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This timeline diverges with an indecisive end to the Battle of Waterloo (which was, after all, the 'nearest run thing you ever saw') and ends with Napoleon remaining the ruler of France, and Europe even more fractious and divided than OTL in 1815. Most borders are assumed to end up roughly as agreed at the Treaty of Vienna (see map) but given the unstable situation that results from TTL that may change.

I'd like to hear you thoughts/criticisms of my timeline, and where you think things might go from here.

Timeline

18th June. With slightly drier weather and Napoleon waking up in a more decisive mood, his attack at Waterloo begins at dawn, allowing him to fight the British army before the Prussians arrive in full force. He is able to severely maul the British forces but still sustains serious losses. The Prussians arrive in time to secure the allied defensive line as the forces disengage. This leads to an indecisive end to the battle, both sides claim victory but the allies and Napoleon are both forced to quit the field and recoup. Meanwhile, Grouchy defeats the Prussian reserve at Wavre before being recalled to consolidate his forces with Napoleon.

19th June. Unable to continue with his strategy of defeating the allied armies piecemeal, Napoleon falls back towards the fortifications around Paris.

20th June. Blucher, keen to land the finishing blow, force marches after Napoleon. Wellington is more cautious, he takes time to rest his battle-worn army and marches two days behind Blucher (just as in OTL).

21st June. Davout is commanded by Napoleon to crush the remaining royalist support in Paris, a bloody political purge occurs on the pretence of enforcing revolutionary ideals in the capital and preventing backsliding by re-instated royalists. The unpopular laws drafted by Louis XVIII are officially struck off. Many politicians, including Talleyrand, flee and seek refuge in the royalist areas of France. Napoleon is set to carry on as Ruler in Paris.

22nd June. Napoleon starts the massing of a new army (France having 170,000 men (mostly trained) in depots). He orders Davout to make an aggressive march from Paris to attack Blucher's army.

23rd - 25th of June. Davout successfully surprises, attacks and destroys much of Blucher's army whilst it is stung out on the march. Wellington, on hearing this, starts to retreat towards Brussels.

26th - 27th of June. Davout pursues Wellington, forcing the British General to leave behind many Guns and supply wagons. The French armies of the Rhine frontier and the Italian frontier successfully bring Austrian forces to a stalemate among the mountain passes of the Alps. Schwarzenberg decides to slow the Austrian offensive in order to minimize losses.

The Russian forces are still making their way through Germany. The Spanish and Portuguese are yet to muster their forces. Britain and Prussia are on the retreat. The Austrian commanders begin to lose faith in the quick victory promised by the coalition and start to fear a drawn out conflict, harried by the French every step of the way.

30th of June. Davout successfully catches up to Wellington’s rear-guard and drives him further into the Netherlands, away from the French border. Wellington eventually reaches the Dutch coast where he is able to entrench, supplied by the royal navy. Davout turns back towards France.

1 - 7th of July. News of the defeat of the Allied armies in France circulates around Europe.

Consequences

The Austrians consider their position. At the conference of Vienna Prussia and Russia had allied and declared expansionist intentions, this made others in Europe nervous and they were only kept in check by Metternich who leveraged the influence of Austria, Britain and the incoming Royalist French government against them. Prussia has now lost a good part of the army, the Royalist French have no standing army, and a huge Russian force is on the doorstep of a newly unstable Europe. The delicate balance of power has been upset and Europe may once again need to fear an expansionist Russia. In addition, Austria is the birthplace of Napoleon’s wife and is currently in possession of both his wife and his half-Austrian heir. This gives them a great deal of influence over Napoleon that would be worthless in the event of his defeat. For these reasons Austria is receptive to Napoleon’s overtures of peace sent out after his victory in the Waterloo campaign, they have no desire for a protracted grinding war over the Alps and little faith in Russia. Austria therefore declares neutrality towards Napoleonic France, withdraws their forces from French territory, and effectively dismantles the Holy Alliance.

The Prussians, notorious for their hatred of Napoleon, refuse to end the war. However, with their military depleted they need time to recuperate, and without the support of Austria they simply don’t have the forces necessary to conquer France.

The Russians use the forces they have in the field to completely secure the newly formed Kingdom of Poland, and reabsorb it fully into Russia. With such a large force amassed in Europe and the other powers weakened they are in a very strong position. Russian forces amassing in Poland give Prussia and Austria cause for concern and thoughts turn to the rivalries and sly dealings at Vienna. It becomes clear that whilst most of the borders agreed on at the summit of Vienna will be established, the European powers no longer feel confident that peace between the coalition members will hold.

The royalist areas of France (Normandy, Brittany and Vendee on the north coast, and Provence in the south east) go into insurrection, protesting Napoleon’s violent cementing of power. Led by the nobility and those Royalist inclined politicians who managed to escape the purge in Paris, Royalist militias seize key towns and declare themselves part of Bourbon France, independent of Napoleon’s rule. Napoleon can’t afford to leave his fortifications around Paris whilst he is still unsure of his military position, and this gives the Bourbon forces precious time to shore up their defences. The Bourbon militias in Provence disrupt the Italian front but are unable to overwhelm the French forces amassed there, they are summarily defeated after Austrians retreat behind the mountains and free up the French forces. However, Napoleon’s Army of the Vendee is bogged down by fresh fighting and is unable to secure the entire Royalist coast.

In Britain Wellington’s failure to finish off Napoleon instigates political turmoil and much of Wellington’s home support fails. He is ordered to maintain his force in the Netherlands to prevent them from falling to Napoleonic rule. Britain will not accept peace with Napoleon, but parliament refuses to finance yet another expensive aggressive campaign (safe in the knowledge that Napoleon lacks the strength to re-establish anything resembling the continental system). Instead of direct military action the British send some financial support to royalist groups in the Bourbon territories in order to undermine Napoleon’s rule. This support is vital in the creation of a Bourbon army, allowing the royalists to hire mercenaries to reinforce their newly formed militias. With time to organise and equip a more substantial force they are able to resist Napoleonic forces in the Royalist North-West.

The Swiss do not officially abandon their state of war with France; however they entrench their forces in defensive positions and make it clear that they will focus on defending their own territory.

In Spain the absolutist monarchy of Ferdinand VII is on shaky ground. Initially buoyed by international support, with the situation in Europe destabilising and the treaty of Vienna losing force the Spanish crown can’t count on its allies abroad. The American colonies refuse to accept the King’s authority, and even within Spain’s borders liberal factions openly demand the reinstatement of the constitution. Even the military has liberal leanings. Ferdinand cannot afford to send his troops over the Pyrenees into an uncertain war. Meanwhile an ill-advised attempt to crack down hard on these dissenters may bring Spain to the brink of revolution.

The Portuguese are not able to muster forces in time to take part in the fighting. The British commanders in their army are reduced to an advisory capacity as an indignant Westminster loses its stomach for more years of expensive campaigning. However, the British encourage their Portuguese allies to join them in supplying the Bourbon French territories as a more indirect way of challenging Napoleon’s claim to France.


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