Stanley Baldwin's Successful Political Gamble: A TL from 1923

pipisme

The Conservative, Liberal and Radical Liberal ministers, and Winston Churchill left the British government on 28 January 1946. Thomas Johnston replaced them with Labour ministers. Here is the new cabinet (previous minister if different):
Prime Minister: Thomas Johnston
Lord Chancellor: Sir Stafford Cripps. He was created Lord Cripps (Lord Somervell)
Lord Privy Seal: Viscount Addison (Viscount Cranborne)
Lord President of the Council and Leader of the House of Commons: Arthur Greenwood (Anthony Eden)
Chancellor of the Exchequer: Hugh Dalton
Foreign Secretary: Clement Attlee (Hugh Seely)
Home Secretary: George Buchanan (William Wedgwood Benn)
Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food : David Grenfell (Walter Morrison)
Colonial Secretary: George Hall (Leo Amery)
Commonwealth Relations Secretary: Philip Noel-Baker
Minister of Defence: Emmanuel Shinwell (Winston Churchill)
Minister of Education: Sir Chuter Ede (Lucy Masterman)
Minister of Fuel and Power: Tom Williams (David Grenfell)
Minister of Health: Charles Key (George Buchanan)
Minister of Labour and National Service: Ellen Wilkinson
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster: Herbert Morrison (Osbert Peake)
Paymaster-General: Earl of Listowel (Arthur Greenwood)
Secretary of State for Scotland: Arthur Woodburn (Emmanuel Shinwell)
Minister of Town and Country Planning: John Hynd (Richard Acland)
President of the Board of Trade: Evan Durbin (Charles Waterhouse)
Minister of Transport: George Tomlinson (Leslie Burgin)
 
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pipisme

Here are the ministers outside the cabinet:
First Lord of the Admiralty: Albert Victor Alexander
Secretary of State for Air: John Strachey (Geoffrey Mander)
Minister of Civil Aviation: Lord Pakenham (Duke of Devonshire)
Minister of National Insurance: Wilfrid Paling (Margery Ashby)
Minister of Pensions: Edith Summerskill (Richard Austen Butler)
Postmaster-General: James Griffiths ( Alfred Ernest Brown)
Minister of Supply: Hugh Gaitskell (Ronald Cartland)
Secretary of State for War: Aneurin Bevan
Minister of Works: Lewis Silkin (Brendan Bracken)
Attorney-General: Sir Hartley Shawcross (Sir Stafford Cripps)
Solicitor-General: Sir Frank Soskice (Sir David Maxwell-Fyfe).
Selected junior ministers:
Financial Secretary to the Treasury: George Isaacs (Oliver Lyttleton)
Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasury (Government Chief Whip): William Whiteley
Minister of State Foreign Office: Hector McNeil.
 
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pipisme

On 29 January 1946, the Prime Minister announced in a statement in the House of Commons that a general election would be held on Thursday 28 February. Parliament would be dissolved on 8 February and nominations close on 18 February . Parliament would assemble on 12 March.

There was a fair amount of speculation about Liberal reunion. The Liberals and Radical Liberals entered into negotiations to limit the number of constituencies in which they competed. These were moderately successful and in only 44 constituencies were there both Liberal and Radical Liberal constituencies.
 

pipisme

Labour campaigned as the party which won the war against Italy, and attacked the Tories and Liberals as the parties which were losing the war when they were the government. Of course those two parties strongly objected to this, and accused Labour of playing the patriotic card for partisan advantage.

The hours of voting on polling day were from 7am to 9pm. When all the results were in, the number of seats in the House of Commons for each party were as follows (1944 general election) :
Labour: 332 (285)
Conservative: 182 (232)
Liberal: 90 (117)
Radical Liberal: 30 (n/a)
Independent (Winston Churchill) : 1 (n/a)
(Independent Conservative: 1)
‐-------------------------
Total: 635 (635)
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Labour's overall majority of 29 was co nsiderably less than most people expected. Churchill was re-elected as MP for Eastbourne without Liberal and Radical Liberal
opposition.

The number of seats for each party elected by AV were as follows:
Labour: 230 (196)
Conservative: 133 (167)
Liberal: 79 (101)
Radical Liberal: 22 (n/a)
Independent (Churchill): 1 (n/a)
(Independent Conservative : 1)
-‐-----------------------
Total: 435 (435)
-------------------------
Seats for each party elected by STV were as follows :
Labour: 102 (89)
Conservative : 49 (65)
Liberal: 11 (16)
Radical Liberal: 8 (n/a)
-----------------------
Total: 170 (170)
-----------------------
The percentage votes for each party were as follows:
Labour: 44.7 (41.9)
Conservative: 32.1 (35.3)
Liberal: 15.3 (21.5)
Radical Liberal: 6.5 (n/a)
Other parties and Independents: 1.4 (1.3)
-------------------------
Total: 100.0 (100.0)
--------------------------
The national swing from Conservative to Labour was 3.0%. The turnout was 74.1% (73.4%).
 
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pipisme

One of the new Labour MPs elected was Major Denis Healey, who gained Pudsey from the Tories. He served in Egypt and Libya in the war. Richard Austen Butler was defeated in Saffron Walden by the Liberal Party candidate. He was Minister of Pensions in the all party coalition government.
 
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pipisme

In February 1946, Sir Drummond Shiels was appointed British High Commissioner in Eritrea. Shiels was a Labour MP for Edinburgh and was Under-Secretary of State for India from 1934 to 1937. Also Francis Agar-Robartes, 7th Viscount Clifden, was appointed British High Commissioner in Somalia. Clifden was a Liberal Peer and Under-Secretary at the Commonwealth Relations Office from June 1944 to January 1946.
 
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EvilJam

It'll be interesting to see the effects of all these changes on:

1. The British Economy
2. The nature and size of the commonwealth (if it occurs TTL)
3. British demographics - will they go through the decades of practically no growth caused by poverty, migration and WW2 deaths/WW2 changing the role of women
 

pipisme

In Italy an all party coalition government was formed on 28 January 1946, though the Communist and Fascist parties were excluded. Italo Balbo was Prime Minister, Alcide de Gasperi, the leader of the Christian Democrat Party, was Foreign Minister, and Dino Grandi was Minister of Reconstruction. The Fascist Party was banned, but there were a few Fascists in the government as independents.

The government repealed the Italian racial laws. (1) A general election was scheduled for Sunday 29 September 1946.

(1) See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_racial_laws.
 

pipisme

The number of seats won by each party in the Italian Chamber of Deputies in the general election on 29 September 1946 was as follows:
Christian Democrat: 231
Socialist: 117
Communist: 98
National Democratic Union: 42
Republican: 32
Liberal: 27
Italian Social Movement: 15
Movement for the Independence of Sicily: 4
Other parties: 7
----------------
Total : 573
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The Italian Social Movement was the party of former Fascists.

Alcide de Gasperi became Prime Minister at the head of a coalition government of the Christian Democrat Party, National Democratic Union, and Liberal Party, with 300 seats in the Chamber of Deputies.

In this TL , King Victor Emmanuel III did not abdicate.
 

pipisme

The British economy was in reasonably good shape after the war with Italy. There was
no bombing of British towns and cities. So cities which were bombed in World War II in OTL , were not in this TL. Therefore Coventry cathedral remained intact and there was no postwar reconstruction of Coventry, Plymouth and other cities.

There was not any rationing, though imports from Italy were banned. The ban was lifted in February 1946. Within a few months the transition from a war time economy to a peace time economy had been made.
 
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pipisme

However in the summer of 1939, the Luftwaffe bombed British cities in the Anglo-German War. [1] However the destruction caused was considerably less than in OTL. Coventry Cathedral was not hit, and major postwar reconstruction of British cities, like after World War II in OTL, was not required.

See post #227 on page 12.
 

pipisme

1944 was a presidential election year in the United States. In January, President John Garner announced that he would not be seeking the nomination of the Democratic Party for President. He was 75 years old.

At the Democratic National Convention held in Chicago from 19 to 21 July 1944, Scott Wike Lucas, Senator from Illinoism was chosen as the party's candidate for President. (1) Alben Barkley, Senator from Kentucky and the Senate Majority Leader, was picked as candidate for Vice-President.

The Republican National Convention took place in Chicago from 26 to 28 June 1944. The delegates chose Thomas Dewey, Governor of New York, as their candidate for President, and John Bricker, Governor of Ohio, as candidate for Vice-President.

Election day was 7 November 1944. When all the states had been declared the electoral votes for each ticket was as follows:
Lucas/Barkley: 301
Dewey/Bricker: 230
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Total: 531
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(1) Here is the Wikipedia entry for Lucas: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Wike_Lucas.
 

pipisme

Lucas/Barkley won the following states: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky. Louisiana, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia. Washington, West Virginia. Total = 29.

The following states voted for Dewey/Bri cker: Colorado, Idaho. Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Missouri, Nebraska, New Jersey, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Vermont, Wisconsin, Wyoming. That is a total of 19 states.

The percentage votes were as follows:
Lucas/Barkley: 51.2
Dewey/Bricker: 48.1
Others: 0.7
----------------
Total: 100.0
---------------

Lucas's victory was unexpected. Most people thought Dewey would win.
 

pipisme

The composition of the House of Representatives and the Senate after the elections on 7 November 1944 was as follows [after 1942 elections]:
House of Representatives:
Democratic : 219 [225]
Republican : 212 [205]
Progressive : 2 [3]
American Labor: 1 [1]
Famer-Labor: 1 [1]
---------------------
Total: 435 [435]
---------------------
Senate:
Democratic : 59 [61]
Republican: 36 [34]
Progressive: 1 [1]
------------------
Total: 96 [96]
----------------
 

pipisme

The Speaker of the House of Reptesentatives was Sam Rayburn (Texas 4th- Democrat)
and the Minority Leader was Joseph Martin (Massachusetts 14th - Republican).

The Majority Leader in the Senate was Joseph Lister Hill (Alabama- Democrat). The Minority Leader was Wallace White (Maine- Republican).

Ellen Wilkinson, the Minister of Labour and National Service, and Labour MP for Middlesbrough East, died on 6 February 1947. In the subsequent government reshuffle, the Prime Minister promoted James Griffiths from Postmaster-General to Minister of Labour, and George Isaacs from Financial Secretary to the Treasury to Postmaster-General. Harold Wilson was apppinted Financial Secretary to the Treasury.
 

pipisme

The Middlesbrough East by-election was held on 7 May 1947. It was won for Labour, with a large majority, by Geoffrey Cooper. (1). Cooper had unsuccessfully contested the Liberal held seat of Middlesbrough West in the 1946 general election.

The Electoral Reform Act 1948 abolished the Single Transferable Vote (STV) in city constituencies, and replaced it with the Alternative Vote (AV), as a there was in all the other constituencies. 1n the 1946 general election 170 MPs were elected by STV. The total number of MPs were unchanged at 635. Except for the division of STV constituencies into single member constituencies, there were no boundary changes

Moving the second reading of the Electoral Reform Bill in November 1947, the Home Secretary. George Buchanan, said it would establish a uniform system of voting in all constituencies. He listed the advantages of AV compared with STV. It was simpler and easier to understand ; it meant that each MP was responsible for his or her constituemcy, instead of three to five MPs for each constituency; constituencies were substantially smaller in size and population.

Buchanan said that the 1909 Royal Commission on Electoral Syatems had unanimously advocated AV. In August 1917, during the committee stage of the Representation of People Bill, the House of Commons had voted by 127 votes to 126 in favour of AV. In March 1923 an Alternative Vote Bill proposed by the Liberal Party was defeated by 208 votes to 178, with Labour and Liberal MPs voting in favour and Conservatives against. (2)

Conservative, Liberal and Radical Liberal members opposed the bill. They condemned it as giving a partisan advantage to the Labour Party. It was in effect gerrymandering by the Labour Party. STV was a fairer system of voting. Because of the Labour majority, the bill received a second reading and passed through all its stages in the House of Commons. After going through the House of Lords, it received the royal assent and became law in March 1948.

(1) For Cooper see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geoffrey_Cooper_(politician).

(2) All this in relation to AV was as in OTL. See the book The Electoral System in Britain Since 1918 by D.E. Butler, Oxford University Press, 1963.
 

pipisme

Negotiations for reunion between the Liberal and Radical Liberal parties in 1948, ended successfully with agreement reached in September 1948. Hugh Seely conntinued to be the leader of the Liberal party, and William Wedgwood Benn, the leader of the Radical Liberal Party, became deputy leader of the Liberal Party.
 

pipisme

There was a government reshuffle in May 1948. Arthur Greenwood, the Lord PrIvy Seal and Leader of the House of Commons resigned. He was replaced by George Buchanan who was moved from Home Secretary. Other changes were Chuter Ede from Minister of Education to Home Secretary and Aneurin Bevan from Secretary of State for War to Minister of Education. Bevan's post at the War Office was taken by Geoffrey de Freitas who was promoted from Under-Secretary, and he was replaced by Denis Healey.

Charles Key resigned as Minister of Health. Edith Summerskill was promoted from Minister of Pensions, outside the cabinet, to Minister of Health in the cabinet. Hilary Marquand was promoted from Parliamentary Secretary Ministry of Labour to Minister of Pensions. He was replaced by Barbara Castle. Douglas Jay joined the government as Secretary Overseas Trade Department in place of Ben Smith who resigned.
 

pipisme

A general election was held in Ireland on Wednesday 19 September 1943. The number of seats in the Dail won by each party and independents were as follows (May 1939 general election):
Fianna Fail: 52 (51)
Labour: 45 (56)
Fine Gael: 41 (49)
Clann na Talmhan: 18 (n/a)
Independents: 5 (5)
-‐--------------------
Total: 161 (161)
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Clann na Talmhan, or Family/Children of the Land, had been formed in 1939. (1) Its leader was Michael Donellan. An important feature of the election result was their good performance. They did well in the west of Ireland. They gained seats at the expense of the other three parties, while Fianna Fail gained from Fine Gael and Labour.

After the election, the Labour/Fine Gael coalition continued in power, with William Norton (Labour) as Taioseach and William Cosgrave (FG) as Tanaiste.

(1) For Clann na Talmhan see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clann_na_Talmhan.
 
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