France and the US are the only powers with global projection abilities. France isn't too bad off IOTL.
POD in WWI: Belgium lets Germany go through, but the Central Powers still lose. France annexes Wallonia. And why not the Saar? Fuck Wilson.
In *WWII, Germany is nerfed even more than OTL. It's not pretty. France is the dominant power of Western Europe, since the UK likes to think it isn't European. After WWII, Western Europe integration is stronger. The UK and Germany aren't part of this Western European Union, so it's basically a French-led Union. By 2012, the WEU is basically mega-France, common currency, military, etc.
A smaller, Christian Lebanon ends up staying with France. A less racist France keeps Algeria and other parts of West Africa.
So here France is definitely the world #2. It isn't hard to fuck up China, India and Russia at various points to make sure it stays that way. The Franco-American rivalry will be legendary...