Stupid Luck and Happenstance, Thread II

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by Peabody-Martini, Sep 17, 2018.

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  1. Darth_Kiryan The Númenorean Sith

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    You know I am actually curious if the US "salvaged/scavanged" some parts off the crashed space module....if there was anything else left, that is. I mean they would have wanted to try and get as much as they possibly could before the Germans appeared. .
     
  2. XLII Oh joy...

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    I think you underestimate just how much the USA gained in OTL WW2 - everything in which an immigrant who went to the USA due to the Nazis or the Soviets had a hand in is now at risk for being butterflied. There is no Bretton Woods, no petro-dollar, and so on, and so forth. The USA OTL benefitted enormously from a network effect, for which ITL they never acquired enough network saturation. The "benefits" of both OTL-WW2 and the Cold War have tremendous knock-on effects. If you are american, try picturing your environment without everybody whose family came after 1917.
    ITL, the USA probably are a nice place to live, but simply not nearly as powerful. They are the local hegemon of middle america, with little interest in matters beyond either Atlantic or Pacific. Medium term it will probably work out better than OTL, since they'll have to "confront their demons" instead of plastering over them with externally sourced stuff. Meaning things like Wall Street never get as excessive as OTL, since they lack various infusions of cash (and as you pointed out, are kept on a tighter leash).

    Edit: Also, there is a difference between "made a killing for a few years" and "got the thing lock, stock and barrel for almost nothing".
     
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2019
  3. ejpsan Well-Known Member

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    While you are much more right than I am, the United States is doing better then people think they are, it is just not doing nowhere near what it did IOTL and that is skewing our perspectives in this discussion.
    The United States is just too big and rich to be kept down as long as it has been ITTL and it is running underneath its potential, the question is that is there going to be something that unleashes that?
    My best case hope is that the South economy collapses on it self as it can not sustain itself with factories closing because of boycotts by the unions and the NAACP on companies that uses "Slave Labor and unfair employment practices", share croppers both black and white are leaving the South and landlords can not find any body to farm them anymore.
    With no influx of post war spending the various states tax bases are no where able to provide the revenue needed for the most basic of services, and from that maybe a new leadership in the South will emerge that sees only with racial peace will the South be able to grow, maybe something horrible needs to happen but is just maybe the South is too exhausted to carry on the path it is on.
     
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  4. holyknight Well-Known Dude that comments here and there.

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    The problem with your reasoning, its that for one, the United States hasn't even remotely entered a period of Baby Boom, their population birth ratio in a slower rate, and unlikely to raise much meaning that the amount of people born its not even remotely close to OTL.


    The other its that the most of the Rest of the World ENTERED said Baby Boom...we're approaching the sixties......China and the Asian Nations are entering a period of massive population growth. With Communism biting the bullet in 1944, its safe to see that with China and Japan, amongst other Asian Nations fully recovering at the end of the 50's of the effects of WWII, for not talk of the development of German Derived Industries and Corporations in South America, Mexico, Asia and Africa it will meant one thing. A BIG COMPETITIVE MARKET.

    It means jack shit if you have the potential, when former buyers now are starting to compete with you, when former markets start buying in Argentina, or in Africa because the closeness enables them to shave a nifty percentage of the price and still get handsome dividends and enough for a cut to be sent to the German HQ.....

    North America now has to deal not with German or European Competition, but with the WHOLE World getting finally to that stage....its basically the sixties, but the American Industry and Commerce will start to suffer the pains that happened in the 70's that motivated the Outsourcing of many American Corporations rather than deal with the Unions, with the obvious degradation of the American work offer.....
     
  5. ejpsan Well-Known Member

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    The butterflies in this timeline is enormous and the author is not one to get knee deep in the weeds about the details, so that leaves us as blind people trying to describe an elephant.
    While Holyknight is feeling the trunk, I am at the other end where there is a big hole and it doesn't smell good, but that doesn't mean that we are wrong or right it just means we have different but valid interpretations of the same information that has been given.
    As an example while there is not going to be a baby boom for the United States ITTL, there is going to a more steady growth in the population as there are going to be babies born in 1942 that IOTL were not.
    Another example is that IOTL a lot of textile mills in New England were closed and their operations moved to the south, but ITTL without the Taft-Hartley act they are staying open but to lower labor costs they are getting in to automation much sooner, so that let say in 1947 that mill employed 500 workers are in 1957 is now employing 350 workers and after this next round of upgrades it will employ 275 workers.
     
  6. DarkObelisk Well-Known Member

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    One interesting thing to think about is that reverse engineering something is much easier then inventing it and costs conciderably less. And while the German Empire will lead the world in a number of fields, and although they have left the US in the dust in a number of ways. A lot of that, is because Germany was running before the US realized that there was a race. So while they do have a big head start, with each year that goes by that head start will mean less and less as the US begins copying German Technology wholescale.
     
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  7. Mandolin Active Member

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    Never done any martial arts ever.

    My grandfather was a dental-equipment salesman in the 1970s/80s and routinely traveled with tens of thousands of dollars of equipment. He actually had a Massachusetts concealed carry permit. His solution to NYC was to wear a nice suit and walk like he owned the place.

    He was Italian.


    Never had any trouble.
     
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  8. Theoretical_TJ Well-Known Member

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    I see there's someone else who gets a much worse history. Ouch.
     
  9. FBKampfer Ardent Arguer

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    Even the US internal economy rivals the total economy of most other countries.

    It might not entirely outpace the German economy, but you need much much more to knock a unified USA any lower than "latent superpower" status.


    The USA has the population, money, and resources to brute force their way to military superpower entirely on its own, though it will come at the expense of the civilian economy.
     
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  10. simssss Well-Known Member

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    So Kat has as much medals as thirld world military dictators but for real reasons as a female spy/special forces/police/ elite guards officier?

    Do that open more doors for German women in militaries? And for them elsewhere?
     
  11. mkemp Well-Known Member

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    ISTR that the WWII Female Auxiliaries were folded into their parent services after the war. Part of the total mobilization for the war was bringing women fully into the workplace.

    The doors are open but women still have to face a headwind from general misogyny and real concerns about physical capabilities (Yeah, she's a super-trooper but she really can't load an 8.8cm tank gun.)
     
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  12. XLII Oh joy...

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    You know the proverb "Opportunities multiply as they are seized!", OTL the USA got plent of opportunities and seized many of them, getting even more opportunities. ATL, the USA got far fewer opportunities, and seized even fewer of them. Basically, by ATLs "present" (i.e. 1956) it suffers from that Hans never went to the USA because Germany was never in the hellish condition it was OTL. He never founded his company, never had wife and children, and so on. The important bit to note is, that he wasn't replaced either in this ATL. Add to this the more competitive environs pointed out by @holyknight and the potential of the USA takes a sharp dive.
    As I - and several - others pointed out plenty of alterations also diminished the much-vaunted potential of the USA. They not only missed out on all the boosts they recieved OTL, their OTL main competitors (Germany and Japan) are far, far stronger ATL than OTL. This means the both the market and the political situation are harder, means the USA has far less opportunity for growth. Add to this that this TL could result in the USA losing population due to immigration (say, because the streams from Asia, Europe and Southern America cease to to those regions doing better). That is an explosive mixture.
    Yeah, no matter how many alterations to the TL, the USA will always be #1...sure.
    Then why the strong opinion? You were making some pretty strong pronouncements there. But if you never got bad teachers (of which there are, regrettably, quite a few), where does it come from?
     
  13. StevoJH Well-Known Member

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    And the UK was never in the desperate situation of OTL 1939 & 1940 where they are buying things from the US in USD, and having to sell large percentages of their external investments off in order to fund the war. And by the same token, the US Government was not funding the construction of ~4000 cargo ships during that period, which were then sold at low prices after the war depressing the market.

    So there is no reason why the UK doesn't still have the largest merchant marine in the world as long as they improved their ships, added in welding and diesel engines etc. And because of these changes there are no cheap new surplus hulls for the Greek shipowners to buy by the dozen.
     
  14. FBKampfer Ardent Arguer

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    No, but by the very nature of its geographical location and natural resources, the USA is playing on Easy Mode.

    To cripple the USA you need to kill off a LOT of people, divide it up, turn it 3rd world (and continually staffed by idiots so they can't leverage the obscene resource wealth the continent has), or change its geography (which is considered ASB).


    Any one will do, but at least ONE is required. So far PM has weakened the USA yes, but has done nothing to take apart the core strengths on which the USA built IOTL.
     
  15. Dan FFS TEEGAN YOU TWAT! TAKE IT DOWN

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    The strengths are still there, they've just not been tapped yet as the Americans haven't had a need to. As a nation, ITTL, I don't think they realise what they're capable of yet.
     
  16. holyknight Well-Known Dude that comments here and there.

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    Yep, but the problem is that the window of opportunity for realizing such potential its narrowing down.....

    The longer that the status quo goes on, without serious changes in the economy, the business practices and strategies, the culture and society... It will come soon to a point where to make a change of direction and style in the United States, it will require what amounts to Shock Therapy, not pleasant for the economy or the society, and more than often breeding ground for political movements that rather advance their society, throw back things..... It happened in Europe, Africa, Asia and South America, and certainly in the US.....
     
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  17. XLII Oh joy...

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    The thing/item what you seem to miss out on is that the USA are in for a difficulty spike, considering they used to play on "very easy mode". You, like most people I have met, underestimate the mind-boggling amount of people, skill, money, material and power which flowed into the USA as a consequence of WW2, and flow still. All of this is missing ATL, and may be even flowing in reverse.

    To realise a potential, you need entrepreneurs to endeavor, engineers to realise, workers to man the smelters, clerks to record, administrators to manage, mechanics to maintain, officers to supervise, judges to guard against the rule of strength. If you miss out on one of them, you'll fall flat on your face. All the wealth of the continent is useless if it cannot be tapped. In OTL 1930, the USA had 120 million inhabitants which until 1970 nearly doubled to 200 million. As a comparision, Germany had ~65 million in 1930 (which ITL will be more, since that figure is lacking A-L and the Sudetenland among others) and, after a devestating world war, rose to ~78 million in 1970. Those are the OTL statistics. In an ATL where the USA doesn't get to hoover up big streams of immigrants from Europe, Asia and Africa, it may simply be a manpower problem. Also, do remember that any american loss is anothers game. Fewer people go to america, therefore there are fewer opportunities here, therefore even less people go there.

    Now, on the the nice things:
    A bit more flapsically: You are liable to get at least OTL 2018 levels of political infighting in the 60ies, excaberated by a rather isolated economy. This means it could turn extremely ugly, since the hunt for the wild scapegoat is libable to focus on easy targets. And the leader of the Eurasian Trading bloc (feat. Africa) does not qualify as easy target. Especially if they may have nuclear-tipped ICBMs.
     
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  18. Knightmare Well-Known Member

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    I dunno, when you're the top of the pyramid, everyone goes after you. Especially since the US has a fair bit of bones to pick with Germany, justified or not.
     
  19. Threadmarks: Part 82, Chapter 1242

    Peabody-Martini Well-Known Member

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    Chapter One Thousand Two Hundred Forty-Two


    20th September 1957

    Berlin

    In some ways this night was like a dream, but in others a nightmare. Especially with the unexpectedly disappointing way it ended.

    Ben’s father had been joyfully talking up the times that he had gone to school functions with a handful of girls, one of whom had eventually become Ben’s mother. While the advice from his father had veered between useful and terrifyingly bad, it did help keep Ben’s mind off the impending dance. Minutes later when he had walked around the block to get Kiki, he had a part of his mind short-circuit when he saw her in the parlor of the Gräfin’s house. She was wearing a black formal dress and had clearly gone out of her way to make herself look good for this event. Kiki was normally sort of frumpy and plain. Seeing her tonight Ben realized that when she put in the effort, not only was she out of his league, Ben wasn’t sure they were playing the same game.

    It had been the Gräfin’s husband Douglas who had reminded both of them of the significance of the night when he had wanted to get a photograph of Ben and Kiki. “Your parents are going to want to see the two of you two together Ben” Douglas said, “You father as well Kiki.” Ben felt his mouth go dry at the mention of Kiki’s father. His parents still thought that she was the nice girl from across the way, he had never figured out exactly how to tell them who she really was. According to Kiki, the Gräfin had a whole series of rules for her. Some of them made sense, Kiki said that she was notoriously messy, and Katherine insisted that she keep her personal space clean. Others were a bit more difficult. Like Kiki not drawing attention to herself while she was living in Katherine’s house. Basically, if the Press started camping outside the front door because they knew that Princess Kristina was living there then she would have to go back to her old life. That had been a strong motivation for Ben to keep what he knew about Kiki’s identity to himself.

    While Ben had been having his photograph taken with Kiki, they were joined by Jo and Tat. The two younger girls had heard that Kiki was going to a dance and they wanted to go. Ben wondered if six-year-old Tat even knew what a dance was. Douglas had gently told them that their turn would come, that Kiki was being allowed to go to this because she was almost a grownup and that Ben was a responsible young man. Ben couldn’t help but notice the implied threat in the way that Douglas said the last part of that. There were times when Ben wondered if Katherine and Douglas knew that he sometimes imagined what he might see if Kiki forgot to close her blinds. Other times the more logical part of his mind told him that they weren’t stupid, so of course they knew. It was the reason he was not allowed to set foot above the parlor floor of their house.

    The ride to the dance hall had gone well enough, though Ben couldn’t help but notice that the driver of the car looked like he could bench-press a Panzer, seemed to have no neck and gripped the steering wheel with hands that had scarred knuckles. Another one of Kiki’s not always so subtle security detail. When they got to the hall itself, there were a number of Ben’s friends form school. Apparently, most of his friend’s dates were from well outside Kiki’s normal social circle. Their entrance into the hall was met with whispers as the other girls saw them. Jealousy was not something that Ben would have anticipated, but he realized that he should have, coming to a dance with the prettiest girl was not something that he had very thought would happen.

    When Kiki was introduced as his companion for the evening as Kristina Fischer, Ben realized that it wasn’t who Kiki was so much an idea of who she wanted to be. Someone with no background, who didn’t have a lengthy title, or needed to endure tedious ritual. Even though the dance itself was heavily chaperoned with everyone to remain on the dancefloor in plain view, the next few hours passed like a dream. Dancing with Kiki had turned out to be incredibly fun. A few times other boys from Ben’s school asked her to dance, Kiki had told him to get them refreshments while she handled the situation. No one said anything later, but Ben caught a grimace of pain, the clutching of a hand that had been creeping towards somewhere it didn’t belong and an approving look from one of the matronly chaperones. It seemed that Kiki knew how to take care of herself in situations like that.

    Later, as Ben walked Kiki from the car to the door of the Gräfin’s house that was when it all went wrong. As the reached the top of the steps Kiki turned him and said, “Thank you for inviting me out tonight Benny, you are such a wonderful friend.”

    For some reason that felt like she had just dumped a bucket of ice water over his head. “I was happy to” Ben replied, as his words sounded weak to his own ears.

    “Good night then” Kiki replied as the front door swung open and Katherine who must have been waiting for her to get home let her in.
     
    Last edited: Feb 10, 2019
  20. ejpsan Well-Known Member

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    Hi Ben, welcome to The Friend Zone.
     
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