Stalin's War of 1938

The Ukraine was in crisis a huge chunk of the contry was now under the control of the Red Army. The River line had been restored thanks to a massive effort by the Italians and Romanians, But the Ukrainian army was tired from the prolonged fight. Out of 18+ divisions which it had started the war with non was at full strength. The 6 elite divisions of the 1st army had started the war with over 25,000 men in each of its 6 division and now the 6 divisions with replacements totaled barely 51,000. Barely a handful of Vickers tanks remained along with some Polish and captured soviet tanks.

The Poles held the final defensive line in Belorussia. The Poles TP7 tanks had performed quite well against the soviet tanks and the Bofors 37mm ATG had also cone quite well.

The Polish Eagles had managed to do a magnificent Job against the Red Air Force. No Soviet Bomber had stuck a Polish city.

The Peace Conference was held in Switzerland. The British Prime Minster had called it. Presemt were the Soviet Deligation led by the Soviet Foreign Minister. The Ukraine was represented by its Prime Minster,Poland sent its Foreign Minister plus some military advisors, Itaky 's Foreign Minister was also present as were deligations from Romania and Hungary. The Belorussian deligation was tiny but then there was hardly anything left of the country. France's Premier arrived and then arrived a German observor . The meeting started and the arguements began almost immediatly .
 
The peace agreement talks were full of arguments as the Ukranians argued that the Soviets should be forced to withdraw. The Italians argued that the Soviiets had attacked a peaceful nation and demanded sanctions.

Thge Soviet Foreign Minister Informed the British Prime Minister that if a deal was not reached that the Red Army would resume hostilities. (It seemed that the Red Army had used the pause to rearm and reorganize its forces.The reincorporation of the Ukranie into the USSR was still his goal).
 
The Conference ended with an agreement to end the hostilities. The Ukrainian govt was disgusted by the failure of the western powers to stand up to the Soviets. Unfortunately, the Ukrainian military was worn out by the combat and needed time to rest and regroup.

Mussolini had shown that Italy was willing to stand by the Ulranians against the Soviet threat but it appeared that the Italian Expeditionary Force was about to be scaled back. The Romanians also withdrew any military force that was in the Ukranie.

The biggest gainer was the USSR . Stalin had recovered a serious amount of territory which had not been part of Russia since 1922. Soviet agents were attempting to inflitrate into the free part of the Ukranie to create problems for the government of the Kingdom of the Ukrainie and to stir up trouble in the Liuthanian sections of the Kingdom of Poland.

A grpoup of German Military officers arrived in the Ukranie shortly after the end of hostilities led by Hans Guderian. They were interested in interviewing Ukranian military commanders and looking at captured Soviet Military equipment. As a result of this mission the Germans briefed a certain group of Ukranian Military leaders regarding the current Soviet military deployments in the Eastern Ukranie.

German intelligence deceided to tip of the British regarding a soviet agent operating in Great Britain with the initials CG.
 
An so ended Stalin's War of 1938. While not a complete sucess it had restore the eastern part of the Ukraine to Soviet Control and Had all but eliminated the country of Belorussia. However, the Poles were now seeing the Soviets rather than Germany as their greatest threat and it appreared that there could be a thawing of German-Polish Relations.

In the Ukraine several captured soviet tanks were put on trains for Germany. The Germans were very interested in examing the Soviet Panzers.
Already Germany had order a halt to production of the PZkpfI and improvements to the PZKPF III.

Poland had ordered more of the French Somma tanks and a step up in production of the TP7.
 
The Poles TP7 tanks had performed quite well against the soviet tanks
Well, it depends. 1st, Polish tank's name was 7TP (for 7-ton Polish) and not TP7. 2nd, a lot would depend on what route Soviet tank development went ITTL. T-26 (essentially same tank as 7TP, they both were bastards of Vickers 6 tons, but slightly upgunned from 37-mm to 45-mm) was reverse-engineered from Vickers in Leningrad, so Red Army is likely to possess those. They're in same league as 7TPs. However, T-28 (developed in Leningrad) would rip any Polish tank formation a new one. And now things are starting to get interesting. IOTL BTs were largely developed in Kharkov (Ukraine) from Christie's platform. Not having Kharkov could either lead to early development of "Tankograds" in Chelyabinsk and Sverdlovsk or could butterfly BTs away (unlikely, as BT-2 was a little more than Christie hull with Liberty engine and T-18 or T-26 turret, and it went on from there). All in all, it is highly unlikely that Polish armour would claim tons of success against Soviet one ITTL.
 
If there is to be a second war the Poles will have to develope a much better tank. There is no way that the TP7 could stand against the much heavier Soviet T-28. The Poles would have to gain either a new foreign tank or massively improve the TP7. While I believe the Poles were working on a much improved verison of the TP7 in 1939 in OTL I wonder if it would be ready.

I suppose that a stop gap measure would be to develope an anti-tank round for the 75mm field gun as the bofors 37mm gun would not stop the T-28,KV-1/KV-2 or the highly sucessful T-34.

It would seem to me that the Poles would also heavily fortify their new Eastern border as I believe that so much of the Belorussian state would be lost as to make it impossible to survive. Thus the Poles would expand any fortifications from Czarist days adding Pillboxes, minefields, bunkers etc.
It would also seem that the earlier TP tanks with twin MGs might be converted to SP gun platforms possibly mounting the French designed 75mm gun.
 
It would appear that in 1937 the Polish armament industry had developed a replacement for the 7TP called the 14TP. This tank would have had much heavier armour and mounted a 47mm gun. The 25TP was the largest tank designed worked on in pre-WWII Poland it would have been on the order of the Soviet T-28 tank and mounted a 75mm gun.

I would expect that as a result of this war that the Poles would immediately move from the 7TP to the 14TP design and perhaps okay the production of some of the 25TP designs. It would seem that as a stop gap measure the Polish Military would have to look at mounting heavier guns on tank bodies formerly used as twin turred MG armed tanks.

Without additional aid I would think that the Kingdom of the Ukranie would fall if the soviets launched another massive offensive. I may have captured some T-26 and BT-7 tanks but it would need more powerful tanks and at guns. It is probable that it would have produced a Ukranian verision of the German 37mm ATG which in Soviet hands was the 45mmATG. It is possible that they might have purchases the Romanian 47mm gun or the Austrian 47mm gun(which was used also by Italy and the Netherlands). The Ukranie would have to look to France, Czechoslovkia or Germany for tanks as I believe that Poland would be using all production for its own military.
 
Thus it would seem that the period after the war of 1938 would be a race to build up for the next round of fighting. The Polish government now faces an even larger threat from the east and possible soviet attempts to cause internal trouble.

The Ukranie must rebuild its military and that will require the expenditure of foreign monetary reserves. Fortunately, the Italians left behind some of their military equipment including guns and aircraft.
 
And So ends this subject. The war ended with the USSR achieving a major realignment of the situation. The Polish-designed alliance system fell apart with the collapse of the Belorussian State and the loss of a substantial part of the Ukraine.

It proved that the Western powers were unwilling to do the heavy lifting required to check the USSR. Germany has come out of the war all the stronger for not getting involved. It remains the only large military powere that could alter the balance of power. Germany has taken on the role of protector of the Baltic states having agreements with Finland, Estonia and Latvia. In addition Germany has an interest in Romania as a result of oil imports.

Italy gained somewhat as a result of the war. It's military helped to save the Ukraine and thus it has gained some influence in that country and in Romania. Still the Italian military was not able to win the war. Mussolini has shown that Italy is to be considered a player.
France- the French may be the country that could supply the Poles and the Ukraine with the armys needed to secure their security but are they willing to take the risk. So I will think about this before considering starting the next posting.
 
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