Struggle for Power: An Alternate Congressional History

[GerGOP]

STRUGGLE FOR POWER

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Struggle for Power: An Alternate Congressional History is a timeline in which we'll examine how things might have turned out if the chips had fallen differently. This timeline will focus mainly on the power struggles in Congress and the procedural moves and battles, while also looking at world's events and how mainly Congress and the various players within Congress react to said events. The starting point of this timeline will be September 25th, 2015: the day Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) announced his impending resignation as Speaker of the House. We will continue onwards from there ...

Please note that my native tongue is german, so you might find some spelling and grammar errors here and there.

Without further ado, let's get started ...

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Prolog: An Impending Departure ...
2. Prolog: The 2014 Midterm Elections
3. The Battle for the Gavel, Part 1

 

[Rosa Luxemburg]

I'm interested.

 

[GerGOP]

PROLOG: AN IMPENDING DEPARTURE ...


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"We have breaking news now, this is just in: House Speaker John Boehner has announced his impending resignation as Speaker of the House at the end of next month. The Speaker just now saying that he has decided that quote today's the day unquote to do this. This comes as shocking news to all of us, again this is breaking news: House Speaker John Boehners is in fact resigning as Speaker and will resign from his seat in Congress at the end of next month. We'll have more for you as this story continues to unfold ..."
- Carol Costello, on CNN Newsroom on CNN, September 25th 2015

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"I got plenty of people following me but this turmoil that's been churning now for a couple of months, it's not good for the members and it's not good for the institution. If I was not planning on leaving here soon, I can tell you I would not have done it"
- Outgoing House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), during a Press Conference, September 25th 2015

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"Listen, this comes as a great surprise to all of us. I'm told that not even Boehner's closest allies were made aware of this previous to his announcement. As a matter of fact, we're being told that the Speaker's staff dropped advance notices only minutes before the Speaker put to the podium to announce his decision. However, be that as it may, it immediately brings up the question: why? You know, Speaker Boehner has had a tough couple of months, the House Freedom Caucus has really made an already stressful job even more difficult for him. Ever since the Caucus became a political force to be reckoned with, it's been a constant thorn in the side of the Speaker and it seems like John Boehner has decided that he doesn't want to continue this constant battle against a vocal group of his own conference when Republicans hold complete control over Congress for the first time since 2007."
- Bret Baier, on America's Newsroom on FNC, September 25th 2015

"Radicals prevail: Boehner pushed out by extremists within own party. #SpeakerGeddon"
- Rachel Maddow, on Twitter, September 25th 2015

​

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Speaker Boehner Announces Resignation Amidst Conference Turmoil​

[...]

The outgoing Speaker also cited his meeting with the Pope as one of his proudest moment in his life. Speaker Boehner, a devout catholic, was struck in awe by having risen from small business owner to one of the most powerful men in Washington D.C. who issued an invitation to the Leader of the Catholic Church.

[...]

House Conservatives had always been weary of the Speaker and saw his method of conducting business and working towards a deal - particularly during the government shutdown of 2013 - as surrendering to President Obama and Congressional Democrats. When the Freedom Caucus was formed in mid-January 2015, it quickly became an important factor within the Republican Conference, some might say an otusized factor. But even with a huge majority of 247 seats in the House of Representatives, the now 37 members of the Freedom Caucus always meant trouble for Speaker Boehner and Republican Leadership, even though the Caucus Members always denied it.

[...]​

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Tea Party Claims Biggest Scalp With Boehner Resignation​

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[...]

After the shocking defeat of then-House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Virginia) in 2013, the Tea Party has now claimed its biggest scalp with House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) calling it quits at the end of next month.

[...]

The Tea Party's debatable assumption that the 2013 government shutdown did not hurt the party's chances during the 2014 Midterm Elections only emboldened the more radical forces within the House Republican Conference. When the members of the Freedom Caucus rebelled during the Homeland Security Funding Debate earlier this year, Speaker Boehner and his staff relied on unusual means to install discipline and was accused of punishing conservative members of his own conference.

[...]

When conservative North Carolina Congressman Mark Meadows (R-North Carolina) filed a Motion to Vacate the Chair, he was scoffed at, at first. But once again, Meadows and his allies in Congress were aided by outside groups and radio talkshow hosts and the pressure grew on Boehner to give in to demands made by the Freedom Caucus.

[...]​

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"This is a horrible day. Speaker Boehner is a kind hearted man, a true patriot. We've had our differences, but I'd never question his love for his country and the people he's so faithfully served in Ohio's 8th Congressional District. It's a real shame for all of us. A real loss."
- House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-California), during a Press Conference, September 25th 2015
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"The President has called the Speaker today and has expressed his remorse. Even though they have been at odds over policy issues, the President has valued the steadiness with which the Speaker conducted business and appreciates the now ultimately unfortunately failed efforts to rein in the radical forces within his own Conference to which he now seems to have fallen victim."
- White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest, during a White House Press Gaggle, September 25th 2015

"WE WON!"
- Headling of an email sent to recipients of the Madison Project, September 25th 2015

"This is a clear sign to the Republican Congress to get its act together. You know, the American People are sick and tired of it. They gave Republicans complete control of Congress to fight against President Obama and his agenda of reckless spending and tearing this country apart, and instead the Republican leadership has again and again surrendered to Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and President Obama. As a conservative, I am sick of it - and the American people are sick of it. That's what Speaker Boehner never understood and why he ultimately had to go."
- Sean Hannity, on FNC, September 25th 2015

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"These dimwits have no idea what they've just done. They might be celebrating right now, but they'll look like the dumb fools they are when Republicans are chased out of power come next year. They have condemned our party to an electoral disaster."
- Congressman Pete King (R-New York), on MSNBC, September 25th 2015

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An Uneasy Silence Sets In Amidst Speaker's Resignation
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House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) announced his impending resignation from the Speaker's Chair and Congress at the end of next month.

[...]

Whereas the defeat of then-House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Virginia) set off an almost tumultous scramble to replace him, the Speaker's announcement today has led to an uneasy silence. At this point, it seems like everyone is cautiously weighting their options while being afraid to stick out their own neck too early. House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-California), who is widely believed to run for the Speaker's Position wasn't available for comment all day and his staff was dismissive to multiple inquiries. Instead, they replied that the Majority Leader spent much of the day with the outgoing Speaker and the rest of the leadership team.

[...]

The Freedom Caucus seems to mirror the dog who caught the car: "Great, but what now" seems to be the most common sentiment amongst its members. The members were called in for an emergency meeting for later tonight by Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) to discuss the next moves.

[...]

Whoever thinks that this leadership race will provide for a smooth transition might be fooling themselves. Outside groups and political interests within the House Republican Conference alike will try to assert their dominace for the remainder of the Congressional term, as the party heads into a crucial election year.

 

[Wallet]

Hmmmm interesting. Why is the speaker resigning a year later then OTL?

It's awfully close to the presidential election, it would look really bad for the GOP.

Is Obama president?

 

[GerGOP]

Dear God! Talk about wanting to write the prolog at 2am in the morning. It begins in 2015, the 2016 was a weird mistake I continued throughout the prolog. Fixed it.

Yes, he is. Everything up to the beginning of the timeline is like it's been in real life, except if its denoted otherwise - which I'll cover in the next part of the prolog.

 

[Prince Daemon Targaryen]

Eager to see what comes next
Brownie points if you can get Rubio as the nominee

 

[Rosa Luxemburg]

This is great so far.

 

[GerGOP]

PROLOG: THE 2014 MIDTERM ELECTIONS´

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A Brief Overview On The 2014 Midterm Elections
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The 2014 Midterm Elections proved to be very successful ones for the Republican Party. For the first time since 2007, Republicans gained control of both chambers of Congress with comfortable majorities.

[...]

In the House of Representatives, Republicans exceeded expectations and not only defended their majority, but added substantial gains to it. With a net gain of 20 seats when results were certified in all Congressional Districts, Republicans had seemingly everything going for them and little to complain about.

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Defending all but one of their own seats, Republican incumbents held their own on Election Day, while the Party also managed to defend all of their open seats. The only Republican incumbent going down in 2014 was Lee Terry in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, whom many accused of having fallen asleep at the wheel.

In terms of winning Open Democratic Seats, Republicans achieved victory in Iowa's 1st, Maine's 2nd, New York's 21st, North Carolina's 7th and Utah's 4th Congressional District. The Republicans' victories in NY-21 and UT-04 are particularly noteworthy since they added to a lacking diversity within the ranks of House Republicans: In NY-21, Elise Stefanik was elected as one of the youngest members ever and with Mia Love, the first Haitian American and first black Republican women went to Washington D.C.

In the following districts with Democratic incumbents, Republicans achieved victory: AZ-02, CA-07, CA-52, FL-26, GA-12, IL-10, IL-12, MD-06, MN-08, NV-04, NH-01, NY-01, NY-18, NY-24, TX-23, WV-03. In CA-52, the first openly gay Republican won a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Carl DeMaio faced strong headwinds from social conservatives within his own party but managed to beat incumbent Democrat Scott Peters by a couple of hundred votes. It is particularly noteworthy that Republicans made their largest numbers of gains in terms of net seats in the states of California and New York, three in each of them. But it would be an egregious error to attribute this to the Republican Party broadening its appeal and becoming more competitive again in terms of being able to win raw number of votes overall. It's far more likely that the low turnout and the different electorate in the Midterm Elections greatly benefited Republicans, giving them victory in places where few thought they would win.

Democrats had previously boasted about winning back control of the House in 2014, a message which was more likely directed at Democratic donors instead of representing a deeply held belief that the actual majority was within the realm of possibility. With Republicans holding more seats in the House than ever since the 1928 Elections, House Democrats were left in the wilderness with a steep climb back to 2018.

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As for the battle for control of the Senate, Republicans achieved their third best election result in terms of net gains. With a net gain of 10 seats on Election Day, Republicans tied with the results from 1920 (+10) and only fell short of their respective victories in 1946 (+13) and 1980 (+12).

Winning open seats and defeating incumbents in the states of Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana, North Carolina, South Dakota, Virginia and West Virginia, the National Republican Senatorial Committee had much to celebrate. Only in New Hampshire, the once-thought vulnerable incumbent Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen managed to hold on, defeating ex-Senator Scott Brown in his quest to return to Congress. Kentucky Senator Mitch McConnell would finally take helm as the Senate Majority Leader.

The race in the state of Virginia proved to be the upset of the 2014 Battle for the Senate. Whereas the other nine races were at least considered to be competitive throughout much of the 2014 Election Cycle, Virginia was regarded as a safe or at least strongly likely seat by all major pundits and prognosticators alike.

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The extremely tight margin led incumbent Senator Scott Warner to file for a recount which he lost. He did worse in Fairfax County than could have been expected and which was the biggest contributor to his defeat.

[...]
- The Almanac of American Politics 2014

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"You know, on the outside, the 2014 Midterm Elections showed a very rosy picture for Republicans. Not only did they make significant gains in the House, gained control of the Senate with 55 seats but also won a surprising number of governorships and a record amount of state legislative seats. Regardless of whether this was a result of a different Midterm Electorate, the fact of the matter was that Democrats were now almost completely shut out in Congress. The rules of the Senate would give them some leverage, but at least in the beginning, it looked like Senate Republicans might even expand their majority in the Senate post-election. One of the two Independent Senators, Maine Senator Angus King openly flirted with the idea of caucusing with Republicans and we know that incoming Majority Leader Mitch McConnell met with Senator King at least three times and was prepared to offer him a Subcommittee Chairmanship, but in his memoires, Senator King said that he concluded that Democrats would win the White House and the Senate again in 2016 and that it would therefore be more advantageous for the citizens of Maine that he'd stick with Senate Democrats. Even though it would mean spending two years in the Minority. But what you have to understand is that life in the Senate Minority isn't too bad, especially not if you're considered a swing vote. It makes you all the more important for the Senate Leades from both sides to win your favor and Senator King was prepared to make the most juice out of the lemon he was given. Senator McConnell had also met with West Virginia Democratic Senator Joe Manchin, but that meeting was short lived. McConnell later said that he never felt a real chance that Manchin would switch sides. But nevertheless, he had to take the chance to increase his majority to 56, or possibly even 57. Like he once said: "55 is a good number, but 56 or even 57 is an even better number."

[...]

Going into the 114th Congress, Republican Leadership in both the House and the Senate had a huge problem: They had been given complete control of Congress but still faced a Democratic President in the White House. They knew fully well that they'd never be able to deliver on some of the key items Republican candidates had promised their riled up base. A full repeal of Obamacare, national concealed carry reciprocity laws, tax reform, you name it ... all of these were things that Republican voters expected their elected representatives to accomplish while paying little to no attention to how impossible it was to achieve said goals.

This represented a challenge for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, but even moreso for House Speaker John Boehner who faced a much more ruckus crowd among his Conference Members. And it was ultimately the combination of these rebels and the anger that the Republican base directed at him that I believe made Speaker Boehner resign the Speakership and his seat in Congress in the end. Much has been said and written in recent years that he had been pushed aside, that he was ultimately defeated. I don't believe that to be the case. I believe that he was simply done with battling his own members day in and day out, while being hammered in the Press and by the White House.

The House Freedom Caucus represents one of the most interesting groups for Congressional Historians such as myself and it's safe to say that they've played a large role, sometimes an even outsized role in the 114th Congress and beyond. The Palace Revolt which led to the resignation of Speaker Boehner and the subsequent election of a new Speaker mid-session and the rippling effect that this had on Republicans and the House itself can't be overstated ...
- Mark Calloway, during a lecture at Harvard University, December 3rd 2021

 

[Prince Daemon Targaryen]

Yes!!!!!! GOP gains in CA! Love it! Scott Peters is my congressman currently, ugh. Regardless of his party affiliation, I despise anyone who gay-baits.
Little note, you should always have the winner be on the left side in wikiboxes

 

[GerGOP]

I'll keep it in mind for the next wikiboxes, thanks.

I made Republicans slightly stronger than the original 2014 Midterms did. Mostly because of flavor, but not only because of it.

 

[Prince Daemon Targaryen]

I'll keep it in mind for the next wikiboxes, thanks.

I made Republicans slightly stronger than the original 2014 Midterms did. Mostly because of flavor, but not only because of it.

Adds a few more leadership votes against the HFC, so a greater cushion for Boehner. I'm excited to see how it develops

 

[GerGOP]

Adds a few more leadership votes against the HFC, so a greater cushion for Boehner. I'm excited to see how it develops

Indeed, it does. Didn't save Boehner, but will it make things easier for his successor? We'll see ...

 

[GerGOP]

The Battle for the Gavel: Part 1​

Dear Colleague,

I am writing to you, announcing that I will stand as a candidate for Speaker in the upcoming conference election and am humbly asking for your support.

[...]

We must take a strong stance against the White House and even against our Republican friends and colleagues in the Senate if we seek to deliver on the results we promised the American people. We were sent to Washington D.C. to do a job and we need to combine our forces in order to accomplish this job.

[...]

- House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-California), in a "Dear Colleague" letter announcing his candidacy for Speaker, September 28th 2015

We've scheduled a Conference Meeting for October 8th to elect a candidate for Speaker. #HouseGOP
- Republican Conference Chairwoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Washington), on Twitter, September 28th 2015

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House Majority Leader McCarthy Widely Expected To Win Speakership
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House Majority leader Kevin McCarthy (R-California) announced his widely expected run for Speaker in a "Dear Colleague" letter today. He is widely expected to win the nod from the Republican Conference on October 15th 2015.

In the wee hours of the day after outgoing House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) announced his intention to resign at the end of October, Kevin McCarthy started to make calls to friends and allies and potential supporters. His announcement comes a bit later than it had been expected, but colleagues said that he wanted to secure as much as support as possible prior to launching his bid.

[...]

Thus far, no one else has announced his or her intention to run for the Speaker's job, even though there are voices within the Conference saying that there definitely should be more than one candidate for the job. Texas Congressman Jeb Hensarling is rumored to be mulling a potential bid. The Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee is well liked among his peers and would generally be seen as a more conservative candidate for Speaker by outside groups who remain weary of Kevin McCarthy.

The House Freedom Caucus has announced its intention to meet with all potential candidates for Speaker and to give them all an open and fair chance. But Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) made very clear, according to several sources, that the Freedom Caucus wanted to make some changes to how things are run and that any endorsement of the Freedom Caucus would hinge on the candidate's seriousness to see these changes through.

- September 28th 2015

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Jordan: "It would be insane to do the same thing over and over again. What we need to see are some structural changes to how the House conducts business. We have 435 members and it simply can't be that legislation is being written behind closed doors in the leadership offices, while the rest has to twiddle their thumbs."
Hannity: "So, Congressman, are you telling me that you won't be voting for Kevin McCarthy? Because, I gotta tell you: I don't see how things will change if he's elevated to Speaker."
Jordan: "No, I'm not saying that. I'm not saying that I won't vote for him and I'm not saying that I will vote for him. What I'm saying is that there is great unrest among many of our colleagues who are simply not happy with how we've conducted ourselves and how things have been run in the past few months. But as far as the Freedom Caucus goes, we will meet with each and every candidate who steps forward and meet with them, talk to them and then we'll get a sense how serious they are."
Hannity: "Will you run for Speaker?"
Jordan: "No, I don't think that I'm the person best equipped to do the job, but I intend to do whatever I can to help that we'll find the best person possible."
- Congressman and House Freedom Caucus Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), during an interview with Sean Hannity on FNC, September 28th 2015

"Gosh, no! Are you kidding me? Why would I ever want to do that?"
- Congressman and Ways and Means Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin), when asked whether he'd run for Speaker, September 29th 2015

Being told that McMorris Rodgers will NOT run for Speaker. Hensarling also leaning no. #SpeakerElections #HouseGOP
- Josh Kraushaar, on Twitter, September 29th 2015

McMorris Rodgers declares for Majority Leader, joining race against Whip Scalise. #HouseGOP #LeadershipElections
- Josh Kraushaar, on Twitter, September 29th 2015

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Mum's The Word For McCarthy Challengers
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With only a week to go until the Republican Conference Meeting to elect its candidate for Speaker, mum's the word for any potential challengers to House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-California), who is locking up support in his bid for the gavel.

After Conference Chairwoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Washington) and Financial Services Committee Chairman Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas) ruled out a run, there seems to be a lack of serious competition. Allies are saying that McCarthy has already secured enough votes to win the vote with one week to go. But there are still many who are uneasy with the thought of just elevating McCarthy to the Speaker's Rostrum without putting up a fight, especially among conservative talkshow hosts and outside groups. But even the House Freedom Caucus doesn't seem to be all-in on a challenge to McCarthy.

"We were caught by surprise", a member told Politico when talking about the sudden resignation of House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), "we never expected him to quit, so we started at a serious disadvantage to the machine of him [McCarthy] and I don't think we can quite make up for it, there's simply too little time left."

Tepid calls to give members more time and delay the Conference Meeting were brushed aside by Conference Chair McMorris Rodgers. "We can not allow the political process to be at a standstill while we sort ourselves", she said, "the issues facing our nation are far too numerous for that sort of thing."

Disgruntled conservatives in the House now seem to settle for picking a fight when it comes to replacing McCarthy when he is eventually elected candidate for Speaker. Thus far, both McMorris Rodgers and current Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-Louisiana) have declared their intention to run for Majority Leader. Rumors are flying that Congressman Raul Labrador (R-Idaho) is mulling a second bid for Majority Leader, after losing to McCarthy in 2013.

In the developing race for Whip, the only declared candidate thus far is Congressman Pete Roskam (R-Illinois). But there will only be an election if Congressman Scalise is elected Majority Leader, per the Conference Rules.

- October 1st 2015

"It's idiotic! It's the dumbest thing these House conservatives can do: to let Kevin McCarthy just ascend to Speaker, while twiddling their thumbs and not even putting up a fight."
- Mark Levin, on his radio show, October 2nd 2015

"At this point, there is nothing we can gain by fighting for the gavel when we can achieve real results by focusing on lower leadership roles, namently Majority Leader. If circumstances change, we will reassess, but at this point, that's where we are."
- Congressman and Freedom Caucus Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), on ABC when being asked about the Caucu's plans for the leadership elections, October 3rd 2015

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Table Set for Republican Leadership Elections
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The table seems to be set for the Republican Leadership Elections which are taking place in four days:

After failing to draw a challenger, Congressman Kevin McCarthy (R-California) is poised to win the nod for Speaker by default.

In the race for Majority Leader, Conference Chairwoman McMorris Rodgers (R-Washington) and Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-Louisiana) are battling it out with McMorris Rodgers seen as the slight favorite. Congressman Raul Labrador (R-Idaho), who has received the official backing of the House Freedom Caucus appears to have little chance of winning the nod.

In the potential race for Majority Whip, Congressman Pete Roskam (R-Illinois) seems to have the upper hand on Congressman Patrick T. McHenry (R-North Carolina).

[...]

- October 4th 2015

Fun fact: This'll mark the first time both the Speaker and Minority Leader hail from the same state.
- Stu Rothenberg, on Twitter, October 5th 2015

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"Breaking news from Washington D.C., we're being told that Republican lawmakers have received hard copies of video proof that House Majority Leader McCarthy, who was poised to be elected Speaker of the House later this month, has an affair with fellow Republican Congresswoman Rene Ellmers from North Carolina. Please stand by, as we go to our Washington correspondent ..."
- Bill Hemmer, on FNC, October 5th 2015

 

[Prince Daemon Targaryen]

A sex scandal, oh jeez. Incoming RRH Turkey of the Year 2015!