Stanislaw vs Frederick II 1733 on their own

So I been thinking some about the PLC and the succession crisis/war from 1733-35. If for whatever reason Russia and Austria were constrained from acting overtly to support Frederick (Augustus III). Stanislaw probably stands his best chance of actually winning and maintaining his throne. Presumably Prussia will give at least covert aid in the form of money and war materials to Stanislaw to thwart the Wettins. Frederick may receive the same from Vienna, but that is likely to alienate Prussia and Stanislaw so they have to act carefully. Its better if they let this play out as a purely Polish affair with only the smaller German states as supporting players.

In the case of Russia...let's assume that Catherine, not Anna is chosen as Tsarina in 1730. While the Russian privy council chose Anna for specific reasons they could just as easily have gone with the more senior daughter, who already has an heir to continue the ruling house. Given that their reasons for choosing Anna proved moot in any case as she set about tearing up the conditions of her ascension and disbanding her privy council, its not likely there would have been any significant difference between Catherine or Anna's reign during the initial 3 years. 1733 Catherine dies and the 15yr old Anna Leopoldnova will become new Tsarina, but only after defeating a coup by Elizabeth. A conflict that will effectively make Russia a non-player in the Polish events. Anna eventually wins out in Russia but only after restoring the privileges of the privy council, transitioning Russia from Autocratic to limited Constitutional monarchy in the British vein.

For Austria, lets assume that the 1725 treaty has held and they are allied with Spain. MT is scheduled to marry Carlos III, currently Duke of Parma and heir to Tuscany. Spain will aid Carlos in defending his Italian possessions and will support him if he chooses to defend Milan for the Emperor but will otherwise not support Austria in anything but a defensive war where Poland is concerned. Hence Austria, unlike OTL will increase its defenses along the Rhine to dissuade France from acting to support Stanislaw with overt military assistance and leave it to Saxony and Russia to give Frederick his crown. Russian military forces will of course subsequently leave to attend to their own affairs. Munnich's forces will align with Anna and de Lacy's with Elizabeth, insuring that the Russian affair doesn't peter out immediately.

Now, how does this bode for events to come. The Ottoman war is probably delayed or outright avoided for a time leaving Austria that much stronger when MT and Charles ascend the throne...which may or may not be in 1740.

The PLC and Sweden likely form some kind of defensive accord vs Russia both will lean towards Prussia and France. but the PLC is likely to be decidedly neutralist in affairs outside its borders except where Russia is concerned.
 
This is a really interesting scenario. But before I really dive into discussing it I have question regarding the Spanish and Austrian alliance. Does Spain still attack and fail to take Gibraltar, but the reason that the Austrian alliance holds is because Austria backs up Spain? Or has Gibraltar been taken?
 
No.... Spain has attacked and Austrian aid that did not materialize OTL, proves pivotal in keeping initial attempts by the British to reinforce the garrison from coming to fruition. That garrison remains at only 1500 for the first winter and the siege is successful in the early Spring before the British can return. Minorca and Gibraltar are regained by Spain in 1728. Hence why the Spanish/Austrian Alliance endures into the 1730's. At which time France has recovered sufficiently from the debacle of the South Sea Bubble that it can consider interfering on the continent to further its agenda. Nominally at this time they would still be allied with the British/Dutch and Scandinavians... (Treaty of Hannover) Which could fit with A Stanislaw led PLC in the aftermath....a potential French/Prussian/Scandinavian/ PLC alliance or at least "understanding " could result in the aftermath if Stanislaw prevails.

The PLC and Russia under Anna Leopoldovna would likely be somewhat inward looking. Maria Anna (Austria) could bring crowns of Naples and Sicily as Dowry for Philip (Spanish infante)and Carlos (also Spanish)of course could stand for election as HRE Emperor once married to MT, depends on whether Karl IV dies on schedule. That was after all, the entire purpose of the Austro-Spanish alliance in 1725.
 
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