Stalin Strikes First

Suppose for a second the Soviet Union invaded Poland sometime after signing the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, but before September 1st. Would Britain and France have declared war on the USSR? And what of Hitler? He could not have scripted a better chance to grab Libenstraum and defeat Communism, what with the world's two most powerful countries as potential allies. It is not likely, but with a common, aggressive enemy, and with a well played hand, stranger things have happened.

The Soviet Army would have already been decimated by the purges of the 1930s, so they probably would have had pretty rough going in the opening stages. But then, they held their own under Zhukov at Nomonhan in 1938. So it would most likely have been either a repeat of that or the Winter War with Finland, writ much larger.

What do you think? Is this a possibility? How would the war have played out?
 
The question is why would he? Poland was the buffer zone, invading Poland without German conscent would mean war. The Soviet Union was not prepared for war with Germany. The army command was recently purged, a new generation of weapons systems was not yet in service. The Third Five Year Plan had just started.

If Stalin planned for war with Germany in 1939 a lot of things would have to change. He certainly would not have purged the army for starters.
 
Originally posted by metalstar316
Germany invading Poland without Soviet consent didn't mean war.....

Actually, Germany HAD Soviet consent to invade Poland. That was what Ribbentrop-Molotov pact was all about - officially, non-aggression pact, in secret protocols - a partition of eastern Europe, including Poland and Baltic states.
Personally, I don't believe Stalin would have invaded Poland first. He wanted Hitler to fight western powers, so both sides would be weakened. And remeber, R-M pact was a tactical one - Hitler and Stalin knew, sooner or later there would fight each other. After all, Hitler still wanted Lebensraum, and according to Mein Kampf that Lebensraum was in USSR.
 
Why would Stalin do that? He's smarter than to haul off and piss off both the West and the Germans when he was in weak condition to do so.
 
Ironically, I think M-R pact didn't discount a first move by the Soviet Union, just the final borders of who gets which part of Poland to abuse:

http://www.fordham.edu/halsall/mod/1939pact.html

Undoubtedly, Poland will DoW the Soviet Union. The UK and France would probably take all measures short of war against the Soviets, and if nothing else, a later realignment between the Soviets and the UK would be far harder to achieve.

What this probably means is that Germany moves into Poland after the Soviets have crushed Poland's army, grab their share of the nation, and might avoid an Allied DoW at present.

What is VERY likely to happen is the UK and France declaring war on both countries in the not to distant future. The UK would probably aid Finland and Romania as much as possible, even though these nations have little chance of surviving the allied onslaught. This curveball against the Allies might prevent a war in 1939, but it would greatly antagonize them. The carving up of Eastern Europe might provoke a war from the Allies on counts of Soviet or German Aggression--a threat that MIGHT give Stalin pause, if not Hitler.

One likely result is a triangle war: Allies vs. Axis vs Commintern in a three way battle that the allies should EVENTUALLY win, with the atomic bomb. The advantage might go to whoever can make a peace deal in that triangle--and due to the brutality of the Soviet/German War, a peace deal is going to be firmly in the Allies' court.

WW2: Triangle would be a crazy but plausible outcome.
 
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