State of the US economy, military etc. without an entry into World War II?

Assuming the Second World War begins and ends without any sort of intervention by the United States (the threat of Germany and Japan either peters out or is crushed by the other powers), then what would be the changes to American industry, economics, policy, and military, in the aftermath of the 'triumph' of isolationism? Generally speaking, what is the USA like in the following decades? Is what Eisenhower termed the 'military-industrial complex' avoided? Does America grow into foreign affairs outside the American continent, or does it keep its limits in the New World? Does it generally shift to the left or to the right?
 

tenthring

Banned
Assuming the Second World War begins and ends without any sort of intervention by the United States (the threat of Germany and Japan either peters out or is crushed by the other powers), then what would be the changes to American industry, economics, policy, and military, in the aftermath of the 'triumph' of isolationism? Generally speaking, what is the USA like in the following decades? Is what Eisenhower termed the 'military-industrial complex' avoided? Does America grow into foreign affairs outside the American continent, or does it keep its limits in the New World? Does it generally shift to the left or to the right?

For a POD, let's just say that Nazi Germany never gets off the ground (is stopped at the Rhineland, Czechs, Poland, etc). Something where the Battle of France never happens.
 
For a POD, let's just say that Nazi Germany never gets off the ground (is stopped at the Rhineland, Czechs, Poland, etc). Something where the Battle of France never happens.

Yes, that's what I was thinking. I'm not so sure on what could stop Japan, maybe seeing Germany trip and fall on its face makes the Japanese more cautious in provoking the other powers (Britain, France, the USSR, the Netherlands and America are not distracted by outside events, Japan can't turn the West Pacific into its personal pool, so agrees to end the Sino-Japanese War peacefully, or caves in after a bit of military pressure). The main point is that 'World War II' barely makes a mark compared to OTL, instead staying as two separate, local wars that are quietly resolved.
 
There are still some things that need to be addressed. Do the Japanese eventually back of in China? If there is no WWII in Europe I don't think that the Japanese would be foolish enough to try to take on the US and the European powers without any distraction on their part. Of course I could be wrong.:confused: I think that the US would still be isolationist and probably just concerning itself with the Western hemisphere.
 
I think if Nazi Germany never "got off the ground" and therefore there was no war in Europe to distract Britain (and France) the Japansese might well be less likely to enact their plan to overtake and dominate the Pacific, given that the European powers would have more resources with which to counter them.

Then again, IOTL, Japan pre-emptively attacked a geographically isolated and neutral USA, knowing that the US if it wanted did not need to intervene in Europe at all, and could concentrate ALL of it's substantial industrial and therefore military potential. What's to stop them thinking they can do the same with Britain and France, knowing that realistically Britain could never move ALL of it's fleet into the far east.

Therefore I think at some point it is inevitable that the US face down the threat of Japan on it's Pacific flank, whether there's a war in Europe or not.
 
maybe the war start in 39 with the invasion of Czechslovakia and things don't go well for Germany quickly, Italy remain neutral and Japan after trying to use the european distraction to built his empire...it's cumberstomped.

If things end quickly the big European powers will not be devastated and in general the US economy will not benefit as OTL of the orders from UK, France and the other neutrals...this mean that there will be a lot less industrial grown now and in the future as there will a competion instead of ruined nation.
Military well they will remain behind the european nation, as there will be no incentive for military building, except naturally the Navy
 
There are still some things that need to be addressed. Do the Japanese eventually back of in China? If there is no WWII in Europe I don't think that the Japanese would be foolish enough to try to take on the US and the European powers without any distraction on their part. Of course I could be wrong.:confused: I think that the US would still be isolationist and probably just concerning itself with the Western hemisphere.

I was assuming that Japan would 'cave in', that is, slowly climb down from its aggressive stance following the fall of the Axis in Europe. France and Britain is undistracted from their colonies and can send ample reinforcements, the Soviets have more strength gathered at the Manchurian border, possibly enough for an immediate counterattack, and US still could send endless supplies to China if it wants. There just isn't a window of opportunity for Japan, not even a perceived one, better to slow down the war machine, build the economy and industry, and wait for a good chance.
 
Assuming the Second World War begins and ends without any sort of intervention by the United States (the threat of Germany and Japan either peters out or is crushed by the other powers), then what would be the changes to American industry,..

WWII caused a massive reconstriuction & expansion of US industry. ie: The aicraft industry went from a 1938 capacity of under 10,000 aircraft engines per year to over 300,000 per year at the peak in 1944. In the case of the railwaysclose to half the tracks & support were rebuilt during the war, the balance had a complete mainitnace & improvement program. Obsolete & worthless lines were removed & material salvaged.

It was the same across the board, but more important that the physical plant was the conversion of the Depression era labor. Millions of unemployed and unskilled became semi skilled and skilled workers. Millions of others still working with obsolete skills were brought up to the latests skill levels. At the end of 1944 the US had recovered a ultra modern and highly productive labor force. This included production supervisors and higher management who who had learned a high standard of efficiency in daily operations.

economics,

The US controled in 1945 the balance of the usable capitol of the globe.

and military,

The US Army remains a small cadre of officers & NCOs educating themselves for a furure war. The few development projects under way would continue & as economic recovery occured some of the projects of the 1920s would be revived. A few experimental formations would receive new material, but the bulk of the Army and National guard would remain equipped for a war of 1919.

The navy would continue much of the development of OTL, but in smaller numbers. ie: the BB classes planned in the 1930s would be built but one or two fewer in each class. Just two or three of the Essex class carriers would be built to replace the oldest carriers, and their construction dragged out. they might not even be laid down until 1944. The same for all the other ship types through the 1940s.

in the aftermath of the 'triumph' of isolationism?

Isolationism of the interwar is frequently misunderstood. Its effect was to with hold US support for the former Entente nations vs German resuergency & Facism. Particularly the French democracy. However US intervention in Europe did occur. Things like midwifing affordable loans to Germany in the 1920s & the Nuetrality Acts influenced European politics as surely as written treaties.

Beyond that isolationists seem to have not applied to Asia. Through the interwar years the US kept a naval force permanetly in Chinese territory, & in 1927-28 sent a mixed expeditionary force of Navy, Marines, and Army. The naval base on Luzon PI was slowly improved, and the Army forces in PI improved. Oahu had its old Pearl harbor coaling station turned into a major naval base. On the political side the US was active in Chinese and Japanese international and internal affairs. That slacked off somewhat in the 1930s, but that was as much to do with Depression economics & specific politics of the Roosevelt administation.

Without WWII the US remains economically crippled into the 1940s & perhaps beyond. The other industrial nations have their industry and labor forces intact, their cities not burned to the ground. The US likely remains a "Sleeping Giant" into the 1950s and beyond.
 
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