Spiralling out of Control: 1992 - RNC

[Jack Hawksmoor]

The story in brief so far..

Spoiler

In early October 1992, an innocuous thing occurs in Yugoslavia. Croatia is hours away from declaring independence. One of the Croatian politicians decides to speak up where OTL he didn't. This causes an air attack to succeed, decapitating Croatian and federal leadership, starting a chain of events which ends up with a mentally unstable Yugoslav general ordering a nuclear terrorist attack in Slovenia, causing a massive international outcry and NATO air strikes.

In January of 1992, Boris Yeltsin slips into a coma after falling down mid-flight to New York. Vice-president Rutskoi becomes the acting president. Deeply suspicious of conciliatory tone towards the West starts replacing Yeltsinites and encourages Russian irredentism in Ukraine, Moldova and elsewhere. Yeltsin upon recovery in May immediately reverses course back and starts blatantly ignoring the Supreme Soviet, certain he cannot trust it. The Supreme Soviet under Khasbulatov wants to make the presidency a ceremonial function and freeze any substantial reforms. Yeltsin dies in late June of 1992, leaving the country paralyzed between an ineffectual president and ambitious leader of the Supreme Soviet. The country is wrecked by anti-American sentiment, sputniks, (bureaucrats appointed to the same place by political opponents) and a myriad of other problems with no authority to assert itself.

In America, Bill Clinton manages to trigger an unending chain of scandals from February onwards and his campaign collapses after all other opponents have withdrawn except Jerry Brown and Paul Tsongas. By the time of the Democratic convention, neither candidate has enough delegates to win in the first round, and most primaries have shown an alarmingly large lack of enthusiasm for all candidates. Tsongas, fearing the establishment will stab him in the back in a case of an open convention achieves a last minute deal with Brown, forming an uneasy ticket.

George Bush is forced to defend claims he is trying to make the country interventionist after liberal reporters connect the Iraq and Yugoslavia. This is now conflated with support with NAFTA and has to deal with a conservative base and sluggish economy. Furthermore, he cannot risk withdrawing Baker to run his campaign due to the chaotic situation in Russia and believes the Democratic ticket is a Republican dream come through.

Ross Perot joins the race in April and nearly withdraws in July after shocking the nation by claiming Bush ordered the assassination of Yeltsin based on a comment Yeltsin made about Vietnam P.O.W.s, Perot's pet issue. Perot decides to stay in the race, encouraged by nightmare Democrat primaries and stabilized by the medicine he is taking. His campaign manages to convince Lowell Weicker to join the ticket under strange pretenses. Perot is initially sold on Weicker based solely on Weicker's rivalry with Bush, but the ticket soon devolves into an uneasy one over mutual distrust and Perot's paranoia.

As the Democratic convention in August 1992 approaches, the elections have backfired into a race with most of the candidates being outsiders, Russia is gripped by a general strike and government paralysis, Green parties around Europe have received a boost, Greece is toying with leaving NATO...

As the end of year approaches it is more likely that this trends will intersect radically altering the course of history.

Open in new tab for background music

Axis, the Axis
The Axis of World lies Broken

Stolen, Stolen Future
Our Future has been Stolen.

Control, Out of Control
We are spiralling out of Control

Fire, Set on Fire
The World is Set on Fire

Our freedom is consuming itself
What we've become
Is contrary to what we want
Out of Control

The World is Spiralling out of Control,
And the Axis lies Broken.

Lead single, Spiralling Out,
unpublished album Accelerating into the Abyss by Muse[1]​

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Prelude 01: What Comes After
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'The Cold War may have been as close to utopia as we are ever likely to get.'

--Robert D. Kaplan [2]​

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What I have done, I cannot live with. If there will be written records know that the we have at first tried to do the right thing, and at the end we strove to pick the lesser of two evils.

This is not so much a confession but a statement to history. The fact it is a suicide note should not diminish its value nor make it sacrosanct.

As I ready the bullet into its chamber, let it be known that the road to hell is not paved with good intentions, but with selfish ones. And we only followed the road we started out on to its disastrous conclusion.
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Arnaldo Pomodoro, Sphere within a Sphere, 1996, United Nations, New York City

Should United Nations be Disbanded?

How many states are there in the world? According to CIA World Factbook there are over 220 states, yet only 186 or 194 (depending on how you count various frozen statuses or successor governments) are UN members or have some measure of wider international recognition.

Recent events have shown that by the end of the year, more than 40 nations may leave the organization and more will surely follow. There is no doubt that revelations about the absolutely disgraceful way of handling crises in Kongo and Balochistan was the tipping point.

Since the Security council is effectively paralysed with the question of disputed permanent seats and United States occupied with its own issues, UN has been reduced to empty quarreling in the General Assembly which has recently resorted to physical altercations. At the same time U.N. has been unable to prevent proliferation and the use of weapons of mass destruction as well as several past and ongoing genocidal conflicts.

By far, the most successful U.N. actions were those in Korea in 1950. and in Kuwait in 1991. and both were led by more confident USA. Without USA to wield its force, United Nations are not only powerless but counterproductive to any peacekeeping effort.
--New York Times, op. ed., [date redacted]

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National Bureau of Economic Research to declare Second Great Depression?
--Times Square news ticker, [date redacted]

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American comedian Wili Ferrell on Saturday Night Live, NBC

'Of course we are ruling the world! Why do you think every map of the world is rendered obsolete after six months?'

'Expiration date?'

'No you fool. You see, every time the chart sales go down we create another new country, sometimes two or three at a time.'

[Wil Ferell brings out the Spin the Wheel chart]

[starts to sing] 'What country will be next? Who will fight for freedom? Who will just declare it?

'Will it be Quebec, again? Will it be Katanga, Ireland or Texas? Only the wheel knows.'

[everybody joins in except Phil Hartman]

'A civil war, a coup d'etat or a nuclear attack? / There will be more maps, borders and flags.'


--transcript of the controversial Saturday Night Live skit, [date redacted]

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Martial law declared in Britain; Spain, Germany close borders; President to address the nation tonight
--Times Square news ticker, [date redacted]
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'The future of the Third World may finally be our own.'

--Robert D. Kaplan [3]​

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In 1914. two bullets fired from a gun in Balkans started the chain of events that would ruin the century long Concert of Europe.

In 1991 the two bullets would be replaced by two MK-82 bombs.

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[0.1.1] Basically an ATL (and earlier) version of what OTL became Take a bow.
[0.1.2] Actual quote, The Coming Anarchy: Shattering the Dreams of the Post Cold War, 2001, p. 169
[0.1.3] Also an actual quote, “Was Democracy Just a Moment“, The Atlantic, 1997, p. 169

 

[Gorrister]

The Texas part scares me a bit, America is invaded possibly?

 

[Orville_third]

I'm enjoying this so far...

 

[kspence92]

Promising. Hope for more soon.

 

[Divergent54]

Is this an ALT TL-191 TL? I see texas as independent so...

 

[Jack Hawksmoor]

Of all the things mentioned you're focusing on Texas being mentioned in Saturday Night Live skit?

 

[Jack Hawksmoor]

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Prelude 02: Decade in Review
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Codominium flag [1]

Nixon's Global Order Lost

Our party praises one our icon, but shies away from another. Where Ronald Reagan inspired with his vision and determination, Richard Nixon lead with strategy and pragmatism. He was a true visionary and history has proven him right.

I was impressed with him from an early age. In 1960 he outperformed Kennedy's fortunate son and despite that lost the election. The foolish Kennedy allowed Cuba to become communist and nearly allowed it to be filled with Soviet missiles. Nixon on the other hand was more experienced and more determined. He fought himself from a modest upbringing towards the presidency, despite the odds being against him. He knew how to pick fight and how to win them. He was a tireless warrior against domestic traitors. He could work with out enemies and play them against each other. His republican successors, while good men in their own right, were to afraid of acting like him given that the Democrats have painted him the Adversary-in-Chief.

Despite the ignominious end, his tenure as president should have been the framework of a lasting word order, one based on dividing the world into spheres of interest and policed by great powers. Despite being great Republican presidents, both Reagan and Bush were misguided by their advisors into seeking to bring an end to the Soviet Union instead of working with it. Even if you don't like your neighbour you don't pour oil to his burning house but help him with water.

[...]

Where Nixon worked with hard core communists in Russia and China, our Fool-in-Chief has allowed both Russia and China to once again become dangerous to our interests and muddled his way from one crisis to another. He is a stooge that got elected only due to circumstances outside of his control and controlled by the party elites distant from the true core of the American people.

[...]

America was always supposed to be the shining city upon the hill for the world. We are supposed to lead by example and our success, not by trying to police the planet. We are now a jaded people, having tried to fix the world but lacking the will to resolve the conflicts decisively.

[...]

Had Nixon remained our president and had his vision continued into the next presidency we could have avoided humiliations in Vietnam and Iran; Afghanistan and Iraq would have been avoided; Soviet Union would have been our friend in piece, accepting its secondary place in the face of American superiority. Realpolitik would have been accepted instead of avoided; and instead of blundering American World Police we would have had a stable World Codominium. [2] America would have had permanent lunar bases and orbital colonies while the rest of the world and our younger great power brothers would look up to us.

--excerpt from A Vision Lost by Newt Gingrich, 1996

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"God has made a great miracle. His might destroys heathens and heretics alike. Infidels drown in his righteous fury while. The House of Islam shall persist."
--Darul Islam Indunisiyya statement, December 2004
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Representative Ron Paul

'Liberty prospers alone'

The current state of the world fully reinforces necessity for a non-interventionist policy for the U.S. This nation is on the road to moral and economic bankruptcy and constant wars are feeding our own bureaucratic weight.

The collapse of the United Nations was inevitable, as is the collapse of many other nation states that have suffocated under their cracking oppressive governments.

Instead of wasting our money we should let them experience liberty and change, find their own paths. Peoples of the world will no longer have to survive at a subsistence level.

[...]

I say to you, no more wars, no more alliances. USA should stand and prosper alone. What grips the world is not chaos but change. Not disorder but yearning for a greater freedom. And we should not use that as an excuse for constantly expanding our own military-industrial complex.

[...]

Even without declarations of war we've seen expansion of our military alliances and entanglements, deploying special forces and special advisers all over the world. Why have our special forces grown tenfold in number? There is even talk from both parties about reinstituting the draft! I quote, "It might lower the unemployment."

In my office I have a favorite quote from a Republican Senator back when this issue was being debated in 1940 in the lead up to World War II. This quote comes from Senator Robert Taft who strongly opposed the draft for the correct reasons, because he defended his position on a personal liberty argument. He says:

“A compulsory draft is far more typical of totalitarian nations than of democratic nations. The theory behind it leads directly to totalitarianism. it is absolutely opposed to the principles of individual liberty which have always been considered a part of American democracy.”​

But even a long time before this, Daniel Webster got on the Senate floor and argued the case against the draft under much more dire circumstances, because at that time literally, Washington DC was being bombed and burned by the British, yet Daniel Webster got on the floor and defended the position that you sacrifice liberty by the use of the draft.

Politicians are willing to put us into involuntary servitude to fight overseas in undeclared wars to preserve liberty. They, and we as a nation are sadly mistaken.

[...]

Our national debt in 2000 exceeded 8 trillion dollars[3] and will grow even more in the coming years. A big reckoning is coming, maybe in a year, maybe five, but out currency and our economy will collapse.

We should distrust the government. It will always make mistakes, it will always lie, it will always restrict freedom. Be it foreign policy or domestic. They take away the WorldWeb, they take away your guns, they take away money and they take away the lives of you and your family. All in the name of liberty.

Well now more than ever, our cause, the true cause of liberty must strong. No more wars, no more entanglements, no more regulation.

--speech by Ron Paul, 2000

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'Airlaner explodes over Paris, 220 dead.'
--CNN breaking news, 12/26/1994

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New United Nations [4]


America should lead a New United Nations

There is a growing movement in America to abandon the defunct United Nations, now seen as a bastion of ineffective bureaucracy or even worse, in the minds of Patriot Front and other dangerous terrorists as a dangerous attempt at a world government. Conservative politicians and militias alike are uniting in their calls to remove the USA from United Nations and remove United Nations from New York.

Many forget that United Nations were being born in the death throes of World War Two. Right then and there was overwhelming consensus that O.U.N. should be headquartered in the United Nations. Europe lied in ruins, and many politicians did not want to place it in Geneva where the ill-fated League of Nations was. When a vote on the location of the headquarters was taken in London only the United Kingdom, France, the Netherlands and Canada voted for a European headquarters. Countries from Yugoslavia to China, from Soviet Union to Chile voted for the new organization to be placed in the United States.

Stalin enthusiastically backed the plan, hoping to retain the American interest in world politics since they readily acknowledged Soviet Union as a world power. FDR and Truman also supported this plan, fearing that USA once again does not slip into dangerous isolationism like it happened after the Great War. Multiple cities announced their bids to become „capitals of the world.“ San Francisco, Detroit, Philadelphia, even Black Hills in South Dakota. This is unimaginable today with almost regular populist cries to „Keep America safe from the UN.“

And one can hardly blame them. What America needs is not to work alone, but to establish a New United Nations, compromised of only the world's most free countries and bound with PATO,[5] serving as its security and policing framework. Only nations that have open, fair elections, independent institutions, peaceful transfers of power and political stability would be eligible for it. Member nation would safeguard their sovereignty and sanction military interventions in Unstable World with the express purpose of standing as a bulwark against global political chaos.

Evidence shows that major successes of United Nation agencies were almost always led by democratic countries. WHO, which curtailed the Taiwanese flue is mostly financed by the US, Japan, UK, France and Germany. UNHCR is effectively an European run organization now, having been forced to deal with the huge influx of refugees from the Balkans, the Middle East and the Subcontinent. Instead of trying to spread liberal democracy around the world, the US should bind the already existing democracies in a closer community.

--The Atlantic, Fareed Zakaria & Paul Berman, 1999

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'We need WorldWeb control, not gun control.'
--NRA statement regarding Patriot Front, 1996

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Fidel Castro, leader of Cuba

'Sovereignty League' speech

This are hard times we are living in. The great bastion of freedom for small nations is collapsing. The powerful nations are turning increasingly inward. The are calling us the Unstable World. No longer we are the Third, but Unstable world.

Leaders of richest and mightiest nations possessing thousands of nuclear weapons – enough to obliterate the world and kill everyone several times over – attack weaker countries on a regular basis. To them we are not equal, we are the dark and dangerous corners of the world. Once again they seek to colonize and divide us.

We do not have nuclear or other terrifying conventional weapons at out disposal. We do not have any say in the decisions of the international financial institutions. The best of our talents flee for oases in the mightiest of countries. We are victims to the insatiable consumerism of the developed countries; to the opportunistic proxy warfare of the militaristic governments; to careless destruction of the nature by the greed of the capitalists and former communists.

The order imposed after the last global carnage in 1940s, the world was promised peace and equality, assistance of the highly developed to the less developed. It was a lie. An unsustainable and unbearable world order has been imposed on us, the small, the weak, the poor.

Both Soviet and American leaders proclaimed in 1991 that the Cold war order is over and the threat of world war averted. It had also been a lie, proven to be wrong within a year. United States used the opportunity to carve up Yugoslavia, one of our oldest allies in the Non-Aligned Movement and split Soviet Union, the great socialist brother of the impoverished. The imperialist planned it, organized it, paid it, suppllied everyone with weapons. They could not tolerate socialist and democratic states of the poor and for the poor. So they turned it over to the fascist spectre that now covers most of Eurasia.

They did not want anyone to fight for us, the overwhelming majority. Authority is being wrenched away from the United Nations, its established procedures are being obstructed and the organisation itself destroyed. [6]

The demand of us to pay a 2,8 trillion dollar debt that cannot be paid while over a trillion dollars are spent in ever more deadly weapons. How many has been given for the survivors of the devastated countries in Africa, America and Asia?

The world is being driven into a dead end. Only we can save ourselves, and the humanity itself. We must for once start to lead. There are millions of intellectual and manual workers in the developed world conscious of the catastrophe that has befallen the world.

[...]

We need to build a new world organization, that will guarantee full independence and fair treatment for every one of us; there will be no great powers with veto rights; everyone small and big, poor and rich will be equal. We will share, we will cooperate, we will safeguard.

--famous speech by Fidel Castro, Non-Aligned Movement Summit of 2001

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[0.2.1] Flag used in Amerika (1987) miniseries
[0.2.2] Newt Gingrich was later accused that the borrowed the concept of CoDominium from his friend, science fiction author Jerry Pournelle - he admitted being "inspired." Pournelle even wrote a preface to a book by Newt Gingrich.
[0.2.3] Compare to OTL figure.
[0.2.4] Logo of the short-lived Alliance of Democrats
[0.2.5] PATO stands for Pacific-Atlantic Treaty Organization.
[0.2.6] Actual OTL quote from Castro's speech in Kuala Lumpur, 3/3/2003 (Non-Aligned Summit). Much of the lines here have been borrowed from that speech.

 

[Jape]

So many hints of what is to come, I'm quite excited.

 

[Unknown]

I think I know...

I'm trying to guess, based on the three presidents.

I think one of them is Bush, and the other Gorbachev.

And the third is...Saddam Hussein.

 

[Jack Hawksmoor]

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Prelude 03: Only Nineties Kids Will Get This

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The short lived Mel Gibson Bond

A New Bond for a new Era

Past Never Dies (1995) is the seventeenth movie in the James Bond series and the most controversial in the franchise. It is the only one to star Mel Gibson as the fictional MI6 agent James Bond and also the only one to pit him against a previous Bond (Sean Connery). The movie is disliked by fans of Fleming as this is the first film in the series not to take elements from his novels and the first to explicitly state that James Bond is a codename for multiple agents.

The seventeenth movie in the franchise began development in 1990 as the final movie for Timothy Dalton (who has been contracted for three films). Although the script was ready the movie entered development hell as producer Albert R. Broccoli parted company with noted Bond screenwriter Richard Maibaum and previous director John Glen. Added to that were legal problems between Danjaq, owners of the Bond film rights and Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer, parent company of the series distributor United Artists.

As MGM was bought in 1990 by French-Italian broadcasting group Pathe, plans to sell off the distribution rights provoked a lawsuit from Danjaq which maintained that this would violate licensing agreements made in 1962. Lawsuit was eventually settled in 1992, but Dalton's contract expired.
Movies were back in the works by 1993, bolstered by the sudden shift in Russian political climate. Previous claims that Bond is a relic of the Cold War were proven not to be true overnight.

Producer Albert R. Broccoli (who was responsible for most Bond Movies) was faced with health problems so his daughter Barbara and a team of producers took upon themselves to find a suitable screenplay and lead actor. Several initial screenplays were rejected.

Timothy Dalton declined to reprise the role. Producers wanted to return to Irish actor Pierce Brosnan who was originally intended to succeed Roger Moore in 1986 but was prevented in doing so due to his contract to star in the Remington Steele television series. Negotiations failed due to executive meddling which wanted to try out several new actors. Eventually, meddling brought Mel Gibson to the project.

Mel Gibson agreed to do the movie if MGM provided funding for his planned movie about William Wallace. Some believed Mel Gibson agreed to become Bond as a slight to Warner Brothers which tried to sign him for another Lethal Weapon sequel. Gibson was previously offered the role in 1987 but Albert R. Broccoli vetoed him as not British enough. The team of producers which succeeded him wanted to modernize the role, even considering casting a black man or a female as the agent.

Roger Spottiswoode, who was previously offered to direct a Timothy Dalton Bond movie, became the director. Movie had no less than five screenwriters due to many rewrites owing to producers wanting to have Bond dealing with Russia again but modernising some of the concepts. It ended up having Judi Dench as the new M and later establishing that 001-009 codenames and agent names are legacy titles for top agents, a move that caused a furor among some fans.

In what has later been established as the most brilliant decision in the franchise, Sean Connery was cast as the movies initial antagonist, a heavily disillusioned previous bearer of the 007 James Bond codename who forms an alliance of convenience to take revenge on Britain. Sean Connery later stated that signed on immediately after hearing the pitch.

There were plans to include Dalton and Roger Moore in cameo roles, but Dalton refused and Moore, although interested, eventually dropped out due to personal reasons. He would later replace Desmond Llewelyn as the new Q.

Ironically, the next Bond, Sean Bean, was initially cast in the role intended for Connery which itself was being written for him after executive meddling forced Gibson instead of Bean. [1]

In the movie, Mel Gibson is the most recent bearer of the James Bond identity, sent to investigate deaths of previous 006 and 007s in Siberia at the hands of infamous 'Winter Soldier.' During the investigation he finds himself captured by the original 007, Sean Connery. Connery has been left for dead by the MI6 on a mission. After being rescued by soviet agents, he spent several years in a coma (hinted to have affected his state of mind) and awoke to realize that MI6 awarded his identity to another agent. Adopting a new identity as the 'Winter Soldier' he helped KGB to combat and dismantle SPECTRE which has regrouped under new leadership.

The movie implies that Dalton James Bond and another agent were sent to terminate him although Judi Dench Q denies it. Woving revenge, Connery decides to help Russian reactionary extremists gain control of an abandoned SPECTRE satellite superweapon. In return for his help, Connery will be allowed to use the weapon to destroy Britain's economy with an orbital electromagnetic pulse. Connery only lets Gibson survive since he managed to acquire a crucial piece of equipment beforehand. He tortures him while psychoanalysing him at the same time which writers used to accentuate the differences between the two - Connery's aristocratic playboy heritage and Gibson's street/military experience.

The Russian commander (Željko Ivanek) betrays Connery as he plans to use orbital weapon to destroy Britain with an undetectable orbital nuclear attack, blame the regime in Moscow for the attack and reclaim it for the reborn Soviet Union. Connery does not want to see his country destroyed so he frees Gibson and they work together to stop the plan. Connery sacrifices himself to disable the orbital superweapon.

His parting words were „I was always the original Bond.“ to which Gibson replies „You were the best James Bond.“ Although memorable, many critics complained that the line was too cliche and included as pure fanservice. Despite the widespread belief, the movie's title was conceived before Connery's role was written.

The movie was a hit, earning over 370 million dollars in the United States, despite mixed reviews panning the weak plot with obvious rewrites and Gibson's performance. In a famous gaffe, then current american president praised Gibson's Bond as a true american hero.

Gibson's Bond was less sophisticated but more brutal and aggressive. Several scenes directly reference him growing up in poverty and being involved in street crime before being joining the military and serving in Falklands, a stark contrast to aristocratic and gregarious Bond of Sean Connery. The role of the Bond girl (Fairuza Balk) was quite different than in the previous movies, with her being Connery's henchman and exchanging a kiss with Gibson only at the end of the movie (the now infamous line "I should try a newer model")

Mel Gibson originally signed on for a two movie deal (his condition was that he would be free to make Braveheart between the movies) but was let go from his contract after his comments in the wake of killings in USA made him a persona non grata. Official explanation was that his performance was too reminiscent of Lethal Weapon. Sean Bean replaced him in the next Bond movie, Braving the Storm, three years after he successfully auditioned for the role.
--Cinema of the 1990s, 2001

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Tarantino heading to the Futurehouse

Quentin Tarantino's next movie is to be an anthology movie dedicated to science fiction movies of the seventies. Tentatively called Futurehouse it will include the following stories: "The Culinary Solution" featuring cannibal Nazis in a Soylent Green (1973) quasiexploitation pastiche, "The Kaffir's Wheel", a Logan-Runesque (1976) plot set in the Apartheid regime, "The Glowing Wall", a post-apocalyptic tale about an Israeli and a Palestinian inspired by A Boy and His Dog (1973) and "Pigland", a story about a secret park where top members of the Politburo kill robotic replicas of Western leaders inspired by Westworld (1973).

Tarantino's announcement has already attracted widespread critique for being distasteful and inappropriate. Tarantino said that he was inspired by the success of the Star Trek and Star Wars movies to return to the gritty spirit of 1970s scifi movies that preceded them.

--Variety magazine, 2000


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Zenith of the Star Trek

Star Trek: Lives in the Balance (1999) is the ninth film in the Star Trek film franchise, the third one to feature the cast of the Star Trek: The Next Generation television series and the first one to feature members of the cast of the Star Trek: Deep Space Nine series. Although planned, Leonard Nimoy did not appear in the movie thus failing to unite three series together.

Star Trek: Lives in the Balance was the highest grossing film on its opening weekend and made over 277,6 million in the United States alone, making more money than the previous three movies combined. In addition, movie won some critical acclaim for its metaphorical portrayal of current political issues. Patrick Stewart's portrayal of commodore Picard and his moral and political dilemmas was especially praised by critics and average movie goes alike. Although there was talk of Oscar nominations for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actors this was proven to be just a buzz. The film was nominated only for special effects and makeup and failed to reach the impact of Star Wars movies.

In the plot of the movie, newly promoted commodore Picard takes Enterprise-E, under command of captain William T. Riker, on a diplomatic mission to prevent brewing civil war in the former territory of Klingon Empire. Picard and Riker are reunited with Worf, current Federation ambassador to the Klingon Commonwealth. They are also joined by Garak, new Cardassian ambassador and former colleague of Worf from Deep Space Nine. Additionally, the Federation itself is divided in the aftermath of the devastating war and is torn between the isolationist faction and the one favoring preemptive attacks, including joining Klingons in taking over the Romulan territory. Riker and Picard end up on a collision course which will determine the fate of the galaxy.

The movie is best remembered for its special effects, especially no less than three separate space battles and the damage inflicted to Enterprise-E, but also for iconic speeches of Patrick Stewart in the middle and the final acts and the mortal duel between the former comrades. Fans were thrilled to see that the movie followed the possible future shown in the Star Trek: the Next Generation series finale but saddened that one of Trek's favorite characters died. Critics noted that starting and ending the movie with a battle was copied from Star Wars movies, as was the Riker-Picard mentor-adversary relationship, but conceded that it was very well done.

More intellectual viewers were surprised by the nuanced portrayal of the Klingon breakup and the far reaching effects that Enterprise has on the galactic political scene with its actions. The movie was first to delve into political structure of the United Federation of Planets which played into its unexpectedly bittersweet ending. This contributed tremendously to its staying power in the cinemas (especially with the Star Wars movie delayed) and garnered attention from a wider audience.

Various political commentators attacked the movie as preaching careless interventionism and converting viewers against current administration's approach to ongoing worldwide political instability. Others attacked Picard's strict adherence to the rights of self-determination and idealism. Since movie ended on a uncertain note, the crew and cast were divided as what the message of the movies was, and even the two screenwriters had different ideas.

As a result, plot of the movie was cited in the House, and later featured as part of a question by an audience member in one presidential debate.
--Star Trek: The Inside History, 2001

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Mediocre at Home, Popular in Russia

Crimson Tide (1995) is a hit American submarine movie, partially inspired by real events. Produced by Don Simpson and Jerry Bruckheimer and staring Gene Hackman and Denzel Washington, the movie garnered wide acclaim for excellent acting, award winning film score by Hans Zimmer and plot referencing political turmoil in Russia.

Gene Hackman plays Frank Might, commander of the USS Alabama submarine which receives order to preemptively launch their missiles after a minor nuclear exchange in Russia. An Akula class submarine attacks the Alabama before a second order is received. Following the attack, his new executive officer Ron Cogent (Denzel Washington) refuses to concur with the launch before they can confirm the second message is not the retraction, noting that they are not the only submarine in the area, and that a blind launch might incite global nuclear war. Hackman attempts to arrest Washington and Washington mutinies. What follows is a series of betrayals, mutinies and standoffs before communication is restored and retraction order received: a truce has been agreed in Russia.

Movie was filmed without cooperation from the U.S. Navy which objected to portrayal of a mutiny on a U.S. naval vessel and with attempts by the State Department to alter the script or stop filming of the movie. French navy assisted the crew with filming.

Crimson Tide was a moderate hit in the U.S., but a surprise international hit, earning more than 180 million dollars. The movie received good reviews, praising performances by the main actors, although several pundits attacked the movie for attempting to preach „wishy-washy“ wait-and-see approach.

There was interest for a sequel, but Denzel Washington refused to reprise the role noting that sequels would diminish the impact of the original story. There were rumors of recasting Ronald or using new characters. The most persistent rumor was about sequel focusing on a Russian submarine given order to fire on the USA prompting Sean Connery to publicly state that he does not want to play a submarine captain again (referencing his role in The Hunt for Red October in 1990).

Ironically, the movie prompted trend of Russian propaganda movies depicting brave submarine crews, starting with Багровый прилив (Crimson Tide in Russian) in 1998. The movie depicts the fictional Вызов soviet submarine fighting to launch a retaliatory strike against the Eastern Coast of America in the wake of a global nuclear war. Although named after Crimson Tide, the movie has been described as Russian Das Boot but with a victorious ending.
--Cinema of the 1990s, 2001

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Early concept art for Episode VII

From Death of the Creator, a Saga is Reborn

Star Wars Episode VII: Heirs to the Empire (1997) is the fourth filmed movie in the Star Wars franchise, seventh chronologically and the first one made after the death of the franchise creator, George Lucas.

The first movie, simply called then Star Wars, was intended as a one-off despite later claims by George Lucas to the contrary. The Star Wars saga spent many rewrites, and what had once been considered to be a possible serial was finalized into a self-contained movie, containing many cryptic references of a wider galactic saga. The movie was a phenomenal success, becoming the first true blockbuster.

George Lucas hired author Alan Dean Foster to write two sequel novels, planning to adapt his work, but later changed his mind. His original intention was to have a series of films with no set number of entries, inspired by the James Bond franchise. Between 1977 and 1978 Lucas changed several ideas about the direction of the sequel, compounded by stress over the movies success, death of one of his collaborators and outside pressure. Lucas finally took upon himself to write the first draft of the sequel, Episode II and originated the idea of a trilogy.

Lucas invented a new backstory, with Vader being Luke's father and expanded the idea for a trilogy into a trilogy of trilogies, retitling the original movie and the planned sequels as episodes IV-VI. Despite the successes of both sequels, George Lucas grew increasingly dissatisfied. His personal life was disintegrating and he disagreed with his collaborators on what made the franchise great. Suffering from general burnout, he vowed he would not make any more movies, cancelling the sequel trilogy by the time Return of the Jedi was released. He soon divorced his wife Marcia.

Much of Star Wars magic was due to George Lucas being forced to listen to advice of his former wife, Marcia, or getting other people to write screenplays and direct the movies. While George Lucas was primarily concerned with special effects, his wife Marcia helped to pace the plot or even suggested outright ideas like Ben Kenobi getting killed in the original movie or establishing trench attack scene. Also important was Lawrence Kasdan who cowrote the Empire Strikes Back and Return of the Jedi with George Lucas. Kasdan parted ways with George Lucas over approach to the Return of the Jedi. He later decried the entire Yavin part and reported that George Lucas was by then thinking more of merchandising than of movies epic quality.

Burned out, George Lucas wanted to turn to other projects in the eighties but several factors turned him back to his saga. Lucas was always fascinated by technical advances and remembered many unfilmable ideas he had to abandon. He lost a lot of money in a divorce settlement with Marcia in 1987 and resented the fact that many of his colleagues considered her, Kasdan and others responsible for the success of Star Wars. In his mind, he was the one who made magic. By the start of nineties, Dark Horse comic line and Timothy Zahn's trilogy of novels were proven to be a success, reinvigorating interest into Star Wars.

In 1994 George Lucas started writing the stories for a prequel trilogy, wanting to focus on Darth Vader/ Anakin Skywalker. Called Episode I: the Beginning, it remained unfinished before Lucas was an accidental victim of the assassination attempt on Steven Spielberg by the Patriot Front. While in hospital, Lucas allegedly told Steven Spielberg that if anyone should make more sequels, he should be the one directing it. While Spielberg recovered from his minor wounds, Lucas died from the consequences of sepsis, five weeks and two amputations later.

To Spielberg's surprise, Lucas stated in his will that Spielberg is his choice to direct and produce both prequel and sequel trilogies, if any of them are made. While the rights to the Star Wars franchise were inherited by Lucas's adopted children, the foundation managing his estate was very willing to make new movies, especially since Spielberg received a 25% share of Lucasfilm in a last minute addition to the will. Lucasfilm and Dreamworks would often partner up, until Lucasfilm was bought by Warner Bros Studios.

Spielberg agreed to produce the movies, plagued by guilt that Lucas died instead of him, but was reluctant to direct them or finish the story treatments. Lucas had several conflicting story ideas for Episode I and almost none for Episode VII (his death revealed that despite his public statements he continued to toy with ideas for a sequel trilogy in private). Spielberg recruited Kasdan and as much of the original crew to plan the prequel trilogy and expand notes Lucas left behind.

Kasdan later noted that much of them were of limited use, denoting alien characters, contradictory ideas or were just plain bad. It was later found out that Lucas sketched a biological explanation for the Force and planned to make both pre-Empire Republic and the Jedi order a recent memory, which did not go well with lines established in Episode IV. On the other hand, Spielberg and his collaborating producers correctly guessed that audience wanted to see more of Han Solo, Luke Skywalker and others, despite the implied happy ending at the end of Episode VI.

Unlike prequel trilogy, there were already widely acclaimed Episodes VII-IX. Writer Timothy Zahn wrote the novel trilogy between 1991 and 1993, each novel making it into the New York Times best-seller list, and selling over 15 million copies in the initial run. Zahn was recruited by Spielberg to write screenplays of his novels for the sequel trilogy and to help establishing the prequel trilogy about Anakin Skywalker. Kasdan and Zahn quickly started to work on both trilogies, with ideas organically flowing from one into another. Kasdan later credited Zahn with establishing much of the tone of the prequel trilogy, while Zahn credited Kasdan with setting up a more nuanced and mature view of the Force, Empire and the old Republic.

Zahn's novels could be more readily adapted for the big screen, so production began in late 1995 and the movie was released in 1997. All three movies in the sequel trilogy were filmed consecutively between 1995 and 1999, and separate filming of the prequel trilogy began in 1996 as the principal filming for Episode VII finished.

However, Heirs to the Empire was quite different from the original Zahn version. Aside from the late production change in the name (Heirs instead of Heir), the overall timeline was moved to 15 years after the battle of Yavin to accommodate the age of the actors. Many characters and plots were dropped, altered or drastically shortened. Examples include smuggler Talon Karrde who is a major character in the original novel versions, but reduced to a minor role in the movies. Mara Jade (played by Famke Janssen) was made Thrawn's assassin right from the start, and Luke Skywalker's temptations by the Dark Side have been inspired by the Dark Empire comic book series and the planned revelations in the prequel trilogy.

Casting Thrawn proved to be a challenge with the role initially going to Australian-British actor Hugo Weaving. Although several test scenes were shot with Weaving in makeup, it was later decided that Thrawn although menacing, did not project the gravitas of a leader and a strategist Zahn intended. A chance encounter lead to then little known Australian John Noble being cast as Thrawn. Hugo Weaving ended up playing the Dark Jedi Deak Starkiller in the prequel trilogy

The character of Jorrus C'Baoth was merged with Lucas's planned character of Qui-Gon Jin from the unfinished Episode I notes and mostly moved to Episode VIII due to production issues with planned prequel trilogy. Harrison Ford, now a top movie star, did not want to be tied to the new trilogy and requested his character to die in a heroic sacrifice.

Grand Admiral Thrawn, as portrayed by actor John Noble

A teaser trailer was released in 1996, featuring only John Noble as Thrawn in a scene that played differently in the movie. Opening on an imperial bridge, camera approaches the commanding officer standing in a thoughtful pose. The figure suddenly turns to the camera saying with a sly smile „I have been away, but now I have returned. Rejoice, for the Empire will rise again.“ Cut to the John Williams music and multiple shots of Imperial forces, aged Skywalker, Solo, Leia and Mara Jade. The teaser was a massive success with people lining up in cinemas just to watch the trailer again and again.

Star Wars: Heirs to the Empire proved to be a commercial and critical success, earning over 866 million dollars worldwide during the initial run. It was followed not by episode VIII but by Episode I: The Clone Wars released in late 1998. Although critics warned of public becoming oversaturated with six Star Wars movies in seven years, alternating releases of prequel/sequel trilogy movies mitigated the effect, helped by clever writing which foreshadowed events in other trilogies or revealed facts unknown to characters in other trilogies (especially after the revelations in Episode II, the only movie to surpass Episode VIII in box office).

Also of note were tonal differences between the trilogies.The prequel trilogy depicted the galaxy in disarray, mired in wars, conflicts and corruption while the sequel trilogy portrayed the Imperial Forces as a force of ruthless extremists. Protagonists in the prequel trilogy use force to make right in the first trilogy, in the middle trilogy bring down the order corrupted by evil, and in the third trilogy they are challenged with opponents ostensibly fighting for the same cause - order. Many of the original fans disliked the greyish portrayal of episodes VII-IX but adored episodes I-III for the same reason.
--Cinema of the 1990s, 3rd ed, 2004
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[0.3.1] In case this is not clear, this actually happened OTL, so we ended up with Sean Bean as 006.

 

[Vice President Mike]

What's the back story?

 

[Jack Hawksmoor]

______________________________
Prelude 04: Towards a New Beginning
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Why Democracy was Just a Moment[/FONT]

The collapse of communism from internal stresses said nothing about the long-term viability of Western democracy. Marxism's natural death in Eastern Europe was no guarantee that either subtler tyrannies await us, here and abroad nor that peace shall finally reign through the world. History has demonstrated that there is no final triumph of reason, whether it goes by the name of Christianity, the Enlightenment, or, now, democracy.

To think that democracy as we know it will triumph -- or is even here to stay -- was itself a form of determinism, driven by our own ethnocentricity. Indeed, those who quote Alexis de Tocqueville in support of democracy's inevitability should pay heed to his observation that Americans, because of their (comparative) equality, exaggerate "the scope of human perfectibility." Despotism, Tocqueville went on, "is more particularly to be feared in democratic ages," because it thrives on the obsession with self and one's own security which equality fosters. Current decade has provided ample evidence that his observation was more than prophetic.

I submit that the democracy we've tried to encourage in many poor parts of the world has shown to be an integral part of a transformation toward new forms of authoritarianism; that uncoordinated response to the changing world has promoted instability and further conflicts instead of a peaceful transition to the new world order; that democracy in the United States is at greater risk than ever before, and from obscure sources; and that many future regimes, ours especially, could resemble the oligarchies of ancient Athens and Sparta more than they do the current government in Washington.

[...]

My point, hard as it may be for Americans to accept, is that Russia has failed and divided itself in part because they tried being a democracy and China is failing because it is trying too much not to end up like Russia.

[...]

Though the swing toward democracy following the Cold War was a triumph for liberal philosophy, the pendulum will come to rest where it belongs -- in the middle, between the ideals of Berlin and the realities of Hobbes. We are currently exporting our ideals to a disastrous result and a alignment towards Hobbesian Leviathan is inevitable.

--Robert D. Kaplan, Why Democracy was just a Moment, The Atlantic, 1997 [1]

______________________________

Permanent Security Council Seat remains vacant: No agreement on the Legal Successor(s)
--New York Times headline, [date redacted]

______________________________

Robert D. Kaplan

Interview: 'A return to 1991 or 1945 is impossible'

There are few places in the world Robert D. Kaplan has not visited and written about in his books and articles. His uncanny ability to see conflicts looming on the horizon well in advance has given him universal acclaim and attention. In the new administration he will work in what some consider the second best office in the White House, Henry Kissinger's office.

At 48, he will not be the youngest national security advisor in American history. McGeorge Bundy was only 41 when he became national security advisor to President John F. Kennedy; Henry A. Kissinger in the Nixon administration and Richard V. Allen in the Reagan administration were only 45.

CBS: You have accepted the president-elect's offer to serve as his new National Security Advisor prompting critique about you qualifications for that position. You are certainly an unusual choice, given that you have shown lack of interest for diplomacy and foreign leaders, focusing in your works on experiencing other countries. Do you think those complaints are justified?

Kaplan: They say I do not care about foreign leaders much and they are right. Diplomacy is not my job and I will leave it to the President, Secretary of the State and other talented officials in the administration. I will focus on what the Assistant to the Presidents for the National Security Affairs is supposed to do - advise the President. I have no ambition to become the modern 'Kissinger' as some claim. In fact, I could not be half the diplomat he was and he would agree if he was still with us. What president wants is someone with insight, who has travelled across the world and experienced it, to temper the impression that the new administration is run by the military.

CBS: Sources from the current administration confirmed you were considered for a job in the White House two years ago. Why did nothing come out of it?

Kaplan: Nothing was offered to me but I heard the rumors. I was in Austria at the time, covering the expansion of the European Border Wall. I tacitly expressed lack of interest in an interview and so nothing came of it. It had nothing to do with politics - had the same president made the offer today, I would have been honored to serve. It was just that I was trying to figure out where is the Europe going with disarray in Asia.

CBS: What made you change your mind then? Was it something you saw in Europe or Asia?[/SIZE]

Kaplan: To tell you the truth, ten years ago I would never imagine myself getting involved with the White House and the Oval Office. So more or less like the president-elect. [laughs] Since then, I've heeded the message of his campaign and came to realize that it is time to start leading by example. Voter turnout, presidential elections not withstanding, is steadily decreasing at the same time the use of antidepressants is rising. With unemployment, gas prices and attacks people avoid important national and international news because much of it is tragic and hard to understand. This willingness to give up self and responsibility is sine qua non for tyranny, as I mentioned in my book, Anarchy Realized. There needs to be a drive for well-informed policies that will forestall future disasters and I am a part of it. The president is building a realist, bipartisan approach to the 21st century.

CBS: You've also been criticized for your remarks about democracy in danger in America and some of your writings about corporations can be interpreted as 'antibusiness'. Do you have anything to say about that?

Kaplan: I stand by my statement. America has allowed itself passivity while the world is growing steadily more unpredictable. It may seem strange with Cold War being over, but democracy is now more at danger than ever.

Growing complexity of everyday life dulls the blade of democratic governance and calls for safety strengthen the authoritarian rope.

Take for example the continuing struggle against drug abuse or the effect CIRCA[2] regulation had on the WorldWeb. I've had the opportunity to meet with Tim Berners Lee, one of pioneers of information management systems. He was not as despondent his own royalty free model was only embraced by what we call now the Unstable World. He idealistically envisioned that world will be connected in one free world wide communication network by 1995. He was right on the mark but now, in the 21st century this sentiment has turned back not only in Americas, but also Europe and most of Asia, Japan not withstanding.

We are now returning full circle to beliefs of our founding founders with calls for tempered authority to secure liberty and security. I, and may I add others in the new administration admire Dwight Eisenhower who warned us against the worst excesses of a military-industrial complex and I this is what I meant. The fact remains that the whole 20th century has shown how fragile democracies are so we would be wise to preserve the conditions that enable the American condition.

CBS: Your statements, articles and books have been used by supporters of both isolationism and those who would have us police the world. What is your perspective on world politics?

Kaplan: I believe the main issue with interpreting my works is that I don't accept the difference between humanism and realism. Realists understand the slow route is the safer and steadier one. We have to approach problems one by one. Decisive action in one sphere will not necessarily help the victims in another.

On the other hand idealism goes perfectly with idealism. When things don’t work out perfectly according to perfectionist fantasies, idealists want to retreat back across the ocean. Now, we cannot withdraw anymore, because there is no longer any ocean to distance us from the world. So we are always engaged now and we are not in control.

As societies grow more populous and complex, the idea that United Nations could engineer reality from above has proven absurd. We are living in an age of localized mini-holocausts. [3] We’re in many ways not living in era of 1991, or 1945 or even 1919 - we are still living in the post-colonial era, where states were organized by the Berlin Congress in 1883 and they have finally began to crumble.

CBS: Is it accurate to say that liberals attack you for defending late dr. Kissinger and conservatives attack you for critiquing American political system?

Kaplan: Yes, and I don't blame them. As I said, I am both a realist and a humanist. It is hard to accept that most policymakers are more influenced by public opinion than by their own personal beliefs. Callously put, millions can die in Europe, Africa or Asia without directly affecting the United States. As I wrote in my book, only when moral interests crosshatch with strategic ones will the public be willing to tolerate blood in an intervention.

CBS: A sensitive topic is your breakout book, Balkan Ghosts: A Journey Through History. It has allegedly affected U.S. botched policy towards Balkan wars and you have later expressed regret for it being used in this way.

Kaplan: When I was writing and finishing ‘Balkan Ghosts’ and having it copy edited, I had a limited life experience: my two previously published books, on Ethiopia and Afghanistan, which were reviewed well, and sank without a trace.

]When I was reporting ‘Balkan Ghosts’ in the 1980s, the Balkans were like Ethiopia, an obscure country. I didn’t even consider the idea that any policymaker would read it. I saw it purely as an entertaining journalistic travel book about my experiences in the 1980s.

You have to remember that the book was rejected several times and only published in 1993., after the community got involved. U.S. could have adopted a different, more successful approach. I did want to depict the intensity of hatreds and unresolved historical grievances in the region as a sort of a warning alarm: why are you cheering the end of the Cold War, this place is about the blow up.

I did not want to paint any effort to stop the conflicts as pointless, only that they are inevitable. And I was not the only one who wrote about ethnic clashes. The nation state was coming apart and with no middle class, no alternative elite, big youth bulges, urbanization and inflation it was bound to happen. In many ways Yugoslavia was prophetic for the rest of the decade, earning me great reputation in process but rest assured, the burden of the seven figure death toll lies heavily on my mind.

--CBS interview with Robert D. Kaplan, 1999

______________________________
[/FONT]
Egypt and Hejaz to sign Mutual Defense Alliance; second United Arab Republic not 'out of question'?

--Washington Post headline, [date redacted]

______________________________

By all accounts Eric Hobsbawm was right: twentieth century began in 1914. and ended in 1991. The year began with the U.S. led Coalition expelling Iraq from Kuwait, was followed by the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact during the summer and ended with the start of Late Balkan Wars.

There are valid arguments to place the beginning of the Long Chaos at Tiananmen Square, with the fall of the Berlin Wall, tie it to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, with either of the August Putsches, IL-96 or the Red Resurgence. I believe that the Long Chaos began in earnest with the Death of Three Presidents and the disastrous war the followed. That was the first instance where a breakdown of political apparatus led to an explosion of underlying cultural, economical and religious conflicts...

--preface to the Anarchy Arrived: the Long Chaos and its Causes, Consequences and Future by Robert D. Kaplan [4]

______________________________

[0.4.1] Mostly the same as OTL essay, Was Democracy Just A Moment? (http://www.theatlantic.com/past/issues/97dec/democ.htm). There are several subtle but deliberate differences.

[0.4.2] Computer Information Regulation of Content and Access bill.

[0.4.3] Actual OTL quote.

[0.4.4] ATL book which coined the term Long Chaos which is used to describe period after the end of the Cold War. Also a runner up for the name of the timeline.[/SIZE]

 

[Rascallite]

Subscribed.

 

[The Mahnovite]

Holy sh**! You just offed Tuđman, and God knows how many others. That will let things spiral out of chaos.

 

[King of the Uzbeks]

Subbed. Cool Beans, a dystopia.

 

[Jack Hawksmoor]

______________________________

______________________________
S01E01: The Crack Appears
______________________________

Open in new tab for background music



From Vardar to Triglav, unofficial second anthem to Socialist Federative Republic of Yugoslavia [1]

From Vardar to Triglav
From Đerdap to Adriatic
Like a string of shiny necklace
Lighted up by brightly Sun
Proudly in midst of Balkans
Yugoslavia, Yugoslavia.

Throughout the world the road had led me
I kept following my fate,
(And) I carried you in my heart.
I have always cherished you
My beloved homeland.
Yugoslavia, Yugoslavia.

I love your rivers and mountains,
Your forests, meadows and sea,
Love your proud people,
And tiller and shepherd
The flute when he plays,
Yugoslavia, Yugoslavia.

(So) Much blood has been shed for you
Fight of ours has delivered you,
Workman's hand had created you.
Live merrily in freedom,
(Let) Our love lead you,
Yugoslavia, Yugoslavia.​

______________________________


Tell me again what this is all about.
--George H.W. Bush to USNSA Brent Scowcroft about the situation in Yugoslavia [2]

______________________________


There are those who write that one day Yugoslavia will disintegrate. Nothing like that will happen because our army will ensure that we will continue to move in the direction we have chosen for the socialist construction of our country.
--Josip Broz Tito, [3]

______________________________


After Tito’s split with Stalin in 1948, the question surfaced in the early 1950s as to how much foreign aid Yugoslavia should receive from the West. One American economic analyst answered in terms of billions of U.S. dollars, and then one of the highest-ranking American administration officials replied that it was important just to “keep Tito afloat.”

By the end of the 1980s, when Ante Markovic[4] tried to keep his economic program going, only a few politicians in the West understood the importance of its implementation. The citizens of Yugoslavia were in desperate need of a unifying symbol after the economic failure of self-managed socialism and the collapse of the nonaligned movement. That symbol could have been the convertible dinar, for which Markovic fought through his economic program, but that plan could not succeed without economic aid from the West.

An October 1990 CIA forecast, which stated that Yugoslavia would cease to function within one year and would probably dissolve within two, argued that economic reform would not prevent the dissolution. The agency predicted that Serbia would block Slovenian and Croatian attempts to secede from the Yugoslav confederation, that there would be a protracted armed uprising by the Albanians in Kosovo, and that Serbia would foment uprisings by Serbian minorities in Croatia and Bosnia.

The CIA noted the danger of a slide from ethnic violence to organized civil war between republics, but considered it unlikely. It concluded flatly that there was nothing the United States or its European allies could do to preserve unity and that Yugoslavs would see such efforts as contradictory to the advance of democracy and self-determination.
--Matjaž Klemenčić, professor of History at the University of Maribor, [5]

______________________________


What was the final nail in Yugoslavia's coffin? Some say it happened when National bank of Serbia took out over 2,5 billion Deutschmarks from the National bank of Yugoslavia. This was ordered by Milosevic [6] who then used some of that money to finance his own campaign and pay off various interested parties. Yugoslavia's already crumbling economy shattered when 50% inflation followed as a result. Markovic asked for sanctions against Serbia and threatened with 'action' to return the money. Nothing happened and Yugoslavia plunged back into depression.

Others say when Serbia and its satellites within the Collective Presidency of the SFRY decided to block what should have been the automatic rotation to the office of President of the Presidency that is, nominal head of the SFRY, to the Croatian representative, Stipe Mesic. [7]

Why did this happen? Although some claim pure ethnic hatred there is a contention that the Serbian bloc did so to create conditions for a 'state of emergency' in which the Yugoslav People's Army [8] would have to declare martial law. General Veljko Kadijevic [9] did not pursue this course of action although he already requested a declaration of martial law two months earlier. Kadijevic wanted to do everything constitutionally although he was more and more aligned with the interests of Milosevic.
--The Dissolution of Yugoslavia, Vienna, 1994

______________________________

JNA tanks on highways

______________________________


Yugoslav Unity Eludes Baker in Belgrade

BELGRADE, Yugoslavia — Secretary of State James A. Baker III [10] admitted Friday that he was unable to dissuade Yugoslavia's independence-minded republics from breaking up the 73-year-old federation.

"What I heard here today has not allayed my concerns, nor will it allay the concerns of others" in the U.S. Administration and the international community, Baker said after spending almost 10 hours in meetings with federal officials and the presidents of all six constituent republics.

Slovenia has announced that it will declare independence next Wednesday and Croatia has indicated that it will follow suit.

"We think the situation is very serious," Baker said. "We worry about history repeating itself."

Baker was clearly alluding to the 1914 assassination of Archduke Francis Ferdinand of Austria in Sarajevo that touched off World War I, as well as a bloody civil war between Serbs and Croats that raged during World War II.

Speaking to reporters after talks with Prime Minister Ante Markovic, Baker called on all Yugoslavs to settle their differences peacefully without "violence or bloodshed or force."

Although clearly directed at all contending parties, Baker's words seemed to be especially intended as a warning against the use of military force by the federal government to prevent any of the republics from breaking away.

Baker said flatly that the United States would not recognize Slovenian independence if the republic goes through with its plans next week.

Slovenian President Milan Kucan [11] yielded no ground in his meeting with Baker. He later told reporters that the republic has no intention of changing its independence timetable.

Baker visited Belgrade immediately after a meeting of foreign ministers of the 35-nation Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, which adopted a statement warning Yugoslavia that it risks losing international economic and political support if it breaks up.

In his talks in Yugoslavia, Baker emphasized that European leaders would ostracize independent republics. The Europeans are concerned that civil war in Yugoslavia would produce devastating consequences for its neighbors, including a probable wave of millions of refugees.

Secession of any Yugoslav republic also could rekindle ethnic animosities in other Eastern European countries such as the Soviet Union, Czechoslovakia and Romania.

Baker said that he would confer with European leaders before deciding on his next step.
--Norman Kempster & Carol J. Williams, June 22nd, "Yugoslav Unity Eludes Baker in Belgrade", Los Angeles Times [12]

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-And I support, let them freely go to Europe, but without the Serb land and Serb people.-

-Slovenia?-

-Yes.-

-So you would let-

-Let them secede, but to understand each other, but without the Serbs.-

-And [even] the Brdo residence near Kranj in Slovenia should go to Serbia?-[13]

-Yes, of course.-

--discussion between a Yutel reporter and a Serb protester, Belgrade, 1991 [14]

______________________________


YUGOSLAV PEOPLE'S ARMY ESTIMATES circa 1990:

1.100 tanks
2.000 armored vehicles
374 combat aircraft
136 helicopters
70 ships
3.000 artillery pieces

______________________________


After meeting early today with the Soviet Deputy Foreign Minister, Yuri Klinchisky, a personal envoy of President Mikhail S. Gorbachev, Mr. Milosevic said that those who did not want to remain within Yugoslavia should be permitted to leave.

More ominously, he declared in a televised address that the Yugoslav Army should naturally remain as the defender of those who stayed.

--New York Times, CONFLICT IN YUGOSLAVIA; How Yugoslavs Hold Off Full-Fledged Civil War, July 7th, 1991. [15]

______________________________


The conflict in Yugoslavia presented the post-Cold War world, and Europe in particular, with a critical challenge. The country which, because of its complex population structure and attempts at social, political and economic innovation, was so often characterized as the 'laboratory test case' for particular problems, extended its reputation beyond its existence.

In its bitter dissolution, Yugoslavia, so long the guinea pig for students of internal factors, became the subject of international experimentation.

It was the litmus test of a 'new world order' in which the old world would be made to work better through international co-operation and in which new elements would be forged in the Yugoslav crucible.

--James Gow, Triumph of the Lack of Will: International Diplomacy and the Yugoslav War, Columbia University Press, 1997, [16]

______________________________


[001.01] This song was arguably more popular than the official anthem. Đerdap is a park in Northeastern Serbia. Vardar (Axios) is a river in south Macedonia. Triglav is the highest peak of the Julian Alps, in North West Slovenia. Flute technically refers to a special form of flute historically used by shepherds in the Balkans.

[001.02;03;05;06;07;12;14;15;16] This are real OTL statements and sources.

[001.04] Ante Marković, 30th and last Prime Minister of Yugoslavia. Bosnian Croat. Market oriented. Hailed by the BBC as 'Washington's best ally in Yugoslavia'. His economic reforms proved unsuccessful and his political party (SRS, Union of Reform Forces) failed in nearly every republic election. OTL he remained in Zagreb requesting Kadijević to step down and resigned only in December 1991. He faded into political obscurity, working as a consultant instead. He died in 2011.

[001.06] Slobodan Milošević, president of Serbia from 1989 to 1997 and president of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia from 1997 to 2000, and founder of Socialist Party of Serbia. He rose to power by riding the wave of Serbian nationalism, reducing the power of two autonomous provinces in SFRY. OTL Most commonly known for successfully waging proxy wars against Croatia and Bosnia and trying to ethnically cleanse Kosovo from Albanians. Overthrown in 2000, extradited to International Criminal Tribunal in 2001 where he died in 2006 without a verdict.

[001.07] Stjepan Mesić, 14th president of the Presidency of Yugoslavia, final president (and first non-communist) of Second Yugoslavia. Croat. His accession to the presidency on 15th May way blocked by Serbs with their incumbent Borislav Jović refusing to turn over his place. After diplomatic pressure Mesić assumed his duties but soon found himself to be powerless. OTL he resigned after Slovenia and Croatia declared independence. He became Speaker of the Parliament of Croatia, broke ties with Tuđman and his party and retreated to political irrelevance ending up in a liberal party. Eventually succeeded Tuđman as the second president of Croatia (2000-2008). Still alive and active, rumored to be pursuing a possible career at the UN.

[001.08] The Yugoslav People's Army (YPA) was the military of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, more commonly known as JNA according to its native initials (Jugoslavenska narodna armija). Since it directly grew out of partisan forces during WWII it never was truly dominated by the party. It grew immensely powerful in SFRY, having de facto autonomous jurisdictions and industry and being nicknamed "the seventh republic."

[001.09] Veljko Kadijević, 5th Federal Secretary of People's Defence, Yugoslavia. Born in Croatia to a Serbian father and Croatian mother, described himself as a Yugoslavian. OTL he lived in Moscow from 2001 to his death in 2014 to avoid an Interpol arrest warrant for war crimes. He blamed USA conspiracy for the Yugoslav break up.

[001.10] James Addison Baker III was Secretary of State during George H.W. Bush from 1989-1992. He previously served as Chief of Staff for the Reagan administration and as Secretary of the Treasury. OTL he served as Chief of Staff for G.H.W.Bush until the end of his presidency. He is still alive, served as consultant for Enron, envoy for the UN and founded his own think thank. He was chief legal advisor to G.W.Bush during the 2000 Florida recount.

[001.11] Milan Kučan, first president of Slovenia (1991 to 2002). Currently retired from politics but still active.

[001.13] Brdo (Hill) Kranj is castle located in central Slovenia built in 1499 when the Austrian Emperor Maximillian I gave permission to the noble George Egkh-Hungerspach to build a dam on the Vršek stream. Serbian prince regent Pavle (Paul) of Yugoslavia turned the castle into a royal residence.

 

[Kou Gakei]

I have to respect the deep research.

 

[FDW]

Wow, this TL is going to be an amazing clusterfuck.

 

[Marko]

This looks amazing, but the 7 figure death toll is really worrying

 

[BgKnight]

Subscribed, that is some good stuff.