Indeed, with a Catholic majority (and probably liberalization with regards to religion after the TTL 1848, might the *Netherlands be more likely to side with France ITTL in whatever conflict arises here? It occurs to me that the Netherlands would most likely oppose attempts at pan-German unification, so would be even more anti-German and pro-French.
I don't think it'd be pro-French, particularly, but it would have a vested interest in stopping/preventing any kind of German unification and that would probably lead to a French-Netherlands alliance.
I'm actually working on a timeline for such an eventuality, but I have yet to get very far (mainly because i'm doing it in the from of a series of book excerpts and quotations.)
In reality, I agree that such a proposition is pretty unlikely, but here's a very rough timeline, mainly discussing colonial expansion, not other stuff.
The Empire of the Kingdom of the United Netherlands c. 1924
POD: In 1813, the Duchy of Luxembourg never becomes part of the German Confederation. Consequentially, it is granted to William of Orange as an integral part of his united Kingdom of the Netherlands which is formed in 1815 (in OTL it remained in Personal Union.) With the extra Catholic and francophone influence of Luxembourg, the Dutch's attempt to assert protestant and Flemish superiority are moderated, and it is decided to have proportional representation, rather than the system installed in OTL (Dutch and Belgians got equal number of reps, despite larger belgian popualtion) In turn, less tension develops inside the Kingdom, thereby avoiding the dissolution of the Kingdom as per OTL. The stronger United Netherlands in able to demand that the British Return Cape Colony and the potion of Guyana that the British took control of during the Napoleonic Wars. In the Anglo-Dutch pact of 1822, the Dutch recognized British claims to the Indian mainland, Mallaca, and the remainder of the Malay Peninsula, it manages to regain Ceylon, which then becomes a Colonial territory.
The dutch then proceed to reassert their claims to the East indies, and with Batavia (Jakarta) as their center of colonial administration begin to conquer the sultanates of the region, where they had previously used indirect rule. All of Indonesia fall under direct Dutch Colonial Administration, with the notable exception of Sumatra, which is ruled by the so called "Sultanate of Sumatra." This Sultanate is an entirely Dutch Construct, designed solely to appease the islands indigenous populations which had provided fierce resistance. The First Sultan of Sumatra was installed into power by the Dutch, and was little more than a figurehead, with Dutch advisers responsible for the true management of the Kingdom. The successive sultans of Sumatra have all been dutch educated, and any notion of Sumatra Autonomy is illusionary. Indonesia has seen an influx of dutch immigrants, but not nearly as many as Dutch South Africa.
Dutch South Africa remains an interesting region. While the Original lands of Cape Colony were made an integral part of the United Kingdom (as apposed to a colonial administration) in 1875, and now votes in dutch parliamentary elections, the northern region remains a Colonial territory administered by a Dutch Governor. Despite attempts by Boer settlers to move into Lethoso, that Kingdom remains an independent entity, and the Dutch Governor has agreed to guarantee its sovereignty.
The Lisbon Conference of 1889 carved Africa up into several spheres of influence. As one of the three major colonial powers (the others being England and France) the Dutch were able to assert claims over the central African region of the Congo, and Ghana and Togo. Despite thier shared border, the intricacies of Dutch Colonial administration have seen Ghana and Togo remain under separate Colonial Authorities.
The Antartic expedition of Jan Verdonk (1900-1902) launched from Cape Colony saw the carving out of King's William Land as a Dutch territory of the Antarctic. In another expedition 1910, Verdonk and his party became the first to reach the south pole.
The Flag of the United Kingdom of the Netherlands, and the Dutch Empire
The current flag (as of 1924) of the Netherlands was implemented in 1815, on the centennial of the United Kingdoms foundation. The Flags Orange field represents the Flemish protestants, and the house of orange, while the tricolor in the lower fly represents the nations maritime nature (blue), the unity of the Kingdom (white) and the Catholics in the South (reddish-orange)
In reality, I agree that such a proposition is pretty unlikely, but here's a very rough timeline, mainly discussing colonial expansion, not other stuff.
The Empire of the Kingdom of the United Netherlands c. 1924
POD: In 1813, the Duchy of Luxembourg never becomes part of the German Confederation. Consequentially, it is granted to William of Orange as an integral part of his united Kingdom of the Netherlands which is formed in 1815 (in OTL it remained in Personal Union.) With the extra Catholic and francophone influence of Luxembourg, the Dutch's attempt to assert protestant and Flemish superiority are moderated, and it is decided to have proportional representation, rather than the system installed in OTL (Dutch and Belgians got equal number of reps, despite larger belgian popualtion) In turn, less tension develops inside the Kingdom, thereby avoiding the dissolution of the Kingdom as per OTL. The stronger United Netherlands in able to demand that the British Return Cape Colony and the potion of Guyana that the British took control of during the Napoleonic Wars. In the Anglo-Dutch pact of 1822, the Dutch recognized British claims to the Indian mainland, Mallaca, and the remainder of the Malay Peninsula, it manages to regain Ceylon, which then becomes a Colonial territory.
The dutch then proceed to reassert their claims to the East indies, and with Batavia (Jakarta) as their center of colonial administration begin to conquer the sultanates of the region, where they had previously used indirect rule. All of Indonesia fall under direct Dutch Colonial Administration, with the notable exception of Sumatra, which is ruled by the so called "Sultanate of Sumatra." This Sultanate is an entirely Dutch Construct, designed solely to appease the islands indigenous populations which had provided fierce resistance. The First Sultan of Sumatra was installed into power by the Dutch, and was little more than a figurehead, with Dutch advisers responsible for the true management of the Kingdom. The successive sultans of Sumatra have all been dutch educated, and any notion of Sumatra Autonomy is illusionary. Indonesia has seen an influx of dutch immigrants, but not nearly as many as Dutch South Africa.
Dutch South Africa remains an interesting region. While the Original lands of Cape Colony were made an integral part of the United Kingdom (as apposed to a colonial administration) in 1875, and now votes in dutch parliamentary elections, the northern region remains a Colonial territory administered by a Dutch Governor. Despite attempts by Boer settlers to move into Lethoso, that Kingdom remains an independent entity, and the Dutch Governor has agreed to guarantee its sovereignty.
The Lisbon Conference of 1889 carved Africa up into several spheres of influence. As one of the three major colonial powers (the others being England and France) the Dutch were able to assert claims over the central African region of the Congo, and Ghana and Togo. Despite thier shared border, the intricacies of Dutch Colonial administration have seen Ghana and Togo remain under separate Colonial Authorities.
The Antartic expedition of Jan Verdonk (1900-1902) launched from Cape Colony saw the carving out of King's William Land as a Dutch territory of the Antarctic. In another expedition 1910, Verdonk and his party became the first to reach the south pole.
The Flag of the United Kingdom of the Netherlands, and the Dutch Empire
The current flag (as of 1924) of the Netherlands was implemented in 1815, on the centennial of the United Kingdoms foundation. The Flags Orange field represents the Flemish protestants, and the house of orange, while the tricolor in the lower fly represents the nations maritime nature (blue), the unity of the Kingdom (white) and the Catholics in the South (reddish-orange)
Deleted member 1487
I like the map, but I still would like to know why the Dutch would oppose German unification.
Well, I'm still trying to figure out what the exact POD would be, but in this ATL, King William is able to convince England that a stronger Netherlands (with the inclusion of Luxembourg) is a necessary buffer against France, and so the British tell the Prussians not to garrison Luxembourg. As a result, Luxembourg never becomes part fo the German Confederation, so it become a full part of the Netherlands, rather than just a personal union. I haven't extensively thought out how German unification would take place as a result, but i'm incline to say it ill happen at a later date.
I don't think even an illusionary autonomy would be likely for Sumatra to achieve before the face of an even stronger Netherlands. In OTL it was only Aceh out of the whole island that the already reduced OTL Dutch could barely conquer. Why can't a stronger Netherlands exert a better level of control over the island ITTL ?
As for the map though, quite nice there.
Possibly because the Netherlands are a nice flat region right next to Germany, and the Netherlanders are close enough to German that it distinctly likely any unified and irredentist German state would try to annex them.
As for German unification happening at all...I don't think so; at least not to the same degree. We might get a nice big Kingdom of Prussia, but it wouldn't be all that difficult for the Dutch to prevent a unification proper from happening; in particular, they could probably find a really good justification for turning the all-but-defunct Hanseatic cities into nice little puppets.
On the other hand, they never did anything particularly like that in the OTL that I'm aware of, so it's a question of whether being more powerful would lead them to go all Monroe Doctrine on Germany.
I'd also like to note that's I'm skeptical about Dutch Congo. In the OTL, Congo was pretty much a property of the King Leopold, and didn't devolve to the Belgian state until 1908! Since the original acquisition happened in 1884, and was entirely fueled by the now nonexistant Belgian king, I don't see it happening.
On the other hand, the new Netherlands might be big enough to defeat Brunei and take control of all of Borneo. These Netherlands might also be strong enough to take Papua New Guinea from the Germans, or the Philippines from the Spanish, resulting in a bigger Dutch East Indies.
In retrospect, I agree that the dutch would likely exert more authority not less over the island, but the circumstances of the Sultanate of Sumatra (the very name of which tells you how much of a sham it is) revolve around the Dutch rather exerting their resources in retaking Formosa. However, I think that it would make more sense to not have the (I struggle to decide whether to include it, and wound up doing so to make the dutch empire look bigger,) and to have complete Dutch control of the East indies, with all of Borneo, Paupa New Guinea, and part of the phillipenes.
On the other hand, do you think that such a Netherlands would be content ot limit its african possesions to just South Africa and Ghana and let France and England take the rest? Obviously in TTL South Africa is pretty important to the Dutch, and ghana is a convenient stop between Europe and the cape. Actually, the South African posession is what's going to allow the Dutch to (folishly) attempt to colonize Antartica by sending people to live their permanately.
I would agree that Dutch Congo is probably unlikely but something along the loines of the Congo society would still likely form. Britain was at one point considering Portuguese claims to forstall the region going to any one power. King Leopold's personal administration fuunctioned as a better substitute...
So I would think in that case it is divided into spheres of influence of an internationally administered region...I would say a five power international commission (France, Britain obviously and Portugal...Germany (or Prussia more likely) and Spain. They did have full undisputed control of Eq. Guinea afterall.
I am not convinced on The Gold coast either... I think an anglo Neth. division is more likely... Br. Gold coast as is with the Dutch in Togoland only.
Luderitz went to the Germans OTL but could instead approach the Dutch government instead given their proximity at the Cape...
I'm not sure your departure is really enough to give so much back to the Neth. at the C of Vienna. The British really could use the cape to facilitate their trade and supply to India and Australia. So they are likely to want to penetrate the Eastern Cape or Natalia perhaps to achieve that probably fairly early if you give the Cape back to the Dutch and Ceylon...
So Guiana would likely remain with the Brits in that case ( though if they have their choice, the Cape is preferred over Guiana). However, given that its mostly Dutch or Dutch sponsored settlement, I suppose you could have it... But would the Dutch be as predisposed to expand west at the expense of Venezuela given that they already have a substantial terr. Ceylon is an island so that could happen as well, but one would presume cordial relations between the Neth and Britain and even co-operation in the aftermath hence my rational for division of the Gold Coast at the appropriate time.
How are the Dutch obtaining Formosa? that was a result of the Sino /Japanese War OTL. Britain only got the Island of Hong Kong and Kowloon, so I see it hared for the Dutch to get an entire island without the other colonial powers in the region getting something else substantial as well.
At best a Dutch controlled City and Harbour along the lines of Macau or Hong Kong on the mainland would be preferred,. Xiamen, Fuzhou, Wenzhou, Ningbo or Hangzhou would all work in that regard... or are you thinking Kiaoshiung and simply a sphere of influence over the island of Formosa.
So I would think in that case it is divided into spheres of influence of an internationally administered region...I would say a five power international commission (France, Britain obviously and Portugal...Germany (or Prussia more likely) and Spain. They did have full undisputed control of Eq. Guinea afterall.
I am not convinced on The Gold coast either... I think an anglo Neth. division is more likely... Br. Gold coast as is with the Dutch in Togoland only.
Luderitz went to the Germans OTL but could instead approach the Dutch government instead given their proximity at the Cape...
I'm not sure your departure is really enough to give so much back to the Neth. at the C of Vienna. The British really could use the cape to facilitate their trade and supply to India and Australia. So they are likely to want to penetrate the Eastern Cape or Natalia perhaps to achieve that probably fairly early if you give the Cape back to the Dutch and Ceylon...
So Guiana would likely remain with the Brits in that case ( though if they have their choice, the Cape is preferred over Guiana). However, given that its mostly Dutch or Dutch sponsored settlement, I suppose you could have it... But would the Dutch be as predisposed to expand west at the expense of Venezuela given that they already have a substantial terr. Ceylon is an island so that could happen as well, but one would presume cordial relations between the Neth and Britain and even co-operation in the aftermath hence my rational for division of the Gold Coast at the appropriate time.
How are the Dutch obtaining Formosa? that was a result of the Sino /Japanese War OTL. Britain only got the Island of Hong Kong and Kowloon, so I see it hared for the Dutch to get an entire island without the other colonial powers in the region getting something else substantial as well.
At best a Dutch controlled City and Harbour along the lines of Macau or Hong Kong on the mainland would be preferred,. Xiamen, Fuzhou, Wenzhou, Ningbo or Hangzhou would all work in that regard... or are you thinking Kiaoshiung and simply a sphere of influence over the island of Formosa.
Ok, so lets say that Britain insists on keeping Natalia so it has at least some presence near the cape, and it also keeps the gold coast, while the Netherlands gets Togo. And also I figure that the Dutch government would probably recognize venezuela's claims up to the Essequibo river, and would cede that part of Guyuana to them, while keeping the remiander. However, I firmly believe that this stronger netherlands would try to assert itself even more strongly in the East Indies, and could prbably take all of Borneo with relative ease. From this point, I would expect the Dutch to look north towards the phillipenes and perhaps even fight a war with Spain over them ,althought with English backing, it will likely be a rather decisive victory for the Dutch. It will probalby then take the dutch a number of years and some resources to assert contorl over the philipenes, although I imagine its possible, even if they have to fight some sort of war reminiscent of the war fought with the US in OTL. Perhaps the Dutch would be more willing to grant some sort of limited autonomy to the islands, but then again they might not. Formosa is the result of British support for Britains wars against the Quing Dynasty, during which the Dutch took the oppurtunit to regain their old outpost. Of course intially the dutch just have control over Kiaoshung, but by 1924, all of the island is under colonial administration. Also, the Dutch recive an enclave at Xiamen, which is well suited for shipping and trade with the Dutch's other regional colonies. So here is an updated map of what their likely colonial possesions would be.
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If the British permitted a stronger continental Netherlands in 1813 it would be at the price of the British retaining more, not less of the Dutch colonial Empire.
Frankly, I can't conceive of any circumstance at all in which they would return the Cape, given it's critical importance of the link to India. Permitting the Dutch to retain southern Malaya is also exceedingly unlikely, given the importance of the Straits for the China trade. Given limitations of ships range, I also can't see any reason why the British also wouldn't retain Ceylon.
Frankly, I can't conceive of any circumstance at all in which they would return the Cape, given it's critical importance of the link to India. Permitting the Dutch to retain southern Malaya is also exceedingly unlikely, given the importance of the Straits for the China trade. Given limitations of ships range, I also can't see any reason why the British also wouldn't retain Ceylon.
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About Ghana/Gold Coast:
As already mentioned Denmark sold off her forts there to Britain 1850.
If the Dutch are this colonial minded they may enter negotiations at the first attempt at sale in 1845 getting just a thin strip of coastline in the eastern half. Or that may promt British interest in the offer?
As already mentioned Denmark sold off her forts there to Britain 1850.
If the Dutch are this colonial minded they may enter negotiations at the first attempt at sale in 1845 getting just a thin strip of coastline in the eastern half. Or that may promt British interest in the offer?
It depends if Germany is seen as a threat. I'm inclined to think no, at least in the first decades (i.e. before unification proper).
(Pre-1870) France, on the other hand, has the biggest army in Europe and the second biggest fleet in the world, invaded the Netherlands just some decades ago, moans about the Rhine frontier from time to time, and probably makes her best effort to denounce the "suffering" of "French people under Dutch occupation" in Wallonia - which happens to be a land rich in coal and industries.
I bet my money in an eventual Franco-Dutch war, especially if Britain is still in her splendid isolation and there isn't any Belgian neutrality to defend. Prussia could intervene on any side or just sit and watch how both rivals destroy each other before walking in and taking any prize they want (f.e. Luxembourg). Very Bismarckian.
I sort of agree with this, although not all of it. I still believe that returning the cape colony to the Netherlands was still possible during the congress of Vienna (after it it isn't). The British had already returned it to the Netherlands in (I believe) 1805. The problem is that Britain kept the cape colony, Ceylon and western Guyana, because the Netherlands gained the southern Netherlands. An even stronger Netherlands (although Luxembourg as part of the Netherlands instead od a personal union isn't realy a stronger Netherlands), would mean that the British would keep more colonies (my guess would be the Dutch colonies in India or the rest of Guyana/Surinam). I could see the Dutch keep the cape colony if they don't get (all of) the Souther Netherlands, with some deal with the British, that the British are alowed to use the cape colony when going to India and the eastern part of south Africa becoming a British colony.
Ceylon is very unlikely to be returned.
I still consider it possible for the Netherlands to gain Malaysia. They still owned Malacca and the British had two other colonies there, Singapore and (i think) Penang. Singapore could even be butterflied away with a POD in 1815 (although I am uncertain about the likelyhood of that). Malaysia always was in the Dutch sphere of influence, so I can see a different deal with the British in 1824 in which the Dutch gain Bencoolen and Penang, while the British gain the Dutch Indian Colonies. Of course the Netherlands probably needs to offer something else as well, maybe the Gold coast colonies, maybe Surinam (or if they still have it Ceylon).
A Dutch colony in Ghana is as I said certainly possible. OTL many Dutch didn't agree with the sale to Britain. This will probably not lead to an entire Dutch Ghana as there are still some British colonies there. I can see a stronger Netherlands (one that still includes Belgium) keeping the Dutch goldcoast and even buying the Danish trading posts. To create a decent colony out of it the Dutch probably need (some of) the English trading posts. I suspect that if the Netherlands keeps their trading posts some deal with Britain is made in which various trading posts are exchanged forming two continuous sets of trading posts after wich two colonies are formed in what is now Ghana.
Dutch influence in China is possible, just like there was French, German and British China. It basicly depends on the history of China after the POD and how influential and interested the Netherlands is at the moment the Europeans decide to do something in China (assuming this isn't butterflied away). A united Netherlands will be more influential, so it is more likely. If they might be interested, i am not sure about that (actually I think they won't be).
Dutch Philipines? I doubt it; you need to go to war with Spain over it and I really don't think the Netherlands will do that.
In short: For the Netherlands to regain their colonies after the Napoleontic wars and gain the Southern Netherlands you need a POD somewhere during the Napoleontic wars (or even before that). Maybe you can get a Netherlands which has western (British) Guyana and Flanders, but I suspect to gain the Cape you have to give that Flanders up to.
Other colonial gains for the Netherlands are part of the Goldcoast after a deal with Britain, Northern Borneo, western New Guinea and nearby Pacific islands. Malaysia isn't out of the question, but only if the Dutch give up other colonies. Singapore if founded will probably remain British. The Netherlands will most likely not be interested in the Congo.
Luxembourg. That I consider possibly the most interesting part assuming a POD after Vienna. In that case Luxembourg is still in personal union with the Netherlands and part of the German confederation. Lets first assume that Willem III gets a male heir (not an unreasonable assumption). In that case Luxembourg can in theory remain in personal union with the netherlands up to the twentieth century. If Belgium remains part of the Netherlands Luxembourg will not be split, which means that the Walloon part remains part of Luxembourg and within the German Confederation (and Limbourg outside it). This will have some effects on German unification. For example there will be no Luxembourg crisis. With luxembourg connected to the rest of the netherlands, there will be no deal with France to sell it. The question is: will the Netherlands try to incorporate Luxembourg into the Netherlands, not unlike Denmark wanted to do with Sleschwick-Holstein. This could lead to Prussia and other German states to declare war to the Netherlands to annex Luxembourg (and probably just Luxembourg). The netherlands could of course play its cards right and avoid war by not trying to incorporate it, still I could see Prussia have an unhealthy interest in the area (unhealthy for the Netherlands, not for Prussia). Would Prussia go to war with a country they have a pretty good relation with? They didn't OTL, would they do it now?
BTW the Netherlands opposing German unification would only happen if Germany had some insentive to annex Dutch territory (basicly Luxembourg). If the Germans make clear that they have no interest in the Netherlands, the Dutch will probably only be happy to see the Germans unite, if only to create a counterbalance to the French, who do wish to annex parts of the Netherlands (everything below the rhine, more than half the country).
A Franco-Dutch war is possible, but I think that Prussia will get involved on the Dutch side. The Dutch and the Prussians always had a good relationship with each other. I can even see the British involved somehow. The British always wanted to avoid that France gained the Flemish coast (the most important reason they created a neutral Belgium).
Abdul Hadi Pasha
Banned
That's probably a bit much for the army - Belgium had six divisions - call it 12. For the navy, you could probably afford about what you wrote - maybe 4-6 dreadnoughts and BCs.
HJ Tulp
Donor
I agree that a Dutch Cape Colony during or after the Congress of Vienna is HIGHLY unlikely. However, a stronger Netherlands might give more support to the Boers with interesting butterflies. It could bring the Netherlands into the Central Powers even though the problem of the East Indies incase of a war would still not be solved.
Any chance of a Japanese-Dutch alliance? A stronger Netherlands might have been the caretaker of Japanese growth instead of the Anglo-Americans.
Any chance of a Japanese-Dutch alliance? A stronger Netherlands might have been the caretaker of Japanese growth instead of the Anglo-Americans.
In Victoria I once conquered Japan as the Dutch before th Meiji restoration. Nice little add to the Dutch East Indies.
NIce map, altough I agree with Pompejeus.
Let have POD that the belgian revolution met a more resolute resistance and dieds a way before it started. Most agitaotrs were political revugees from France, not from the Southern Nehterlands.
It could be likely that the Guyana is given back after a deal or teritory change as in OTL with Ghana and teritories in Malaca and Sumatra.
For Ghana; Suppose the Dutch hold to their former slave stations and made some lucrative trade deals with the Ashantie Kindom in Ghana. This could be the reason to stay and buy the former slave post of the British.
For the Cape colony I doubt that the British will give that back, not likley. Suppose the United Nehterlands devoled united as in OTL, you would have a country almost immilar as to the UK with a large industrial base and 2nd large overses empire. Now ther boers start their trek as in OTL establish their own states as OTL and than the Jamesson rais happend starting the 1st Boer war.
How would the United Netherlands react?? The investment in the Boer states in OTL was considrable and the support for their cause very populair, but now a united Netherlands is almost the equal as the British.
Let have POD that the belgian revolution met a more resolute resistance and dieds a way before it started. Most agitaotrs were political revugees from France, not from the Southern Nehterlands.
It could be likely that the Guyana is given back after a deal or teritory change as in OTL with Ghana and teritories in Malaca and Sumatra.
For Ghana; Suppose the Dutch hold to their former slave stations and made some lucrative trade deals with the Ashantie Kindom in Ghana. This could be the reason to stay and buy the former slave post of the British.
For the Cape colony I doubt that the British will give that back, not likley. Suppose the United Nehterlands devoled united as in OTL, you would have a country almost immilar as to the UK with a large industrial base and 2nd large overses empire. Now ther boers start their trek as in OTL establish their own states as OTL and than the Jamesson rais happend starting the 1st Boer war.
How would the United Netherlands react?? The investment in the Boer states in OTL was considrable and the support for their cause very populair, but now a united Netherlands is almost the equal as the British.