Speculations of the 'Triple Intervention' against Japan

How might the Triple Intervention situation be differenyt?

  • 1. If Japan kept Shimonoseki gains it would have been more bold internationally than OTL

    Votes: 3 17.6%
  • 2. If Japan kept Shimonoseki gains it would have been less bold internationally than OTL

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 3. If Japan kept Shimonoseki gains it would have been bolder against China, but not whites, than OTL

    Votes: 2 11.8%
  • A. If Germany & France did not support Russia, Russia would not have ultimatum'ed Japan

    Votes: 4 23.5%
  • B. If Germany & France didn't support Russia, Russia by itself would have forced Japan to back down

    Votes: 2 11.8%
  • C. If Ger & Fra didn't support Russia, Russia would have threatened Japan, but Japan would fight

    Votes: 6 35.3%

  • Total voters
    17

raharris1973

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Speculating on a few questions here.

The effect of the Triple Intervention on Japanese foreign policy attitudes and approaches.

On the one hand, it pissed off the Japanese, they rebuilt for the next round, and humiliated the three intervenors in the coming decades (Russia 1904, Germany 1914 and France 1940)

On the other hand it probably made them cautious and aware of their weakness. Perhaps they would have been more reckless if they had managed keep all the gains they forced China to concede.

Also, would Russia have put the same demands on Japan to disgorge gains from China if she did not have two western powers backing her.
 

raharris1973

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I voted for 1. Bolder Japan and A. No Russian ultimatum

My rationale: I think being forced to back down had to be a sobering experience for Japan and it starkly pointed out the limits of what world powers would let Japan get away with.

While even with this setback in OTL, Japan built up for war against Russia eventually, but Japan had to keep all its focus on Russia and work closely with Britain. Japan during the intervening decade knew it could not be assertive in any other, “optional” directions.

Without the setback, Japan is more confident in its ability to beat individual opponents without having others intervene. They also have more freedom to choose where to assert their interests, because why not and because the have a good buffer across the Yellow Sea in the Kwangtung peninsula, southern Manchuria, and Korea. They do not have the Russians building up Pt Arthur and breathing down their neck.

So, if the Japanese want to assert more support for the Filipino rebels, or take a harder line asserting immigrant rights in the Republic of Hawaii, Tokyo can perceive this as an option.

For their part, I suspect the Russians will still dominate northern Manchuria for railway purposes, and this would not be an urgent problem for the Japanese. The Russian position in the Far East would probably be better in at least one respect- its Pacific fleet would be concentrated in Vladivostok, not divided between there and Pt Arthur.

As for the Russians choosing to not act alone, I think it is probable. Others on the board have pointed out that Russia by itself certainly had superior resources to Japan, especially Russia’s navy in the 1890s outmatched Japan. Russia *could* have beaten Japan 1 on 1 in 1895, I just do not think they would have tried, because it still would be a hassle and expense, and Russia spread its attention in multiple directions, and it had no complete Trans-Siberian railroad yet.
 

raharris1973

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If Japan keeps its Shimonseki gains, what will be its next occasion for war? And who will she fight against?
 
I'm not sure if Japan would be able to acquire the Philippines if the United States and Germany are still interested, considering the naval power disparity. They'd most likely try to apply diplomatic pressure for Filipino independence, IMO.
 

raharris1973

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I'm not sure if Japan would be able to acquire the Philippines if the United States and Germany are still interested, considering the naval power disparity. They'd most likely try to apply diplomatic pressure for Filipino independence, IMO.

What about Spanish Micronesia for themselves if it is independence for the PI they support?
 
What about Spanish Micronesia for themselves if it is independence for the PI they support?
I think it also depends on the intent of the USA. If they wish to annex the PI, then Micronesia will be either partitioned or still annexed into the American sphere. OTOH, if the Germans take the PI or the Japanese are successful in their lobbying for an independent Filipino republic, then there's more of a chance.
 

raharris1973

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I'm not sure if Japan would be able to acquire the Philippines if the United States and Germany are still interested, considering the naval power disparity. They'd most likely try to apply diplomatic pressure for Filipino independence, IMO.

There's a naval power disparity, but I could easily see the Japanese assign a higher value toward the distance disparity, that favors them, and have them not believe the other powers will step in unless they demonstrate some very sharp naval and economic actions to shock Japan out of its complacency/confidence. At the same time, I could see the American public and the German public (except for the Naval League crowd) saying "what the ...?" If their governments start talking about the Philippines as a fighting matter.
 
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