STARSTUFF--Sagan '88
- Thread starter TooManyIdeas
- Start date
@TooManyIdeas , I really can't see Jackson backing out of the race at this juncture, even with Gore now within striking distance of Sagan. Jackson's campaigns were more ideological then personal, understanding that the bids were long-shots but hoping to give a voice to African-Americans and other minorities that up to that point felt voiceless or ignored. While the man had his ambitions, I don't see why he would feel pressured to drop of the contest when the Democratic primaries were awarding their delegates proportionally rather then "winner-take-all", as provided he continues to do well he would have more negotiating power the more delegates he accrued. Gore might win a plurality of the vote and delegates certainly, but it would remain considerably short of a majority, and would leave Jackson the King-maker.
I do wish you had picked someone other than Pat Robertson to be the foil to Carl Sagan, though I understand why you've done so. The problem is that I think even at his best he would have only performed about as well as Jackson did in OTL '88, and that is because of a swathe of issues that alienated him from various constituencies, as well as a serious divide within the Christian movement lead by such figures as Jerry Falwell who were opposed to Robertson, and be moreso here if it appeared that Robertson might become the voice for Christian America. I'd argue instead that you'd be better off with James Dobson, who'd be better able to unite the various factions within the Christian Right, while also acting as yet another butterfly in your network; Dobson was largely apolitical until the Mid-2000's, but if Carl Sagan is inflaming the conservative base as much as you are saying, then Dobson almost certainly be among those voicing their opinions. There would also be a distinct lack of gaffes, least those that someone like Robertson was prone to.
I disagree with the Jackson notion, also I'm fairly certain some states were winner take all like NY. I think Jackson is more likely to drop out with a liberal ideologue as the candidate like Sagan as opposed to when Dukakis ran. Also I think it's critical he drop out during the primaries to allow for Sagan to snowball in later primaries.
I do agree with you on the topic of Pat Robertson, I think James Dobson would've been an excellent choice, but as always it's up to OP if they want to retcon
I try not to retcon on the first go, but noted if I ever do a rewrite, thank you.
No, all the primaries on the Democratic side were done proportionally at this point with the cutoff at (15%).
I've been going through the Times articles of the period to get a better feel for what Jackson was during that time, and I still don't believe that he would have dropped out. While in many ways his platform would mesh with Sagan's, they would both be in favor of universal healthcare, public housing and public services like, presumably, education. Jackson would have held almost the entirety of the black vote, but most of the white voters who had not already supported him in 1984 might well have jumped ship to Sagan. I'm not sure what that would cost Jackson in terms of votes or delegates, but it would definitely hobble him outside the South.
Jackson however seems to have always had a problem of not being the "winner", or that he was deserving of a certain level of respect and responsibility, and this became a rather major problem historically when it complicated negotiations between the Dukakis and Jackson camps. When it became clear that he was not going earn the nomination he worked to push the Democratic platform to the left, sought to pressure Dukakis into naming him his running-mate, sought influential positions within the Dukakis campaign for his supporters, and wanted extensive influence within the Presidential campaign for himself, as in the foremost crusader for the ticket. Sagan might satisfy most of those demands, but I don't know if Jackson would try to wring the most he could here given he is in a better position negotiating with Sagan than he was negotiating with Dukakis. Tax increases on the wealthy for example was a major item that didn't quite make it, nixed by Mondale's experience in 1984, and he might make it a prerequisite here for his support.
I'm also not entirely convinced that Jesse Jackson would get through the Senate for the SOS position given opposition from Jews and his support for opening negotiations with the PLO.
But for now that's all an aside.
I've been going through the Times articles of the period to get a better feel for what Jackson was during that time, and I still don't believe that he would have dropped out. While in many ways his platform would mesh with Sagan's, they would both be in favor of universal healthcare, public housing and public services like, presumably, education. Jackson would have held almost the entirety of the black vote, but most of the white voters who had not already supported him in 1984 might well have jumped ship to Sagan. I'm not sure what that would cost Jackson in terms of votes or delegates, but it would definitely hobble him outside the South.
Jackson however seems to have always had a problem of not being the "winner", or that he was deserving of a certain level of respect and responsibility, and this became a rather major problem historically when it complicated negotiations between the Dukakis and Jackson camps. When it became clear that he was not going earn the nomination he worked to push the Democratic platform to the left, sought to pressure Dukakis into naming him his running-mate, sought influential positions within the Dukakis campaign for his supporters, and wanted extensive influence within the Presidential campaign for himself, as in the foremost crusader for the ticket. Sagan might satisfy most of those demands, but I don't know if Jackson would try to wring the most he could here given he is in a better position negotiating with Sagan than he was negotiating with Dukakis. Tax increases on the wealthy for example was a major item that didn't quite make it, nixed by Mondale's experience in 1984, and he might make it a prerequisite here for his support.
I'm also not entirely convinced that Jesse Jackson would get through the Senate for the SOS position given opposition from Jews and his support for opening negotiations with the PLO.
But for now that's all an aside.
Nothing against the idea of a more successful Robertson campaign, but I've seen more than a few stories on the site now that utilize him as if he had a better than decent chance of capturing the nomination or working his way onto the Republican ticket, which simply wasn't and never would have been the case given how polarizing he was even amongst the Republican base at the time.
Your welcome; I like to nudge people in a more realistic direction with their stories, but that said I don't want that to get in the way of the story itself. I'm happy to see where it goes regardless.
I am really enjoying this TL. Very fun idea. I'm looking forward to seeing where you go with this.
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