In 1935, a woman, the heiress of the Russian aristocratic family Orlova-Pavlova attempted to shoot Stalin, but she missed the target. Let's say her plan succeeds and Stalin is killed. What is the result?
Stalin assassinated in 1935
- Thread starter Shadow1080
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This is before the Trotsky loyalists were purged and Stalin's cult of personality was not solid yet and Trotsky is still alive so if he goes back before he gets the big ice pick and challenges Stalin's cronies for leadership he has a shot at winning a democratic (or violent) power struggle because the bulk of his followers are still around and he's the last of original big 3 who built the revolution so he might have more legitimacy in the eyes of the people if the Stalinists lost the power struggle and did not take it sitting down. In such a situation expect Mikhail Tukhachevsky (google him he's amazing and sometimes called by some on this forum the red Napoleon) to play a big part as he is credited as being a huge influence to the Soviet development of the deep battle doctrine and he had a skill set geared toward modern warfare and likely to side with Trotsky.
It's in the cards so to speak, all it takes if its democratic is for Trotsky to win the power struggle and the Stalinists resist or if it's not democratic and the Stalinists don't like take it sitting down. At this point, Stalinists are too big to be ignored but they are not so large they can just push Trotsky aside because he's the last of the big 3, if Stalin were here and Trotsky was coming back it would be different but with him out of the picture if the Stalinists try to hold on to power against Trotsky there is a subcomponent of the population who will view them as traitors to the revolution these people are likely more moderate Stalinists (remember Stalin's cult of personality was not rock solid yet and this is also pre-purge) and other branches of communist that might help Trotsky like Nikolai Bukharin founder of the Bukharinite movement and political thought at this time he is still alive he was purged when Stalin was eliminating political rivals with the purge in 1936 but he did not get purged until 1938 so he is still in play with no Stalin. he was backstabbed by Stalin a few years back in the later 1920's by removing him from the Politburo so has a president to dislike Stalinists. if it did come to a conflict they are more likely to back Trotsky because of recent history even with there rocky past.
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Trotsky's political standing in the USSR was already well dead by 1935. The idea that the Great Purges got rid of any of his loyalists is pure Stalinist propaganda.
Now the fact that Stalin's assassination is following so closely Kirov's probably means the purges kicks off even earlier. However, whether without Stalin's particular brand of paranoia stoking it on the purge reaches the size as it did in 1937-38 is an open question. Who takes over the USSR... well, Kamenev and Zinoviev have already been arrested and we can expect to see their show trial pushed forward by Stalin's death. Bukharin's still running free, but he was never much of a politician so the odds of him making a come back are rather poor. That means whoever takes over, it's liable to be one of Stalin's circle.
I know that's what most likely but if the buck stops there this thread kind of dies as there is little interesting substance to carry on this topic. sometimes for the sake of discussion the less likely subject can bring spice into subject and help to generate discussion.
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Stalin's yesmen and henchmen will be busy dealing with any, and all other threats before anyone can think about taking Stalin's place. (Such as Kamenev and Zinoviev show trial taking place even after his death.)
Trotsky was never popular among the Soviet leadership even back in the 20s. He does not have a chance in Ares to come back to the USSR and take power.
The most likely figures to take power with Stalin's assassination are Mikhail Tukhachevsky, Marshal of the Soviet Union, Chief of General Staff, and leading reformer of the Soviet Armed Forces.
Next is Genrikh Yagoda, the current head of the NKVD. And after him, Nikolai Yezhov.
Trotsky was never popular among the Soviet leadership even back in the 20s. He does not have a chance in Ares to come back to the USSR and take power.
The most likely figures to take power with Stalin's assassination are Mikhail Tukhachevsky, Marshal of the Soviet Union, Chief of General Staff, and leading reformer of the Soviet Armed Forces.
Next is Genrikh Yagoda, the current head of the NKVD. And after him, Nikolai Yezhov.
when Stalin was alive around this time I think Trotskyists were around 10-25% of the population give or take a few but with Stalin dead and Trotsky as the last of the big 3 I'm expecting him to get more of a following not enough to get him a majority but somewhere between 15-30% bolstering those numbers could be international volunteers because Trotsky amassed a following internationally since he left the USSR, not a huge one but enough to take note of lets say that is about a 1-3% boost in the event of the conflict going violent. during this same time I'm thinking Nikolai Bukharin right-wing opposition https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Right_Opposition and the Bukharinites had lost steam admittedly since Stalin turned on Bukharin in 1929 but with Stalin being assassinated in 1935 I would not think the right-wing opposition is dead yet I estimate that between his groups he may have had 3-7% so with what we have here so far 19-40% so worst case scenario he obviously losses but he might have a shot with a civil war if he's closer to the best case around 40% with Mikhail Nikolayevich Tukhachevsky (The Red Napoleon) obviously they still have a numerical disadvantage and unlikely but its not asb. Do you disagree with any of these numbers? (I would not hold it against you because most of this is estimations so if you have any numbers you think need to be reevaluated tell me.)
RousseauX
Donor
Another period of collective leadership among Stalin's cronies, at this point in time they would be Molotov, Kagnovich, and Voroshilov, without the purges Yezhkov is unlikely to get the same level as power as he did otl. They might be joined by some familiar faces like Zhandov, Malenkov, Khrushchev and Bulganin as the post-Stalin magnates tries to build up a new ruling clique.
It's unlikely for any of the anti-Stalin left opposition (Trotsky, Zinoviev, Kamenev etc) from the 1920s to come back to power at this point simply because they got kicked out of politics and aren't talented enough to come back. The right oppositionists, Bukharin, Rykov etc are still alive and in the party but also unlikely to return because Stalin's cronies hated them even more than Stalin did.
I think it's unlikely for the Great Purge to still occur, at least not on nearly the same scale as Stalin's purges otl. There would be a thorough purging of the remaining patronage networks of the right-opposition but not general purge of society, army and political institutions that Stalin implemented otl.
What gets more interesting is give it 4 years or so: does the new leadership make the same non-aggression pact with Hitler? Do they intervene in Spain? Take away either of those decisions and early WWII might look unrecognizable.
Unlikely: in the Soviet Union the Party always controlled the Army, Tukhachevsky was outranked by Voroshilov as defense minister anyway
The Secret police has never being able to independently mount a challenge to party rule in the USSR: all three of Stalin's secret police chiefs: Yagoda, Yezhov and Beria were removed without problems
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RousseauX
Donor
The average person in any society, Soviet Union or otherwise, are apolitical. In a Communist system they don't matter in politics at all.