Stalin unilaterally escalates the Sudetenland crisis

The Soviets knew in 1948 that the US nuclear arsenal did not exist while their conventional advantages in any war that had broken out were overwhelming. War did not break out. The Soviets were not exactly going to up and start a war in the 19430s/1940s when they had nowhere near the favorable situation a 1948 shooting war over Berlin would have portended. After all in 1948 the Soviets were a global superpower, in 1938 they were nothing of the sort.

Snake you are missing the context of what I was saying

Stalin had all the cards in 48 and his brinksmanship got him jackshit; and the treaty he signed left the Russians worse off than they where before the airlift (including a signatorial recognition of west berlin)

That treaty and the whole game could be regarded as 100 percent not what the Soviets wanted
 
Snake you are missing the context of what I was saying

Stalin had all the cards in 48 and his brinksmanship got him jackshit; and the treaty he signed left the Russians worse off than they where before the airlift (including a signatorial recognition of west berlin)

That treaty and the whole game could be regarded as 100 percent not what the Soviets wanted

Likewise you're missing the entire point of what *I'm* saying, namely that when the Soviets had and knew they had an unstoppable short term military advantage they did not initiate a war. In 1938 they have none of this, and are even less likely to initiate a war over the Sudetenland.
 
Likewise you're missing the entire point of what *I'm* saying, namely that when the Soviets had and knew they had an unstoppable short term military advantage they did not initiate a war. In 1938 they have none of this, and are even less likely to initiate a war over the Sudetenland.

The problem was that they didn't have that unstoppable military advantage. Their nation was just begin the road to recover from a devastanting war, there where the effort to weed out the opposition to the communist regime in the just conquered land and the population in general was tired; otherwise Stalin would have tried to use more force in one of the dozen of crisis of the immediate post-war (Greeks civil war, Iran, Turk straits, Trieste, Tito rebellion), but he was a too cautios man in foreign policy when he wasn't sure that it will be a military cakewalk.
 
Likewise you're missing the entire point of what *I'm* saying, namely that when the Soviets had and knew they had an unstoppable short term military advantage they did not initiate a war. In 1938 they have none of this, and are even less likely to initiate a war over the Sudetenland.

I wasn't responding to the context of the OP

I was responding to your claim that Stalin was awesome at negotiating 1 sided treaties in his favor; and the treaty after the Berlin air lift was 1 sided against Soviet interests :)
 
even if stalin escalates it, there's no war in 38, even hitler said that "with those people i cant have a war", refering to his own people after a military parade didnt produce the desired 1914 enthusiasm.
 
Hitler being who he was could not have backed down in the face of Stalin's threats. It would have meant a huge loss of face, not just internationally but with his own generals. If the Czechs publicly declare they will not yield any territory and will fight if invaded I think Hitler would still choose war. In OTL Case Green remained in effect even after the Czechs began mobilization and France began a partial mobilization and even Chamberlain stated that if France went to war Britain would feel obliged to do the same.

Given that Hitler will not back down in the face of threats from the hated communists.

Chamberlain would definitely see Stalin as escalating a delicate situation and blame him rather than Hitler. Remember that at THIS point, mid 1938, not only is appeasement the current policy but Hitler appears to only be trying to bring German nationals back into the Reich. His demands did not seem all that unreasonable and there was a sense that the Versailles Treaty had been unjust and modifications were in order. In Chamberlain's point of view Hitler's demands were reasonable and the problem was finding a method to placate him peacefully. To the Prime Minister Stalin's rash guarantee and the Czechs refusal to negotiate would be the problem.

If Romania was willing to allow overflights and the passage of Soviet troops I think France would feel obligated to fight if their allies Czechoslovakia and the USSR got into a shooting war. Even if the UK stayed out of it Germany would be doomed given how militarily weak they were at this time.

Hitler was never one to acknowledge military reality and I believe he would insist on Case Green no matter what. The result is either his arrest by the generals and a coup, or a very short war and quick defeat. Either way Hitler and the Nazis don't survive.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
He was in the middle of gutting his officer corps; now is the absolute WORST time for the Soviets to go to war.
 
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