Stalin stabs Hitler in the back in May 1940.

Let me return to the subject of geman forces assigned to the Eastern Front. According to the Axis History Handbook the Eastern front had its forces divided into 3 groups Command Nord-2 corps with a total of 2 infantry and 2 landwehr divisions, Mitte--3 corps with 4 infantry and 4 landwehr divisions, Sud: 1 corp-2 infantry divisions,3 Landwehr divisions,1 other division and 1 group.

The OKH had the following reserves which were not committed to operations on the western front-45th,50th,60th,72nd,78th,86th,161st,162,167,169 183 205th ,212th,221st,260th,290th,295th,299th infantry divisions. In addition there was 1 SS and 15 infantry divisions that were forming. The luftwaffe had the 22nd Airlanding diviision under its command..

If the Soviet attacked on the 10th then 2 SS diviisions that were released to the western front on the 12th and 17th of May would have been dispatched to the east , 5 infantry diviisons were relesed to the west ern front on the 13th ((10th,46th,57th,217th 44th) and the 11th Inf Bde (Mot) was released on the 12th ).

Thus I once again point out that with some warning the OKH could transefer a considerable amount of forces to the east which would be fully equipped and trained.
 
Let me return to the subject of geman forces assigned to the Eastern Front. According to the Axis History Handbook the Eastern front had its forces divided into 3 groups Command Nord-2 corps with a total of 2 infantry and 2 landwehr divisions, Mitte--3 corps with 4 infantry and 4 landwehr divisions, Sud: 1 corp-2 infantry divisions,3 Landwehr divisions,1 other division and 1 group.

The OKH had the following reserves which were not committed to operations on the western front-45th,50th,60th,72nd,78th,86th,161st,162,167,169 183 205th ,212th,221st,260th,290th,295th,299th infantry divisions. In addition there was 1 SS and 15 infantry divisions that were forming. The luftwaffe had the 22nd Airlanding diviision under its command..

If the Soviet attacked on the 10th then 2 SS diviisions that were released to the western front on the 12th and 17th of May would have been dispatched to the east , 5 infantry diviisons were relesed to the west ern front on the 13th ((10th,46th,57th,217th 44th) and the 11th Inf Bde (Mot) was released on the 12th ).

You mean that these divisions were not _initially_ committed in the West, right. Because I checked the history of a sample of four of them, and each one was in France or in the West in June 1940, you know. The 299. in June was with the 16. Armee, and it was a 8. Welle Division with all that this entails. The 295., also 8. Welle, in June was with the 2. Armee. The 169. in June was with the 16. Armee, and it was a 7. Welle unit. The 45. was a 1. Welle unit, sure, only it had been diluted by using part of it to create the 297., and in June it was with the 2. Armee anyway.

Please check yourself the individual history of the others, and tell us how many of them did not reach France or Belgium or a Western German region in June of 1940.

I suspect none, save those other 14 that were still forming, and whose combat worthiness would be abysmal. But please let me know if I'm wrong. If I'm right, this confirms the information already posted as to the German divisions actually available in the East and in reserve.

As to the 22. Luftlande, elements of it were used in the airborne operations in Holland, and I wouldn't be surprised if the elements not used were not ready for combat.

As to those other units you list, of which you did know that in OTL they went to France. Sure, they can go East, just like the above. The point several posters have been making is exactly that the Soviet move will ruin Fall Gelb. Take away all those units and it is a virtually sure thing the Western Allies stand, no matter how far into Poland the Soviets arrive. That was the whole point.



Thus I once again point out that with some warning the OKH could transefer a considerable amount of forces to the east which would be fully equipped and trained.

The 299. was raised in February 1940, so I have my doubts as to its being fully trained. As to its being fully equipped, you could start by proving, with documented info, that it had at least what a 8. Welle division should have had. Which, _on paper_, was way less than what a 1. Welle division had.
 
@ chris N

Unless Stalin attacks after the dates you mentioned (assuming that the Germans get the warning too late or not at all). Then those divisions will already be in the west.
 
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Michele, I have little doubt that if there had been no attack most or all of the OKH reserves may have been sent to the West. My Point, which you seem to ignore is that if Stalin had attacked before the 12th of May they would have been available to respond to the Russian attack.

As for equipment they would have been a lot better equipped than the Landwehr divisions that were on duty in the east and the High command felt that they were wellenough equipped to fight in the west.
 
Also to remember the reaction from abroad. Remember that Americas had seen Germany as the 'buffer against Communism'. How will they react when the Communists are the ones doing the invading? Forget about Land-lease, for starters.
 
if Stalin had attacked before the 12th of May
Assuming that Stalin did not know about Hitler's plans in big details (and available evidence seem to suggest he didn't), I wouldn't count on Red Army attacking before May 20th, and that is a stretch. Remember, it would have to be complete improvization and Soviets were barely able to move into Poland after 3 weeks preparations in previous fall. So, assuming no major leak in Red Army's C&C, Germany sin't likely to observe any signs suggesting that something big is cooking before May 15 the earliest (1st stage of any preparation happens in staffs and generally hidden from overflights, low-level agents etc.)
 
Michele, I have little doubt that if there had been no attack most or all of the OKH reserves may have been sent to the West. My Point, which you seem to ignore is that if Stalin had attacked before the 12th of May they would have been available to respond to the Russian attack.

As for equipment they would have been a lot better equipped than the Landwehr divisions that were on duty in the east and the High command felt that they were wellenough equipped to fight in the west.
But I guess the point is, even if they stop the Soviets, the invasion of France fails as a consecuence
 
One point that does not seem to have been raised either here or on the Axis History parallel thread http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=136058&sid=99ad85f29fa87d3efb93de4f71340e31 is that all German officers would have studied the battles of 1914 and read criticism of Moltke's decision to weaken his forces on the Marne by sending troops to East Prussia. Thus there would have been a huge reluctance to send anything east. I suspect that Germany would have essentially gambled that they could defeat France before disaster occurred in the East, perhaps sending a few units to defend Romanian oil. Thus I am going to assume below that the Battle of France might run almost as OTL.

The first difference might be that more RAF fighters might be sent to France as the immediate threat of a Battle of Britain have disappeared. However, I doubt that they would arrive in time.

The second might be that Mussolini would not be in such a hurry as the war looks likely to last a little longer.

The third change might be that France might (I am not sure) decide to fight on from Africa.

If France made peace as OTL, Mussolini hesitated and the Soviet forces stopped short of Ploesti, Silesia and Konigsberg, Germany might actually come out ahead. For example, Taft might win the Republican nomination and the election might limit American support for the British-USSR alliance. Germany might decide to raise its immediate production of tanks and guns during 1940 rather than 1943 (prepare for long arguments!). The Soviet forces might suffer seriously from August if Stalin had ordered then to maintain their advance. The Germans might even gain if they then entered the USSR without making any plans. At least nobody would be blamed for underestimating the problem when it was not their choice to fight.

 
Michele, I have little doubt that if there had been no attack most or all of the OKH reserves may have been sent to the West.

You can replace "may" with "would be". in OTL, they just were.

My Point, which you seem to ignore is that if Stalin had attacked before the 12th of May they would have been available to respond to the Russian attack.

The whole point of this thread is a stab in the back by Stalin. Why should Stalin be so stupid to stab before he fully sees Hitler's back, i.e., before the Germans are in the very midst of their commitment West?


As for equipment they would have been a lot better equipped than the Landwehr divisions that were on duty in the east and the High command felt that they were wellenough equipped to fight in the west.

Which is far from the claim you made above, that they were "fully equipped". Also, a transfer to Armee reserve in France does not necessarily mean they fought. They may well have been used, for instance, as LOC units in the occupied rear areas.
 
Much of this discussion rest upon when Stalin's forces would have struck the Germans in the East. If it wasn't until late in May then most of the army's reserves would have been sent to France.

The OKH reserves then would have soley consisted of 15-18 divisions that were in the process of training and outfitting themselves. Some of them would have been nearly ready but all of them would be used either to replace forces maining positions or sent to help defend the borders of the Reich.

Based upon what I have read in the past I am convinced that the German Military was conducting observation of what was going on in the east-ie russian occuppied Poland and the Western Part of the Soviet Union. Thus the surpirise attack may not have been a total surprise. This would allow German forces to be on alert and for some German forces not committed to battle in the campaign in the west to be dispatched to the east.

You are taking the fact that the divisions were sent to France in OTL and ignoring the possibility that in this time line intelligence or even a late warning could change where they ended up.

I fully agree with your point that if Stalin had attacked it would have beenthe begining of the end for Hitler. It is highly likely that the German military would have acted against him and even his fellow nazi leaders might have turned against him.
 
The reason why I'm taking the OTL transfers from OKH reserve to Armeen enganged in the West, and the reason why I consider that important, is that it goes to show those units were needed in the West in order to achieve the OTL German victory there.
Therefore, if those units become unavailable because needed elsewhere, taking into account that the German victory in the West was a close-run thing, the strong likelihood is that the Germans do not win in the West.
That is why their OTL transfer West is important. If they had remained unused, then one _might_ argue that the Germans can defeat the Western Allies as per OTL while containing, or trying to contain, the Soviets, then give up any idea of Seelöwe, leave a minimal garrison in France, Belgium, Holland, Denmark and Norway, and turn East to push the Soviets back.
But that is not the case. The German units not used in the West were those already mentioned as garrisons in Poland, those already mentioned as Eastern reserves, and those in training and formation, upon which I would not rely.
 
Michele, I can understand your reasoning. I do not believe that all of the divisions that were sent to the west were needed to asure the victory there but lets say that they were sent.

To fight against the soviets in the east would be those 18 divisions plus another 15-18 divisions that were under going training or had completed their training but had not been asigned to any command and thus would be consider OKH reserves after May 17 on. Until the battle in the west was deceided or until units could be tansferred this would be it. Without a doubt futher reservist or the next call of recruits would be called up so as to begin a futher expansion of the army and or replace loses.

It is likely that some luftwaffe units would immediately be transfered from the West and training personnel would also be turned to to counter the soviet thrust.

Based upon what I have read I do not believe that Hitler was ever serious in going through with the invasion of Great Britain and with an attack by the soviets it waould never happen.

Which also bring up the soviet attack force. In checking I have read that the soviet invasion of Poland was a disaster. Soviet tanks and trucks would constantly breakdown troops were poorly dressed, acording to reports of Polish citizens. The soviet armour at this point still consisted aminly of the BT-7, T-26 type of tanks and most was scattered rather than concentrated. It was doubt full if the soviet super heavy tanks would be available except in limited numbers.

Thus German froces would be capable of dealing with the soviet armour. In addition those German divisions that were at full strength would be nearly as large as 2 of the soviet divisions. Thus it would not be at all easy for the soviets to advance rapidly.

Still I do agree with you that a soviet attack could very well lead to a crisis in the west and the collapse of the Nazi regime.
 
I suspect that most of these divisions would be unavailable for the operation being needed to secure the borders of the Soviet Union, occupation duties in parts of Finland that have been annexed, Baltic states,facing Romania,etc.
While that would still leave a lot of divisions I believe that they would still be understrength and underequipped. Thus the 18 German divisions could be = to 40 to 54 soviet "Divisions".
 
While that would still leave a lot of divisions I believe that they would still be understrength and underequipped. Thus the 18 German divisions could be = to 40 to 54 soviet "Divisions".

No, the Soviet forces which were expanded were understrength and underequipped, but this did not happen until 1941. A Soviet division had strength of ca. 19 000 men in 1940 and most of the units were either at or close to TO&E strength as they had been mobilized in 1939.

http://www.winterwar.com/forces/SUvsFIN/SuDiv-FinDiv.htm

German units were ones understrength and underequipped. I think one German landwehr or 3 Welle division should be considered to be equivalent less than a Soviet 1940 division due to this. Lack of firepower compared to Soviet units at all levels should be remembered.
 
Jukra, That was the offical Soviet organization for 1939 and I wounder if the invasion of Poland in 1939 and the Russo-Finnish War of 1939-40 might have also ended up reducing the soviet military's divisional size. In checking out information I came across reports stating that the Soviet foce that attacked Poland in 1939 lacked proper clothing and most of its trucks and tanks tended to break down. Which makes me wonder how capable would it be in May of 1940 of conducting a large scale offensive.

I have little doubt that the Soviet army would be able to make some progress just due to its size but one also needs to take into account that German forces in places like East Prussia would be fighting on their homeland and territory that they knew well. In Poland defensive preparations and minefield may have inflicted lost and delayed any advance.
 
In checking out information I came across reports stating that the Soviet foce that attacked Poland in 1939 lacked proper clothing
Yes, and they rode battle bears and drunk Vodka from Samovars. Listen, Red Army was never as well-equipped as American, British or even German. It didn't prevent them from going all the way to Berlin IOTL.

German forces in places like East Prussia would be fighting on their homeland and territory that they knew well.
Most predictions I've seen are talking about attack from Byalystok to Danzig, creating giant cauldron encompassing whole Eastern Prussia.
 
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