Strength of an Alternate 20th Century Japanese Empire

Let me present two options of an ATL Japan. The key point is establishing the strength of a Japan today or during the late 20th century that retains possession of both Korea and Formosa, also all the Sakhalin Island. The first option is that of a Japan that loses some version of a Pacific war which forces her to give up her Chinese lands and basically all her territory gained post 1930. This all happens without Allied occupation. The second option is a Japan that losses the same territory but is occupied by the Allies, again keeping the regions specified above. I'm looking for estimates on her position and power and how much economic influence the occupation may have on such.
 
Well, if we simply look at the numbers from wikipedia, this country would have around and about 222 million inhabitants and that is not taking butterflies into account. For instance, North Korea has a population of around 22 million, but has suffered from droughts, floods, other natural problems and of course massive economic mismanagment, leading to poverty and famine. I'd dare say that NK could have had 30 million inhabitants by now. I'd estimate the population to end up between 230 and 250 million.

The GDP of this country would be 6.5 trillion if you sum all of 'em up. Again, this is without butterflies. I don't know what kind of economic developments your alt-Japan will see. It could well be higher or lower although I expect the Cold War to be roughly similar, perhaps going positive for the Japanese who can act as a buffer against communism. This GDP is almost half of the current US GDP to give you an idea and about 4 times that of Russia and close to that of China. Again, these estimates are based on OTL levels so I might well be off.
 
Somebody actually wrote a vaguely wankish TL about this, where Japan lost Korea and China to the USSR in a blow-up of the border incidents of 1939, but retained her other territories. It was pretty interesting, in spite of the blatant anti-Americanism.
 
Somebody actually wrote a vaguely wankish TL about this, where Japan lost Korea and China to the USSR in a blow-up of the border incidents of 1939, but retained her other territories. It was pretty interesting, in spite of the blatant anti-Americanism.

You're referring to this one?

http://www.angelfire.com/gundam/japanese_empire/


Anyhoo, I have real trouble seeing the US leaving Korea in Japanese hands if they went so far as to occupy the Japan - the Koreans really didn't want to stay, and I doubt we would have left the Japanese army in charge there...Taiwan, maybe, if the Reds had already triumphed or were clearly going to do so in China by the time Japan surrendered.

Bruce
 
The GDP of this country would be 6.5 trillion if you sum all of 'em up. Again, this is without butterflies. I don't know what kind of economic developments your alt-Japan will see. .

North Korea would certainly be richer, and South Korea, sans the bloody thrashing it received in the Korean War might be better off: OTL, the Korean post-war economy didn't really take off until the 60s, while a Japanese empire which still ruled Korea would probably invest heavily in it to build up the economy and try to buy off the locals with economic growth.

Depends on how closely it is integrated with Japan economically, I suppose: income disparities between, say, African colony and European ruling nation could be horrendous, but economic variation within the EC is rather lower, and within single countries (Massachussets vs Mississippi, for instance) is usually even lower.

Taiwan, I dunno: it's managed to reach pretty much first-world levels OTL.

Bruce
 
Let me present two options of an ATL Japan. The key point is establishing the strength of a Japan today or during the late 20th century that retains possession of both Korea and Formosa, also all the Sakhalin Island.
Nitpicky, but Japan never had all of Sakhalin; they just had the southern half.
 
Nitpicky, but Japan never had all of Sakhalin; they just had the southern half.

Not nitpicky, my mistake. In the TL I envision they have the island entirely eventually. Just jumped the gun a few years in my question.

... Anyhoo, I have real trouble seeing the US leaving Korea in Japanese hands if they went so far as to occupy the Japan ...

Yeah, my thoughts were to that effect as well. The TL actually has no US or Allied occupation, but I was just curious how much of a positive effect the occupation might have had in the postwar economic recovery. That's all relative to the degree of destruction Japan faced during the war, but I won't jump into details of that pending the interest level.


... I'd estimate the population to end up between 230 and 250 million.

Hmmmm ... I guessed at least 200 - 250 million so that lines up with what I have planned. Korea (all of it) will boom in more ways than one in the planned TL.

The GDP of this country would be 6.5 trillion if you sum all of 'em up. Again, this is without butterflies.
Thanks, that helps put some things in perspective.


I don't know what kind of economic developments your alt-Japan will see. It could well be higher or lower although I expect the Cold War to be roughly similar, perhaps going positive for the Japanese who can act as a buffer against communism.

The Japanese act as a third middle man during this Cold War that doesn't change much globally as the Japanese focus is on Pacific and Asian interest exclusively. They are aggressive to the US and UK due to being on opposite sides of the 'Pacific War' and also extremely hostile to Soviet and Communist interest due to the Red China that popped up after the forced strategic withdraw of Japanese forces on the Mainland. Due to the proximity of Red China, Japanese policy slightly favors the Western bloc.


This GDP is almost half of the current US GDP to give you an idea and about 4 times that of Russia and close to that of China. Again, these estimates are based on OTL levels so I might well be off.

I'm divided on allowing the Japanese keeping all or parts of Manchukuo. The timing favors the state remaining in the status quo (aka Japanese). The puppet state was well established and recognized by the USSR during the time of the ATL 'Pacific War' so there was much less a cry for its return to China than the other annexed/occupied and thus some mixed interest in the Manchuria region. During this time Japan was effectively forced to withdraw from China proper and the coastal regions. Soviet attitudes will change when the Chinese communist movement begins to take shape and after the Civil War will advocate Manchurian annexation by China but that will be after the 'Pacific War' and with Japan again established as a power in the region, albeit a more humbled one by with curbed ambitions. I think by OTL 1945 there were close to a million Japanese in the state. Were these located in certain areas or just spread out across the puppet state? Just wondering how likely or unlikely some of the puppet state might have been held if there were regions of high concentration of Japanese power/populations and areas of almost zero. That might influence withdraw limits.


Also, I might add that during the ATL the Japanese gain 'administration' of Sulawesi (with claims on Borneo) after the Dutch-Indonesian partition in the 50's but I don't think the island could add that much to the Empire's GDP.
 
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