Stalin's gamble in may 1940

What if, good uncle Joe decides that during the battle of France is the right moment to stab Grofaz in the back. Yes during the Winter War the Red Army didn't do so we'll, but at Khalkhin Gol last summer, Zhukov proved that in the right circumstances and with an adequate strategy it could do quite a show. Stalin knows that Germany must finish with the western allies first and a great deal of the Whermacht will be deployed in the west. So with a few hundred thousand or maybe a few million workers, don't know how many is plausible, working around the clock, can they improve the rail network in soviet ococcupied Poland, to supply, maybe 3 million men with 5000 tanks and 5000 airplanes, before the summer of 1940? So in may 1940, when the germans are heavily involved in France, with the armored spearheads racing towards the English channel, Stalin decides that he won't get another chance like that an gives the order to "liberate" Europe. How much can they advance and how will the germans (Adolf) react ? I suppose that the french won't surrender in those circumstances.
 
Tried this just once on the game board. A attack straight out of the forward camps and barracks, with negligible preliminary mobilization did not go far. It was November-December before Warsaw was threatened. If the German play had better nerves he would have finished off the campaign in the west rather than breaking off the offensive & leaving France south of the Somme river intact. Limited offensives on both fronts in the Autum were successful in operational terms, but on that game board the German player was in deep trouble in 1941. But, that was just one game with a very surprised German player. Results may vary.
 
Tried this just once on the game board. A attack straight out of the forward camps and barracks, with negligible preliminary mobilization did not go far. It was November-December before Warsaw was threatened. If the German play had better nerves he would have finished off the campaign in the west rather than breaking off the offensive & leaving France south of the Somme river intact. Limited offensives on both fronts in the Autum were successful in operational terms, but on that game board the German player was in deep trouble in 1941. But, that was just one game with a very surprised German player. Results may vary.
Finish campaign in the west. But how finish it? Would France be willing to ask for armistice or will they decide to fight on? If they do, will Germany have enough men to finish of French in metropolitan France while Soviets are attacking from East? They will need to ressupply and transfer number of divisions. Brits may be willing to sent more RAF squadrons to Southern France. Even Mussolini may decide to wait.
 
It's worth noting that Poland is not Finland - the terrain is much more favourable to the Soviets. Even so... The logistics and poor ability the Red Army's officers to make quick decisions (due to the commissar system as it existed in that time, where every order needed to be signed off on by both officer and commissar), make this probably a bad choice for Stalin. And I'm not sure such a large force is a good idea - a smaller force that can be better supplied might well do better.

This is great for the WAllies though!

fasquardon
 
... Would France be willing to ask for armistice or will they decide to fight on? If they do, will Germany have enough men to finish of French in metropolitan France while Soviets are attacking from East? ...

In that particular game Paris was never captured. The German player effectively postponed a offensive south (Op GREEN) four-five months. After the successful May battles the grey German pieces were rushed eat to save Warsaw and Prussia. At the time I thought Paris was worth more than Warsaw & thought the move a mistake. One other point I remember; is by the end of 1940 no one other than Britain had a effective air force. Maybe 20% of their starting combat power. Britain had more, but still less than half of its OTL strength.

Again this is one small sample. Results May Vary.
 
Maybe the political comisars wouldn't have such a major role, considering that the Soviets would now be on the offensive, not on the defense of the motherland, with huge pressure from uncle Joe to push the enemy back. Zhukov might even get a free hand on how to conduct the operation. The VVS would have the initiative without the huge losses suffered in OTL. I believe that western Poland and east Prussia will be overrun before the Soviets start having logistical problems.
 
They might get away with improving the railline and overall infrastructure of occupied Poland under the guise of the Soviet-German Commercial agreement.

Thinking about that, if the Soviet Union attacks in may 1940, raw materials stop flowing into Germany from then on, and Hitler misses out on a lot of oil(150,000 tons a month in 1940) and grain he needs to keep the war machine going. With France not giving up you might be looking at a German army unable to continue operating because of lack of oil and food, by the end of 1940.
 
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1. If the USSR is suddenly in the game, Romania might just declare as well, and make sure to invite an Anglo-French military mission, if only to guarantee the Russians don't try anything funny

2. It's unlikely the French surrender when they did OTL. If they were smart, they'd abandon the Maginot line after Fall Rot breaches the hedgehog defenses, and move the skeleton force that was still holding the Maginot south-west, to defend Lyon.

3. Luftwaffe attrittion was horrendous. Another couple of months of high-tempo combat over France will gut the force.

4. Would the Germans be ready for any sort of counterattack in the east before the autumn rains fall? I doubt it.
 
Well, the allies put themselves first, so if the Soviets keep Poland and a chunk of Germany that's unfortunate but at least France will survive.
How much of Germany you speak of and did the United Kingdom and France not go to war over Poland with Germany only to say to the Soviet Union, no problem you can keep Poland, we do not mind.
 

Cook

Banned
The most immediate problem with this scenario is always: “Why would Stalin do this?”

And it cannot be simply that the Nazis pose an obvious existential threat to the Soviet Union; as far as Marxist-Leninism was concerned, all of the capitalist powers posed such a threat and fascism was indistinguishable from the bourgeois capitalist imperialists in Britain and France, who Stalin suspected of trying to lure the Soviet Union into the war as a means of defeating the revolution. Moreover, Stalin was well aware that the British and French were preparing to bomb the Soviet oilfields of the Caucasus.

So, given all that, and given that all of his military commanders were agreed that the war in the west would last several years and could go either way, why on earth would Stalin risk entering the war when, with every day that the Soviet Union remained on the sidelines it grew stronger?
 
The most immediate problem with this scenario is always: “Why would Stalin do this?”

And it cannot be simply that the Nazis pose an obvious existential threat to the Soviet Union; as far as Marxist-Leninism was concerned, all of the capitalist powers posed such a threat and fascism was indistinguishable from the bourgeois capitalist imperialists in Britain and France, who Stalin suspected of trying to lure the Soviet Union into the war as a means of defeating the revolution. Moreover, Stalin was well aware that the British and French were preparing to bomb the Soviet oilfields of the Caucasus.

So, given all that, and given that all of his military commanders were agreed that the war in the west would last several years and could go either way, why on earth would Stalin risk entering the war when, with every day that the Soviet Union remained on the sidelines it grew stronger?
Because the French where almost finished and the Wehrmacht was spred deep inside french territory, so all of his military commanders might be wrong and would be no more a long war. With France out of the picture, GBR might also ask for peace. Above that the german eastern border was ripped for the taking.
 

Cook

Banned
Because the French where almost finished and the Wehrmacht was spred deep inside french territory, so all of his military commanders might be wrong and would be no more a long war.

Putting aside for a moment the fact that Stalin's generals were telling him that this would be a long war because that's what Stalin himself believed (generals who said otherwise found themselves with very shortened careers, not to mention lives), there is the fact that the German Wehrmacht had just demonstrated what could be done with mechanised mobile warfare; a form of warfare that the Red Army had no capacity for because Stalin had just had its principal proponents shot, along with 33,000 other officers.

He would also know that his forces wouldn't get very far before the Germans were able to redeploy forces from France to their Eastern Front; the Red Army was designed along the same lines as the French Army, based around massed infantry with armour in support - which the Germans had just demonstrated a superiority to.

Then there is the problem he would be facing trying to sell this war to the people; the Tsarist regime had collapsed because of a reclass military adventure; there was a deep seated fear amongst the Bolsheviks of rebellion if they became involved in a protracted war and a very deep suspicion as to the real loyalty of the Red Army; hence the purges. They'd only just sold the country on the pact with the Fascists, to then turn around and attack Germany would have undermined all of that propaganda.


With France out of the picture, GBR might also ask for peace.

Far from just fearing that the British were about to accept terms from Hitler, Stalin had considerable concerns that the British could throw in their lot with Germany. On the eve of the German offensive the British replaced Chamberlain as prime minister with the most reactionary man in the House of Commons; as Home Secretary Churchill had been a notorious opponent of organised labour, then as Secretary of State for War he had sent troops and munitions to Russia in an effort to crush with Revolution in its infancy, and he had spent the last twenty years in an unrelenting propaganda war against the Bolsheviks. That, combined with Britain's ongoing plans to bomb Baku which Stalin was kept fully informed of, and Stalin had fair reason to fear that he might soon be fighting the British; hardly an opportune time for risky adventures, and Stalin wasn't a man who liked taking risks.

Putting all that aside, then there's the not inconsiderable problem of incompatible rail networks to deal with after crossing the old Polish border, and then of course, there's the weather.
 
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We often talk about the military situation - but what about the political one?

I agree France probably won't now surrender, even if Germany continues to hammer France, as France has a potential saviour in the Soviet Union (or at least, Germany has the potential to be defeated) and therefore a North Africa escape looks feasible.
What about the rest of Europe? Stand aside? Join the Allies, Soviets or the Axis? Would Italy jump in (probably not)?
 
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