Strong Poland 1939

Markus

Banned
I doubt the Brits can get more bankrupt than they are already at this point. Anyhow, it seems to me like Germany in 1937-8 can do ONE of the following: crush and occupy Poland, crush and occupy Czechoslovakia, or defend all of its frontiers against France, Poland, and Czechoslovakia while making very limited advances. Knowing Hitler, he'll go for Option D: try to do A and B while half-*ssing C, to the point where even the French High Command sees that they can take the Rhineland and Ruhr with minimal casualties, especially with British support.

At that time Germany could not even defend itself, much less conquer any other nations besides say Luxembourg. Tanks, planes and subs were barely in production or not at all or only in inferior quality. E.i. the Me109. It had a 700hp Jumo engine and could not even make 300mph. France, Czechoslovakia and the UK had large numbers of 250mph fighters and in case of the UK a 300mph fighter. Tanks like the Pz.III and IV fall into the "not available at all" category. It should also be note that the Germans did not just take over the Czech tanks, they took everything: rifles, machine guns, AT-, AA-, artillery guns...it all went into the german arsenal.
 
Hmm, if Hitler believed that France and Britain could and would take effective offensive action, what forces would he leave on the French border?

Well, actually Germany would hardly be prepared for a proper two-front war. Hitler would gamble and trust that the German forces are able to
knock out one front in time, similar to 1914. This would be the Eastern Front, this time around, not the Western.

I agree that Hitler was a gambler in nature. He confessed that himself at one point. ("Ich habe immer Va Banque gespielt!")

Plus, if the Poles do better, does Stalin move into eastern Poland on the historic schedule?

Hard to say. I am divided on this question. Others have put forward the cons and pros of this question.
Stalin would however not help the Poles.

the Nazis came to power on anti-Communism; if there is no Big Bad Red Russia threatening, Hitler will likely not come to power.

Well, probably no. That was part of the package, and I am always glad to see ways to avoid the Hitler-desaster....but I assume that general revanchism
against Versailles and the desparate situation during the Great Depression really were more crucial to the NSDAP's appeal. We also have to consider
whether there might still be a German Communist Party even without the Sovjet Union surviving the Civil War.

There is no way to have the OTL attack in 1939 and have Poland successfully resist it.

But I absolutely agree on that.

The question here is not really so much "how do you strengthen Poland" as "how do you weaken Germany?

Sure, you could do that. But how? With the Nazis in power?

As the Sudenten-crisis showed, in the late 30s, the German military was still quite ready to remove Hitler if Germany would be sent into a war they knew
they could not win. Weakening Germany to a point where it could not beat Poland would qualify.
 
I doubt the Brits can get more bankrupt than they are already at this point. Anyhow, it seems to me like Germany in 1937-8 can do ONE of the following: crush and occupy Poland, crush and occupy Czechoslovakia, or defend all of its frontiers against France, Poland, and Czechoslovakia while making very limited advances. Knowing Hitler, he'll go for Option D: try to do A and B while half-*ssing C, to the point where even the French High Command sees that they can take the Rhineland and Ruhr with minimal casualties, especially with British support. Additionally, at this point the UK can pretty much sweep the seas clear of U-boats and Kriegsmarine vessels, which opens up some interesting possibilities about landing troops in Poland in direct support, if they have the balls for it. Someone in a position of power in France or the UK at that point has to have a few brain cells to rub together.


Personally, as I see it, Czechoslovakia represents a fulcrum that levers Germany into submission. How can the limited 1938 Heer envelop a country as big as Poland while holding the line against the Bohemian forts AND the Maginot Line? If Hitler deliberately orders an invasion of Czechoslakia and Poland those two countries ALONE in 1938 could fight Germany to a standstill.

Remember, one of the reasons for the war in the West being so "phony" was because the Poles were overrun before the French could scarcely mobilize. If Poland and Czechoslovakia are desparately holding on, the political pressure could build to overwhelming levels. Especially at the more responsible levels of government and the military. After all, there was no comparing the "West Wall" with the "Maginot Line". The French could afford to take risks the Germans could not.
 
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