Stanislaw Poniatowski Abdicates

In 1772 shortly after the Partiton of Poland, King Stanislaw Poniatowski considered abdicating but decided against it. If he was to abdicate, who would become King and what would the future of Poland look like? Would reform still happen or should it go down as it did in OTL?
 
Catherine had plans to replace Poniatowski with Potiomkin when Poniatowski proved to not be predictable and loyal enough.
 
Catherine had plans to replace Poniatowski with Potiomkin when Poniatowski proved to not be predictable and loyal enough.
Really, when was this? I have never heard this before. Would he win the election? Id imagine a lot of people would be pissed at Russia at the partiton and pick another member of the Szlachta.
 
It doesn't matter whom people want but whom Catherine wants. And she would want someone loyal to her. Potiomkin could suddenly discover, that he is of Polish ancestry, then convert to Catholicism and be 'elected'.
 
It doesn't matter whom people want but whom Catherine wants. And she would want someone loyal to her. Potiomkin could suddenly discover, that he is of Polish ancestry, then convert to Catholicism and be 'elected'.
I understand but I would think there would be a significant number of Szlachta who would field a candidate against Catherine, maybe even supported by austria to check Catherine’s power.
 
I understand but I would think there would be a significant number of Szlachta who would field a candidate against Catherine, maybe even supported by austria to check Catherine’s power.
They'll be crushed. Austria and Prussia agreed for one Catherine's lover on PLC throne, second one would not make much difference.
 
If that’s the case then what would be different about Polish history. Would Potemkin marry?
Potemkin would not attempt to make alliance with Prussia against Russia, like SAP did, and he'll not make something like 3rd May Constitution. He'll be king from Catherine's expectations, her loyal follower.
 
Perhaps.
Catherine surely would not expect him to start his own dynasty.

Although I still wonder if 1772 is too early for Potemkin on the throne, he achieved his position in 1774. @alexmilman would know the answer-what do you think about possibility of King Potemkin?

You are clearly overestimating my knowledge: I never heard about the schema. ;)

Of course, it would not be a big deal to find Potemkin's Polish roots: his family was from Smolensk and by that time the local nobility still was considering itself "szhliahta". Not sure that this would be even necessary to become a candidate: country was ruled for a while by the Saxon dynasty (not to mention Vasas).

OTOH, Potemkin was a very useful and capable (if wasteful) statesman so why would Catherine decide to get rid of him? In 1774 he just started the huge project of developing "Novorossia" and, as far as I can tell, there was no alternative candidate. Surely, there were plenty of the PLC magnates ready to obey her orders while, even with the discovered Polish ancestry, Potemkin would remain a relative nobody as far as the pedigree was involved and his "assignment" to the throne would be a clear slap on the collective face of the Polish nobility.

But, strictly based on his personal style, he could become a popular figure: he was generous, charming (when he wanted), very good in staging the big celebrations, etc. Of course, there were moody periods as well and he could be very harsh and openly jealous and vengeful.
 
You are clearly overestimating my knowledge: I never heard about the schema. ;)

Of course, it would not be a big deal to find Potemkin's Polish roots: his family was from Smolensk and by that time the local nobility still was considering itself "szhliahta". Not sure that this would be even necessary to become a candidate: country was ruled for a while by the Saxon dynasty (not to mention Vasas).

OTOH, Potemkin was a very useful and capable (if wasteful) statesman so why would Catherine decide to get rid of him? In 1774 he just started the huge project of developing "Novorossia" and, as far as I can tell, there was no alternative candidate. Surely, there were plenty of the PLC magnates ready to obey her orders while, even with the discovered Polish ancestry, Potemkin would remain a relative nobody as far as the pedigree was involved and his "assignment" to the throne would be a clear slap on the collective face of the Polish nobility.

But, strictly based on his personal style, he could become a popular figure: he was generous, charming (when he wanted), very good in staging the big celebrations, etc. Of course, there were moody periods as well and he could be very harsh and openly jealous and vengeful.
Potemkin himself was interested in getting Polish crown late in his life (he had large estates in Podolya). So if he by chance had ambitions to became king, would Catherine refuse him?
 
Potemkin himself was interested in getting Polish crown late in his life (he had large estates in Podolya). So if he by chance had ambitions to became king, would Catherine refuse him?

Honestly, I can't tell one way or another: their relations had been quite complicated and well beyond the lover level so it is rather difficult to say how far would she go to please him if this was not directly in her interests. Well, we do know that she put him in charge of the main army during her 2nd Ottoman war mostly because he wanted to have order of St. George 1st class and this was the only way for him to get it. Of course, it can be argued that he got a reasonably good reputation as a subordinate commander during her 1st Ottoman war and that his military reform was a definite improvement of the existing situation while his ineptitude as a supreme commander was anybody's guess.
 
If this is the case than would Poland disentigrate as it did in OTL and eventually fall to partitions?
 
There are plenty of ‘Piast’ scoundrels from whom to pick a King in 1772, if not Potemkin. Perhaps Franciszek Branicki—former deputy to Russia, and Crown Hetman. He’d fought the Bar Confederation, and went on to found the Targowica Confederation IOTL.
 
Also this is kind of indirect from the question but what if that one Portuguese prince became King in 1733? What would change?
 
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