Stanley Baldwin's Successful Political Gamble: A TL from 1923

pipisme

In Ireland, Sean MacBride founded Clann na Poblachta (Family/Children of the Republic) in July 1946. (1) It attracted support from Fianna Fail and the left wing of the Labour Party, dissatisfied with the coalition with Fine Gael.

A general election was held in Ireland on Wednesday 2 June 1948. The number of TDs elected for each party and independents were as follows (1943 general election):
Fianna Fail: 59 (51)
Labour: 35 (56)
Fine Gael: 31 (49)
Clann na Poblachta: 23 (n/a)
Clann na Talmhan: 14 (18)
Independents: 8 (5)
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Total: 170 (170)
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(1) For Clann na Poblachta see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clann_na_Poblachta.
 

pipisme

Theoretically there were four combinations of parties which would have a majority of seats in the Dail, that is 86 out of the 170 seats. These were Fianna Fail/Fine Gael, Fianna Fail/Labour, Fianna Fail/Clann na Poblachta/Clann na Talmhan, Labour/Fine Gael/Clann na Poblachta. The first combination was not politically possible. So that left one of the other three combinations. But Fianna Fail had traditionally refused to go into coalition with another party. Instead from 1930 to 1939 they were a minority government with confidence and supply from Labour. But that party wanted to be the lead party in a coalition.

When the Dail met on 20 June 1948, Eamon de Valera and William Norton were both nominated as Taiseaoch. The nomination of De Valera was defeated, and that of Norton was passed. So he continued in office as Taiseaoch at the head of a Labour/Fine Gael/Clann na Poblachta government, with William Cosgrave as Tanaiste and Sean MacBride as Minister of External Affairs. The coalition had 89 out 170 seats in the Dail, a majority of 8.

In September 1948, Eire (the official name of Ireland) left the British Commonwealth and became a republic. Its official name was now the Irish Republic.
 

pipisme

There were five Labour ministers, five Fine Gael ministers and three Clann na Poblachta ministers in the cabinet. Labour had the following portfolios: Taioseach, Finance, Justice, Local Government, Social Welfare. These portfolios were held by Fine Gael: Tanaiste who was also Minister of Defence, Education, Industry and Commerce, Lands, Posts and Telegraphs. Clann na Poblachta had the portfolios of Agriculture, External Affairs, Health.
 

pipisme

In this TL Evan Durbin did not drown on 3 September 1948 while rescuing his daughter and another child in dangerous surf at Crockington Haven, near Bude, Cornwall. He and his family went on holiday to Cornwall, but a few days later than in OTL. His daughter and the other child went swimming at Cockington Haven, but they were not caught up in dangerous surf. He was President of the Board of Trade in 1948.

1948 was a presidential election year in the United States. The Republican National Convention in Philadelphia in June, chose Thomas Dewey, Governor of New York, as candidate for president, and Earl Warren, Governor of California, as vice presidential candidate.

The Democratic National Convention convened in Philadelphia on 12 July. The issue of civil rights was the subject of contest between liberals and Southern conservatives. A plank in the party platform which supported the status quo of states rights was rejected by delegates. A strong civil rights plank was then passed. This led to about three dozen Southern delegates, led by Strom Thurmond, Governor of South Carolina, walking out of the convention. The Southern delegates who stayed nominated Richard Russell Jr. Senator from Georgia as the Democratic candidate for president. However a large majority voted for President Scott Lucas as their party's nominee for president. Vice president Alben Barkley was nominated by acclamation as candidate for vice president. (1)

Voting day was 2 November. The electoral votes won by each ticket were as follows:
Thomas Dewey/Earl Warren (Republican): 316
Scott Lucas/Alben Barkley (Democrat): 176
Strom Thurmond/Fielding Wright (States' Rights Democrat or Dixiecrat): 39
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Total: 531
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So Thomas Dewey and Earl Warren were elected president and vice president of the United States of America, after 16 years of Democrat rule.

The following states were won by Dewey/Warren: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware. Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Vermont, Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming. Total: 26.

These states voted for Lucas/Barkley: Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Tennessee (except one faithless elector), Texas, Utah, Washington, West Virginia. Total: 18.

The following four states voted for Thurmond/Wright:
Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, and one faithless elector from Tennessee.

The percentage votes were as follows:
Dewey/Warren: 49.9
Lucas/ Barkley: 47,1
Thurmond/Wright: 2.4
Others: 0.6
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Total: 100.0
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(1) This was like in OTL except that Lucas was President instead of Truman. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1948_United_States_presidential_election, section headed Democratic Convention.
 
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pipisme

The number of seats held by each party in the House of Representatives and Senate after the elections on 2 November 1948 were as follows (after November 1946 elections):
House of Representatives:
Democratic: 243 (262)
Republican: 191 (172)
American Labour: 1 (1)
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Total: 435 (435)
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Senate:
Democratic: 58 (60)
Republican: 38 (36)
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Total: 96 (96)
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Sam Rayburn (Texas 4th - Dem) continued in office as Speaker of the House of Representatives, and Joseph Martin (Massachusetts 14th - Rep) as Minority Leader. In the Senate, Joseph Lister Hill (Alabama - Democrat) stayed as Majority Leader. Ken Wherry (Nebraska - Republican) became Minority Leader on 3 January 1949 in succession to Wallace White (Maine - Republican) who had retired.
 
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pipisme

Earl Baldwin of Bewdley (Stanley Baldwin) died on 14 December 1947. He was 80 years old. He took a gamble in calling a general election for December 1923 on the issue of protection. The Conservatives had a majority of around seventy in the House of Commons, enough for a five year term. Several cabinet ministers opposed his decision a general election.

Historians have speculated on what might have happened if the Tories had not won a majority in the 1923 general election. If Labour and Liberals combined had a majority of seats, and Labour were the largest of the two parties, then presumably there would have been a Labour government with Ramsay MacDonald as Prime Minister. But such a government would have been dependent on Liberal votes, and would have been anyone's guess as to how long it would have lasted.

I have decided to end this timeline.

The End
 

clem attlee

Thank you for your interesting time-line. Could you post a summary list of the alternate prime ministers and their terms of office?
 

pipisme

clem attlee said:
Thank you for your interesting time-line. Could you post a summary list of the alternate prime ministers and their terms of office?
Click to expand...
Here is a list of the alternate prime ministers and their parties and terms of office:
Stanley Baldwin (Conservative): 22 May 1923 to 27 October 1925
Ramsay MacDonald (Labour) 28 October 1925 to 16 May 1927
John Clynes (Labour) 16 May 1927 to 9 June 1927. He was interim prime minister until the Labour Party elected a new leader.
Arthur Henderson (Labour) 9 June 1927 to 19 May 1930.
To be continued.
 
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pipisme

List of alternative prime ministers continued:
Stanley Baldwin (Conservative) 20 May 1930 to 22 June 1934
Thomas Johnston (Labour) 23 June 1934 to 27 June 1939
Thomas Johnston (Labour/Conservative/Liberal coalition) 27 June 1939 to 25 September 1939
Thomas Johnston (Labour) 25 September 1939 to 31 May 1944
Anthony Eden (Conservative/Liberal coalition) 31 May 1944 to 22 June 1945
Thomas Johnston (Labour/Conservative/Liberal/Radical Liberal coalition) 22 June 1945 to 28 January 1946
Thomas Johnston (Labour) 28 January 1946 onwards.
 

pipisme

MatthewFirth said:
Was there supposed to be more before you decided to end this? If so, why are you ending this?
Click to expand...
There was not supposed to be more in this timeline before I decided to end it. I have ended it because I found this timeline too much with three other timelines and a story in the Alternate History Writer's Forum.
 
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