STARSTUFF--Sagan '88

[TooManyIdeas]

Sagan "Smashes" Opponents in Primary Debate
"Rollercoaster" polls back on the upswing for astrophysicist
-New York Times, Janurary 25th, 1988
​

"The debate was when Sagan refined his message into something the American people truly wanted. After all, it was settings like these where he thrived most--settings not too far from his academic roots. A debate was a battle he could win far easier than a rally or a barnstorming tour.

"In addition, his campaign manager, James Carville, helped him turn his messages into something that would resonate. He put aside the foreign policy and the space ideals, and focused on pragmatic domestic policy. It was the polar opposite of Reagan's policies--which was the point. After eight years, and especially after the Iran-Contra Affair, Americans wanted something new and different. Sagan delivered. Major expansions to all public services, a universal healthcare system, a national housing program.

"When asked if he was a socialist, he said that he shouldn't have to be a socialist to care about the people of the country.

"This was also, in my mind, the moment Jesse Jackson lost the nomination. He came off too firebrand, and didn't have Sagan's speaking ability to back it up.

"Oh, a question, yes, Audrey? ...Mmm, his race likely played a factor as well, unfortunately. We don't see a black man running for president as odd now, but in 1988, it was rather... odd. I would say the lack of experience was a larger factor, but then, Sagan wasn't experienced either.

"...Was race largest factor? I... cannot answer that right now. I believe it would best to save these sorts of questions for later review, Audrey."

--Mrs. Amelia Lenard

Mondale Drops Out, Endorses Gore
--New York Times, Janurary 29th, 1988

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Sagan's political beliefs are drawn from here. Also, take Mrs. Lenard's comments on race as you will for now.

 

[Warer]

Love it.

 

[Pyni]

Sagan as president ? Unfortunately we don't deserve someone like him as a president, just a utopic world. But I'm really interested for the timeline, very unexpected

 

[Mark E.]

Someone who takes office in 89 can’t prevent a global recession in 1990. HW Bush was one of the most expierienced presidents in American history and he couldn’t prevent things from going awry. 89-93 is just a bad time to be in charge no matter who it is.

Americans do not elect a president based primarily on global impact. Look at 2016. Bush41's biggest downfall was that he broke his promise not to raise taxes. Sagan would not have made that promise. In that period, you had the first Gulf War and the breakup of the Soviet Union; opportunities for a president to have done right. So, I think there is a 50-50 chance Sagan can be re-elected in '92.

Another generational issue is that it puts a person born in the thirties in the white house. In 1993, we jumped from WW2 vet to Baby Boomer in one election, allowing right wing hate to broil over Clinton's avoidance of the draft with academic credentials. So while the faith-based hate is worse with Sagan, it is concentrated in the "red" sector he couldn't carry in any case. Now, can we come up with a scenario where Sagan wins support in the mountain and upper plains regions that are more secular?

 

[Zwinglian]

Americans do not elect a president based primarily on global impact. Look at 2016. Bush41's biggest downfall was that he broke his promise not to raise taxes. Sagan would not have made that promise.

If you think Americans don’t elect presidents based off of the economy you are fooling yourself. Bush didn’t lose because of no new taxes he lost because he was facing a charismatic opponent in a bad economy

 

[TooManyIdeas]

Putting out a call--anyone who could help me with graphics, the electoral primary system, 1990s British politics and/or the Gulf War is greatly appreciated!

 

[TooManyIdeas]

GORE SWEEPS IOWA
'Saganmania' routed utterly in first results
--New York Times, Feburary 9th, 1988

Sagan Picks Up NH Win
Further Northeastern Victories Expected
--Concord Monitor, Feburary 17th, 1988

South Dakota Another Early Win for Gore
Minnesota Won by Mondale, Expected to Vote Gore at Convention
--USA Today, February 25th, 1988

Sagan Takes Maine
Northeast Taken by Saganmania
--Boston Herald, Febrary 29th, 1988
​

"The Midwest results were pretty bad news for us. We could not win on Sagan's base alone. We needed either the South or the Midwest, and Gore just appealed to them more. Without a big win, we were going to be dead in the water.

"We remember the nation gripped by 'Saganmania' now, but it was actually pretty close. He wasn't a popular guy, not among the older generation. The divorces, the secularism, the borderline socialist platform... they didn't want it. It was killing us. We needed a miracle."
--James Carville, in an interview with Time Magazine, October 2000 issue

"Yet again, I am forced to question why I need be labelled a 'communist' to care for the people of America. For the people I see all around me now, you people of Florida, fellow human beings."
--Carl Sagan, in a rally in Miami, Florida, Feburary 20th, 1988

An Unlikely Challenger: Pat Robertson's Path to Victory
How the ultraconservative minister can beat Bush in the age of Carl Sagan
--Washington Post op-ed, after Robertson pulls an upset victory in Iowa, Feburary 9th, 1988

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Up next: Super Tuesday, and we check up on the Republicans.

​

 

[TheLoneAmigo]

Fascinated by this TL so far. I'm watching with interest. You seem to be avoiding utopianism while still delivering a hopeful story!

 

[TooManyIdeas]

Fascinated by this TL so far. I'm watching with interest. You seem to be avoiding utopianism while still delivering a hopeful story!

Avoiding utopianism was actually a very important factor to me. This timeline is inspired by how we hold certain figures up on a pedestal and confuse being a good person or a very intelligent person with being good at everything.

 

[steamboy]

I'm really looking forwards to this, it'll be interesting to see where you take it. And how Sagan's views on the world are viable (or not) in the time period, as you've still got the cold war raging, and he was very much a man of peace who hated nuclear weapons.

And how his pacificstic viewpoint is going to be challenged by the industrial military complex and the like. And free healthcare and the like, Regan and co are going to be stopping just short of calling him a card carrying commie.

But he's also got his strength of conviction, the very likeable warmth of personality, the charisma and presence needed. He's the Mr Rogers of Science.


Also this part

How the ultraconservative minister can beat Bush in the age of Carl Sagan
--Washington Post op-ed, after Robertson pulls an upset victory in Iowa, Feburary 9th, 1988

Intrigues me. If we get from the Republicans a split in their voting between Bush and a far more hard right wing (mainly religious right) chap, then that would weaken them both. And it this Robertson fellow (sorry not familiar with who he is) is a real religious firebrand IE NO abortions and other rollbacks on equal rights, as well as being almost violently anti-gay, then it could get other demographics leaning towards Sagan and away from the Republicans.

 

[Jack Hawksmoor]

As implausible as it is, I am nevertheless hooked to see how this goes. I cannot wait to see how would CiC Sagan deal with Iraq given the OTL controversy over his prediction of a nuclear winter. Keep up the work!

 

[steamboy]

Well wasn't it his predictions about nuclear winters and the film The Day After which helped highlight to a rather uninformed public just how devastating and world fucking a nuclear exchange would be, or at least drove it home.

Re The Day After

President Ronald Reagan watched the film several days before its screening, on November 5, 1983. He wrote in his diary that the film was "very effective and left me greatly depressed,"[20] and that it changed his mind on the prevailing policy on a "nuclear war".[23] The film was also screened for the Joint Chiefs of Staff. A government advisor who attended the screening, a friend of Meyer's, told him "If you wanted to draw blood, you did it. Those guys sat there like they were turned to stone." Four years later, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty was signed and in Reagan's memoirs he drew a direct line from the film to the signing.[20] Reagan supposedly later sent Meyer a telegram after the summit, saying, "Don't think your movie didn't have any part of this, because it did."[6] However, in a 2010 interview, Meyer said that this telegram was a myth, and that the sentiment stemmed from a friend's letter to Meyer; he suggested the story had origins in editing notes received from the White House during the production, which "...may have been a joke, but it wouldn't surprise me, him being an old Hollywood guy."[20]

The film also had impact outside the U.S. In 1987, during the era of Mikhail Gorbachev's glasnost and perestroika reforms, the film was shown on Soviet television. Four years earlier, Georgia Rep. Elliott Levitas and 91 co-sponsors introduced a resolution in the U.S. House of Representatives "[expressing] the sense of the Congress that the American Broadcasting Company, the Department of State, and the U.S. Information Agency should work to have the television movie The Day After aired to the Soviet public."[24]

 

[TooManyIdeas]

​

Pat Robertson is one of the most controversial men in America. From minister claiming he diverted a hurricane through prayer[1] to the most successful third-party candidate of the 20th Century to now being a heartbeat away from being the most powerful man on Earth, his unlikely rise has been always unpredictable and often terrifying. He's been compared to both Jesus Christ and Adolf Hitler so often that both are common jokes on both sides of the aisle.

But who is he, really? And how did America go from the Sagan Era to today's often all-too-literal 'culture war' in just five short years? In these pages, Keith Olbermann takes you on a journey, a story of powerful leaders and zealous soldiers of faith. He brings you into the mind of Pat Robertson, the unlikely Vice President, to see why he says what he does. And he tells you how the 700 Clubber shaped America as it is today.

--Back cover blurb of The 700 Clubber, by Keith Olbermann (published 2002)

ROBERTSON SWEEPS NEW HAMPSHIRE
Bush Campaign in Panic Mode?
--USA Today, Feburary 17th, 1988​

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​

[1] Yeah that was a thing OTL.

 

[Miss Teri]

Pat Robertson, the unlikely Vice President,

We're about to get real good in here....

 

[TooManyIdeas]

Vermont to Sagan, Wyoming to Gore
Sagan Campaign Sweating Ahead of Super Tuesday
--USA Today, March 6th, 1988

Robertson and Bush Neck-and-Neck on Eve of Super Tuesday
Sagan Backlash Sweeping GOP Voters
--The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, March 7th, 1988
​

No one expected Pat to get as far as he already had that March night, just before Super Tuesday. He was an inexperienced businessman at best, and an old kooky Bible thumper or even cult leader at worst. Except that a Bible thumper was exactly what the GOP was asking for.

The rise of Carl Sagan terrified the conservative base. The very idea that an agnostic scientist who had been divorced twice and who espoused such shockingly communistic ideas as universial healthcare and a national housing program could gain so much ground sent them into a panic. Pat Robertson was a direct product of that panic.

Bush struggled to answer what Robertson could with a snap of his fingers. When asked about social issues, Bush said he would work to promote conservative values. Robertson said he would pass an amendment against abortion and that liberal ideas were undermining America. This was, of course, firebrand crazy

And to stop a soft-spoken man of science, voters wanted to bring a man with a flamethrower in one hand and a Bible in the other.

--Keith Olbermann, The 700 Clubber

GORE, JACKSON SWEEP SUPER TUESDAY STATES
Sagan Wins Only MA, MD, RI, WA
--New York Times, March 9th, 1988

Gore Sweeps Midwest, Takes Florida, Splits Texas
Gore Now Presumptive Nominee
--Chicago Tribune, March 9th, 1988

Carl Sagan
Al Gore
Jesse Jackson
Split Delegates--Gore and Jackson
Walter Mondale


"Carl, I'm gonna give it to you straight. We might be fucked."
--James Carville to Carl Sagan after Florida is called for Gore​

 

[LuckyLuciano]

Well written, Love it

 

[Zwinglian]

And how did America go from the Sagan Era to today's often all-too-literal 'culture war' in just five short years?

I take it Sagan isn’t going to do a great job as president then

 

[CountDVB]

I take it Sagan isn’t going to do a great job as president then

I think it’s more that there will be a backlash

 

[TooManyIdeas]

JACKSON DROPS OUT, ENDORSES SAGAN
Surprise Endorsement puts Sagan Back in the Race
--New York Times, March 12th, 1988

​

"So at first, Jesse wanted VP. And I had to tell Carl, 'No, that's stupid.' Winning the nomination wouldn't matter if we just lost the election anyway, and we were already on the ropes with moderates. Jackson as VP was just not gonna go well.

"So instead, I told him, 'He can be Sec. of State.' He had shown some diplomatic skills already[1], so we knew he would be an acceptable pick. So that's what we told him. And, well, we thought he was gonna say no. This was all a long shot.

"But his campaign was going to be just as much of a could-have-been as ours was about to be if we didn't join forces, and I think he knew that. This way, he could accumulate experience and popularity to run in '96, 2000 or 2004. And he'd be the first black Sec. of State, too.

"And above all, he wanted Gore, a pro-life moderate conservative, to lose more than he wanted to win. And that was common ground."

--James Carville, in a 2004 CNN interview

ROBERTSON, BUSH SPLIT SUPER TUESDAY STATES
Brokered Convention Ahead?
--USA Today, March 9, 1988

Pat Robertson
George H. W. Bush
Bob Dole
​

BUSH (ENRAGED): Goddammit!

Bush hurls a wadded-up Robertson campaign poster across the room. Atwater sits silently for a moment, as Bush takes deep breaths.

ATWATER: You done?

--Script for the 2013 Netflix political thriller series The 700 Clubber, Episode 03 of Season 01, "Primaries Part One". This scene would go viral, to the chagrin of Bush, who claimed it wildly inaccurate.

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​

[1] https://slate.com/news-and-politics/1999/05/how-does-jesse-jackson-do-it.html

 

[Wendell]

Reagan is succeeded by Sagan lol