Stupid Luck and Happenstance, Thread II
- Thread starter Peabody-Martini
- Start date
With the tensions in the United States all ready at a high fever pitch over domestic issues, the last thing that is needed is for a certain Grand Admiral to taunt the USN, this is going to spur more development in both encryption technology and encryption breaking technology.
President Truman with his apparent ability to get ahead of his intelligence analysts, is going to figure out what Canada is up to and understand the reasoning for it.
This might prod Truman to take action to stop the violence in the South.
President Truman with his apparent ability to get ahead of his intelligence analysts, is going to figure out what Canada is up to and understand the reasoning for it.
This might prod Truman to take action to stop the violence in the South.
Can’t imagine anyone on the German side being impressed with Schmidt’s little stunt. I’m not sure it will be common knowledge nor news of it released for public consumption.
There is a very great danger that this will be used to again whip up anti-German fervour or worse (for international relations at least) used as a catalyst to unite America against the arrogant external, existential threat.
The last thing Germany wants or needs is to antagonize a nation with the US’s potential nor the potential market. All the effort spent on repairing relations is completely nullified by this stunt.
It seems simply arrogant grand standing and as others have commented likely to get a certain admiral being forced to retire.
Emil for one will have a cow, as will the Chancellor, the Reichstag, not to mention the Emperor.
There is a very great danger that this will be used to again whip up anti-German fervour or worse (for international relations at least) used as a catalyst to unite America against the arrogant external, existential threat.
The last thing Germany wants or needs is to antagonize a nation with the US’s potential nor the potential market. All the effort spent on repairing relations is completely nullified by this stunt.
It seems simply arrogant grand standing and as others have commented likely to get a certain admiral being forced to retire.
Emil for one will have a cow, as will the Chancellor, the Reichstag, not to mention the Emperor.
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Totaly agree here A.Morgan, that stunt was totaly out of caracter for a seasoned person with interest in the intel side of things. Makes for good reading and a chuckel. But the whole von Schmidt shtick of "always beeing much better then every one else, or they forget everything I did" is geting old.
We did not realy see anything like resentment against Jews in decades, shure it could be there, and his while "inferiority complex" is getting old.
On the other hand, a telegram in the actual coding (or at least one that was only recently discarded) to Heinlein would Imo have been as shocking to him, but not blow as much smoke as what has happened. Yes Germany should have the BALL sometimes, but giving it in this fashion seems forced.
As to Truman, does he know? He can only deduct from what information he gets and that may be colored to what his analysts want it to be. Because he does not have the time or reasonn to get the raw data. Also as others have implied, foreign adventures are a "good" thing to shore up internal problems. At least in the short run. So how self centered are the USA to try something to plaster over internal problems...
One could say, that Germany is doing it also with its engagement in to LON... as long as they have relativley short and successful operations that benefit its global standing and industry I can see them helping domesticaly as well.
Also I think I remember that the American industry is not that happy with what happens in Mexico, they I think hoped to create a captive market, but may get a stable country with ties to Europe...
Another thin that would be great to know is, how is the economic integration of Europe going along?
We did not realy see anything like resentment against Jews in decades, shure it could be there, and his while "inferiority complex" is getting old.
On the other hand, a telegram in the actual coding (or at least one that was only recently discarded) to Heinlein would Imo have been as shocking to him, but not blow as much smoke as what has happened. Yes Germany should have the BALL sometimes, but giving it in this fashion seems forced.
On the taunting I totaly agree, but also think, that the German aptitude for breaking codes is well enough known that the race to create new codes and break the ones of others is well enough underway. What we do not know right now, is how the computerisation of the process is. Germany adopted computers early but the others?
As to Truman, does he know? He can only deduct from what information he gets and that may be colored to what his analysts want it to be. Because he does not have the time or reasonn to get the raw data. Also as others have implied, foreign adventures are a "good" thing to shore up internal problems. At least in the short run. So how self centered are the USA to try something to plaster over internal problems...
One could say, that Germany is doing it also with its engagement in to LON... as long as they have relativley short and successful operations that benefit its global standing and industry I can see them helping domesticaly as well.
Also I think I remember that the American industry is not that happy with what happens in Mexico, they I think hoped to create a captive market, but may get a stable country with ties to Europe...
Another thin that would be great to know is, how is the economic integration of Europe going along?
It's more complicated than that. If you are sure you are going to be going to go to war with another power or actively want to go to war with them then it is in your interest to conceal as much of your capabilities as possible and have them underestimate you. This prevents them from putting in the necessary effort and makes your job easier in the longer term. On the other hand if you really don't want to go to war with another Power then you have to show off a bit and convince them you really have your shit together. Deterrence in strategic parlance.
Part 77, Chapter 1161
Chapter One Thousand One Hundred Sixty-One
8th January 1956
Washington D.C.
The year had not gotten off to a great start, the Department of Defense had spent a colossal amount of money upgrading Signal Intelligence over the prior two years and then the Norfolk prank had happened, making them all look like idiots. It had taken the eggheads at MIT several days to figure out how it must have been done and who was at fault. The breach in security that had enabled someone to play music over the intercom had not been caused by a German Admiral on the wrong side of the Atlantic, thousands of miles away. It had been caused by the U.S. Navy itself. The base at Norfolk had recently switched to an automatic switchboard that had been taken over remotely and that had given whoever had done it control of the intercom as well. Anyone in North America with the right equipment and access to a phone line could have done it.
Truman had almost picked up the phone and called the German Embassy to complain then realized he would be making a mistake. Admiral von Schmidt was rumored to be on his way out according to the CIA, he had reached the peak of his career and while he was loved as hero by the public, that did not extend to his superiors in the German High Command or the Reichstag. The Admiral was looking down the barrel of retirement in the very near future after spending a career with a chip on his shoulder and showing the world exactly how brilliant he was. The Norfolk prank was probably going to be his last hurrah. He had found a clever way to exploit a security vulnerability that bypassed every countermeasure the NSA and Defense had put in place against people like him. If anyone said anything, he could point to how difficult it would be to produce evidence that proved that it really had been him. All it would take is Truman picking up the phone and making that complaint and Jacob von Schmidt would be able to go out on a high note. Truman would be playing into the Admiral’s hands the way that so many others had in the past.
However, none of that explained the Admiral’s interest in the Captain of the Enterprise. The Captain of the Aircraft Carrier was just as bewildered by that as anyone else.
Berlin
It was not as if Kiki hadn’t been warned that this would happen. A few days earlier, Frau Nagler had passed away during the night. Hardly a surprise considering how old she was, still Kiki found herself upset over it no matter how much she tried to rationalize it. However, it wasn’t until she went to the service that was held in the hospital chapel that she discovered that Frau Nagler really did have no one. It had just been Kiki, a couple of the other patients and one of the janitors.
Frau Nagler had mentioned a son that she’d had, who had died in the First World War as well one older and one younger brother. It had taken several phone calls, but Kiki had learned that Frau Nagler’s brother had a daughter who had lived in Oranienburg but had died almost two decades earlier. It was that woman’s daughter who Kiki had talked to over the phone who had not been exactly thrilled to get a call regarding a great aunt she didn’t know from a volunteer at the hospital. Most of the call had involved Kiki having to convince her that it wasn’t a scam. The woman had stated flatly that she wasn’t interested in anything that might cost her money before she had hung up.
If there had been any expenses, Kiki would have gladly payed them. She felt she owed Frau Nagler that much. It had been a day later that Kiki had learned that like all other unclaimed remains in the hospital, Frau Nagler had been cremated and her ashes were to be placed in storage until someone claimed them. Something that didn’t sit right with Kiki, but she didn’t have the first clue about what could be done.
Taiwan
No sooner than they had made it to Taiwan, the Fleet had sent orders that they would take on fresh supplies, munitions and prepare put back to sea again. Christoph had been told that the Lieutenant who was to take over command of the SMS Esel had come down with malaria and wouldn’t be available. What that had meant was that Christoph had been informed that a message had been sent to Wunsdorf informing them of his situation and that a new Officer would be sent as soon as they got word back. Christoph knew how that worked, in the South Seas they could easily die of old age waiting for an answer back. The alternative was that Christoph remain in charge of the Esel, just in the capacity of an Acting Line Officer. The whole thing struck him as the Brass in Taiwan making it up as they went along, and he figured that as soon as Wunsdorf learned of it the improvised nature of Christoph’s “promotion” they would throw the whole thing out. Still, it would put a stink on him that would probably never go away.
Not that the time in Taiwan was all bad, they had gotten the guns up to scratch and the mechanics had gotten the engine to where it felt somewhat dependable. Christoph hoped that would be enough because he had gotten orders saying that he was to make for Gaspar Strait where the Esel was to provide fire support for the Dutch Marines.
8th January 1956
Washington D.C.
The year had not gotten off to a great start, the Department of Defense had spent a colossal amount of money upgrading Signal Intelligence over the prior two years and then the Norfolk prank had happened, making them all look like idiots. It had taken the eggheads at MIT several days to figure out how it must have been done and who was at fault. The breach in security that had enabled someone to play music over the intercom had not been caused by a German Admiral on the wrong side of the Atlantic, thousands of miles away. It had been caused by the U.S. Navy itself. The base at Norfolk had recently switched to an automatic switchboard that had been taken over remotely and that had given whoever had done it control of the intercom as well. Anyone in North America with the right equipment and access to a phone line could have done it.
Truman had almost picked up the phone and called the German Embassy to complain then realized he would be making a mistake. Admiral von Schmidt was rumored to be on his way out according to the CIA, he had reached the peak of his career and while he was loved as hero by the public, that did not extend to his superiors in the German High Command or the Reichstag. The Admiral was looking down the barrel of retirement in the very near future after spending a career with a chip on his shoulder and showing the world exactly how brilliant he was. The Norfolk prank was probably going to be his last hurrah. He had found a clever way to exploit a security vulnerability that bypassed every countermeasure the NSA and Defense had put in place against people like him. If anyone said anything, he could point to how difficult it would be to produce evidence that proved that it really had been him. All it would take is Truman picking up the phone and making that complaint and Jacob von Schmidt would be able to go out on a high note. Truman would be playing into the Admiral’s hands the way that so many others had in the past.
However, none of that explained the Admiral’s interest in the Captain of the Enterprise. The Captain of the Aircraft Carrier was just as bewildered by that as anyone else.
Berlin
It was not as if Kiki hadn’t been warned that this would happen. A few days earlier, Frau Nagler had passed away during the night. Hardly a surprise considering how old she was, still Kiki found herself upset over it no matter how much she tried to rationalize it. However, it wasn’t until she went to the service that was held in the hospital chapel that she discovered that Frau Nagler really did have no one. It had just been Kiki, a couple of the other patients and one of the janitors.
Frau Nagler had mentioned a son that she’d had, who had died in the First World War as well one older and one younger brother. It had taken several phone calls, but Kiki had learned that Frau Nagler’s brother had a daughter who had lived in Oranienburg but had died almost two decades earlier. It was that woman’s daughter who Kiki had talked to over the phone who had not been exactly thrilled to get a call regarding a great aunt she didn’t know from a volunteer at the hospital. Most of the call had involved Kiki having to convince her that it wasn’t a scam. The woman had stated flatly that she wasn’t interested in anything that might cost her money before she had hung up.
If there had been any expenses, Kiki would have gladly payed them. She felt she owed Frau Nagler that much. It had been a day later that Kiki had learned that like all other unclaimed remains in the hospital, Frau Nagler had been cremated and her ashes were to be placed in storage until someone claimed them. Something that didn’t sit right with Kiki, but she didn’t have the first clue about what could be done.
Taiwan
No sooner than they had made it to Taiwan, the Fleet had sent orders that they would take on fresh supplies, munitions and prepare put back to sea again. Christoph had been told that the Lieutenant who was to take over command of the SMS Esel had come down with malaria and wouldn’t be available. What that had meant was that Christoph had been informed that a message had been sent to Wunsdorf informing them of his situation and that a new Officer would be sent as soon as they got word back. Christoph knew how that worked, in the South Seas they could easily die of old age waiting for an answer back. The alternative was that Christoph remain in charge of the Esel, just in the capacity of an Acting Line Officer. The whole thing struck him as the Brass in Taiwan making it up as they went along, and he figured that as soon as Wunsdorf learned of it the improvised nature of Christoph’s “promotion” they would throw the whole thing out. Still, it would put a stink on him that would probably never go away.
Not that the time in Taiwan was all bad, they had gotten the guns up to scratch and the mechanics had gotten the engine to where it felt somewhat dependable. Christoph hoped that would be enough because he had gotten orders saying that he was to make for Gaspar Strait where the Esel was to provide fire support for the Dutch Marines.
Thank God Truman at least has his head on straight. I would still consider bringing it up through some unofficial back channel, with the understanding that if it ever became public or if anyone tried to pull a similar stunt every German diplomat and military liaison in the USA would be kicked out. There is still a good chance that rumors will leak out as it happened on the Navy's largest base while everyone was throwing their Christmas parties.
There is no doubt that this story is going to get out as there is most likely that there was Naval Officers from other Navies at the party, and they are gleefully spreading the tale and with each retelling, the story just gets better.
Frau Nagler could be one of those "little old ladies" that have saved their money and have unredeemed German and Prussian Imperial War Bonds and Kiki is the sole heir.
Frau Nagler could be one of those "little old ladies" that have saved their money and have unredeemed German and Prussian Imperial War Bonds and Kiki is the sole heir.
The most ironical it's that for Schmidt, "Retirement" it's only a word for "Work Change" as he will be likely asked to fully re-organize the Sigint Department of the BND to his standards of excellence , for not talk of possibly work with Von Braun in the development of the first Generations of the "Himmel Auge" class Photo Reconnaissance And Signal Interception Satellites, something that will give several headaches to the Americans as now NOTHING will be secret for the Germans as they can't intercept the spies in space.....
FBKampfer
Banned
Unless they decide that their airspace includes the space above them (which there is some measure of precedent for, given that most satallites are still technically in atmosphere).
Kinnetic kill vehicles would be a hell of a lot cheaper than the satellites. And if the Germans want to keep sending new satellites up and turn the orbital band over the US into a giant debris field... More power to them, at some point the problem starts taking care of itself.
Would like to know this too.
De-colonisation was taking place this time OTL, would like to see how it's being handled differently, if it's happening at all.
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Yeah.
But that takes in first point that the Americans have an even remotely close Space Launching capability to the one of the Germans, something that right now it's laughably dispar, considering here that Robert E. Goodard died without his work being supported by the Government or the Armed Forces, and that outside of him, there was little to no support for Rocketry until the Germans made the world aware of how potentially lethal could they be at the end of WWII here.
Even now, the Americans are pretty much well nearly over 20 years behind the Germans in the field, and the odds of them developing a viable ASAT vehicle capable of realise a pinpoint interception in orbit WITHOUT being guided in the final approach or even one remotely guided, are behind Jack and Shit in the sheer odds at the very least for the following decades....
As a point of reference in OTL, the Russians, with all their military development, spying and injection of money only developed a viable ASAT platform around the early 70's.
For all their money, the Americans are Starting WAY behind the curve in the field, and it will show when a German reaches Space while the Americans haven't even launched a basic Satellite themselves yet....
The IOTL Space Race between the United States and the Soviet Union was warfare by other means, but without the ideological underpinnings ITTL the sending of a man in to space will be seen as a stunt that has no real purpose.
The main focus is going to be science, military, and commercial uses of space.
Vice President Johnson is going to see space as an opportunity to make his own mark in the current administration and in his typical OTL self he is going to dangle the potential massive government investments as a carrot to the South as a way to buy them off on civil rights.
The main focus is going to be science, military, and commercial uses of space.
Vice President Johnson is going to see space as an opportunity to make his own mark in the current administration and in his typical OTL self he is going to dangle the potential massive government investments as a carrot to the South as a way to buy them off on civil rights.
Part 77, Chapter 1162
Chapter One Thousand One Hundred Sixty-Two
11th January 1956
Wunsdorf-Zossen
For Jacob getting called into the Offices of the OKW was hardly out of the ordinary. It had been when he had spotted the copy of the New York Times on the desk of Field Marshal Markgraf von Holz that he knew this was not going to go well. The U.S. Navy, and more importantly, the U.S. Government had not publicized the events over New Year’s, but word had leaked out. The New York Times had run with it as a humorous story. However, von Holz did not look in the least bit amused.
“Give me one good reason for this little stunt” Holz said in a cold voice.
“I was bored” Jacob replied, he saw no reason to beat around the bush in this matter.
“You caused an international incident, risked getting dragged before a Court of Honor and pissing away a forty-year career because you were bored?” Holz asked though it was clear he wasn’t interested in listening to any sort of answer from the tone of his voice.
“Yes” Jacob answered and the glare that Holz gave him suggested that he would have blasted him to atoms if that were possible.
“You are on extremely thin ice Admiral” Holz said, “Unfortunately for me, you are a key part of a constituency that the Chancellor doesn’t feel he can afford to alienate, and he feels that you should retire on schedule in a few months. I personally think that you represent an even bigger risk as a private citizen.”
“What is that supposed to mean?” Jacob asked. The implications of that were staggering. For what probably was the only time in his life his religion was something that was working for him.
“If I had my way, we would be having this conversation in the prison cell that you would not leave alive” Holz said, “That can still happen if you pull any shit between now and the date of your retirement.”
“Then we are through here today?” Jacob asked cheerfully.
“Get the fuck out of my sight Schmidt” Holz growled in reply.
16th January 1956
Gaspar Strait off Belitung
Through Christoph’s binoculars he could see the vivid blue of the sea, the white sand of the beach and the green of jungle. This region had fallen into lawlessness after the war had ended with piracy and guerilla movements thriving in the power vacuum. Some of them were for the East Indies being free from Dutch influence, however everything had fairly recent events in India hanging over it. The British had attempted more than once to withdraw from the Sub-Continent only to find themselves drawn back because they were the only thing keeping the various factions from killing each other. The British were finding themselves in roughly the same sort of situation in Africa as well.
The East Indies were if anything, more fractured. It seemed like every island had its own culture and language. If the Dutch left tomorrow Intelligence figured that the whole territory would either end up with an Autocratic Dictatorship or it would fragment into a thousand different squabbling factions and the events of the last decade would be a small taste of what was coming. In their own clumsy way, the Dutch were trying to make whatever happened next somewhat orderly and were hoping that a third option would present itself. That was what had resulted in the presence of the SMS Esel.
Christoph might have been mostly improvising as far as his command of the Esel was concerned, but he knew gunnery. Though she was a wallowing tub, the Esel had been built to be stable in rough seas. That made her halfway decent when it came to bombarding targets on land even if the French 75 hadn’t originally been built with that sort of thing in mind. As Christoph watched high explosive shells were landing on the hillside above the beach, he knew that they were being directed by forward observers up there. He glanced back at the crew of the pom-pom and saw that they didn’t look thrilled to be standing by as the action was going on. While that oversized Vickers could reach the hillside, the flat trajectory and light weight would probably make it infective even if Christoph didn’t have other things in mind for it.
Then he saw movement on the island and looked again through the binoculars. When he had seen the plans that the Dutch had cooked up, he had seen how the enemies, their identities didn’t matter, had a couple of different choices. If they were really locals then they would head inland where they would be a problem for the Dutch. If they were from somewhere else, then they would try to bug out by sea. As Christoph watched two speedboats raced out from some hidden cove. The pom-pom crew didn’t need him to tell them what to do, this was exactly what they had been ordered to wait for. The lead speedboat was hit by a half dozen 40mm shells and disintegrated into a fireball when the high-octane fuel ignited in the ruptured tank. The second boat turned hard to try to evade but ran into a fusillade machine gun fire from the Esel.
For once, things went exactly how Christoph had planned. It wasn’t something that he expected or planned for if he wanted to put a fine point on it. The crew was happy for the moment, even if Christoph wasn’t thrilled with the arrangement.
11th January 1956
Wunsdorf-Zossen
For Jacob getting called into the Offices of the OKW was hardly out of the ordinary. It had been when he had spotted the copy of the New York Times on the desk of Field Marshal Markgraf von Holz that he knew this was not going to go well. The U.S. Navy, and more importantly, the U.S. Government had not publicized the events over New Year’s, but word had leaked out. The New York Times had run with it as a humorous story. However, von Holz did not look in the least bit amused.
“Give me one good reason for this little stunt” Holz said in a cold voice.
“I was bored” Jacob replied, he saw no reason to beat around the bush in this matter.
“You caused an international incident, risked getting dragged before a Court of Honor and pissing away a forty-year career because you were bored?” Holz asked though it was clear he wasn’t interested in listening to any sort of answer from the tone of his voice.
“Yes” Jacob answered and the glare that Holz gave him suggested that he would have blasted him to atoms if that were possible.
“You are on extremely thin ice Admiral” Holz said, “Unfortunately for me, you are a key part of a constituency that the Chancellor doesn’t feel he can afford to alienate, and he feels that you should retire on schedule in a few months. I personally think that you represent an even bigger risk as a private citizen.”
“What is that supposed to mean?” Jacob asked. The implications of that were staggering. For what probably was the only time in his life his religion was something that was working for him.
“If I had my way, we would be having this conversation in the prison cell that you would not leave alive” Holz said, “That can still happen if you pull any shit between now and the date of your retirement.”
“Then we are through here today?” Jacob asked cheerfully.
“Get the fuck out of my sight Schmidt” Holz growled in reply.
16th January 1956
Gaspar Strait off Belitung
Through Christoph’s binoculars he could see the vivid blue of the sea, the white sand of the beach and the green of jungle. This region had fallen into lawlessness after the war had ended with piracy and guerilla movements thriving in the power vacuum. Some of them were for the East Indies being free from Dutch influence, however everything had fairly recent events in India hanging over it. The British had attempted more than once to withdraw from the Sub-Continent only to find themselves drawn back because they were the only thing keeping the various factions from killing each other. The British were finding themselves in roughly the same sort of situation in Africa as well.
The East Indies were if anything, more fractured. It seemed like every island had its own culture and language. If the Dutch left tomorrow Intelligence figured that the whole territory would either end up with an Autocratic Dictatorship or it would fragment into a thousand different squabbling factions and the events of the last decade would be a small taste of what was coming. In their own clumsy way, the Dutch were trying to make whatever happened next somewhat orderly and were hoping that a third option would present itself. That was what had resulted in the presence of the SMS Esel.
Christoph might have been mostly improvising as far as his command of the Esel was concerned, but he knew gunnery. Though she was a wallowing tub, the Esel had been built to be stable in rough seas. That made her halfway decent when it came to bombarding targets on land even if the French 75 hadn’t originally been built with that sort of thing in mind. As Christoph watched high explosive shells were landing on the hillside above the beach, he knew that they were being directed by forward observers up there. He glanced back at the crew of the pom-pom and saw that they didn’t look thrilled to be standing by as the action was going on. While that oversized Vickers could reach the hillside, the flat trajectory and light weight would probably make it infective even if Christoph didn’t have other things in mind for it.
Then he saw movement on the island and looked again through the binoculars. When he had seen the plans that the Dutch had cooked up, he had seen how the enemies, their identities didn’t matter, had a couple of different choices. If they were really locals then they would head inland where they would be a problem for the Dutch. If they were from somewhere else, then they would try to bug out by sea. As Christoph watched two speedboats raced out from some hidden cove. The pom-pom crew didn’t need him to tell them what to do, this was exactly what they had been ordered to wait for. The lead speedboat was hit by a half dozen 40mm shells and disintegrated into a fireball when the high-octane fuel ignited in the ruptured tank. The second boat turned hard to try to evade but ran into a fusillade machine gun fire from the Esel.
For once, things went exactly how Christoph had planned. It wasn’t something that he expected or planned for if he wanted to put a fine point on it. The crew was happy for the moment, even if Christoph wasn’t thrilled with the arrangement.
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If not butterflied away, Jack Nicholson starring in a movie titled About Schmidt ITTL would be interesting, if not at all like OTL's counterpart.
He has a few months in order to ascertain what steps the USN are taking to secure themselves and break them without telling anyone outside the Navy or, more importantly, demonstrating to anyone at all, how to break them. Just write a nice note for his successor and the head of Navy Cryptology.