Speculative What-if Fight: Poland v. Soviet Union 1937

Speculative What-if Fight: Poland v. Soviet Union 1937

  • Poland liberates the Baltic nations and links up with Finland

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Poland breaks the Red Army's momentum and marches into Ukraine

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    31
  • Poll closed .
Hello all. This is a bit of a poll. I am penning an alternate history series that begins in the Crimean War and centers around the World Wars. The question I am asking of you is this: Between Poland and the Soviet Union in 1937, which is most likely to win? Will the war be long or short? Let me provide context first, that way this is not so much a one-word answer. Explaining this timeline at length would take me ages, and that is *not* what I am here to do, so if you are curious about the timeline as a whole and all its deviations, PM me. Okay, onto the context. My version of the Soviet Union finds itself under Leon Trotsky's leadership due to Fanny Kaplan's assassination attempt going completely awry, rather than Lenin taking two bullets. Lenin goes on to lead Russia into the late 20s, retires, Stalin is absent due to his death in the Polish-Soviet War, leaving Trotsky to take up the mantle as premier. Fast forward to 1937, and he is planning to reinitiate the World Revolution, yet is against a stronger opponent at his Western border than before. Instead of newly independent Poland, Trotsky faces a smaller Intermarium, with only Poland, Finland, and the Baltic nations as members. (the other nations never signed thanks to a Third Balkan War following Yugoslavia's collapse, but that is not as relevant to this post). Now, I imagine removing the weakest link, i.e. the Baltic nations, out of the equation, would be Soviets top priority, and would mean fighting a two-front war, Finland on their north flank and Poland in the south. The two allies cannot exactly support each other except via the Baltic Sea--with neither having so much a strong naval presence (as far as I know). Considering our timeline reveals exactly how a war between Finland and the Soviet Union would go, ala the Winter War, what about Poland? She did not have a chance to show her true strength against an opponent on even ground. This is where my question comes into play. The Soviet Union, under Trotsky, is invading Poland simultaneously to Finland; can Poland hold the line? Or will she fall to the Red Army? Remember, it's 1937.
I appreciate your opinions on the matter. If you have any other questions relating to this, as in context, I can provide more.
 
The most important question to ask is whether Trotsky purges the Red Army officer corps the way Stalin did from 1937 to 1938. The second most important is ‘is there a Holodomor’?

If there’s no purge of the Red Army, expecting a repeat of the OTL Winter War might not be the correct assumption—a competently-led Red Army might storm them, leaving Poland and its lesser allies in boiling water.

And the Holodomor, IOTL, strongly turned Ukrainian sentiment against the Soviets—but also against the Poles due to the failure of the Polish Second republic to invade the Soviet Union and put a stop to it (as many Ukrainians at the time even begged, hard as it may be to believe). No Holodomor can mean a much more pro-Soviet Ukraine, a USSR that has more sympathy among Poland’s lower classes and Ukrainian minority, and to a lesser degree more Ukrainian nationalist cooperation with Poland (not a contradiction with the last point—just that Ukrainians who IOTL turned to Germany will instead align with either Poland or the USSR).

Your point on the Third Balkan War also raises the question of where Romania stands. Presumably Hungary is a big winner in a Yugoslavian breakup, so Romania and Czechoslovakia will both be focused on that issue. But the Romanians do share a border with the USSR and their participation in the war is a possibility.
 
I’d think Romania would be part of this Intermarium alliance as well, as they were interwar allies of Poland IOTL. That means a front stretching from Finland and the Baltic to Romania and the Black Sea.

The Soviet Union absent a dead Stalin, with Lenin leading it into the late 1920s and handing power smoothly to Trotsky afterwards, will be a radically different nation than the OTL Stalinist USSR. To answer the OP’s question, we need to speculate about what this Leninist-Trotskyist Soviet Union looks like first.
 
The most important question to ask is whether Trotsky purges the Red Army officer corps the way Stalin did from 1937 to 1938. The second most important is ‘is there a Holodomor’?

Yes and yes. Allow me to add more context because I get the feeling I may need to. The (secret) Treaty of Rapallo between Weimar Germany and the Soviet Union is never ratified. So no military cooperation--due to piecemeal Soviet support of the Spartacus Uprisings, and others across Europe. In fact, the Treaty of Rome (1924) is not ratified either, and the Treaty of Fiume is in its place. Essentially, Fascist Italy and Weimar Germany cooperate after the Acerbo Law is passed. Let me also make clear that White Russia still exists... in Alaska. This is why my timeline begins in the Crimean War, so that Alaska remains Russian. So the Purge still happens due to paranoia of White spies infiltrating the Kremlin, or worse yet, turncoats in their ranks (especially after Ignace Reiss defects). I figure this is a lot to unpack, so if it helps, I can post the complete timeline up to 1941. I have not exactly finished it yet past that point.

I’d think Romania would be part of this Intermarium alliance as well

The Third Balkan War sours relations with between all parties as Romania tried to sway Poland to side with them against Hungary and Bulgaria, but much like Austria's betrayal of Russia in the Crimean War, Poland remains neutral and in fact tries to resolve the conflict, regardless of who is the clear winner--fearing Germany or France would get involved. The Soviet Union signs a non-aggression pact with Romania in 1935 to maintain its neutrality in the event Poland and the Soviet Union should go to war. I think to pursue such a pact would-be in Trotsky's character. He was a clever man.
 
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As I've said before, I don't know why people assume that Trotsky was more likely to attack Poland before 1939 than Stalin was

Do know, I am merely exploring the idea of the Soviet Union also being another antagonist in the war, among other concepts I will not mention out of irrelevance to the topic. And---maybe the Soviet Union acts first, rather than waiting for Germany to take the initiative. This has nothing to do with any assumptions people have about Trotsky. I like his demeanor and believe him to be a capable leader. I cannot tell you how many documentaries on the war I have watched since 2000, but I can say that a majority of them completely ignore the Soviet Union's role in the invasion of Poland, its conquest of the Baltic nations and even downplay its war with Finland, let alone even a mention of the Russo-Jap Border Conflicts or Anglo-Soviet Invasion of Iran. I can say the same about my schooling too, all those years ago. They focus instead on the Soviet Union being a unilateral victim of German aggression. (But enough of me trying to explain myself) Now, that is not to say my timeline revolves around the Soviet Union. This is after all, but a basis from which to tell stories about those who fought in the war. I want to depict different perspectives than most people are familiar with, in a world that comes off as believable and well rounded. Take, for example, the Forest Brothers, Royal Gurkhas, Royal Sikhs, Polish Uhlans, Sections d'Eclaireurs Skieurs, Skull Squadron, and even the White Army (plus many more).

But despite all that, I appreciate your opinion David T. That is what I asked for. So, I will take that for what it is. Thank you.
 
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