Stronger Portuguese In Goa, 1961

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Vijay_(1961)

Apparently the Portuguese garrison of Goa was 12,000 soldiers at one point, but by the time the Indians invaded in 1961, it was 3,500. As a result, Goa was overrun quickly with minimal losses to everyone.

What if the garrison had been kept at 12,000 and the Indians invaded anyway?

I imagine the Portuguese would still lose, but they might be able to drag it out longer and there'd be butterflies from this. Even OTL, they did win some tactical victories despite losing overall.
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Vijay_(1961)

Apparently the Portuguese garrison of Goa was 12,000 soldiers at one point, but by the time the Indians invaded in 1961, it was 3,500. As a result, Goa was overrun quickly with minimal losses to everyone.

What if the garrison had been kept at 12,000 and the Indians invaded anyway?

I imagine the Portuguese would still lose, but they might be able to drag it out longer and there'd be butterflies from this. Even OTL, they did win some tactical victories despite losing overall.
IMO, the balance of forces was too strong on India's favour. The best possible outcome would have been a more delayed conquest with international public opinion being on Portugal's side through diplomatic efforts of its allies, and India being pressured to withdraw and maybe restoring Goa to Portugal.
 

Hkelukka

Banned
Better armed, trained, equipped and prepared they could have held out for weeks, potentially months. That is assuming the Port Gov would have had some common sense and actually armed their troops appropriately. A long bloody conflict would almost certainly be horrible for all sides and potentially bring the world that much closer to open conflict. Assuming Goa was fortified intensly for 3 years (which they had the time to do) and supplies ferried in, they would have been very hard pressed to occupy the city. But all in all, if they wanted to they would have.
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Vijay_(1961)


What if the garrison had been kept at 12,000 and the Indians invaded anyway?

I imagine the Portuguese would still lose, but they might be able to drag it out longer and there'd be butterflies from this. Even OTL, they did win some tactical victories despite losing overall.

A) My guess is that the world opinion that India cared about, the third world nations especially the newly independent ones, would not be so gushing in praise and think twice themselves.

B) PRC almost a year later invaded India. It might be sooner (in OTL it just happened to coincide with the Cuba Missile crisis, coincidences of coincidences) much like Hitler was encouraged by Stalin's fumble in Finland 1939. Also, they might probe deeper and on a much longer front. Dictatorships love an easy kill and to probe for weakness.

One way that Goa could have done it is by mines. Terrible, cheap and possible to electrify (a current starts inital activation and turning it off completes the the second process, so at extreme alert it can be started. If an errant shell hits the network line, it is not wasted. Wait until the Indian Army probes four miles inward, have the cameras rolling for the press leaks, then switch off the network, letting the mines completely set. For bonus points, especially mine the areas where the four mile point roadblocks would best be defiliated upon by the Indians. Set up mines over a year or so -- always at night and away from the border checkpoints. Blamo.)

It would not change the end effect, but could supremely give a big bargaining chip to the end of Goa's Portugese connection, much like Thatcher did with H.K. before 1997.
 
Butterflies

In particular, PRC might try for the equally claimed area to the far east, near Bhutan and Assam, which was much more populated. It could have even been tempted by running through Sikkim, though then independent it already had deep links with India. India would have been only 20 miles march away, and 20 miles to cut off the entire huge Assam province away (the border of then East Pakistan.) At only about 15 million people then, still a huge loss of face. I think the road 14,000 feet at the Nathula Pass, and there were border skermishes in 1962.

That would have been big butterfly leverage. Who knows what would have happened after such a result?

sikkim_map.jpg
 
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