STARSTUFF--Sagan '88

[TooManyIdeas]

The nitrogen in our DNA, the calcium in our teeth, the iron in our blood, the carbon in our apple pies were made in the interiors of collapsing stars. We are made of starstuff.
--Carl Sagan

From the Stars to America 1988 campaign ad

S T A R S T U F F
What if Carl Sagan ran for president?

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"All right, class, it's election year again, and that means we're focusing on the American electoral process. We will be learning through the case study of the election of 1988. ...Yes, the one with the...'scientist dude'. It really hasn't been that long, historically speaking, you all should really know this one better. But that's why I am here to teach you.​

"1988 was a milestone for several reasons. First, it marked the start of the paradigm shift we now see coming to a head here in 2016. Second, it was the closest election since 1968, and the first of the down-to-the-wire elections we're used to today. Third, it was the first time someone without any political or military experience won the presidency, as well as the first time a scientist won the presidency. Overall, it was a true landmark for modern politics.

"Hm? Yes, Audrey? ...Oh, good, someone knows his name, at least. Carl Sagan, yes. Hm? ...Why did he run? That's actually a very good question. He doesn't quite seem the type to be interested in the office, especially in hindsight of his laid-back style of governance.

"You see, Sagan did not initially choose to run. He was chosen himself."

--Mrs. Amelia Lenard, in a class at Pullman High, Seattle, Washington

"And after '84, they said, 'Well, drat, that didn't go well! How do we win now?' And they said, 'We need a celebrity, but not one of those silly actors now. We need a smart celebrity.' And that's how it starts. Never trust a smart celebrity."

-- George Carlin, in a classic 1996 routine

 

[TooManyIdeas]

Dukakis on Presidency: "Not This Time"
--New York Times, Janurary 14th, 1987

Mondale 88--The Definition of Insanity?
--Boston Globe, Janurary 16th, 1987

Who do you support for the 1988 Democratic ticket?
Walter Mondale - 34.8%
Jesse Jackson - 32.7%
Al Gore - 29.9%
Other - 2.8%

"I'm gonna be honest with you, Tom. It's all bad."
--Anonymous aide to House Majority Leader Tom Foley, Janurary 17th, 1987
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I could say it started as a joke, but that would be a lie. We really thought Dukakis was going to be our guy, so when he said no, we were desperate. We knew Mondale wasn't going to go well, for sure.

Now, of course, we were thinking about Bush. And you know, Bush didn't exactly look like the type who would appeal to young voters. Establishment Republican, connected to the last eight years of Reagan, looked older. That was a weakness, and we asked how we could sieze that weakness.

I don't remember who, but someone floated the idea of Carl Sagan. I said, "No, we don't even know if he's a Democrat."

They replied quickly. "Of course he's a Democrat, he's a scientist."

We all had a quick laugh at that, and then I leaned in. "He doesn't have it," I said.

"Why not? He's good on TV, and people who watched his show as kids are getting old enough to vote now. He's got the name recognition."

"He's probably not even interested. He's a scientist, as you said. Not a politician."

"Can't hurt to ask."

Well, that was correct, at least. We could at least scout it out. Asking wouldn't hurt.

--Tom Foley, My Role in the Cosmos

 

[TooManyIdeas]

As the Tower Board reported, what began as a strategic opening to Iran deteriorated in its implementation into trading arms for hostages.
-President Regan addresses nation on Iran-Contra Affair, March 4th, 1987[1]

Gary Hart Withdraws
Democratic Field Shrinking Rapidly
--New York Times, March 13th, 1987

CARL SAGAN FOR PRESIDENT
An Interview with the Famed Astrophysicist who Wants to Inspire America
-- Time Magazine, April 1987 issue
​

BUSH: They have got to be kidding. He won't win the nomination.
ATWATER: I think we want him to.
BUSH: He's unelectable.
ATWATER: Exactly. If they nominate him, this will be a walk in the park. We want him to win the nomination.
--America: The Story of Us History Channel miniseries

Who do you support for the 1988 Democratic ticket?

Carl Sagan - 51.1%
Jesse Jackson - 30%
Walter Mondale - 10.1%
Al Gore - 8%
Other - 1.9%
​

The initial poll boost was incredible. It was beyond our wildest dreams. We knew it wouldn't hold, but it gave us hope. Here, we had someone who could get a message across.

We talked a lot about his divorces. That was going to be an issue. So were his religious beliefs. We couldn't have anticipated just how big it would be, of course--how Bush would pull out all the stops. But it would have been beyond naive to ignore.

But me, I wasn't concerned, not from thinking he was just that charismatic, but from still thinking he didn't really have his skin in the game. A lot of celebrities say they'll run and give up around June or July of the off-year. Even nowadays, that happens. A lot of people thought he'd be the same way, and I was the same. I was preparing for Jackson.

He never seemed like the type to me. Ever. But I suppose I can't be considered reliable authority.
- Tom Foley, My Role in the Cosmos

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​

[1] OTL quote

 

[TooManyIdeas]

"Tear Down This Wall!"
Sagan weighs in

"I look forward to a time when all walls between nations can be torn down, not out of some vain hope for a political victory, but because humans should not be divided from other humans. I join President Reagan in his plea to Gorbachev, though perhaps not for the same reasons. Certainly, we can at least agree on the hope for eventual reunification of Germany and the world."
--Carl Sagan, in an interview with CBS News, June 14th, 1987
​

"What's interesting about Sagan's response to Reagan's speech, I think, was that he didn't have to address it at all. It was receiving relatively little coverage in Western media before his comments[1], and he could have let it slip by without controversy. But he chose to respond to it and invite the controversy anyway.

"Hm. Can anyone tell me why he might have chosen to do that...? Anyone?

"Audrey? ...Ah, yes, that's a good theory. He saw a political opportunity and seized it. To be infamous is to be famous, better to target your base than people you can't win over, so on and so forth.

"But there is a flaw in that theory. Carl Sagan was not a normal politican. One of the biggest criticisms people have of his presidency today was that he was too passive. That he didn't grab at enough opportunities. So it seems odd that he would simply take the moment to jab at the president. Anyone else have ideas?

"Percy? ...He just wanted to. See... I hear everyone laughing, thinking that's lazy. But I think that's exactly it. He wanted to use his popularity at the time to spread his message of peace."

--Mrs. Amelia Lenard

Sagan Plummets in Polls Following Reagan Comments
Jackson and Sagan Neck-and-Neck
--New York Times, June 17th, 1987

"They've placed all their hopes on a goddamn bleeding heart."
--George H.W. Bush, in leaked conversation with Lee Atwater

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[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tear_down_this_wall!#Response_and_legacy

 

[TooManyIdeas]

Sagan's Campaign Promise: Mars by the Millennium
--Boston Globe, December 2nd, 1987

What Kennedy did was ignite the nation into action. We can do it again, and this time, we do not need some race with another country to motivate us, only our own race with ourselves, always striving for new heights and new discoveries.
--Carl Sagan, shortly after NASA announces new contracts, December 1st, 1987
​

NARRATOR: Sometimes, Democrats will try to justify tax hikes with some pretense. What pretense does Sagan provide? ...Going to Mars? Mr. Sagan, America is on Earth!
--Attack ad paid for by the Bush campaign (ran from December 1987 throughout the campaign)

INTERVIEWER: We got a lot of real nice quotes out of that time. Did you have anything to do with those?
CARVILLE: Oh, no, this was before he hired me. We look back on it nice now, but the early stuff, the '87 stuff, it was a mess. Young people liked it and it completely whiffed with everyone else.
INTERVIEWER: Why was that? He was a good speaker.
CARVILLE: Yeah, but he wasn't taking it seriously just yet. He didn't expect to win, he was using the spotlight for activism.
INTERVIEWER: What made him change his tune on that, do you think?
CARVILLE: Well, I told him something on my first day with him, and I'll tell it to you, too. Activists say we should go to Mars. President's tell people to go to Mars, and then they actually go do it.
--Interview with James Carville, Sagan's campaign manager, on CNN, June 2004

Who do you support for the 1988 Democratic ticket?

Jesse Jackson - 40%
Carl Sagan -20.5%
Al Gore - 15.5%
Walter Mondale - 3.4%
Other - 2.6%

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​

Up next: The Democratic primary debate.

 

[TooManyIdeas]

Sagan "Smashes" Opponents in Primary Debate
"Rollercoaster" polls back on the upswing for astrophysicist
-New York Times, Janurary 25th, 1988
​

"The debate was when Sagan refined his message into something the American people truly wanted. After all, it was settings like these where he thrived most--settings not too far from his academic roots. A debate was a battle he could win far easier than a rally or a barnstorming tour.

"In addition, his campaign manager, James Carville, helped him turn his messages into something that would resonate. He put aside the foreign policy and the space ideals, and focused on pragmatic domestic policy. It was the polar opposite of Reagan's policies--which was the point. After eight years, and especially after the Iran-Contra Affair, Americans wanted something new and different. Sagan delivered. Major expansions to all public services, a universal healthcare system, a national housing program.

"When asked if he was a socialist, he said that he shouldn't have to be a socialist to care about the people of the country.

"This was also, in my mind, the moment Jesse Jackson lost the nomination. He came off too firebrand, and didn't have Sagan's speaking ability to back it up.

"Oh, a question, yes, Audrey? ...Mmm, his race likely played a factor as well, unfortunately. We don't see a black man running for president as odd now, but in 1988, it was rather... odd. I would say the lack of experience was a larger factor, but then, Sagan wasn't experienced either.

"...Was race largest factor? I... cannot answer that right now. I believe it would best to save these sorts of questions for later review, Audrey."

--Mrs. Amelia Lenard

Mondale Drops Out, Endorses Gore
--New York Times, Janurary 29th, 1988

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Sagan's political beliefs are drawn from here. Also, take Mrs. Lenard's comments on race as you will for now.

 

[TooManyIdeas]

GORE SWEEPS IOWA
'Saganmania' routed utterly in first results
--New York Times, Feburary 9th, 1988

Sagan Picks Up NH Win
Further Northeastern Victories Expected
--Concord Monitor, Feburary 17th, 1988

South Dakota Another Early Win for Gore
Minnesota Won by Mondale, Expected to Vote Gore at Convention
--USA Today, February 25th, 1988

Sagan Takes Maine
Northeast Taken by Saganmania
--Boston Herald, Febrary 29th, 1988
​

"The Midwest results were pretty bad news for us. We could not win on Sagan's base alone. We needed either the South or the Midwest, and Gore just appealed to them more. Without a big win, we were going to be dead in the water.

"We remember the nation gripped by 'Saganmania' now, but it was actually pretty close. He wasn't a popular guy, not among the older generation. The divorces, the secularism, the borderline socialist platform... they didn't want it. It was killing us. We needed a miracle."
--James Carville, in an interview with Time Magazine, October 2000 issue

"Yet again, I am forced to question why I need be labelled a 'communist' to care for the people of America. For the people I see all around me now, you people of Florida, fellow human beings."
--Carl Sagan, in a rally in Miami, Florida, Feburary 20th, 1988

An Unlikely Challenger: Pat Robertson's Path to Victory
How the ultraconservative minister can beat Bush in the age of Carl Sagan
--Washington Post op-ed, after Robertson pulls an upset victory in Iowa, Feburary 9th, 1988

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Up next: Super Tuesday, and we check up on the Republicans.

​

 

[TooManyIdeas]

​

Pat Robertson is one of the most controversial men in America. From minister claiming he diverted a hurricane through prayer[1] to the most successful third-party candidate of the 20th Century to now being a heartbeat away from being the most powerful man on Earth, his unlikely rise has been always unpredictable and often terrifying. He's been compared to both Jesus Christ and Adolf Hitler so often that both are common jokes on both sides of the aisle.

But who is he, really? And how did America go from the Sagan Era to today's often all-too-literal 'culture war' in just five short years? In these pages, Keith Olbermann takes you on a journey, a story of powerful leaders and zealous soldiers of faith. He brings you into the mind of Pat Robertson, the unlikely Vice President, to see why he says what he does. And he tells you how the 700 Clubber shaped America as it is today.

--Back cover blurb of The 700 Clubber, by Keith Olbermann (published 2002)

ROBERTSON SWEEPS NEW HAMPSHIRE
Bush Campaign in Panic Mode?
--USA Today, Feburary 17th, 1988​

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​

[1] Yeah that was a thing OTL.

 

[TooManyIdeas]

Vermont to Sagan, Wyoming to Gore
Sagan Campaign Sweating Ahead of Super Tuesday
--USA Today, March 6th, 1988

Robertson and Bush Neck-and-Neck on Eve of Super Tuesday
Sagan Backlash Sweeping GOP Voters
--The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, March 7th, 1988
​

No one expected Pat to get as far as he already had that March night, just before Super Tuesday. He was an inexperienced businessman at best, and an old kooky Bible thumper or even cult leader at worst. Except that a Bible thumper was exactly what the GOP was asking for.

The rise of Carl Sagan terrified the conservative base. The very idea that an agnostic scientist who had been divorced twice and who espoused such shockingly communistic ideas as universial healthcare and a national housing program could gain so much ground sent them into a panic. Pat Robertson was a direct product of that panic.

Bush struggled to answer what Robertson could with a snap of his fingers. When asked about social issues, Bush said he would work to promote conservative values. Robertson said he would pass an amendment against abortion and that liberal ideas were undermining America. This was, of course, firebrand crazy

And to stop a soft-spoken man of science, voters wanted to bring a man with a flamethrower in one hand and a Bible in the other.

--Keith Olbermann, The 700 Clubber

GORE, JACKSON SWEEP SUPER TUESDAY STATES
Sagan Wins Only MA, MD, RI, WA
--New York Times, March 9th, 1988

Gore Sweeps Midwest, Takes Florida, Splits Texas
Gore Now Presumptive Nominee
--Chicago Tribune, March 9th, 1988

Carl Sagan
Al Gore
Jesse Jackson
Split Delegates--Gore and Jackson
Walter Mondale


"Carl, I'm gonna give it to you straight. We might be fucked."
--James Carville to Carl Sagan after Florida is called for Gore​

 

[TooManyIdeas]

JACKSON DROPS OUT, ENDORSES SAGAN
Surprise Endorsement puts Sagan Back in the Race
--New York Times, March 12th, 1988

​

"So at first, Jesse wanted VP. And I had to tell Carl, 'No, that's stupid.' Winning the nomination wouldn't matter if we just lost the election anyway, and we were already on the ropes with moderates. Jackson as VP was just not gonna go well.

"So instead, I told him, 'He can be Sec. of State.' He had shown some diplomatic skills already[1], so we knew he would be an acceptable pick. So that's what we told him. And, well, we thought he was gonna say no. This was all a long shot.

"But his campaign was going to be just as much of a could-have-been as ours was about to be if we didn't join forces, and I think he knew that. This way, he could accumulate experience and popularity to run in '96, 2000 or 2004. And he'd be the first black Sec. of State, too.

"And above all, he wanted Gore, a pro-life moderate conservative, to lose more than he wanted to win. And that was common ground."

--James Carville, in a 2004 CNN interview

ROBERTSON, BUSH SPLIT SUPER TUESDAY STATES
Brokered Convention Ahead?
--USA Today, March 9, 1988

Pat Robertson
George H. W. Bush
Bob Dole
​

BUSH (ENRAGED): Goddammit!

Bush hurls a wadded-up Robertson campaign poster across the room. Atwater sits silently for a moment, as Bush takes deep breaths.

ATWATER: You done?

--Script for the 2013 Netflix political thriller series The 700 Clubber, Episode 03 of Season 01, "Primaries Part One". This scene would go viral, to the chagrin of Bush, who claimed it wildly inaccurate.

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[1] https://slate.com/news-and-politics/1999/05/how-does-jesse-jackson-do-it.html