Stalin dies before he can purge anyone!

Interesting Question, first a few key dates:
1924: Lenin dies
1925: Frunze dies
1926: Trotzki, Sinojew, Kamenjew removed from Polibureau (PB), Leftists fall from power
1929: Bukahrin and other rights removed from power, NEP terminated, trotzki exiled, PB now dominated by Stalins crownies
1930: Kirov joins PB
1930-34: collectivisation
1932-33: Holodomor
1934: 17th party conference, Kirov murdered, Menschinski dies, Jagoda head of NKWD
1936: trial of the 16 (leftists), Jezovh head of NKWD
1937: Secret purge of the army (Tuchatschewski & others), NKWD troikas created
1937-38: Mass purges of intelectuals, experts, and conter-revolutionairies
1938: trial of the 21 (rightists, Jagoda)
late 1938: Beria takes over NKWD, terror reduced
1939-40: smaller, more selective purges
1939: 18th party conference
1941: Red army purged again

Based on this I think there are the following possibilities:

-Stalin dies before 1929: Bukahrin and the right take over (majority in PB and most of Stalins allies should support them, as they were to weak to rule on their own and at odds with the left) , saner economic policiy, no massive purges. SU in a much better economic shape, although the development of heavy industry should be slightly delayed (which might be critical in WWII).
There is slight chance of the left taking over (before 1926) or a coup but I don't consider this likely.

-Stalin dies between 1929-1934: The party is now firmly in the hand of the Stalinists. The big question is if the network of (often highly incompetent) old crownies and bureaucrats through whitch Stalin ruled could work together without him. Stalin had been a member of the PB right from the begining and in charge of the party apparatus since 1922. This gave him the influence, connections and expirience that made him so powerful, but also made him hard to replace.
Most likely an collective leadership or Kirov as figurehead leader while an behind the scenes powerstrugle begins (my money is on Molotow, but not sure).
Menshinski is weak and sick, so the GPU is not a major power player, but an army coup against feuding leaders is possible.
The SUs economic course is allready set but we should be spared the purges, so the SU does better in WWII.

-Stalin dies between 1934-36: basicly same as above, but Kirov is dead and Jagoda the highly amitious head of the NKWD.
The right leaders were still alive and temporariliy rehabilitated so they might make a moderate comback (based on their popularity and competence).

-Stalin dies between 1936-1938: the situation changes quickly during the purge, thanks to Stalin killing many of his supporters.
Early on a coup by Tuchačevskij is still possible. Don't know what economic policy he favoured, but he was moderatly pro western and would made a highly competent leader in WWII.
If we are right in the middle of the purges the NKWD leader would have no other chance to save his head than to go for it and seize power. The PB might try to stop him, but as they would lack (post mid 1937) the army support that Shukov ensured in 1953 im not sure if they could do it.
This scenario could end worse than OTL: The purges continue post 1938 or someone highly inept (Jagoda, Jezovh, Woroshilov) takes power. That would make the SU a walkover for the Germans.

-Stalin dies between 1939 - 1941: The situation is somewhat stable again. Either Berija takes over and makes a cruel but competent dictator or a collective leadership of the bureaucrats.
It's probably to late for an major change of policy. As the new leader(s) would lack Stalins prestige, firm control and the fear he inspired the War could turn out worse for the Soviets. On the other hand no army/airforce purge of 1941 would sure be benefical for the initial defence.
 
If Molotov came to power I have a few questions:

How much control would be be able to exercise over the Soviet State vs Stalin and how much support within the party would he have?

Would we see a ( likely vastly more limited ) Molotov purge?

Would Molotov still cut a deal similar to Stalin with the nazis to expand Russia's territory? Or would he have taken a less expansionist course than Stalin did?

Would Molotov stay with his old Stalinist line in most issues or would he moderate with his old boss gone?
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
How much control would be be able to exercise over the Soviet State vs Stalin and how much support within the party would he have?
Molotov won't exercise as much control over the Soviet State because he wasn't as politically astute or as sensitive as Stalin was. Molotov was the bureaucrat par excellence, which does not lend itself to attracting a highly devoted clique or terrifying people into submission.

Molotov would likely have some solid support in the party, especially amongst the hard-liners like Kaganovich and Voroshilov, so he shouldn't just be counted out. That being said, he's not going to be a dictator, he's going to be the head of a ruling troika probably made up of himself, Kaganovich, and a major military guy (probably Voroshilov, but likely Tukhachevsky if the latter asserts himself).
Would we see a ( likely vastly more limited ) Molotov purge?
Probably not. The Purges were entirely of Stalin's making. They did spin out of control at the bottom, but he was responsible for them.

Molotov went along with the Purges mostly because of his fervent devotion to Stalin. He had no problem with purging people, but Molotov wasn't the sort of person to initialize a purge since there was no precedent for one. Molotov was far more of a consensus builder than the arch-manipulative Stalin.
Would Molotov still cut a deal similar to Stalin with the nazis to expand Russia's territory? Or would he have taken a less expansionist course than Stalin did?
Probably not. Again, that was Stalin's idea. Molotov was very devoted to Marxist-Leninist ideology, whereas Stalin was almost unbelievably cynical and ruthlessly (often brutally) pragmatic.

But to Molotov, Stalin could do no wrong, so of course whatever he decides to do is right.

Without Stalin around, Molotov will probably keep up the popular front strategy and work his hardest to undermine and isolate Poland while at the same time staunchly opposing the Nazis in all things.
Would Molotov stay with his old Stalinist line in most issues or would he moderate with his old boss gone?
Could you be a little bit more clear on what you're asking? If by "Stalinist" you mean the economic system and the hyper-centralization, then yes.
 
Without Stalin around, Molotov will probably keep up the popular front strategy and work his hardest to undermine and isolate Poland while at the same time staunchly opposing the Nazis in all things.

What about the Winter war and Bessarabia? What I mean is how likely is it he attempts territorial expansion similar to Stalin?

Could you be a little bit more clear on what you're asking? If by "Stalinist" you mean the economic system and the hyper-centralization, then yes.
Yes, in general that is what I meant.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Finland probably won't be a target of outright military aggression. Not only was Finland one of the USSR's main trade partners, but the Soviets and the Finns had signed a non-aggression pact in 1934 and it likely would have kept since the idea of reconquering the former Tsarist provinces was largely Stalin's idea. Except for Poland, which pretty much every Soviet leader wanted to get rid of.

That being said, you may still see some Soviet-Finnish haggling over where the border is. The Finnish government was torn over a Soviet proposal in '39 but still offered their own plan on how to reshape the border. With cooler heads at the table, they may be able to peacably work out a readjustment.

Regarding Bessarabia, that's a ways down the road. The Soviets will take it if it's offered to them in a deal or something, but they're going to focus more on Poland. Once Poland's out of the way, then they might try mucking about in Bessarabia.

Soviets sponsoring left-wing agitation in Bessarabia, on the other hand, would not be at all out of the question.
 
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Here's an interesting thought, if Stalin kicks the bucket in the mid 30s and his clique take over:
How many people are saved from Stalin's murder? I know there is a big debate over how many people he did kill, but with collectivization underway and all the deportations, famines, and executions related to that out of the way for the most part that leaves 3 main things.

1. The great terror / repressions for s**ts n giggles.
2. Continued deportation of people to gulags.
3. Forced resettlement of whole ethnic groups.

On 1 that could mostly be avoided, on 2 I am really not so sure except for perhaps more organized systems in place without the floods of people from the terror, on 3 if assuming Barbarossa happens I could this happening but to a lesser extent than with Stalin.

So the 64 million ruble question is, how many don't die from the above three?

Not even assuming the ability to handwave away Barbarossa due to this, Soviet demographics might look very different long term.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Collectivization is still going to happen, so you'll have the same number of deaths there since it was organized and run by both Molotov and Kaganovich. The Gulags are still going to be around--slave labor is slave labor--but without the Terror they'll probably be less full.

I'd like to point out that Stalin didn't just shift ethnic groups around willy-nilly or just to be a dickbag; there was always a pragmatic reason for doing it. The Crimean Tatars were relocated, for example, because Stalin and the NKVD knew that the Crimean Tatars were going to be wiped out by their neighbors for collaborating with the Germans.

So yeah, we'll probably see ethnic relocations as per OTL.
 
Does anyone have a rough estimate number of how many deaths post Stalin would be butterflied away if he dropped dead in 36?
 
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OK I'm going to try to make an estimate:

- Stuff already happened:
Collectivization + related terrors and prior repression: 8,000,000

Stuff hasn't happened:
Post collectivization repression: 9,000,000
- Great Terror executions: 1,000,000
- Post Terror executions: 500,000
- Died during deportation: 1,700,000
- Died in Gulag: 5,000,000

- Foreigners: 1,000,000

My estimates of a Molotov led troika
- Great terror: 50,000 ( new regime needs limited terror to establish itself )
- Post terror: 50,000
- Deportation: 800,000 ( less intensive and more organized due to lesser floods of people moving east )
- Gulag: 3,000,000 ( Im guessing the system would slow down but not fully shut off )
- Foreigners: 900,000 ( mostly German PoW )

So I come up with a net of 4.2 million ( 4.1 million Soviets ) not killed, not quite as dramatic as I originally thought it might be. I might have even overestimated the number who would be saved from Gulag, but I'm not sure.
 
Without the Stalinist army purge Tukhachevsky rising in the leadership in the 40s - 50s is a strong possibility imo, if he does eventually get into the Politburo or even into the inner circle of power does anyone have an idea what kind of policies he would support? Given that his family were nobles would we perhaps see him mildly push for a more traditionalist Russian spin on Communism / more NEPish policies?
 
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