Stalin Heads East

If we take our cues as to how a potential Second Russo-Japanese war would shape up in spring/summer of 1940 from the Nomohan incident, to say the least the Japanese are screwed.
The Battle of Khalkhin Gol/Nomonhan was a significant Soviet victory. However, it is not clear whether the Red Army could simply "scale up" its Khalkhin Gol/Nomonhan victory against the whole Kwantung Army in May 1940. Zhukov greatly surprised the Japanese by carrying out a large scale offensive far from a railhead. He won, at least partly, because he could supply his forces for the offensive while the Japanese forces were very short of everything, including water (see "Nomonhan: Japan Against Russia, 1939", by Alvin D. Coox, page 568 and pages 579-580). However, Zhukov used every truck that he could find in the Far East and http://www.militaryhistoryonline.com/20thcentury/articles/nomonhan.aspx mentions that he was sent 1625 trucks from Europe. Thus a quick Soviet victory in 1940 might not occur because only a slightly larger operation than Khalkhin Gol/Nomonhan could be supplied. By August 1945, by contrast, the USSR had received and built a much larger number of trucks to supply its August Storm offensive.
 

burmafrd

Banned
In any kind of open ground the IJA has virtually no chance. Even badly led, the Soviet army had a lot more MGs, Mortars, Artillery, Tanks, trucks and so on. They were a mobile modern army. The IJA not only had few of the above, their tactics were just as old. I cannot see any scenario where the IJA is able to do much beyond slow the Red Army down somewhat. The IJN had priority on materials for building ships from the middle 30's on. You would need a POD for the IJA turning itself into something resembling a modern army of around 1930.
 
True but in reality the Russian Army of the late 1930's still wouldhave a lot of dead wood and it also did not have an unlimited amount of trucks. As was pointed out the Russians would have been unable to continue their offensive because they just did not have the means to continue. Also the Imperial Japanese Army did not commit its entire weight to the battle af Toyko reigned the army in.
 

burmafrd

Banned
if both sides build up for a real showdown the Red Army has a huge edge as long as the railhead holds up. The Red Army had done large scale maneuvers so they had a decent idea how to do it and just as important knew how to keep it supplied. The IJA had a lousy logistics system in comparison. As far as I can find out the IJA had never had any training exercises that went beyond division size. They had no concept of modern warfare as regards tanks and maneuver. Certainly nothing on any scale. The Red army liked to use massive force and firepower to overwhelm the opposition. The IJA in no way would be able to counter that in open terrain.
 
I tried to start a similar thread https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=131661 and my main question was whether Germany would have tried to launch a late 1940 Barbarossa rather than starting the Battle of Britain. If Germany does attack the USSR in August 1940, they will certainly not take Moscow that year. However, they will not meet any T-34s and the USSR will not receive many supplies from the Anglo-Americans because the Lend-Lease Act is still far in the future and the routes via Vladivostok and Iran are blocked (it would probably be hard to send convoys to Murmansk with Bismarck in Norway).

If Germany attacks, what happens to UK - Japanese relations? Might Japan move South without attacking the USA? Might they be stupid enough to attack the USA in 1940?
Japan would probably make peace with CHina and withdraw to pre-1937 borders, and concentrate all of their might in fending off the Soviets in Manchuria. That doesn't leave any room for a Pearl Harbor, besides, they are going to be looking for allies in the West now that they feel that Germany has betrayed them (by making a pact with the USSR).
 
The Japanese would've been sent reeling by the inevitable loss of Manchuria - by the late 30s, masses of Japanese settlers seeking "lebensraum" were pouring into the region, encouraged by an Imperial government desperately seeing the bounty offered by Manchurian agriculture. Japan's increasing reliance on Manchurian foodstuffs would've led to severe shortages in the home islands; And after years of dominating the region, loss to their 'weak' nemesis - an image reinforced constantly since the great 1905 victories, as well as German propaganda - would've led to psychological trauma in Japan. The losses at Nomonhon were a shock to the Japanese, losing all of Manchuria to the Soviet juggernaut would've panicked the Japanese to no end.

I would expect the Japanese to marshall their forces, and instead of expanding into the South Pacific, to attempt to build a massive defensive line in what remained of their Chinese/Manchurian possessions. A "Manchukuo Line" as it were.
 
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