alternatehistory.com

As we all (should) know, the United Kingdom was the first Western country to recognize the People's Republic of China after it won the Chinese Civil War, in 1950. It also, as well as having Hong Kong Island ceded to it "in perpetuity" in 1842, after the First Opium War, was leased the rest of the Hong Kong territory in 1898, for 99 years. This lease was due to expire in 1997, of course. The British and Chinese negotiated that the whole of Hong Kong would be ceded to China in 1997 (in the Sino-British Joint Declaration of 1984).

But what if, for whatever reason, 1997 rolled around and Britain was still recognizing the ROC as sole legitimate authority over China? If, say, due to US pressure or some other reason, Taiwan was still recognized by Britain as the Republic of China, and that lease comes due, what happens? Would the Taiwanese actually want Hong Kong in the first place, or would they rather Britain keep it (for now)? If the British actually did try to transfer it to them, would the mainlanders invade?
Top