Stalin Falls Off the Tiger

Unleashing terror is like riding a tiger. It’s a wild ride and it’s easy to fall off and be consumed.

Stalin unleashed an essentially unlimited terror on the Soviet Union in the mid-1930s. Nobody was safe, not the most dedicated old Bolshevik, not the dedicated foreign communists of the Comintern, and not the Red Army.

That kind of terror does tend to turn on the people who unleash it, as the French Revolution attests. I think that there was a realistic chance of that happening to Stalin, though it wasn’t as likely as the actual course of events.

Stalin was wary of subordinates gaining too much power, and tended to purge and execute them. Nikolai Yezhov was one of his major instruments in that process, and advanced to head the NKVD during the worst of the Great Purge. He replaced his mentor Genrikh Yagoda in September of 1936.



Yezhov led the worst of the purges, and actually went far enough that by the summer of 1938 Stalin began to realize that the purge was starting to impair the ability of the Soviet Union to continue industrialization. Stalin decided to dial back on the purges a bit, and replace Yezhov.


Yezhov had been inside the process, so when Stalin brought in Beria as Yezhov’s deputy in August of 1938 and Beria started usurping Yezhov’s power with Stalin’s encouragement, Yezhov could see where the course of events was likely to lead. He was quite capable of moving through the cut-throat world of Purge-era Soviet politics, and was apparently even tapping Stalin’s phone at one point, but as his power was stripped away he collapsed into drunkenness and probably accelerated the process of his ouster by essentially walking away from his job, not showing up much of the time. He was eventually purged and later executed. Other than some drunken boasting about ousting Stalin, he never mounted any serious effort to protect his position against Beria and Stalin.

Human psychology is tricky. Here is a guy who knows he’s almost certain to be purged and executed unless he derails Beria and Stalin. He’s powerful. He’s cutthroat, utterly ruthless, capable of clawing his way to the top of the NKVD, and then leading the purge of the Red Army and much of the rest of the Soviet elite. And yet he collapses.

Let’s say he gets some cornered rat courage and some luck. He manages to take out Stalin and frames Beria, probably in September or October of 1938.

That’s not easy given Stalin’s paranoia, but Yezhov has a tough road ahead even once he carries it out. He is a candidate member of the Politburo but has no major source of power outside the NKVD and fear. He is hated by most of Soviet society, though also feared by it. What happens next?[FONT=&quot]
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Yezhov would probably continue the purges rather than dialing them back. Fear is his major source of power, and he would want to enhance that fear and eliminate as many rivals as possible in the short term. That means that more of the army is purged, but also that Stalin’s loyalists get purged. Molotov would probably be purged early. I’m not sure about Kalinin. He might be allowed to continue his role as kind of puppet leader, at least for a while.

Yezhov would probably not take formal power, even if he was capable of it. He would probably prefer to rule from behind the scenes. Someone like Kalinin would be ideal as a front man, though his loyalty to Stalin might make that a problem.

I put together a list of full and candidate members of Politburo as of early 1934 and their fates, along with the people who were added between 1934 and 1938. I’m guessing that Kaganovich would be too closely tied to Stalin to survive.

With four full members of Politburo left, Yezhov would probably promote himself to full membership and bring in enough cronies to have a majority in the Politburo, though the real center of power would shift to the NKVD, at least in the short-term. I’m not sure what he would do with Zhdanov and Kruschev.

Yezhov probably wouldn’t last long. I would give him maybe a year or a year and a half at the most. Too unstable to handle absolute power without eventually disintegrating. Call it October or November of 1939.​
He would probably push the purge to unprecedented levels, purging Stalin loyalists, and probably including the NKVD itself in the purges toward the end. The military would get another round of purges to get rid of Stalin loyalists and anyone that seemed like a potential threat. That would probably include Zhukov.

How would all of this impact Soviet foreign policy? Probably not much for the rest of 1938. Even if the new regime wanted to help the Czechs in the lead-up to Munich they couldn’t do much unless the Poles or Romanians were willing to let Soviet forces go through their countries, which would be if anything less likely under Yezhov.

Under Stalin, the Soviets pretty much wrote off the Spanish Republicans in late 1938 and early 1939. There is some possibility of Yezhov making more of an effort to help, but it’s more likely that the continued insanity of the Soviet purges would, if anything, cause the Spanish Republic to fall a little sooner than it did historically. The Soviets were supporting Chinese resistance to the Japanese. I doubt that much would change there, though the contagion of purges might spread to the Chinese communist party. I doubt that though. The Chinese did things their own way even at this point, so I doubt that would make much difference.

Assuming that the Yezhov regime lasted, 1939 would get interesting. I haven’t been able to find anything on his foreign policy views, but I suspect he would be cautious, or actually preoccupied by his efforts to consolidate power at home. The continued instability and purges would probably attract unwelcome attention from the Japanese sometime in 1939. Whether or not they were the aggressors in our time-line, the Japanese would push aggressively on the disputed border in Manchuria.
 
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Something like the Nomanham battle would probably happen in the summer of 1939, though the details and location might be different. Given almost another year of full-throttle purges, the Soviets probably wouldn’t do particularly well, though their overwhelming superiority in firepower would make up for poor leadership to some extent. I suspect that the Soviets would lose a lot of men and material but grind out a draw that the Yezhov regime would celebrate as a victory.​
Would the Soviets go for a pact with the Germans in the Autumn of 1939? I doubt that Yezhov regime would be confident enough in its power to do something as drastic as that.​

So where do we go from here? How long does the Yezhov regime last? If it falls, how does that happen? Who takes over? What role does the Soviet Union play in World War II?
 
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[FONT=&quot]If this comes across readable I'll be surprised, but for what it is worth:
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[FONT=&quot]Soviet Politburo – early 1934, with additions and subtractions through 1938[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Full Members

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[FONT=&quot]Andreyev [/FONT][FONT=&quot]Stayed in Politburo until 1952 (sounds like a non-entity)[/FONT]​
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[FONT=&quot]Voroshilov [/FONT][FONT=&quot]Marshall of the Soviet Union, incompetent as a military leader, was able to stay in politics until the 1960s[/FONT]​
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[FONT=&quot]Kaganovich [/FONT][FONT=&quot]In politics until 1957, but lost influence after Stalin died, part of the opposition to Kruschchev[/FONT]​
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[FONT=&quot]Kalinin [/FONT][FONT=&quot]Nominal head of state, house kept surrounded by KGB during the Great Purges

[/FONT][FONT=&quot]Molotov[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]Kirov [/FONT][FONT=&quot]Assassinated Dec1, 1934[/FONT]​
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[FONT=&quot]Kosior [/FONT][FONT=&quot]Arrested May 1938[/FONT]​
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[FONT=&quot]Kuibyshev [/FONT][FONT=&quot]Died Jan 25, 1935[/FONT]​
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[FONT=&quot]Ordzhonikidze[/FONT][FONT=&quot]Suicides May 25, 1937

[/FONT][FONT=&quot]Stalin[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]Candidate Members[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]Mikoyan [/FONT][FONT=&quot]Full Member Feb 18,1937[/FONT]​
[FONT=&quot]Remained in Soviet politics into the 1960s[/FONT]​
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[FONT=&quot]Zhdanov [/FONT][FONT=&quot]Candidate Member Feb 18, 1937[/FONT]​
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[FONT=&quot]Yezhov [/FONT][FONT=&quot]Candidate Member October12, 1937[/FONT]​
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[FONT=&quot]Khrushchev [/FONT][FONT=&quot]Candidate Member April 29,1938[/FONT]​
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[FONT=&quot]Petrovsky?? [/FONT][FONT=&quot]Not sure when he left the Politburo, but may have been 1938[/FONT]​
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[FONT=&quot]Postyshev [/FONT][FONT=&quot]Relieved of duties Jan 14, 1938[/FONT]​
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[FONT=&quot]Rudzutak [/FONT][FONT=&quot]Expelled May 25, 1937[/FONT]​
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[FONT=&quot]Chubar?? [/FONT][FONT=&quot]Full Member Feb 18,1937[/FONT]​
[FONT=&quot]Relieved of duties March 22, 1939[/FONT]​
[FONT=&quot]Arrested June 1938??[/FONT]​
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[FONT=&quot]Eikhe [/FONT][FONT=&quot]Candidate Member Feb 18, 1937[/FONT]​
[FONT=&quot]Arrested May 3, 1938[/FONT]​

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So, as we lead up to World War II we have a Soviet Union in self-destruct mode, with the purges continuing and becoming more irrational. We have a leadership that almost everybody in the Soviet Union hates but fears. We have more Soviet industrial and military leaders dead or in the Gulags. The Soviets haven't started post-purge rebuilding because the purges aren't over. Supreme power and the paranoia that goes with it are causing Yezhov to disintegrate into drunkenness, with ambitious subordinates jockeying for power.

Germany would still seek an alliance with the Soviets, simply because they have to from a raw material standpoint. Yezhov isn't in a position to take that radical of a step because his power is shaky. It's late August 1939. Does Hitler still invade Poland and trigger World War II? What do the Soviets do about it?
 
I'd wager that in TTL come 1939, Hitler still invades Poland. The incredible amount of instability in the USSR is probably just as good as the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact was in terms of guaranteeing Germany's Eastern front.

Without the Soviet stab in the back, the Poles might be able to drag things out for a few more weeks which might cause logistical problems for the Germans. Then again, with a POD in the 1930's and no M-R pact, perhaps in TTL the Germans are a bit better prepared. In response I'd wager that the USSR would protest heavily and perhaps occupy the Baltic states for security.

Then again the threat from Nazi Germany might just be enough to cause forces within the USSR to bring an end to the purges and start rebuilding.
 
The Germans would perceive the Soviet Union as weaker. Would they go with their instincts and try to run roughshod in Eastern Europe, or would they try to manipulate the Soviets to provide more cover for German aggression?
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
I feel that you're grossly underestimating how important Stalin was.

If Yezhov does somehow manage to get rid of Stalin and tries to go after the Politburo, the Army's going to launch a coup. As you said, everybody knew how insane Yezhov was and hated him with a passion, but Stalin was protecting him. If Stalin is out of the picture, what's left of the military high command is going to shell the ever-living shit out of the Lubyanka and completely annihilate the NKVD.

This could very easily lead to either an outright military junta, or a restoration of the Politburo as the ones in charge but with the ever-present threat of a military coup if things "get out of hand." (The latter option is the most likely.)

The NKVD will be disestablished and its responsibilities transferred to the GRU a.k.a. the military. Yezhov will be demonized, Stalin remains the Holiest of Holies after Lenin instead of being disgraced as IOTL.

However it turns out, the USSR will be in a much better position to take on Germany when/if the war comes (no Stalin in '38 could very well butterfly away the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact) as it was completely Stalin's fault for the devastation that the Germans visited upon the Red Army in the early months of the War.

No Stalin also 100% fucks up the global communist movement, and therefore Leftist politics in general. Without Stalin the Godhead steering the Party, Moscow's going to lose a lot of influence over other communist parties.
 
No Stalin also 100% fucks up the global communist movement, and therefore Leftist politics in general. Without Stalin the Godhead steering the Party, Moscow's going to lose a lot of influence over other communist parties.

And this would be a good thing.
 
By the time Yezhov would have taken over, both the Politburo and the military high command were already pretty thoroughly purged of people with leadership potential. The rest were thoroughly cowed and watched carefully by Yezhov's people. A coup in the week or two after Stalin dies is possible, but not that likely. Stalin did a very thorough job of making a coup difficult, and his measures wouldn't simply go away when he died.
 
By the time Yezhov would have taken over, both the Politburo and the military high command were already pretty thoroughly purged of people with leadership potential. The rest were thoroughly cowed and watched carefully by Yezhov's people. A coup in the week or two after Stalin dies is possible, but not that likely. Stalin did a very thorough job of making a coup difficult, and his measures wouldn't simply go away when he died.

That doesn't mean a coup wouldn't be attempted, even so. However, it's of very dangerous probability that a military coup would fail due to the lack of coordination and leadership within the Red Army, and the security measures of the NKVD.

Yezhov would know quite well that the military would be the only immediate threat to his leadership after Stalin is disposed of, and would act on that knowledge ruthlessly. The other option for him is being stood up against a wall and shot, or dying of malnutrition and exposure in Siberia. A failed coup by Soviet military leaders would actually be useful to Yezhov--he could connect it to the "murder" of Stalin, and use it to justify harsher purges and control. Once he has full control over the Politburo, he needn't justify much to anyone, but in the time immediately after Stalin dies, such considerations would be important.

A poor performance in border skirmishing with Japan may be enough to have Yezhov let up the oppression on the military a bit, but only if his power is secure enough that he's able to do so. Even then, poor performance against Japan could be dismissed as the local commander's fault (fast-tracking him for gulag-tenure), or some other quirk or local issue.
 
It is hard to imagine a worse leader than Stalin running a nation, but I think Yezhov may well be that man.

He appears to be a sociopath, the greatest advocate of massive terror during the Soviet Era and a sexual deviant. It might also be added that he spend his last year heavily intoxicated, although this probably gets butterflied owing to the situation.

I'd imagine he appoints a loyalist (as much as someone like Yezhov can have one) to run the NKVD: Mikhail_Frinovsky would be the logical candidate.

In the face of all of this would be a major escalation of violence in the Soviet State--Stalin has been killed by counterrevolutionaries, and enemies of the people appear to be dominant.

The Soviet Union certainly must care about the danger posed by Germany and Japan, but the rising threats on its borders have to be ignored for political reasons. Hitler would probably still be in a similar position up until Summer 1939--but then there would be no deal over Poland. The Poles aren't stabbed in the back and have farther to withdraw in their campaign against Germany--but even if Polish Forces can hold on in the Eastern part of the country, it's not going to save them from a rapid loss of Warsaw.

No deal with the Soviets may mean that Germany doesn't prevail against France in 1940--but the French themselves showed very little willingness to fight, and German planning would definitely outperform the French Armed Forces. If France holds on, Germany would not have the opportunity to strike East and prevail.

If France holds, Germany is doomed.
If France folds, Germany is looking at an even better Barbarossa.

It would be nice for Yezhov if the Germans and the French fought a long war--but it's not something he gets to decide.
 
No deal with the Soviets may mean that Germany doesn't prevail against France in 1940--but the French themselves showed very little willingness to fight, and German planning would definitely outperform the French Armed Forces. If France holds on, Germany would not have the opportunity to strike East and prevail.

If France holds, Germany is doomed.
If France folds, Germany is looking at an even better Barbarossa

That last bit paints a dreadful picture. A more heavily purged, unreformed Red Army, and the Germans are just that much further east from the start.

Japan may feel in a much better position to make demands on Yezhov's USSR in that situation. While Japan invading eastern Siberia would be a foolish move that gains nothing, threatening hostilities with the Soviets in a much more critical state potentially offers them very much without fighting at all--Sakhalin, fishing rights, border revisions, recognition of Japanese puppets, (partial) demilitarization of the Soviet side of the border... Yezhov needs those troops in Europe anyways, and Japan could use theirs in China.

If the USSR collapses from the German onslaught after such an agreement, no big deal! Either Japan just sits on parts of the Trans-Siberian Railway and Vladivostok, or sets up a Russian Far East puppet state for itself, or presses further demands on the weak Soviet rump.

Lots of good options for Japan if they stay sane and avoid humiliation at Lake Khasan and Nomonhan, thanks to Yezhov's paranoid purges...
 
I'm unsure as to how Yezhov would handle international diplomacy and the conduct of the Soviet Union at war. I'd imagine that he was a very delusional type, the sort of person who inspires hate.

Of course, Yezhov would have a foreign secretary. But being the voice of the paranoid purge, Yezhov himself would probably have toadies and flunkies running the Soviet Politburo. I suspect that Yezhov didn't care much for ideological purity or popular culture--he cared about power and perhaps reveling in the suffering of his own people.

Chamberlain and Daladier aren't going to get any deals out of Yezhov. Hitler's offer of a non-aggression pact cemented by economic support is more tempting, but Yezhov would correctly see danger here as well.

The aim of Yezhov's government would be simple: Keep his sorry butt in power. The Purges may well still be happening while German Tanks break in.

Frankly, given this situation, I'd hope that the Germans make it to Moscow and Yezhov is deposed, leading to the Soviets rallying behind someone sane who would prove their legitimacy by holding on until the USA can save the day with Deus Ex Nukina. If Germany's victories over Poland and France remain intact, this is probably the best case scenario for the Soviet Union.

The Worst Case is that Hitler is correct: The Germans kick in the front door and the whole state comes crumbling down. People will fight for their lives, true, but to co-ordinate that effort is a FAR GREATER problem.

In full fairness, there is at least an outside chance that Nazi Germany doesn't make it that far. But I can't immediately how that would happen, and I'd have to conclude that Germany inheriting a functioning prison camp system in Siberia and putting the former camp guards inside is perhaps better than 50/50...
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
By the time Yezhov would have taken over, both the Politburo and the military high command were already pretty thoroughly purged of people with leadership potential. The rest were thoroughly cowed and watched carefully by Yezhov's people. A coup in the week or two after Stalin dies is possible, but not that likely. Stalin did a very thorough job of making a coup difficult, and his measures wouldn't simply go away when he died.
Not true. Zhukov, Shaposhnikov, Vasilevsky, even Timoshenko had the potential to launch a potential coup. None were bumbling, uncoordinated fools. Again, the second Stalin dies the Army's not going to take any more shit from the NKVD. Cheka who show up with an arrest warrant signed by Yezhov are either going to be sent packing or shot.

Again, people should not underestimate the central role Stalin played and the fact that, without his authority, the Purges would never have happened and the moment he died could not have continued, at least not amongst the Army officer corps.
 
Not true. Zhukov, Shaposhnikov, Vasilevsky, even Timoshenko had the potential to launch a potential coup. None were bumbling, uncoordinated fools. Again, the second Stalin dies the Army's not going to take any more shit from the NKVD. Cheka who show up with an arrest warrant signed by Yezhov are either going to be sent packing or shot.

Again, people should not underestimate the central role Stalin played and the fact that, without his authority, the Purges would never have happened and the moment he died could not have continued, at least not amongst the Army officer corps.

Doubtful.

Zhukov isn't even a general until 1940, and his patron is obviously dead.

Shaposhnikov was appointed chief of the general staff in 1937. He collaborated with the effort to purge Tukhachevsky, and may well be someone that Yezhov sees fit to keep.

Vasilevsky is also a character who would either conform to Yezhov's wishes or not get advanced into his office--which happened with stunning speed in 1937-9, and therefore under Yezhov's gaze.

Timoshenko wouldn't have the command over the whole border (which happened in 1939) unless he too affirmed Yezhov's wishes.

The man leading the Soviet Armed forces is the incompetent Kliment Voroshilov, a man who rivals Kaganovich and Molotov for the number of people sent to the gulags.

If Yezhov wants the purges to continue, he's got several people who have thrown their lot with that effort in place. The Army will want to stage a coup--but the army has already been badly disrupted and Voroshirov is hardly the man to take the reins.

Ultimately, Yezhov is going to be able to continue the purges. There will be other problems--the Soviet Food situation remains perilous, the Soviet People at least initially hate Yezhov, although unlimited terror may improve his image as people are unable to denounce him. The Soviet Union is well and totally screwed in terms of external politics, and the purges are starting to cause demographic problems.

I don't see an army coup as likely, considering as how Yezhov has already wiped out many of the old commanders under Stalin. Top leadership, at least, consists of toadies to Stalin's government. If that's not enough, I'm sure that Yezhov could at least vet the next tiers of command to ensure that this would not happen, as well as maintain the commissar system to ensure political loyalty.
 
Kind of a nightmare scenario if the Nazis go after an unreformed Red Army starting several hundred miles further east. One plus for the Soviets: Yezhov probably wouldn't start the Winter War, so the Finns would probably stay neutral. On the other hand, the Soviets probably wouldn't occupy the Baltic states. If the Nazis grabbed Lithuania sometime in the fall of 1940 they would start the campaign season considerably closer to both Moscow and Leningrad.
 
If the rest of the timeline stays fairly true, i.e. Germany takes out Denmark, Norway, Holland, Belgium and France in 1940, then turns to USSR, I would think that the Red Army's failures in the first 6 weeks of the war would lead to a coup. Stalin himself thought he was a goner after their performance and his isolation.
 
If the rest of the timeline stays fairly true, i.e. Germany takes out Denmark, Norway, Holland, Belgium and France in 1940, then turns to USSR, I would think that the Red Army's failures in the first 6 weeks of the war would lead to a coup. Stalin himself thought he was a goner after their performance and his isolation.

This is an interesting question: Is the rest of the TL staying true a fair assumption? It may be the easy thing for our own intellectual laziness, but is it legit?

Ultimately, I think not, but I'd agree that a massive disaster is likely to await the Soviets if Germany still manages a quick sweep against France. The gamble to take out France while the Soviet Union is obviously in no shape to intervene does sound like a move that Hitler would attempt, and a longer Polish campaign would not fundamentally change Germany's readiness for the 1940 season. There probably will be a larger Polish Liberation Army in the Allied Camp--many more Poles will be able to flee to Romania and then leave to France or England. France, too, may well fight on if it seems that the Soviets aren't in Germany's camp--they'll just have to do so from Algeria.

Even these plausible butterflies would still leave Germany well able to invade the Soviet Union in 1941.

Japan, meanwhile, probably still loses in its clashes with the Soviets in the Far East, although firepower, not morale, is the reason. The Soviet People hate the Japanese (think of the Russo-Japanese War) and even if badly purged there would be little chance of the Japanese beating the Soviets.

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The Soviet Union would then face Operation Barbarossa. It might be a couple of weeks earlier, it might even start on June 22nd as it did in OTL. Yezhov isn't delusional--the Soviet Union will not ignore Germany's opening attacks and will attempt to valiantly resist. Unfortunately, the Red Army is now in far worse shape than OTL, and Yezhov will find that his actions have left the Soviet Armed Forces with incredibly bad command and staff elements.

Does Yezhov get removed? If he does, it's in a hail of gunfire. As previously mentioned, he's got a purging clique in hand from Stalin and would probably start throwing more loyalists into the lineup. Removing Yezhov is an obvious aim of many--but it may well take German troops in Red Square before Yezhov gets killed.

In the chaos of a German Invasion, Yezhov is going to discover that conscription just as effective a means of disposal as the gulags are. Such units are unlikely to have much loyalty to the government, but are fighting for their homes. Unfortunately, Yezhov will have burnt through a lot more manpower a lot more quickly than Stalin did.

Germany sought to take the Ukraine, Moscow and Leningrad by the end of Barbarossa. Against a more poorly trained, more demoralized and more abused foe, the Germans probably secure their objectives.

Yezhov and the NKVD are probably wiped out in a desperate coup. The leaders of said coup are in no position to eject Germany from their territory, but like Chiang in China, they can throw so much resistance against the Germans that the Eastern Front turns into a gigantic guerrilla hell.
 
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