Strength of a Greater Bulgaria

Nestor

Banned
Let's say the Second Balkan War goes differently(maybe Bulgaria waits to attack Serbia and Greece and somehow secures Romanian and Turkish neutrality) with Bulgaria defeating Serbia and Greece and annexing Aegean Macedonia with the city of Salonika, all of Vardar Macedonia as well as parts of eastern Serbia including the city of Nis, and also keeping eastern Thrace and Adrianople, and manages to retain all of these territories to this day, how powerful would Bulgaria be? I know it never could become a super power or even one of the major powers of Europe, but would it at least be a prosperous regional power instead of the dieing and poverty stricken nation it is OTL?
 
Well, it will be bigger. Though all those Macedonians, Greeks, Serbs and Turks might not be overly enthusiastic about being part of greater Bulgaria (much like A-H had increasingly problems with all its minorities)
 
Well, it will be bigger. Though all those Macedonians, Greeks, Serbs and Turks might not be overly enthusiastic about being part of greater Bulgaria (much like A-H had increasingly problems with all its minorities)

Even a quite large Bulgaria should have more Bulgarians than non-Bulgarians within its borders, so comparisons to A-H don't really apply.
 

Nestor

Banned
Well, it will be bigger. Though all those Macedonians, Greeks, Serbs and Turks might not be overly enthusiastic about being part of greater Bulgaria (much like A-H had increasingly problems with all its minorities)
At the time Bulgarians made up the majority in those areas before being subjected to ethnic cleansing by the Turks, Greeks, and Serbs, while the idea of a Macedonian national identity wasn't really that strong at the time and most Macedonians still thought of themselves as Bulgarians and would have been much happier being apart of the Bulgaria than Serbia or Greece.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Bulgaria would be stronger. It would have more minority issues, but would not be comparable to Austria-Hungary or the later Yugoslavia.

Question - would bitterness of Serbs over the defeat and conflicting claims over Macedonia guarantee a long-term Bulgarian alignment with Austria-Hungary (and Germany) or would Serbia and Bulgaria be able to come to a rapprochement where the Serbs forget about Macedonia and concentrate on growth to the north at Austria-Hungary's expense with Bulgaria's blessing (as the Vienna feared and St. Petersburg hoped)?
 
The major benefit to a "Greater Bulgaria" emerging from the Second Balkans War is that it will likely sit out of both World War I and World War II since it has no revanchist claims.

Instead, it might even opportunistically join the Allies in the late war (say September 1918) and seize Thrace and even perhaps Constantinople.

Avoiding WWII is harder because of German pressure to align with the Axis, but it won't be stained with having attacked Yugoslavia. It likely though has to agree to German transit through Bulgarian Macedonia so the Nazis can attack Greece to help out Mussolini. However, internal Bulgarian politics might be more moderate since you won't have ultra-nationalists being attracted to fascism to recover Bulgarian lands. With a better balance in the government, it is at least plausible Bulgaria declares war on Germany and gets Western Allied support (and perhaps a parachute detachment into Sofia) before the Red Army reaches its border. It's likely the monarchy will survive.

That would leave a non-Communist Bulgaria open to Marshall Plan investment, NATO and earlier EU (in whatever its earlier forms were called at the time) membership, and Western reforms. Worst case scenario would be an economy equivalent to Greece. Best case is probably around Spain.

It would not even be considered a regional power, but it'd be the most important country in the Balkans and a leader in the Black Sea. It would likely be the most important country between Germany and Russia with Poland a close second (assuming the collapse of Communism and Soviet Union as IOTL).
 
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