Stalin orders another Great Purge of the officer corps after the Winter War

Has Stalin in his paranoia after the Winter War decided that cowardice and disloyalty of his officers was to blame for the war not going as well as he expected and thus decides to order another purge of his officer corps at roughly the size of his 1937 purge in order to get rid of 'the cowardy and disloyal elements' how negatively would that effect the Red Army's military readiness and capabilities in the years to come and what do you think would have been the impact on WW2 as a whole?
 
I believe that you would see a Red Army paralyzed by fear when the Germans invade. More lives will be lost as Commanders blindly counterattack and defend far past the point of insanity. Will it win the war for the Germans? Probably not, the Soviets will suffer more and will probably emerge from the war weaker, but I believe that they will survive. There is even a remote possibility that someone will find the courage to get rid of Stalin, but like I said that is a remote possibility at best.
 
Considering how bad the initial invasion was for the Russians IOTL it would probably go worse, with more attempts at betrayal. I could see one of Stalin's associates turning against him and a new socialist council taking over. They might try to make a deal with the Germans, the question is weather Hitler would accept it or not. I would say likely no, he would be riding high on his successes and figure why bother accepting half of his dream when Moscow is in his sights.
 
I can't really see that kind of mentality developing, the initial purges were meant to remove potential subversives (Old Bolsheviks, political appointees, old Tsarist officers, etc.) as well as potential claimants to Stalin's position. He pretty much accomplished the political goal of cowing the Red Army with the purge, and the mission in that sense was largely accomplished.

We have to remember that Soviet fortunes as the war went on actually increased, the Mannerheim Line was shattered and the Soviets were on the verge of a march to Helsinki by the time the war ended, the treaty that ended the war gave the Soviet Union a substantial amount of its prewar demands and basically wrecked the fact that Finnish defenses were entirely based around the defense of the Karelian Isthmus. Stalin was a ruthless pragmatist, not an idiot, he has no motivation to purge the army for a war the USSR turned around fairly well, the goal of the purges was to bring the army into line and prevent the possibility of it becoming either a political force or one that opposed Stalin for that matter, the 1937 purges did this and Stalin knew it. He also realized that reform of the army to compensate for the problems in Finland and with the Soviet army in general were going to need to come from everyone who was left after the purges.
 
Considering how bad the initial invasion was for the Russians IOTL it would probably go worse, with more attempts at betrayal. I could see one of Stalin's associates turning against him and a new socialist council taking over. They might try to make a deal with the Germans, the question is weather Hitler would accept it or not. I would say likely no, he would be riding high on his successes and figure why bother accepting half of his dream when Moscow is in his sights.

Wouldn't his officers be even more terrified of him though? I mean Hitler when he was making his worst decisions and was the most unstable and crazy still effectively managed to neuter any real dissent and any real possible threat to him among his officers by the post July 20th Purge.
 
Considering how bad the initial invasion was for the Russians IOTL it would probably go worse, with more attempts at betrayal. I could see one of Stalin's associates turning against him and a new socialist council taking over. They might try to make a deal with the Germans, the question is weather Hitler would accept it or not. I would say likely no, he would be riding high on his successes and figure why bother accepting half of his dream when Moscow is in his sights.

Stalin pretty systematically eliminated his potential rivals, by the time of 1937, the other two members of Stalin's old triumvirate were no longer a threat, Bukharin was a non-issue, and Trotsky was a two-bit shadow of his former power, and was in exile.

Ignoring that this kind of thinking wouldn't have happened to begin with since Stalin was an evil pragmatist as opposed to an evil idiot, there really is no credible anti-Stalin force in the late 30's, he would literally have to drop dead of natural causes, assassination with the fervently Stalinist NKVD snooping around is almost impossible.
 
There actually was a more limited purge that took place from 1940-41 of around 500 officers. Most were "leftovers" with some connection to those arrested in 1937 or who were friends with said "leftovers". Several hundred were executed and the rest released. But beyond this as HWG said a second Great Purge was simply not in Stalin's playbook; with a German invasion likely in the next few years he recognized that his army required major reforms, not a crippling series of purges.

In any case the Soviet military education system actually saw some major improvements between 1937 and 1941; more officers were graduated than ever before. The problem was that so many had been killed during the first Great Purge that by 1941 several more cadres were needed to provide trained staffs to the Red Army, which was also going through a massive expansion.
 
There actually was a more limited purge that took place from 1940-41 of around 500 officers. ...

I was about to say... it did continue on in fits & starts after 1937. After June 1941 the NKVD went nuts again in the summer & early autum looking for yet more traitors.


In any case the Soviet military education system actually saw some major improvements between 1937 and 1941; more officers were graduated than ever before. The problem was that so many had been killed during the first Great Purge that by 1941 several more cadres were needed to provide trained staffs to the Red Army, which was also going through a massive expansion.

That "massive expansion" was actually worse than the purge. between over promotion to provide officers & NCO for new formations there tens of thousands of reserve officers recalled to active duty. Their training needed to be brought up to speed, but administrative matters like feeding, barracks, medical care, equipment cleanining, ect.. ect... usually had to be taken care of first. The US Army went through the same thing from August 1940 to mid 1943, expanding from approx 200,000 regular army & 300,000 reservists & National Guards to eight million. The proper training of the officers/NCOs took up a huge portion of the preperations of 1940-43 & there was a continual tension between this training and the need for the leaders to 'administrate the expansion.
 

iddt3

Donor
Stalin pretty systematically eliminated his potential rivals, by the time of 1937, the other two members of Stalin's old triumvirate were no longer a threat, Bukharin was a non-issue, and Trotsky was a two-bit shadow of his former power, and was in exile.

Ignoring that this kind of thinking wouldn't have happened to begin with since Stalin was an evil pragmatist as opposed to an evil idiot, there really is no credible anti-Stalin force in the late 30's, he would literally have to drop dead of natural causes, assassination with the fervently Stalinist NKVD snooping around is almost impossible.
Except after the war his purges got even crazier. Doctor's plot anyone? I don't think more purges are likely, but they're certainly possible.
 

Deleted member 1487

There actually was a more limited purge that took place from 1940-41 of around 500 officers. Most were "leftovers" with some connection to those arrested in 1937 or who were friends with said "leftovers". Several hundred were executed and the rest released. But beyond this as HWG said a second Great Purge was simply not in Stalin's playbook; with a German invasion likely in the next few years he recognized that his army required major reforms, not a crippling series of purges.

In any case the Soviet military education system actually saw some major improvements between 1937 and 1941; more officers were graduated than ever before. The problem was that so many had been killed during the first Great Purge that by 1941 several more cadres were needed to provide trained staffs to the Red Army, which was also going through a massive expansion.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purge_of_the_Red_Army_in_1941
Between October 1940 and February 1942, the impending start of the German invasion in June 1941 notwithstanding, the Red Army, in particular the Soviet Air Force, as well as Soviet military-related industries were decapitated by repressions once again. After a pause in mass repressions after the Great Purge, in October 1940 the NKVD (People's Commissariat of Internal Affairs) under its new chief Lavrenty Beria started a new purge that initially hit the People's Commissariat of Ammunition, People's Commissariat of Aviation Industry and People's Commissariat of Armaments. High level officials admitted guilt, typically under torture, then testified against each other and were repressed on fabricated charges of anti-Soviet activity, sabotage and spying.

While the new wave of repression in the military-related industries continued well into 1941, in April–May 1941 Stalin's Politburo inquired about the high accident rate in the Air Force, which led to the dismissal of several commanders, including Head of the Air Force Lieutenant General Pavel Rychagov. In May, a German Junkers Ju 52 landed in Moscow, undetected by the ADF beforehand, leading to massive repressions among the Air Force leadership.[1] The NKVD soon focused attention on them and started repressions against the alleged anti-Soviet conspiracy of German spies in the military, centered around the Air Force and linked to the conspiracies of 1937-1938. The repression had taken on a large scale by early June, when the suspects were transferred from the custody of the Military Counterintelligence to the NKVD, and continued uninterrupted into well after the German attack on the Soviet Union, which started on June 22, 1941.
 
Except after the war his purges got even crazier. Doctor's plot anyone? I don't think more purges are likely, but they're certainly possible.

The purges were generally pretty integral to Stalin keeping power, their effects on the merits of the USSR and its leadership as a whole is entirely another matter, but Stalin ran a one-man show, and the purges were integral to him doing it.

The Doctor's Plot was probably the first step towards another big party purge. Stalin usually offed his secret police leaders during a purge (Yagoda, Yezhov, Beria was going to be no different), and he wanted to clear the old guard (namely Molotov and the aforementioned Beria) to make way for a new generation of Soviet leadership.
 
So, were the 1937 purges necessary? was the army on the verge of mutiny or rebellion?

Was it the "right" decision of Stalin?

Did the purges create a more loyal army or did it create sycophants?

Ivan
 
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