Strength of a United Belgium+Netherlands

[DoktorDespot]

I sort of agree with this, although not all of it. I still believe that returning the cape colony to the Netherlands was still possible during the congress of Vienna (after it it isn't). The British had already returned it to the Netherlands in (I believe) 1805. The problem is that Britain kept the cape colony, Ceylon and western Guyana, because the Netherlands gained the southern Netherlands. An even stronger Netherlands (although Luxembourg as part of the Netherlands instead od a personal union isn't realy a stronger Netherlands), would mean that the British would keep more colonies (my guess would be the Dutch colonies in India or the rest of Guyana/Surinam). I could see the Dutch keep the cape colony if they don't get (all of) the Souther Netherlands, with some deal with the British, that the British are alowed to use the cape colony when going to India and the eastern part of south Africa becoming a British colony.

Ceylon is very unlikely to be returned.

I still consider it possible for the Netherlands to gain Malaysia. They still owned Malacca and the British had two other colonies there, Singapore and (i think) Penang. Singapore could even be butterflied away with a POD in 1815 (although I am uncertain about the likelyhood of that). Malaysia always was in the Dutch sphere of influence, so I can see a different deal with the British in 1824 in which the Dutch gain Bencoolen and Penang, while the British gain the Dutch Indian Colonies. Of course the Netherlands probably needs to offer something else as well, maybe the Gold coast colonies, maybe Surinam (or if they still have it Ceylon).

A Dutch colony in Ghana is as I said certainly possible. OTL many Dutch didn't agree with the sale to Britain. This will probably not lead to an entire Dutch Ghana as there are still some British colonies there. I can see a stronger Netherlands (one that still includes Belgium) keeping the Dutch goldcoast and even buying the Danish trading posts. To create a decent colony out of it the Dutch probably need (some of) the English trading posts. I suspect that if the Netherlands keeps their trading posts some deal with Britain is made in which various trading posts are exchanged forming two continuous sets of trading posts after wich two colonies are formed in what is now Ghana.

Dutch influence in China is possible, just like there was French, German and British China. It basicly depends on the history of China after the POD and how influential and interested the Netherlands is at the moment the Europeans decide to do something in China (assuming this isn't butterflied away). A united Netherlands will be more influential, so it is more likely. If they might be interested, i am not sure about that (actually I think they won't be).

Dutch Philipines? I doubt it; you need to go to war with Spain over it and I really don't think the Netherlands will do that.

In short: For the Netherlands to regain their colonies after the Napoleontic wars and gain the Southern Netherlands you need a POD somewhere during the Napoleontic wars (or even before that). Maybe you can get a Netherlands which has western (British) Guyana and Flanders, but I suspect to gain the Cape you have to give that Flanders up to.
Other colonial gains for the Netherlands are part of the Goldcoast after a deal with Britain, Northern Borneo, western New Guinea and nearby Pacific islands. Malaysia isn't out of the question, but only if the Dutch give up other colonies. Singapore if founded will probably remain British. The Netherlands will most likely not be interested in the Congo.

I believe that with a POD prior to the Conference of Vienna, the Netherlands can come out of it with at least part of south Africa as their colony. For instance, I agree that the British would want to keep Natalia or the eastern cape as their colony, but I think the Dutch could strike some deal for the rest. Perhaps if there was a POD of the British losing the Battle of Blaauwberg, then Cap Colony would go in full to the Netherlands. However, I don't think a British loss their would seriously affect the outcome of the Napoleonic wars.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

I believe that with a POD prior to the Conference of Vienna, the Netherlands can come out of it with at least part of south Africa as their colony. For instance, I agree that the British would want to keep Natalia or the eastern cape as their colony, but I think the Dutch could strike some deal for the rest. Perhaps if there was a POD of the British losing the Battle of Blaauwberg, then Cap Colony would go in full to the Netherlands. However, I don't think a British loss their would seriously affect the outcome of the Napoleonic wars.

The British could you know turn their attn more fully to the Imerina kingdom as well...


and lets be a bit clear on Dutch aspirations in East Asia. the Philipines are a bit much as is Formosa except perhaps as a sphere of infuence. but the entirety of New Guinea and the nearby islands (OTL Bismarch archipelago and the Solomons) and North Borneo are not... These are more likely to be where the Dutch aspirations would lie. As the regions would relative to Formosa/Malaysia or the Phillipines be only loosely claimed by anyone and relatively unexplored.

 

[Don Draper]

If the Brits do lose most of Cape Colony to the Dutch, I think they'll grab the Congo, they'll want to grab a resource-rich and large territory like that to make up for the loss of Cape Colony.

 

[DoktorDespot]

Hmm, well according to some calculations, in 1816, the population of the UKN (United Kingdom of the Netherlands) would be half of great Britain's, not including colonies. If the UKN gets Cape Colony back, then thats another 100,00- of European descent. Of course, I think that the continued existence of the UKN, would probably lead to greater population growth in tehh coming decades, especially as there no Belgian revolution. Perhaps, there would also be a greater influx of europeans to the East Indies , than in OTL (although admittedly I'm not that informed abou the demographics of colonial indoneisa.)

Anyway, I think I'm going to post the first instalment (rough) of my new timeline regarding this, and any imput would be aprreciated.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Hmm, well according to some calculations, in 1816, the population of the UKN (United Kingdom of the Netherlands) would be half of great Britain's, not including colonies. If the UKN gets Cape Colony back, then thats another 100,00- of European descent. Of course, I think that the continued existence of the UKN, would probably lead to greater population growth in tehh coming decades, especially as there no Belgian revolution. Perhaps, there would also be a greater influx of europeans to the East Indies , than in OTL (although admittedly I'm not that informed abou the demographics of colonial indoneisa.)

Anyway, I think I'm going to post the first instalment (rough) of my new timeline regarding this, and any imput would be aprreciated.

Just some thought s for you to consider regarding africa then...

most of the isolated trading posts are likely to remain simply that until the latter half of the 19th C, no colonies or protectorates outside of North Africa isolated locations in West Africa ( Senegal and the Gambia) and the Cape. They simply don't have the value that the Americas/Caribbean or Asia has to offer.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

If the Brits do lose most of Cape Colony to the Dutch, I think they'll grab the Congo, they'll want to grab a resource-rich and large territory like that to make up for the loss of Cape Colony.

Now why would they grab the Congo because of a loss of the Cape. Nobody knows anything about the interior of Africa at the end of the Napoleonic Wars outside of the isolated trading posts and the oe actual colony at the Cape. I would still think that the Brits would land in Natalia ( It does have a splendid natural harbour after all to use as a supply post... but the Zulu will be a problem so the British colony may be only small scale a t the start with scattered support for the native regimes nearby such as .. the Zulu, Xhosa, or the Sotho.

As for the Congo the only region the British are likely to be interested in is the Katanga region. I could see an Anglo -Portuguese alliance on the matter at the right point in time.

 

[Wendell]

Butterflies

Might this actually manage to worsen the prospects for a "Dutch Empire" long-term, or perhaps impact European geopolitics strongly in the middle of the nineteenth century?

Frankly, I'm not even sure that the Cape will amount to anything or last under restored Dutch rule.

 

[von Adler]

That's probably a bit much for the army - Belgium had six divisions - call it 12. For the navy, you could probably afford about what you wrote - maybe 4-6 dreadnoughts and BCs.

Belgium had 6 infantry divisions, 1 cavalry division and a militia, plus the garrisons of Liege and the Force Publique in Belgium. That is without counting any reserves.

The Dutch mobilised around 550 000 men during ww1, but they had time to mobilize their reserves.

I'd say something like this 1914, for the United Kingdom of Netherlands.
12 infantry divisions
2 cavalry divisions
16 reserve divisions (takes 1-2 months to mobilise)
4 garrison brigades
20 militia battalions
10 colonial brigades, of which maybe 4 will be topped up with the best and most loyal men and equipment and be sent to Europe to fight as a division.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Might this actually manage to worsen the prospects for a "Dutch Empire" long-term, or perhaps impact European geopolitics strongly in the middle of the nineteenth century?

Frankly, I'm not even sure that the Cape will amount to anything or last under restored Dutch rule.

Without British control their probably is not as much impetus for the Voor trekkers...but they will still be there if in smaller numbers, unless of course there was immigration into the colony sponsored by UKN...

If the Br. do have only a "small" colony at Natalia with protectorates established over the Xhosa, and Sotho and I don't know what where the Zulu are concerned as i think they would be implacable once the Br. Colony got too large.
then the Cape could probably grow to encompass all of OTL Cape plus Transorangia plaus the Western parts of O.V.S. ( the East remaining part of the Sotho Kingdom under Br. protection) and minus the Eastern cape beyond the Groot Kei or the Groot Vis rivers. You might still get a S. Afr. republic though under entirely different circumstances with mixed Anglo and Dutch settlement.

 

[fhaessig]

I. This could lead to an interesting situation in the twenthieth century that the Walloon Dutch would have the same problems as the Flemish Belgians have now, .

I doubt the wallons will ever be in position where their main problem is how to limit the ccivil right of the minority speaking vlaams and conduct an ethnic cleansing without incuring too much international protest in the united Netherlands+Belgium. For one thing, I don't see how you could get the wallon to be more numerous than the Dutch speaker in that entity.

 

[pompejus]

I doubt the wallons will ever be in position where their main problem is how to limit the ccivil right of the minority speaking vlaams and conduct an ethnic cleansing without incuring too much international protest in the united Netherlands+Belgium. For one thing, I don't see how you could get the wallon to be more numerous than the Dutch speaker in that entity.

I meant to say that the Walloons (at least the Walloons without money) would have been second rate citizens in the united Netherlands without much hope for social climbing without knowledge of Dutch. In the twenthieth century this would have been changed, with equal rigths for the Walloons and a split between Walloon and Dutch speaking parts of the country. But many Walloon parts would have been Dutchified, like Waterloo and maybe Limbourg (which I believe still spoke partly Dutch/German in the 19th century). So there would be a minority of the Walloons that wishes independence or possibly becoming French. A major difference with the Walloons in this timeline and the Flemish of OTL is that Flanders is now the richest part of the country, but the Walloon will be the poorer part (the collapse of the Walloon industries seem to be inevitable to me).

 

[pompejus]

Might this actually manage to worsen the prospects for a "Dutch Empire" long-term, or perhaps impact European geopolitics strongly in the middle of the nineteenth century?

Frankly, I'm not even sure that the Cape will amount to anything or last under restored Dutch rule.

You are right to assume that the Cape colony will want equal rights (at least for the white population) as the people in the Netherlands (like representation in parliament) or some form of autonomy. I think this will end in some kind dominionlike arangement between the netherlands and the cape. Of course an war of independence is possible if their demands aren´t met, but I suspect that it will happen only late nineteenth century or the begining of the twenthieth century (if they succeed possibly leading to a decolonization era for the netherlands).

 

[Grimm Reaper]

It should be noted that the Germans fully intended to invade Holland and Belgium in 1914, stopping the invasion of Holland at the last minute for what are generally considered questionable reasons.

There is also the possibility that a united nation might be less militarily powerful than two smaller nations each with their own military commitments, especially if one branch of their military, the navy, must be expanded.

 

[Fiji]

(the collapse of the Walloon industries seem to be inevitable to me).

hmm, maybe the heavy industries in Wallonia fare better in TTL. (or the industries in general)
In OTL they were taxed rediculously little. A bakery in Antwerp employing 5 people would often be taxed more then a steelworks in Liege employing 5000.
As a result, the Walloons never bothered to diversify and when economic troubles came about, they had nothing to fall back on.
So, in TTL the steelworks and coal mines etc etc will be taxes quite heavily. Prompting the Walloons to found alternate industries. Finished products of some kind ... rifles (more so then in OTL), locomotives, cars, airplanes ... who knows.

 

[DoktorDespot]

I believe that one of the major points of contnetion between the two side in OTl was that the south wanted high tarrifs (because of their indsutry) while the North wanted high taxes

 

[pompejus]

hmm, maybe the heavy industries in Wallonia fare better in TTL. (or the industries in general)
In OTL they were taxed rediculously little. A bakery in Antwerp employing 5 people would often be taxed more then a steelworks in Liege employing 5000.
As a result, the Walloons never bothered to diversify and when economic troubles came about, they had nothing to fall back on.
So, in TTL the steelworks and coal mines etc etc will be taxes quite heavily. Prompting the Walloons to found alternate industries. Finished products of some kind ... rifles (more so then in OTL), locomotives, cars, airplanes ... who knows.

Really? I didn´t know that. Interesting.