State of Hinduism without the Mughal Empire's rapid expansion and collapse

The state of Hinduism in the Mughal Empire is something that is unexplored in AH. According to Muslim Civilization in India by S.M. Ikram:

In relation to Islam, Hinduism exhibited a new vigor, greater self-confidence, and even a spirit of defiance. Hinduism is not generally thought of as a missionary religion, and it is often assumed that during Muslim rule conversions were only from Hinduism to Islam. This is, however, not true. Hinduism by now was very much on the offensive and was absorbing a number of Muslims./18/ When Shah Jahan returned from Kashmir, in the sixth year of his reign, he discovered that Hindus of Bhadauri and Bhimbar were forcibly marrying Muslim girls and converting them to the Hindu faith. At death these women were cremated according to the Hindu rites. Jahangir had tried to stop this practice but with no success, and Shah Jahan also issued orders declaring [[233]] such marriages unlawful. Four thousand such conversions are said to have been discovered. Many cases were also found in Gujarat and in parts of the Punjab. Partly to deal with such cases, and partly to conform to his early notions of an orthodox Muslim king, Shah Jahan established a special department to deal with conversions. After the tenth year of his reign, he seems to have ceased trying to prevent the proselytizing activities of the Hindus. There are several later cases of the conversion of Muslims, not recorded by the court historians. A number of Muslims—including at least two Muslim nobles, Mirza Salih and Mirza Haider—were converted to Hinduism by the vairagis, the wandering ascetics of the Chaitanya movement, which had become a powerful religious force in Bengal. There were also cases of conversions from Islam to Sikhism. When Guru Hargovind took up his residence at Kiratpur in the Punjab some time before 1645, he is said to have succeeded in converting a large number of Muslims. It was reported that not a Muslim was left between the hills near Kiratpur and the frontiers of Tibet and Khotan. His predecessor, Guru Arjan, had proselytized so actively that he incurred Jahangir's anger, and, as Jahangir mentions in his autobiography, the Hindu shrines of Kangra and Mathura attracted a number of Muslim pilgrims.

The Hindu position was so strong that in some places Aurangzeb's order for the collection of jizya was defied. On January 29, 1693, the officials in Malwa sent a soldier to collect jizya from a zamindar called Devi Singh. When he reached the place, Devi Singh's men fell upon him, pulled his beard and hair, and sent him back empty-handed. The emperor thereupon ordered a reduction in the jagir of Devi Singh. Earlier, another official had fared much worse. He himself proceeded to the jagir to collect the tax, but was killed by the Hindu mansabdar. Orders to destroy newly built temples met with similar opposition. A Muslim officer who was sent in 1671 to destroy temples at the ancient pilgrimage city of Ujjain was killed in a riot that broke out as he tried to carry out his orders.

Muslim historians, in order to show the extreme orthodoxy of Aurangzeb, have recorded many reports of temple destruction. On a closer scrutiny, however, there seem to be good grounds for believing [[234]] that all the reports were not correct, and that quite often no action was taken on imperial orders. We read, for example, about the destruction of a certain temple at Somnath during the reign of Shah Jahan and again under Aurangzeb. It is likely that in this and in many similar cases, the temple was not destroyed on the first order. According to accounts by English merchants, Aurangzeb's officers would leave the temples standing on payment of large sums of money by the priests./19/ However, new temples whose construction had not been authorized were often closed.

If the situation is closely examined, it appears that the complaint of Shaikh Ahmad that under Muslim rule as it existed in India, Islam was in need of greater protection than other religions does not appear to have been completely unfounded. Aurangzeb tried, of course, to reverse this trend, and some other rulers also had occasional spells of Islamic zeal, either from political or religious causes. But by and large, it is perhaps fair to say that during Muslim rule, Islam suffered from handicaps which almost outweighed the advantages it enjoyed as the religion of the ruling dynasty. This paradox becomes understandable if the basic Muslim political theory is kept in mind, under which the non-Muslim communities, so long as they paid certain taxes, were left to manage their own affairs. This local and communal autonomy severely circumscribed the sovereignty of the Muslim state, and in most matters the caste guilds and the village panchayats exercised real sovereignty, which they naturally utilized to safeguard their creed and way of life. It was this power which enabled them to evade, or even defy, unwelcome orders from the capital.

The most important stuff is in bold. Hinduism did very well despite the Islamic nature of the Mughal Empire, far better than one would expect from an empire commonly viewed as proto-Muslim nationalist and anti-Hindu. Had Aurangzeb not been ruler of India, either at all or if his reign was sufficiently restricted (say, if Prince Akbar successfully overthrew him in 1680), the overstretching and collapse of the Mughal Empire thanks to his conquest would not have occurred. In such a Mughal Empire, it seems that the state of Hinduism would be pretty good, maybe even better than OTL with a stable and prosperous empire for Hindus to proselytize in rather than the unstable borders of the period IOTL. Note as well that the Chaitanya Vaishnavites referenced above also went beyond the Mughal Empire's borders, where they converted Manipur. Even today, the Meitei people, the dominant ethnic group in the region, are Hindus unlike virtually every other ethnic group in the region. With a stable Mughal Empire, would they continue to proselytize in Northeast India, resulting in this region being Hindu-majority?
 
I suppose it's possible that a lot of the new Hindu movements of the 1700s and 1800s which focused on propagating the influence of one specific Guru or another might enjoy appeal across more regions. You might see a world where BAPS isn't so heavily focused on Gujarat, maybe.

Generally, I feel like the visibility/power of Hinduism in a longer-lasting Mughal Empire would depend on the degree of centralization that the Empire goes on to achieve. If its officials are able to skirt the power of the panchayats and actually enforce the directives of the center, a lot more anti-Hindu directives could end up actually enforced. By contrast, if local actors with more interest in building temples end up maintaining/adding onto their relevance, then you'll see more temples built.

As for Northeast India, I'd say the success of Hinduism there is less dependent on conditions in the Mughal Empire and more dependent on the political organization of the locals. The Manipuri decision to adopt Hinduism came only after the formation of a Meitei kingdom, which then invited Hindu intellectuals to its court-- a court which would then go on to fund a local class of Sanksrit-literate administrators and priests until the Burmese kidnapped them all. There's also other examples of Northeastern tribal states looking to affiliate with Hinduism (Koch Behar, the Ahom kingdom), and examples of non-state tribal people (the Naga) being non-Hindu today. A Hindu-majority Northeast would have to be one where more tribal peoples form states and then seek to strengthen them by adopting Indian administrative/cultural influence.
 
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