Stilicho: The Savior Of The West: A Late Roman Empire TL

Introduction:
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Stilicho​

Radagaisus’s Invasion (Late 405-Early 406)

We are not entirely sure on the origins of Radagaisus. He was called “King of The Goths” and the logical assumption is that he was a ruler of one of the Gothic tribes who had not crossed the Danube, and consequently, were now under Hunnic control. As the Hunnic King, Uldin, extended his power, it is likely that he claimed control over Radagaisus, who lacked the ability to effectively counter him. This would have ultimately lead to Uldin’s control growing to levels that were unacceptable to Radagaisus. Unable to stand up to the Uldin, he instead decided to invade Rome. It is probable that he hoped to achieve what Alaric had, and gain land for his men and a title for himself, in the western empire. The idea that he seriously thought he could completely topple the western empire is unfounded, and highly unlikely.
Turning to Zosimus’s account, Radagaisus gathered his men as well as others who were tired of remaining under Hunnic rule, and crossed the Danube and the Rhine into the empire.
Zosimus says: “While, however, Alaric was standing by ready to obey Stilicho’s orders, Radagaisus gathered 400,000 Gauls and Germans from over the Danube and the Rhine and started to invade Italy.”
It is often claimed that Radagaisus passed through Pannonia, but the statement by Zosimus that he crossed the Danube and Rhine contradicts this. On the contrary, he pillaged Raetia in the summer, and then towards the end of the year he crossed the Brenner Pass into Italy. This would help explain why Alaric (who was in Pannonia) didn’t join him, as he certainly would not have taken the chances of revolting and losing everything on the hopes that a force nowhere near him, lead by a commander he would certainly become subordinate too, would be worth the risk.
However, it is an extreme overexaggeration on Zosimus’s part, to say the forces numbered 400,000. Another source, Orosius, puts the figure at 200,000, but this is still too high. More than likely, this is the result of the fears of the Italians than having any basis in fact. In actuality, the force was more than likely around 50,000 men, with a lot of them being non-combatants, bring the full fighting force to around 20-30 thousand. This had a huge effect on his strategy, as it would force him to make a move that would be his undoing, splitting his forces into 3 to better be able to feed them over winter. Throughout the winter however, Radagaisus and his men pillaged through northern Italy while an outnumbered Stilicho bided his time at Ticinum, sending orders for troops from the Rhine to proceed to Italy, and any available Alans and Huns to join him. All the while, he ordered a recruitment programme to bolster his forces in Italy.
At the start of the campaigning season, Radagaisus, controlling the largest force, moved on Florentia, while the two other forces continued their pillaging through Italy. After Stilicho received his reinforcements and swelled his men to some 20,000, he began to take action to move on Radagaisus. Included in his force were the Alans and Huns, the latter probably lead by Uldin himself, who would have it in his interest to work with the Romans in defeating his former subject. The Goths Stilicho had absorbed into the army after the battle of Verona with Alaric also took part in the action.
Stilicho took Radagaisus completely by surprise, and he was forced to take refuge on the heights around Faesulae, with claims that not a single Roman was slain or wounded. Without an escape route, the Gothic forces were surrounded and starved out. Radagaisus attempted to break out-presumably to one of the other two smaller groups- and fight on there, but was captured and shortly executed. His starved troops-some 12,000 men-promptly surrendered and were absorbed into the Roman force. One of the remaining two groups was quickly defeated by the Huns, and this was likely the fate of the other group as well, with some escaping into Gaul. So many followers were captured, that slaves swelled the markets, and the prices plummeted. Stilicho was the man of the hour, and any opposition in the senate dwindled for the moment. Now Stilicho finally possessed an army capable of, for the first time, possible of going on the offensive, instead of being forced to remain on the defensive.


Note: The divergence point has not been reached yet. It will be reached in the next update. This was just the intro for some background info.
 
The Situation In The Western Empire



Since becoming parens[1] of Honorius in 395, Stilicho had always been forced to use his forces defensively and conservatively. The western forces had been decimated in 3 consecutive battles (twice at the hands of Theodosius: one against Magnus Maximus, and the other against Arbogast and Eugenius at the Frigidus). Therefore, morale had been dangerously low upon Stilicho taking over, and they would be at a loss for replenishing the ranks. It is often argued this is due to a lack of available manpower, though this is not really true in the sense it is commonly perceived as.
Senators were unwilling to allow men working on their vast villas to be conscripted into the military for the most part. The next option would be for them to pay taxes and give the gold necessary to conscript men into the ranks by other means. However, the senatorial aristocracy attempted to avoid paying taxes by any means possible, making this not viable. So generals and emperors were forced to use campaigns of force along the Rhine frontier to force Germanic tribes to submit and supply men as foederati (federates) into the Roman army. Alternatively, they would be ordered with guarding the borders from frontier raids and invasions, as Julian had done with the Franks. The use of "barbarians" in the Roman army instead of true Romans was viewed with disgust in the senate-yet they were the ones forcing the military leaders to turn to such measures. The result was a woefully out of touch aristocracy, that seemed oblivious to the problems of the day.
Furthermore, when Stilicho had "failed" to completely crush Alaric's forces at Pollentia and Verona, the senators were dismayed. They still lived in the days when complete victory meant complete annhilation of the barbarian enemy in a quick decisive battle, not long drawn out campaigns where the end result was the same barbarians being employed to defend the empire. Stilicho could not risk even minor losses to his forces, and so followed the strategy of his day, maneuvre and cunning, rather than the quick knock out punches of Caesar's time. Despite all this, Stilicho had inflicted a major defeat on Alaric at Verona in 402, which was why he felt secure enough to settle Alaric with a command in Noricum and Pannonia-two provinces crucial to the defense of Italy. Alaric simply was not going to be a threat to him for some time, as his prestige and numbers had been dealt a strong below.
This is why when Stilicho finally gained the military capacity to be proactive instead of reactive thanks to the forces gained from Radagaisus, it is no surprise he put it to his advantage as quick as possible. While the incorporation of so many barbarians into the army garnered more opposition in the senate, this would not matter much, as future military success could offset this. His next plan, the annexation of Illyricum from the east, would limit his need to rely on the senate.

[1] Guardian: Stilicho was appointed guardian of Honorius by Theodosius before his death in 395.
 
Campaign In Illyricum

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Praefecture of Illyricum​
Contrary to the beliefs of many historians, Stilicho had not been planning on retaking Illyricum from the east his whole career. Instead, it is likely recent events had made him finally just realized how vital it was for the west, and how little the east was doing to protect it. Added to this, he must have finally came to the conclusion that he would never be able to win over Honorius and the eastern court and have his claim to be parens of Arcadius recognized.[1] This must have finally become clear to him after his last failed attempt to assert that claim following the death of Eudoxia[2].

Illyricum had vital importance to Stilicho and the west. It would provide Stilicho with extra tax revenue and allow him to tap into the coffers of Constantinople through taxing the trade that went through the praefecture east. The manpower in Illyricum would be of extreme importance, as it would give him a recruiting ground free from the senatorial villas, and thus reduce his dependency on them while lowering opposition through increased use of Roman instead of barbarian soldiers. The region also boasted of a significant amount of horses that could be used for the military. One of the reasons Stilicho had failed to capture Alaric at Pollentia was the amount of Gothic horsemen compared to the complete lack of a sizable amount on Stilicho's side. Surely Stilicho would want to make sure this never happen if he would come into conflict with Alaric at a later date. Recent events had also opened up Stilicho to the realization that the east was not planning on doing anything to defend Illyricum from barbarian threats, which could lead to the west being taken completely by surprise by a barbarian attack.

One more reason, was Alaric himself. Until he got a magister militum command, Alaric would still be likely to take advantage of the west's weaknesses in an attempt to obtain one. So by promoting Alaric to magister militum per Illyricum (his former position in the eastern court), Stilicho was hoping Alaric would be satisfied, while at the same time not provoking outrage by giving him an Italian or Gallic command.

In late 406-early 407, there is evidence that Honorius's wife and Stilicho's sister in law, Maria, had nearly died [3]. This would have been tragic, as it could have hurt Stilicho's authority over Honorius. An attempt at another arranged marriage would have likely caused a massive increase of opposition in the senate. Luckily, Maria survived, and the political fallout was averted.

Stilicho hardly expected to face any real resistance to his forceful taking of Illyricum from the eastern court. Their recent history of dealing with crises, coupled with the recent political turmoil they had undergone after the death of Eudoxia in 404, would have reinforced this view [4]. Adding to that, according to Sozomen, the "Huns crossed the Ister and devastated Thrace" around this time. It was plainly clear to Stilicho,-and the people of Illyricum- that Constantinople would not be there for Illyricum if the need ever arose.

With this in mind, Stilicho set out for his swift takeover of Illyricum. As part of preparations, Honorius promoted Alaric to magister militum per Illyricum. Orders were given to him to advance into Epirus once the campaign season began, and then wait until Stilicho arrived with his Italian army. If everything went the way Stilicho and Honorius hoped, this simple show of force, would coax the east into ceding the whole of Illyricum without bloodshed, further enhancing Stilicho's prestige and negating any negating any backlash in the senate. Jovius was appointed Praefectus praetoriano Illyrici and joined Alaric for his march into Epirus. At the same time, Stilicho ordered all Italian ports closed to eastern traders, to lower the chances of word getting to Constantinople of the invasion ahead of time.

Stilicho had learned from his mistakes in his intervention of Greece in 397. This time, he made sure to have a large fleet to transport his army across the Adriatic, and prepared enough supplies in case of a drawn out campaign. The fleet and army gathered at either Ravenna or Brundisium, preparing to embark and sail to the port city of Dyrrachium. Meanwhile, in early 407 Alaric move his forces into Epirus. Shortly thereafter, Stilicho and his men set off and landed in Dyrrachium. [5]

Once in Dyrrachium, Stilicho moved up with Alaric to occupy all of Illyricum. The east had little to no forces in the praefecture, and the towns surrendered without putting up any resistance. When word reached Constantinople, there was panic over how to react. They must have feared Stilicho would attempt to march into Constantinople, and assert his claim of parens over Honorius. It was decided that Illyricum was a small price to pay to keep Stilicho away from Constantinople. Word was sent out to Stilicho that the east agreed to cede Illyricum to the west. The civil war had been over just as quickly as it had started, and Stilicho had made a monumental gain with hardly any losses. Opposition seemed to dwindle in Rome, as word reached the city of Stilicho's bloodless victory. He was virtually untouchable by the senate.

[1] Stilicho had always claimed Theodosius had appointed him as the guardian of Arcadius as well as Honorius. The Eastern court refused continually to recognize his claims.
[2] Eudoxia (Arcadius's wife) had been crowned Augusta in 400 following the fall of Eutropius. During this time, Stilicho had renounced his claims as parens. He attempted to renew them upon her death, but nothing came of it.
[3] In OTL Maria died, and another arranged marriage increased opposition to Stilicho in the senate.
[4] the east took to handling crises diplomatically rather than militarily, due to their refusal to be controlled by a a powerful military leader.
[5] This is the first major divergence point. In OTL, Stilicho received false news that Alaric had died. Thus he hesitated and shortly thereafter, Honorius ordered him to call off the attack. Then the invasions of 406 reached Stilicho, along with the rise of the usurper Constantine in Britain, and it would be all downhill for Stilicho from there.
 
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The British Revolt And The Rhine Frontiers


Britain​
Meanwhile, the people of Britain were in the process of stirring up a revolt. The Britons must have felt neglected and forgotten by the empire in recent years, as Stilicho had been focusing on on Italy and the East for the most part since becoming magister militum in 395. The movement of the praefectus praetorio Gallarium from Augusta Treverorum (Trier) to Augusta Lugdunum (Lyon) in 402 showed that northern Gaul was not as important to the leaders of the west as it had once been. This only increased feelings of neglect and insecurity in Britain, as they were even farther away than Northern Gaul.

So it is not surprising that in 406, a man named Marcus was declared emperor in Britain. However, he was quickly assassinated, and replaced by a British native, Gratian. Due to how fast these events occurred, and the fact that they were occurring near winter, which would make travel across the English Channel dangerous, official word probably did not get sent to Italy of Britain's declaration of revolt.

The Rhine Frontier Late 406

At the tail end of December, 406, a large group of Asding Vandals, Siling Vandals, Alans, and Sueves, attempted to cross the Rhine into Gaul. One of the Alanic kings, Goar, immediately offered his service to the Romans, and was allowed into the empire with his men unhindered, as an ally of Rome. The indepenent barbarian groups arrived on the banks of the Rhine separately, and at different times. The federate tribes on the border were in a difficult position. The Burgundians were either swept aside by the invaders or joined them, but the Franks were determined not to let the invaders through without a fight.

A fierce battle between the Franks and the Asding Vandals on the far banks of the Rhine ensued. King Godigisel of the Asdings was slain, and the Asdings were on the verge of being overwhelmed and collapsing. Just then, the Alans under Respendial arrived on the scene pushing the Franks back. Now it was the Franks who were on the verge of defeat and collapse. Luckily, they managed to rally together, and slowly regained the upper hand. Respendial was killed, and the Alan and Asding force shattered, many being slain in the chaotic retreat.[1] The Battle of Mainz as it is called, was a decisive Frankish victory.

Britain and Northern Gaul
In Britain, Gratian hesitated to take the initiative and invade Gaul. Finally, in April or May of 407, he sailed to Gaul with his forces, landing in Bononia (Boulogne). [2] It is agreed upon by historians that his forces consisted of around 6,000 men, approximately the entire field army of Britain. The local garrisons in the area quickly threw in their lot with the usurper. However, the army in Northern Gaul did not do the same.[3] This is likely due to his failure to decisively deal with the Saxon raiders in the area, causing them to question his ability, and commitment, to defend Gaul. An already cautious commander, Gratian was put in a bad spot, as the army in Northern Gaul could easily defeat his in a pitched battle.

Furthermore, the Franks kept their allegiance to Stilicho.[4] Fresh off an impressive victory over invading tribes, and certainly not impressed by Gratians marshal ability, the Franks decided it was better to stick with Stilicho, at least for the time being. Meanwhile, when Stilicho got word of the landing in Gaul, he was confident in the Gallic army's ability to crush the upstart usurper, and thus sent little aid.

The Gallic army began its move on Gratian shortly after his landing. It is likely that talks between the two sides occurred, but nothing come of them. Gratian knew the chances of him winning a pitched battle were slim, and tried to quickly move inland, but was intercepted. There is little doubt that Gratian wanted to change course and avoid battle at all costs at least for the moment, but he was being pressured heavily from his own camp for a decisive action. If he did not prove himself soon, he must have feared being deposed by his own men for someone more aggressive. So Gratian had little choice but to do battle on unfavorable terms. Not much remains of the details of the battle, but there is one thing our ancient sources seem to be in agreement on:The battle was a crushing defeat for Gratian, who was killed at some point in the battle. What little remained of the rebel force quickly surrendered.
[1] In OTL The Franks lost leaving the borders open.
[2] In OTL Gratian hesitated to invade. The invasions of 406 made the other leaders eager to land in Gaul as quickly as possible. He was deposed and replaced by the more aggressive Constantine who invaded shortly thereafter.
[3] In OTL the Gallic Army, feeling neglected and seeing Constantine stabilize the Rhine frontier, joined him.
[4] In OTL, the Franks had just been dealt a defeat by the invaders, and so joined Constantine.
 
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Deleted member 67076

This timeline is boss, its rare to see a good late Roman one, definitely subscribing!
 
Death of Arcadius
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Bust of Arcadius​
Stilicho immediately began conscription in Illyricum after its capture. At the same time, he planned on phasing out Radagaisus' forces from his main army, replacing them with the new recruits he would be gaining from Illyricum. In this way, he would be filling out the Senate's wishes to have Rome defended by Romans, and not barbarians. What opposition that was left in the Senate would be severely weakened.

Learning from his past mistakes, Stilicho also began to turn his attention to the west, specifically northern Gaul and Britain. The near breakthrough of barbarians across the border, and the failed revolt in Britain, had convinced him that he needed to reassure these areas that the empire had not abandoned them. But first, events in the East would draw Stilicho and Honorius' attention once again.
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Western Roman Empire After Annexation of Illyricum

There was small amounts of backlash in the eastern court due to Anthemius (the praefectus praetorio Orientis) giving into Stilicho so hastily. However, the backlash was not significant, and despite minor unrestt, Anthemius and his broad coalition managed to stabalize and keep firm control of the situation in Constantinople.

Word soon reached Italy that Arcadius had died. Stilicho was in Ravenna, and Honorius was on his way to the city from Rome, at Bononia. When the rumors of Ardadius' death was confirmed, Honorius called on Stilicho to meet him in Bononia. Once he reached Bononia, Stilicho and Honorius conversed over what action they should take regarding the accession of Theodosius II, nephew of Honorius, to the eastern throne. Theodosius was only 7 years old, so his future was in serious jeopardy, should anyone manage to seize control in the east.

It seemed likely that Anthemius would survive the political turmoil that would arise following the accession to a minor to the throne, but neither Honorius nor Stilicho were certain of his loyalties to the young new emperor. Honorius, now the senior emperor of the two, decided that he would be able to exert influence over the appointments and policies in Constantinople. He asserted that he should personally travel east and oversee the installation of Theodosius as emperor, and make sure he had the proper guardians in place to look after his welfare.

Stilicho was left with a tough choice. He may have seen this as his last chance of gaining the role of parens principum of the entire empire. However, after his recent annexation of Illyricum, he must have recognized it as unlikely he would receive a positive welcome in Constantinople. On the other hand, Honorius travelling east could leave him vulnerable to being influenced by the ministers in Constnatinople, who would almost certainly be biased against Stilicho. Furthermore, if Honorius was successful, he could gain confidence which could lead to a weakening of Stilicho's position in the west.

Neither was letting Honorius stay in Italy an ideal situation either. What little opponents there were left to Stilicho in the senate, could use Stilicho's absence to influence Honorius. They would certainly use Stilicho's dissuading Honorius from travelling east and instead going himself, as leverage to convince Honorius that Stilicho thought of him as nothing more than a puppet and a pawn. The conversation dragged on, but eventually, Stilicho yielded to Honorius, and agreed to let him travel to Constantinople, while he stayed in the west.[1] Stilicho must have been sure that his position in the west was unassailable at this point, and his favor with Honorius too high, for Honorius to turn on him after his return from Cosntantinople. It was a gamble, but one he must have been certain would have concludede in his favor.

[1] In OTL Stilicho convinced Honorius he was needed in Italy due to Constantine being in Gaul, and the financial and military situation that was getting worse and worse since the invasions of 406. Stilicho never actually went though, as the political pressure from the senate was too great, and Honorius fell under the influence of Olymiodorus, eventually resulting in Stilicho's fall.
 
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Honorius In Constantinople
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Bust of Honorius

Honorius reached Constantinople in mid summer or early fall, 408. He received a very positive welcome in the city, which comes as a surprise, considering the very recent annexation of Illyricum. The 24 year old emperor met with Anthemius to discuss the situation. It seems the two got along fine, and Honorius became assured Anthemius would be looking out for Theodosius' welfare. Thus he confmirmed Anthemius' position, and made a few minor appointments, all more than likely men suggested by Anthemius.

After staying a short few months, Honorius departed Constantinople, full of confidence due to his successful mission. It is likely he received biased information against Stilicho from Anthemius and his coalition, but none of his future actions suggest his opinion of his magister militum had worsened. Upon his return to Italy in the beginning of 409, he was met with a senate satisfied with his mission.

Stilicho also seems to have been relieved at Honorius' attitude upon his return. Honorius called for them to meet in Milan, where Stilicho explained to him the situation in the west since his leaving for Constantinople. It was more or less the same as it had been. Honorius' opinion of Stilicho seemed not to have changed.

For Stilicho, this must have come as a huge relief. He had risked leaving Honorius vulnerable to be influenced by his opponents in Constantinople, and luckily, everything worked out. Honorius had gained confidence in himself, but this could be seen by Stilicho as a good thing. If anything, Stilicho hoped it would make him less susceptible to the influence of his opponents in Rome.
 
For anyone wondering about how vitally important Illyricum is to the western empire, there's this: In the period 350–476 shows that in the Western army, the Illyricum and Gaul dioceses together provided 52% of total recruits
 
Reasserting Authority In Gaul and Britain
By 409,the reshuffling of the army and recruitment in Illyricum was going well. At this time, Radagaisus' forces were mostly phased out of the army. Some 4-6 thousand of them were settled in Illyricum to help Alaric properly defend his newly enlarged domain. Most of the rest were paid off and disbanded, but it is likely that a couple thousand remained in Stilicho's army. In their place, were fresh Illyicum recruits.


Throughout the campaign season in 409, Stilicho lead a campaign along northern Gaul and Rhine frontier. The attempted barbarian invasion in late 406 encouraged Stilicho to re-establish Roman supremacy in the area, and force the barbarians along the border to submit. No significant battles occurred, but Stilicho achieved his goals.

The campaign also had the effect of gaining experience and confidence for his newly recruited troops. Freshly recruited limitanei were placed along the border. This is a divergence from his earlier policy of removing the limitanei from the borders and converting them to psuedo-comitatenses. He no longer felt the need to increase their loyalty to him, and now had a much large recruitment pool seperate from the senate, that allowed him to place Romans on the border.

Northern Gaul certainly felt the impact, as evidence shows the inhabitants started to move back off the hilltop settlements, and back onto the large cities. The border was stabalized, and an agreement was even reached with the Franks, renewing and confirming their federate status in the empire.

Stilicho now turned to Britain. All that was left of Britain's field army was the 1,500 or so soldiers who surrendered after the defeat of Gratian. Stilicho, now sent over 4 legions (approximately 4,000 men) over to the island, to sure up its defenses. It is clear he intended to send a message to the islands inhabitants that the empire had not abandoned them. Clearly Britain got the message, as no revolt or serious unrest would arise there throughout this time.
 

Deleted member 67076

Looks the butterflies are starting to flap their wings, anyway this is getting good:)
 
If and when the Western Roman Empire stabilizes - will it territorially expand in future generations (such as to Caledonia/Alba (Scotland), Hibernia (Ireland), Germania Magna and thus expand into Central Europe and Eastern Europe)? Will Christianity in the Western Roman Empire be Roman Catholicism? Please let me know. Than you. :)
 
If and when the Western Roman Empire stabilizes - will it territorially expand in future generations (such as to Caledonia/Alba (Scotland), Hibernia (Ireland), Germania Magna and thus expand into Central Europe and Eastern Europe)? Will Christianity in the Western Roman Empire be Roman Catholicism? Please let me know. Than you. :)

Nar. Even the ERE - much the richer and more populous of the two - never managed to do any expanding. Even its reconquests of former Roman territory were mostly temporary. In the end, its greater strenth just made for a slower and harder fought retreat. Ironically, this led to a far more complete eradication of Graeco-Roman culture than happened in the west. Most likely, the WRE still falls, but a couple of centuries later, and with far more borderlands depopulated and settled by Barbs. The linguistic boundary between Romance and Germaic tongues might run along the Seine and the Po.

The Church probably remains more a department of state, as it did in the east, so converted peoples are apt to insist on having Patriarchs of their own, as in the Orthodox world.
 
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