is, the further into the Soviet sphere the country will be drawn and subsequently it will become a better supply and training area for ANC and other South African factions.
 
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