Stanfield defeats Trudeau

MrHola

Banned
I know very little about the election except that it was close (Trudeau had to form a minority government). What would be a good POD for Stanfield winning and what would a Stanfield government be like? How would Canada without Trudeau look like?
 
I know very little about the election except that it was close (Trudeau had to form a minority government). What would be a good POD for Stanfield winning and what would a Stanfield government be like? How would Canada without Trudeau look like?

The POD? I'm not sure... Perhaps there is a big government corruption scandal, or for a more subtle one, the photos of Stanfield dropping the football don't run, and instead, there are photos of him catching passes, and overall he look more youthful and more competent.

With Trudeau gone early, Canada would be (for better or worse) a more Conservative nation. Unless the Tories show the same fiscal incompetence as Trudeau's Liberals, Canada will not have gone through the cuts to social programs that happened in the 1990s. Canada would have maintained it's armed forces to the level they were at in the early to mid 1970s, and new equipment would have been purchased quickly, instead of waiting until Joe Clark's government in 1979. It is likely that Capital Punishment (the death penalty) would not have been abolished in 1976. (That vote was very close, and even with Trudeau's bunch could have gone the other way) There would not have been the divisive 1982 constitution, nor would there have been a "National Energy Program" to anger and alienate the West.

It is likely that the Liberal party would have become the party of the right, with the Progressive Conservatives on the Center-Left. The ATL versions of the Bloc Quebecois and the Reform/Canadian Alliance would have been formed out of a split in the Liberal Party, if that mess even happens here.

Here is an idea for the ATL governemnts and PMs.

1972-1978 Tory (Robert Stanfield)
1978 Liberal (John Turner)
1978-1983 Tory (Robert Stanfield)
1983 Tory (Joe Clark)
1983-1991 Liberal (John Turner)
1991-1992 Liberal (Paul Martin, Jr.)
1992-2004 Tory (Martin Brian Mulroney)
2004- Reform (Stephen Harper) (TTL Reform is a fusion of the Liberal Party with the Canadian Alliance and right-wing elements of the PCs. The name is not far-fetched as the Liberals, pre-1867 were called the Reform party.)

Political Parties TTL
Liberal (pre-2001) Reform (post 2001)
Progressive Conservative
Action Quebecois (TTL's Bloc Quebecois)
New Democratic Party (similar to OTL, but with traditional "family values" as a party platform)

Party Leaders TTL (1972-2008), *indicates that the person was PM at some point in his career.
Liberal/Reform
Pierre Eliot Trudeau (1968-1974)*
John Turner (1974-1992)*
Paul Martin, Jr. (1992-1993)*
Jean Chretien (1993-1999)
Allan Rock (1999-2001)
Stephen Joseph Harper (2001-)*
Progressive Conservative
Robert Stanfield (1968-1983)*
Joe Clark (1983-1989)*
Martin Brian Mulroney (1989-2005)*
Peter McKay (2005-)
Action Quebecois
Lucien Bouchard (1990-1997)
Gilles Duceppe (1997-)
New Democratic Party
David Lewis (1971-1978)
Edward Broadbent (1978-1993)
Svend Robinson (1993-2000)
Olivia Chow (2000-)
 
I did a quick take scenario on this a while back.

Problem is Canadian politics falls (in interest level) underneath both American and British politics on the board, so there's not a lot of takers.


I agree with RCAF Brat that there's a solid chance the Liberals drift off into corporate/neoliberalism (think Mike Harris or so, albeit while still being more in favour of individual rights than the Progressive Conservatives) while the PC Party dominates the centre—I do think under a scenario like this the NDP does quite a bit better.

Frankly Canada would be a lot better off without Trudeau (obviously just my opinion, but finances under Stanfield alone would dictate a Canada in really good shape for the '70s) and the 1980 Constitution and NEP would be avoided, thank god.

However Quebec might be more likely to leave Canada (or, at least, a closer vote sometime in the early '80s) and I doubt a Stanfield government would follow Joe Clark's Community of communities idea. The West would be somewhat happier under Stanfield of course, but Alberta at least might drift to neoliberal Liberals (which is funny as hell) by the '90s or so.


Stanfield in government ensures Red Toryism survives as an ideology, while the corporate/US conservative crowd drifts off to the Liberals. However the Liberals are almost certainly out of power for 5-10 years and perhaps more… I think the PC Party will remain in power—probably a mix of minorities and majorities a la Bill Davis in Ontario—for the next decade at least.

Liberal/Reform
Pierre Eliot Trudeau (1968-1974)*
John Turner (1974-1992)*
Paul Martin, Jr. (1992-1993)*
Jean Chretien (1993-1999)
Allan Rock (1999-2001)
Stephen Joseph Harper (2001-)*

I agree on Turner, not sure about after that (and doubt Chretien strongly).

Progressive Conservative
Robert Stanfield (1968-1983)*
Joe Clark (1983-1989)*
Martin Brian Mulroney (1989-2005)*
Peter McKay (2005-)

I would prefer someone other than Clark (fine guy, horrible politician)—I like Crombie, just so that someone who was Mayor of Canada's largest city can help transition the country into a structure that acknowledges the contribution made by the urban parts (Canada is way behind the US on that front, for instance, let alone Europe).

Mulroney is more corporate/Blue Tory, in the ATL it's quite possible he either drifts to the Liberals or—interestingly—winds up Premier of Quebec.

Peter McKay… no idea. Possible, of course, but it follows along with OTL a little too much for me.
 
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I did a quick take scenario on this a while back.

Problem is Canadian politics falls (in interest level) underneath both American and British politics on the board, so there's not a lot of takers.


I agree with RCAF Brat that there's a solid chance the Liberals drift off into corporate/neoliberalism (think Mike Harris or so, albeit while still being more in favour of individual rights than the Progressive Conservatives) while the PC Party dominates the centre—I do think under a scenario like this the NDP does quite a bit better.

Frankly Canada would be a lot better off without Trudeau (obviously just my opinion, but finances under Stanfield alone would dictate a Canada in really good shape for the '70s) and the 1980 Constitution and NEP would be avoided, thank god.

However Quebec might be more likely to leave Canada (or, at least, a closer vote sometime in the early '80s) and I doubt a Stanfield government would follow Joe Clark's Community of communities idea. The West would be somewhat happier under Stanfield of course, but Alberta at least might drift to neoliberal Liberals (which is funny as hell) by the '90s or so.


Stanfield in government ensures Red Toryism survives as an ideology, while the corporate/US conservative crowd drifts off to the Liberals. However the Liberals are almost certainly out of power for 5-10 years and perhaps more… I think the PC Party will remain in power—probably a mix of minorities and majorities a la Bill Davis in Ontario—for the next decade at least.



I agree on Turner, not sure about after that (and doubt Chretien strongly).



I would prefer someone other than Clark (fine guy, horrible politician)—I like Crombie, just so that someone who was Mayor of Canada's largest city can help transition the country into a structure that acknowledges the contribution made by the urban parts (Canada is way behind the US on that front, for instance, let alone Europe).

Mulroney is more corporate/Blue Tory, in the ATL it's quite possible he either drifts to the Liberals or—interestingly—winds up Premier of Quebec.

Peter McKay… no idea. Possible, of course, but it follows along with OTL a little too much for me.

I had Chretien sort of be one of the more competent MPs left over after the 1980's Liberal rule comes to an inevitable end (for how bad it goes for them think somewhere between OTL John Turner and OTL Kim Campbell)

Rock got to be another ineffectual leader who came and went during the Liberal years in the wilderness. In my post, I forgot that Preston Manning (or one of the other OTL Reform MPs) founded a western oriented, right-wing populist party, that had success similar to that of the OTL Reform movement.

Harper as a *Liberal leader is not such a stretch with the POD being during his childhood, though there are plenty of other possibilities, such as Mike Harris, for example.

You are right about Mr. Mulroney, which is why he is so successful, His terms take place where Chretien's were IOTL, and he can keep power without the corruption of the likes of Chretien & co.

As for a leader from urban Canada, someone from Toronto (btw, Montreal was Canada's largest city until 1997, when a whole bunch of Toronto's suburbs became part of Toronto) will not do all that well. (Toronto has always been resented by people who don't live there) possible alternatives include Lawrence Decore, a former mayor of Edmonton (and leader of the Alberta Liberals, the most successful one in the last 80 years) or Ralph Klein, former mayor of Calgary, former premier of Alberta, and way back in the 70s and 80s, a Liberal!

The PQ might go for Rene Lesveque's "Beau Risque" somewhat sooner, and come to some sort of compromise with Ottawa, in which Ottawa stays the fuck out of provincial jurisdictions, which is mostly what Quebec has always wanted. This is why support for independence is currently imploding in OTL Quebec. (The 1960s, when support for Quebec indepedence really began to take off, is, coincidentally, the time when the federal government really began to interfere with provincial affairs, ie. Medicare and official bilingualism.)

The NDP would be likely to do better, as they could hardly have done much worse.
 
As for a leader from urban Canada, someone from Toronto (btw, Montreal was Canada's largest city until 1997, when a whole bunch of Toronto's suburbs became part of Toronto) will not do all that well. (Toronto has always been resented by people who don't live there)

I grew up in Kensington Market/Trinity-Bellwoods/Parkdale Toronto—I know full well that people resent the awesomeness of the city :). (I've lived in a 1000 person small town near Orillia, Ontario; St. Henri/NDG/Plateau Montreal; downtown Fort McMurray; and 17th Ave. SW Calgary since, incidentally: defending Toronto is the most fun in Montreal, and the most boring in Calgary.)

As for size, Toronto passed Montreal in 1976, if we're talking Census CMA areas (which are a better measure of size than the formal area controlled by a city).

Anyway, David Crombie did contest the Tory leadership IOTL and who could find problem with a tiny midget of a man (even one who was Mayor of Toronto)?
 
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