So I been thinking some about the PLC and the succession crisis/war from 1733-35. If for whatever reason Russia and Austria were constrained from acting overtly to support Frederick (Augustus III). Stanislaw probably stands his best chance of actually winning and maintaining his throne. Presumably Prussia will give at least covert aid in the form of money and war materials to Stanislaw to thwart the Wettins. Frederick may receive the same from Vienna, but that is likely to alienate Prussia and Stanislaw so they have to act carefully. Its better if they let this play out as a purely Polish affair with only the smaller German states as supporting players.
In the case of Russia...let's assume that Catherine, not Anna is chosen as Tsarina in 1730. While the Russian privy council chose Anna for specific reasons they could just as easily have gone with the more senior daughter, who already has an heir to continue the ruling house. Given that their reasons for choosing Anna proved moot in any case as she set about tearing up the conditions of her ascension and disbanding her privy council, its not likely there would have been any significant difference between Catherine or Anna's reign during the initial 3 years. 1733 Catherine dies and the 15yr old Anna Leopoldnova will become new Tsarina, but only after defeating a coup by Elizabeth. A conflict that will effectively make Russia a non-player in the Polish events. Anna eventually wins out in Russia but only after restoring the privileges of the privy council, transitioning Russia from Autocratic to limited Constitutional monarchy in the British vein.
For Austria, lets assume that the 1725 treaty has held and they are allied with Spain. MT is scheduled to marry Carlos III, currently Duke of Parma and heir to Tuscany. Spain will aid Carlos in defending his Italian possessions and will support him if he chooses to defend Milan for the Emperor but will otherwise not support Austria in anything but a defensive war where Poland is concerned. Hence Austria, unlike OTL will increase its defenses along the Rhine to dissuade France from acting to support Stanislaw with overt military assistance and leave it to Saxony and Russia to give Frederick his crown. Russian military forces will of course subsequently leave to attend to their own affairs. Munnich's forces will align with Anna and de Lacy's with Elizabeth, insuring that the Russian affair doesn't peter out immediately.
Now, how does this bode for events to come. The Ottoman war is probably delayed or outright avoided for a time leaving Austria that much stronger when MT and Charles ascend the throne...which may or may not be in 1740.
The PLC and Sweden likely form some kind of defensive accord vs Russia both will lean towards Prussia and France. but the PLC is likely to be decidedly neutralist in affairs outside its borders except where Russia is concerned.
In the case of Russia...let's assume that Catherine, not Anna is chosen as Tsarina in 1730. While the Russian privy council chose Anna for specific reasons they could just as easily have gone with the more senior daughter, who already has an heir to continue the ruling house. Given that their reasons for choosing Anna proved moot in any case as she set about tearing up the conditions of her ascension and disbanding her privy council, its not likely there would have been any significant difference between Catherine or Anna's reign during the initial 3 years. 1733 Catherine dies and the 15yr old Anna Leopoldnova will become new Tsarina, but only after defeating a coup by Elizabeth. A conflict that will effectively make Russia a non-player in the Polish events. Anna eventually wins out in Russia but only after restoring the privileges of the privy council, transitioning Russia from Autocratic to limited Constitutional monarchy in the British vein.
For Austria, lets assume that the 1725 treaty has held and they are allied with Spain. MT is scheduled to marry Carlos III, currently Duke of Parma and heir to Tuscany. Spain will aid Carlos in defending his Italian possessions and will support him if he chooses to defend Milan for the Emperor but will otherwise not support Austria in anything but a defensive war where Poland is concerned. Hence Austria, unlike OTL will increase its defenses along the Rhine to dissuade France from acting to support Stanislaw with overt military assistance and leave it to Saxony and Russia to give Frederick his crown. Russian military forces will of course subsequently leave to attend to their own affairs. Munnich's forces will align with Anna and de Lacy's with Elizabeth, insuring that the Russian affair doesn't peter out immediately.
Now, how does this bode for events to come. The Ottoman war is probably delayed or outright avoided for a time leaving Austria that much stronger when MT and Charles ascend the throne...which may or may not be in 1740.
The PLC and Sweden likely form some kind of defensive accord vs Russia both will lean towards Prussia and France. but the PLC is likely to be decidedly neutralist in affairs outside its borders except where Russia is concerned.