Stalin and Ukraine

Should I make a timeline in which the Russian Civil War breakaway states stay free?


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What if the Bolsheviks proved unable to subdue the secessionist states during the Russian Civil War, and they all remained independent? (And if not all of them, how about just the Ukrainian People's Republic?):D
 

MSZ

Banned
All of them, meaning the SSR's, or all of them meaning ALL of them, including such weird entities like Chita Republic or Idel-Ural surviving? If the latter, Russia is almost completely balkanized, and a future war would be imminent. If the former - it still would be balkanization, but some of those states might be viable and survive (The Caucassian ones), other would most likely not (Central Asian ones) and be annexed by Russia after some time (like Tanu Tuva - nobody would care about them).

Ukrainian People's Republic would find itself at war with the Bolsheviks and Poles quite quickly, and if it was to survive, it would most likely be thanks to Polish guns. A large Ukraine, from Zbruc to Don would find itself in a difficult position - either allied with Poland to keep the Communists out, or allied with the Communists (or Germans?) to get East Galicia. Wouldn't butterfly away the Nazis, but Independent Ukraine in the 1920's would lead to some parts of Mein Kampf being written differently (Ukrainian blacksoils no longer would have to wrestled from judeocommies).
 

Tsao

Banned
Would Hitler try to get an independent Ukraine on his side? And what effect would that have on Barbarossa or the invasion of Poland (out of order, I know)?

Given that the POD is during the RCW, the likelihood of any of these events happening exactly as they did OTL (Barbarossa, Invasion of Poland, etc.) is very little. Also, without the Ukraine would Russia even be able to expand much westwards?
 
This is vanishingly unlikely. Any Russian government of the time worth its salt will reconquer Ukraine, and the limited popular appeal of Ukrainian nationalism in a new state would make it rather easy pickings for said state. Poland might also try to conquer Ukraine ITTL, too. Hmm....Polish-Soviet partition of Ukraine?
 

Tsao

Banned
This is vanishingly unlikely. Any Russian government of the time worth its salt will reconquer Ukraine, and the limited popular appeal of Ukrainian nationalism in a new state would make it rather easy pickings for said state. Poland might also try to conquer Ukraine ITTL, too. Hmm....Polish-Soviet partition of Ukraine?

There's a TL that I would definitely read.
 

MSZ

Banned
Would Hitler try to get an independent Ukraine on his side? And what effect would that have on Barbarossa or the invasion of Poland (out of order, I know)?

Difficult to say. The Nazi philosophy OTL prevented a Germano-Ukrainian alliance to go any further than tactical alliances (SS Galizien, UIA), as the Germans were suppose to CONQUER Ukraine and enslave the Ukrainians, not ally with them. He surely would seek to get it, though whether he would lean toward a 2 step scenario: Invade Poland with Ukraine first, then betray Ukarine and invade it, or a 1 step scenario: Attack the Polish-Ukrainian alliance and annex both; depends on whathever he comes up with during his imprisonment.

I suppose that a independent Ukraine wouldn't change much: Hitler wasn't a sane persona, he denied the possibility of peace with the Soviet Union even if he was to get a Brest-Litovsk deal. He would be compelled to invade the SU eventually, no matter what treaties he makes earlier, and he would still lose that war. So even if he partitioned Poland with Ukraine, and later Ukraine with Russia, he would be at war with the Big Three in the end. The attitudes of Ukrainians toward the Germans might be different and vice-versa, the occupation and collaboration might as well. But nothing to grant the Nazi's victory.
 
And if the Poles "accidentally" invade Slovakia and get them all worked up as well...

But the fact is, even IOTL the Bolsheviks came close to losing. ITTL they do defeat the White Russians, but suffer extremely heavy losses doing so. This gives Ukraine a respite, allowing it to fortify its border with Russia. The Russian advance is channelled through a couple of narrow gaps, allowing a somewhat smaller Ukrainian force to hold them back. The conflict bogs down in intense fighting, but this results only in a futile bloodbath, and Russia soon is forced to ask for peace to prevent the exhaustion of the adult male population in a futile war.
 

MSZ

Banned
And if the Poles "accidentally" invade Slovakia and get them all worked up as well...

THAT would require some serious butterflies, probably with Poland continuing the war with Czechoslovakia in 1919. VERY unlikely.

But the fact is, even IOTL the Bolsheviks came close to losing. ITTL they do defeat the White Russians, but suffer extremely heavy losses doing so. This gives Ukraine a respite, allowing it to fortify its border with Russia. The Russian advance is channelled through a couple of narrow gaps, allowing a somewhat smaller Ukrainian force to hold them back. The conflict bogs down in intense fighting, but this results only in a futile bloodbath, and Russia soon is forced to ask for peace to prevent the exhaustion of the adult male population in a futile war.

Uh, geography doesn't allow that, Ukraine is plains, plains, plains... No serious natural borders except for rivers there. Not to mention the Ukrainians hardly had an army. I came up with this scenario some time ago:

The best way to achieve Ukrainian independence would be to butterfly away the bolshevik offensive against Poland in June 1920, allownnig Petlura to get more time preparing and recruting his army, and establishing an actual ukrainian civilian administration on the lands between Poland and Dnepr. If, say, the whites last longer in Siberia, so that Tuchachevsky can't invade in 1920, then Petlura has over half a year to prepare to liberate the rest of Ukraine - get international recognition, foreign support, etc.
 
Uh, geography doesn't allow that, Ukraine is plains, plains, plains... No serious natural borders except for rivers there. Not to mention the Ukrainians hardly had an army. I came up with this scenario some time ago:

ITTL they have TIME. Time to fortify their borders, time to build up an army. And what I mean by "narrow gaps" is narrow gaps in the FORTIFICATIONS. Soviets trying to go right through the defenses would get smashed to bits. And you have to remember that ITTL the Red Army very nearly got smashed to bits fighting the Whites. This buys their enemies, such as Ukraine, time.;)
 
Just the secessionist states that add something intriguing to the timeline.
At minimum, the Ukraine (with or without Western Ukraine -- your call); Finland and the Baltic states as in OTL; and probably the Caucasus republics. I'm partial to Bukhara and North Ingermanland, but they're not necessary.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Isn't Ukraine to Poland and Russia what Poland is to Russia and Germany, something that never really can be allowed to exist.:rolleyes:

However a TL where the Caucasus States remain independent would be interesting. Sure Ukraine is nice, but the fact that Poland and the USSR can and will at some point gangbang it is always unsettling.
 
The border would be too long, and the forces too small, for effective fortification. It's not exactly the isthmus of Perekop, which the Bolsheviks still outflanked.

I think an independent Ukraine is plausible, in part, because the Stavka did not want to get involved in a war in Ukraine while they were busy with the war in the Don. Historically, Piatakov and Antonov-Ovseenko mutinied, invaded Ukraine, and presented Lenin and Trotskiy with a fait accompli. If something prevents that mutiny, these units could have supported the campaign towards the Donbas and Rostov.

That buys time, perhaps the end of 1918 and the first half of 1919.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Poland actually aimed at establishing allied/puppet Ukraine, not conquering it.
Well, that was because they needed support from the Ukrainians at the time. A independent Ukraine would always be a threat to Poland, due to Poland's annexation of Ukrainian speaking territories.
 
People vasty overstate the desire of OTL population of Ukraine to break thier union with Russia.

At the same time they'll support other half-assed unions/empires without thinking twice, funny that.:rolleyes:
 
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