Status of Hong Kong With No British Recognition of the PRC

wormyguy

Banned
As we all (should) know, the United Kingdom was the first Western country to recognize the People's Republic of China after it won the Chinese Civil War, in 1950. It also, as well as having Hong Kong Island ceded to it "in perpetuity" in 1842, after the First Opium War, was leased the rest of the Hong Kong territory in 1898, for 99 years. This lease was due to expire in 1997, of course. The British and Chinese negotiated that the whole of Hong Kong would be ceded to China in 1997 (in the Sino-British Joint Declaration of 1984).

But what if, for whatever reason, 1997 rolled around and Britain was still recognizing the ROC as sole legitimate authority over China? If, say, due to US pressure or some other reason, Taiwan was still recognized by Britain as the Republic of China, and that lease comes due, what happens? Would the Taiwanese actually want Hong Kong in the first place, or would they rather Britain keep it (for now)? If the British actually did try to transfer it to them, would the mainlanders invade?
 
An interesting scenario, but if the British cede Hong Kong to Taiwan, then you touch off a war. If Britain does not cede Hong Kong to the PRC, then you touch off a war. It's a no win situation for the UK.
 
It would really depend on the foreign policy of the United States. Does the United States recognize the government of the People's Republic of China as the legitimate government of China? Is the United States willing to go to war against the People's Liberation Army to defend Hong Kong, Kowloon, and the New Territories?

If the United States does not recognize the PRC, then I believe that the UK would be in a position to either renew the lease for Kowloon and the New Territories and give them to the Republic of China (Taiwan).

If the only change in the OTL is that the UK does not recognize the PRC, the UK would have gotten international pressure to either give Hong Kong back to the PRC or negotiate a new lease with the PRC.
 
Well without the '84 treaty at most they give the territory back and keep the Island, which would still be the UKs. Considering the residents weren't thrilled with joining the PRC OTL, they'd presumably be really against it here.
 
I had a thread similar to this a while ago here. major point was that HK didn't have its own water source. If it wanted to the PRC could afford to blockade the city indefinitely and it becomes a resource drain on the UK.

With a hostile PRC on the border refusing to do business with any one from HK it wouldn't be a very attractive investment destination.
 

perfectgeneral

Donor
Monthly Donor
Maybe if recognition of the PRC was linked to ceding Guangdong province* to Hong Kong for all time? I don't think they would agree to that though. Not even if UK forces occupied Guangdong. The PRC would rather go to war. You might sweeten it with trade deals and a one off payment, but national identity and ideology would still get in the way.

(*and the leasehold area in between)

If you could get Guangdong (instead of all those port concessions in the original treaty say) province then you have water and enough hills around your territory to defend it.
 
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Advance the technology of, and make affordable, desalination plants.

Once you have that the PRC threat to blockade is meaningless.
 

King Thomas

Banned
Unless the UK does something crazy like give Hong Kong nuclear weapons (which might cause nuclear war) then China can just take the area over by force any time after about 1960.
 
Maybe if recognition of the PRC was linked to ceding Guangdong province* to Hong Kong for all time? I don't think they would agree to that though. Not even if UK forces occupied Guangdong. The PRC would rather go to war. You might sweeten it with trade deals and a one off payment, but national identity and ideology would still get in the way.

(*and the leasehold area in between)

If you could get Guangdong (instead of all those port concessions in the original treaty say) province then you have water and enough hills around your territory to defend it.
All of it? That's like cedeing the U.S. West Coast! Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and Macao for that matter(unless China wants a detached territory)?
 
Advance the technology of, and make affordable, desalination plants.

Once you have that the PRC threat to blockade is meaningless.

That won't work. A blockade could include a sealed border between Hong Kong and the PRC - that would be all foods, materials and people will have to come in via air or sea. The colony would probably be choked economically and starved. The British really aren't in any position to NOT return Hong Kong to the Chinese.
 

Tellus

Banned
In such a scenario, Britain would probably negociate with Taiwan to prolong or renew the lease on HK. The PRC would be far more likely to get bellicose if HK changed hands under its nose, than if the status-quo was maintained for some technical reason for a delimidated timeframe.

Its likely that without British recognition, though, the PRC might never wait for the 90s and try to take HK by force much earlier. I dont think the West would go to war over it, it would look - at least during a certain timeframe - like a legitimate response to being snubbed by the West diplomatically.
 
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