Stalingrad-on-Thames: The disaster of Operation Sealion, and the world after

TheKinkster

Banned
Yes, I know Sealion has been done to death. MORE than to death.

This is NOT, repeat, NOT, a "what if Operation Sealion had been attempted" thread. I am assuming what others have stated, and Sandhurst wargames have concluded--that even in the BEST POSSIBLE CIRCUMSTANCES for Germany Sealion would have been a disaster. For the sake of this thread I am assuming:

(1) Germany gets those "best possible circumstances", as I will detail here.
(2) The invasion doesn't work, as it wouldn't have, and...
(3) The Fuhrer decides to not see the failure even when it is smacking him across the face.

What I DO intend this thread to be is an examination, both in the short and longer-term, of what the consequences of this would have been both for the war, and for the rest of the world, and how our history would have been changed.

Just wanted to get this explanation up for now to get the ball rolling--I'll have my first post up a bit later tonight or tomorrow afternoon my time (East Coast USA).
 
Oh great, another "how the Allies could have won even more decisively than they already did" variation. We haven't had one of those in a long time :rolleyes:
 
Oh great, another "how the Allies could have won even more decisively than they already did" variation. We haven't had one of those in a long time :rolleyes:

To be fair, we haven't. Most WWII TLs are attempts to keep the Axis going longer/help them win or dystopias that see the Allies struggle even more than early OTL, a la For All Time.
 

TheKinkster

Banned
Ok, class, settle down. As you know, today we are going to discuss the events of September 27, 1940 in the context of the war up to that point.

As you well know, Sealion at that point was recognized as a colossal failure except by the one man who's opinion truly mattered up to that point: Adolf Hitler. True, the Luftwaffe had managed to cripple the RAF and it's airfields in the three weeks of air attacks leading up to Sealion, but crippled and destroyed are two different things.

The main problem the Germans had was that the Luftwaffe was being asked to do too many things...ride herd on the remainder of the RAF, and protect the invasion barges as they brought more and more troops to England, and protect the supply barges, and attack the Royal Navy to prevent it from using the barges for target practice...you get the drift. Too many things to do, too little Luftwaffe, and ALL those things would have had to be done for Sealion to be successful.

By 27 September, the German forces in Britain were not much more than a poorly-supplied mob...papers discovered after the war show Hitler was shocked that the entire Royal Navy had sortied against the invasion, accepting grievous casualties from air attack in order to sink reinforcements and supplies going to Britain. Odd, he was the only one who was...

At the meeting of the General Staff with the Fuhrer on September 27th, the mood was grim. Reports of high casualties and lack of supply among the German forces were presented. According to the memoirs of one of the minor generals in the room, Chief of the General Staff Halder very gently suggested to the Fuhrer that perhaps the time had come to negotiate with the British and get German forces out of England.

The Fuhrer became quickly irate. General Marks memoirs state that he was berating Halder so vociferously Halder was shaking...but that it looked like it would just be another Fuhrer tantrum...until Hitler uttered those fateful words..."...and your vaunted Wehrmacht has turned out to be nothing more than a bunch of incompetent idiots--I could get a bunch of JEWS to command your vermin and do better!"

Marks states that incredibly enough, Halder's face, which had been turning redder and redder through the Fuhrer's diatribe, became white as a ghost at this point...until with one swift move Halder pulled out a sidearm from under his uniform tunic and put two bullets in the Fuhrer's forehead.
 
Ok, class, settle down. As you know, today we are going to discuss the events of September 27, 1940 in the context of the war up to that point.

As you well know, Sealion at that point was recognized as a colossal failure except by the one man who's opinion truly mattered up to that point: Adolf Hitler. True, the Luftwaffe had managed to cripple the RAF and it's airfields in the three weeks of air attacks leading up to Sealion, but crippled and destroyed are two different things.

The main problem the Germans had was that the Luftwaffe was being asked to do too many things...ride herd on the remainder of the RAF, and protect the invasion barges as they brought more and more troops to England, and protect the supply barges, and attack the Royal Navy to prevent it from using the barges for target practice...you get the drift. Too many things to do, too little Luftwaffe, and ALL those things would have had to be done for Sealion to be successful.

By 27 September, the German forces in Britain were not much more than a poorly-supplied mob...papers discovered after the war show Hitler was shocked that the entire Royal Navy had sortied against the invasion, accepting grievous casualties from air attack in order to sink reinforcements and supplies going to Britain. Odd, he was the only one who was...

At the meeting of the General Staff with the Fuhrer on September 27th, the mood was grim. Reports of high casualties and lack of supply among the German forces were presented. According to the memoirs of one of the minor generals in the room, Chief of the General Staff Halder very gently suggested to the Fuhrer that perhaps the time had come to negotiate with the British and get German forces out of England.

The Fuhrer became quickly irate. General Marks memoirs state that he was berating Halder so vociferously Halder was shaking...but that it looked like it would just be another Fuhrer tantrum...until Hitler uttered those fateful words..."...and your vaunted Wehrmacht has turned out to be nothing more than a bunch of incompetent idiots--I could get a bunch of JEWS to command your vermin and do better!"

Marks states that incredibly enough, Halder's face, which had been turning redder and redder through the Fuhrer's diatribe, became white as a ghost at this point...until with one swift move Halder pulled out a sidearm from under his uniform tunic and put two bullets in the Fuhrer's forehead.

Oh, please make a downfall parody of Sealion, if you dare
 
So what happened to
" an examination, both in the short and longer-term, of what the consequences of this would have been both for the war, and for the rest of the world, and how our history would have been changed.":mad:
 
Your project has a great name: Stalingrad-on-Thames. You know it's gonna hurt with a name like that.

Wait; did a failed invasion lead to Hitler getting whacked?
 
Well, gosh, this isn't a British Stalingrad scenario! Right at the moment that everyone in Berlin knows the Fuerher is nuts, someone (of the highest social ranks and impeccable conservative credentials) shoots him. This is one of those "the generals pull a coup, make nice, everyone lives happily ever after" threads!

I guess it could get convoluted if Himmler or Heydreich or one of those loony hardcore Nazi types jumps in fast enough and guns down all the generals and makes out that Halder really was a secret Jew...But spin is much easier to apply either when Germany is riding high or when they face a desperate defeat. Here, the bloom is definitely off the rose, what with lots of the Germany army being held prisoner in England, yet on the whole Germany is in a good position on the continent, so it's a good time to reassess. I daresay many Germans shared Hitler's fear of the Soviets and lust for Russian resources, but most would not be so bold as to plan to crush the Bolsheviks tomorrow; mirroring Stalin they'd favor building up their forces and watching and waiting for an opportunity to be handed them.

The biggest fly in the ointment of a negotiated peace between Britain and Germany would be, what to do about Poland. Basically the British would be insisting the Germans disgorge all their wartime conquests--starting with Poland. If the Germans withdraw though, they'd be surrounding themselves with badly wounded but live enemies.
 
The real question of the whole thing is whether the Germans can pile enough forces into the coastal ports (especially Dover) to take them intact. If they can do that they can start moving armour in en-masse, otherwise they're stuck with infantry (and ever-shrinking amounts of that as well, since the last actions of RAF 11 Group will probably be to hit the barges as hard as possible), and thus make little or no progress for quite some time.
 
The title is... really provocative. It makes me want to follow this thing. I wonder How America is going to react to all this.

Sea Lion fails threads are becoming almost as common.

Well, at least the "Glossary of Sealion Threads" have managed to accomplish something.

Didn't see that coming... I'm not sure Halder was the type for that kind of thing, actually.

Uh... actually, he was. The only thing stopping him was that oath of loyalty to Hitler. It is possible that Sealion would have exposed Hitler's strategic ineptitude enough to make Halder want to override the oath and put Hitler out of his misery.
 
The real question of the whole thing is whether the Germans can pile enough forces into the coastal ports (especially Dover) to take them intact. If they can do that they can start moving armour in en-masse, otherwise they're stuck with infantry (and ever-shrinking amounts of that as well, since the last actions of RAF 11 Group will probably be to hit the barges as hard as possible), and thus make little or no progress for quite some time.

With the exception of Dover, those 'coastal ports' are basically overgrown fishing villages.
Given the defences of Dover, and the chance of it getting taken before the port facilities are demolished into pile of rubble....
 
The idea that Hitler would let his generals in his presence while they were armed is more ASB than even Sealion.
 
Given the defences of Dover, and the chance of it getting taken before the port facilities are demolished into pile of rubble....
Well therein, Germany isn't going to be able to bring any sort of armour to bear until probably mid '41 at least, by which time lend-lease will probably have given the British enough guns and armour to neutralise the German tanks anyway.

Of course, with so much action on the home front, Rommel would probably be unopposed in North Africa...
 
Top