Sticking To Expectations - Giuliani '08

If this has been done to death I apologise, and if possible I'd like to be directed to a megathread on the subject. However, if not:

I propose this become a megathread to discuss one of the more interesting turns of events in recent political History - the failure of America's Mayor to secure the Republican nomination. The questions, as I see them (my answers to some of them will follow when we have a discussion going):

1. How does Giuliani get the nomination?
2. Who does he surpass/anger/curry favour with along the way?
3. Who does he pick as his running mate?
4. Who do the Dems put up if it looks like Rudy is going to be the nominee? Obama again? Hillary?
5. Does Giuliani win the General?
6. If not, why, and what would need to change (ASB or otherwise) for him to succeed?
7. If he did win somehow, what would his administration, and America today (say, by the 2010 midterms) be like?
 
Wasn't Giuliani's problem that he focused on Florida to much, thinking that a big victory there would propell him into Super Tuesday?
 
1. McCain does not run.
2. He curries favor with McCain and major figures on the Religious Right. Easier than it sounds. Pat Robertson endorsed Giuliani in the primaries.
3. Mark Sanford would be interesting. Maybe Sam Brownback or Fred Thompson.
4. Obama.
5. No. Guiliani does better than McCain, but loses in a closer contest. VA, IN, NH, and maybe NY are gained, but MO is lost. NC likely still breaks for Obama.
6. Hard to get Giuliani to win. Rob Portman as his running mate? Herman Cain?
7. Small HC reform if at all, a Congress narrowly passing budgets meant to shrink government. The biggest issue of the 2010 election cycle are renewing the Bush Tax Cuts.
 
1. McCain does not run.
I think if you kick Huckabee out, you'd deprive the Religious Right of a major candidate and make it easier.
2. He curries favor with McCain and major figures on the Religious Right. Easier than it sounds. Pat Robertson endorsed Giuliani in the primaries.
Guliani REALLY angered Ron Paul and his supporters with his remarks in that debate. (Including Michael Scheuer, former head of the CIA's Bin Laden unit.) If Guliani wins, perhaps Ron Paul may be even more vocal in opposition?
3. Mark Sanford would be interesting. Maybe Sam Brownback or Fred Thompson.
The main problem with Sanford is his opposition (quiet) to Iraq.
4. Obama.
Very likely. (Hillary might be on the ticket as VP...which could be good, bad or both, IMHO...)
5. No. Guiliani does better than McCain, but loses in a closer contest. VA, IN, NH, and maybe NY are gained, but MO is lost. NC likely still breaks for Obama.
IMHO, it's hard to say.
6. Hard to get Giuliani to win. Rob Portman as his running mate? Herman Cain?
Perhaps no Kerik scandal, more Obama scandals, a terrorist attack or two...
7. Small HC reform if at all, a Congress narrowly passing budgets meant to shrink government. The biggest issue of the 2010 election cycle are renewing the Bush Tax Cuts.
We'd be at war with Iran.
 
I do not see how Giuliani gets the nomination. He might be tough on crime and fiscally conservative, but Rudy is pro-gun control, pro-choice and a social liberal generally. He loses Iowa, South Carolina and most of the South. Simply no base to stand on. Sorry folks, but he's too liberal for today's GOP as a presidential nominee.
 
If he didn't bring up 9/11 every 5 seconds and try to connect it to everything he ever talked about, it'd helped. Rudy Guiliani became a true to life stereotype of himself at that point.
 
I do not see how Giuliani gets the nomination. He might be tough on crime and fiscally conservative, but Rudy is pro-gun control, pro-choice and a social liberal generally. He loses Iowa, South Carolina and most of the South. Simply no base to stand on. Sorry folks, but he's too liberal for today's GOP as a presidential nominee.

John McCain was for campaign finance reform, for Amnesty, and in the past opposed to the religious right. These things did not stop him from winning in South Carolina and elsewhere. Thus, substituting Giuliani for McCain seems like a good starting point for a viable Giuliani candidacy in 2008. Of course, the former mayor also has to be a better campaigner andhave a campaign which is better run all around.
 
One thing remarked upon in Game Change was that Giuliani didn't really seem to want the presidency. He was supposed to be a tough guy and whenever someone attacked him in a debate he would smile and make a lame joke. He needs to find the mojo.
 
One thing remarked upon in Game Change was that Giuliani didn't really seem to want the presidency. He was supposed to be a tough guy and whenever someone attacked him in a debate he would smile and make a lame joke. He needs to find the mojo.

That's true, although he seemed to have it for a moment in one of debates with Ron Paul. Maybe there's a POD where that exchange makes Giuliani a tougher campaigner?
 
His path to the nomination is a difficult one. First his social liberal views,especially on abortion is the biggest obstacle. Second I recently reread a newspaper article from January 07 concerning a leaked memo written by his aides. They worried that their candidate might not be willing to leave his profitable law practice and lecture schedule, that shows that as some of his noted that he might not have wanted to be president. Third his personal life, the alienated children and the ex wives. Also his arrogance.
I remember reading that he gave up on New Hampshire as the voters there did not take kindly to his traveling around the state in motorcades and asking his audience to remain in their seats as he left. I think it would have been possible. First I agree that McCain would have to refrain from running. He has to mend his arrogant ways and shake hands on the street corners of New Hampshire. After he wins the first primary and Florida, he wins the states McCain won on Super Tuesday. With Huckabee and Romney splitting the social conservative vote, he wins enough narrow primary victories to get the nomination. He goes on to lose in a historic landslide. His nomination would inspire a social conservative third party and it is 1912 again/ With the Republican vote split he can only win in the states where McCain got 60% or more of the vote: Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming and Oklahoma. Come to think of that I think the social conservative third party candidate would win Utah. My 2008 wet dream is Sarah Palin is the third party candidate so not only she on her way to the 2012 Republican nomination but she can take Alaska.
So here is how I see it:

Obama 54 % 516 electoral votes

Giuliani 30 % 14 electoral votes

Palin 14 % 8 electoral votes
 
1. By focusing on New Hampshire and Florida in the early primaries to keep momentum and then going for a strong effort on Super Tuesday
2. Ron Paul and the Libertarians are angered, as well as disgruntled Bush administration members about the whole "9/11" constant remarks
3. Sanford
4. Hillary, they feel that they need to secure New England and the East Coast. Obama as her running mate and heir apparent
5. No, Clinton wins by pretty much the same as Obama did
6. A major scandal to bring down the Dem's campaign
7. Some kind of large response to the financial crisis with a stimulus, no action on healthcare and some school reform. The BP oil spill has the same effect as it does for Obama, I would assume that the Democrats kept the House in 2008 but didn't get the filibuster proof majority, so Giuliani has trouble with legislation. I guess the Dems still get the House in 2010 but with a reduced majority due to the problems being blamed on Rudy.
 
Haley Barbour would be a good Veep pick for him. Socially conservative, and a Southern Governor.
 

bguy

Donor
If he didn't bring up 9/11 every 5 seconds and try to connect it to everything he ever talked about, it'd helped. Rudy Guiliani became a true to life stereotype of himself at that point.

Maybe if Giuliani took the Secretary of Homeland Security position and then managed an effective federal response to Katrina. That would both strengthen the Republican position overall and help keep Giuliani in the public eye (and give him something to talk about other than 9/11.) Republican primary voters might be more forgiving of Giuliani's various heresies if he is percived as the man that kept the country safe for the last 6 years, and Bush (who hasn't been politically crippled by Katrina and thus isn't radioactive in early 2008) might covertly support him both to reward a loyal cabinet secretary and to stick it to McCain.
 
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