How do you maintain a strong Argentine economy throughout majority of the 20th century?
Avoid the Rodrigazo and the 1982 Latin American debt crisis, which means avoiding the 1973 oil crisis or the Yom Kippur War. Later on, we'd need Argentina to successfully negotiate its entrance to globalization, which probably can't be done without harm, as too many large Argentine corporations weren't prepared, at all, to compete in the world stage.How do you maintain a strong Argentine economy throughout majority of the 20th century?
Avoid the Rodrigazo and the 1982 Latin American debt crisis, which means avoiding the 1973 oil crisis or the Yom Kippur War. Later on, we'd need Argentina to successfully negotiate its entrance to globalization, which probably can't be done without harm, as too many large Argentine corporations weren't prepared, at all, to compete in the world stage.
Theoretically, he could have been reelected ad-infinitum, but I just don't think his opponents will let that happen. Maybe, if he keeps the Catholic Church from joining his opponents (or even better, at his side), then the Church can prevent a future coup? In that case, we have him president until 1974, give or take a few years. By that time, Argentina wouldn't have such a big issue with left wing guerrillas, because there won't be any Peronist guerrillas and the hierarchy of the Armed Forces, by then, would have been handpicked by Peron, and trained by him for thirty years. He didn't leave any worthy successor in OTL, so his death would leave a mess.In a scenario where the coup of 1955 scenario is butterflied, how far can Peron go?
The 1930 coup was a close thing. Change around a few officers, or make someone oppose using the military academy cadets (ie, plenty of sons of officers and other wealthy people) and the coup fails.Any earlier POD's? For example prevent the 1930 coup. How does that occur and what would that do?
But it's not going to change the economic performance of Argentina.
Here's Argentina GDP per capita, in 2011 constant dollarsWhy? Wouldn’t preventing coup help?
Well I guess the gov before wasn’t great for economic growth in the long term.
Make the conservative Congress during Roca's second term approve Roca's labor reforms and make sure the following governments respect them.Anyway to avoid Peron?
No WW1. Between 1900 and 1913 Argentina's GDP was growing at 8-9%, double that of rivals Chile and Brazil.How do you maintain a strong Argentine economy throughout majority of the 20th century?
No WW1. Between 1900 and 1913 Argentina's GDP was growing at 8-9%, double that of rivals Chile and Brazil.
Why is that exactly?
If the military coups were the economic issue, why was the economy growing during WW2 during the Ramirez/Farrell dictatorship and again during the Onganía/Lanusse dictatorship?In order to have better Argentine economy, the better POD would have been to avoid 1930 coup and allow democracy to further consolidate for another 30 years where by 1960s or 1970s, its economy would have been institutionally (economically and politically) strong enough to withstand with adverse economic and political effects of Great Depression, World War II, Arab oil embargo in 1973, and Iranian oil crisis in 1979.
With stable Argentina economic and political institutions from 1930 and beyond, its GDP (PPP) per capita would have been as double as today ($20,500), where it would have $41,000 similar to France, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom in OTL.
If the military coups were the economic issue, why was the economy growing during WW2 during the Ramirez/Farrell dictatorship and again during the Onganía/Lanusse dictatorship?
Au contraire. If you look at the gpd per capita graph I showed above, Argentina more than doubled its gdp per capita during the ISI phase (1930ish-1975) and begun its fall once the government attacked the domestic market and industry.And why Argentina's economic growth lagged behind Australia, Canada, and the United States after WWII and beyond?
It is pretty obvious that import substitution industrialization like penalizing the agriculture sector by Juan Peron was the culprit of the laggardness of Argentina's economic growth. Import substitution industrialization only worked when global trade networks were interrupted by WWII and when global trade revived after WWII, Argentina should have restored to agro-export model like what Australia and New Zealand had done after WWII. Juan Peron's intransigence with the new hegemon after WWII, the United States never helped Argentina's economy further, as the US asked Marshall Plan receipts including UK not to buy Argentina's agri products.