Speculations: Neutral OE in The Great War and Interwar World?

Whether a neutral Ottoman Empire is German leaning or not depends on who's in charge. I don't think a neutral Ottoman Empire is possible with the Three Pashas so it can't be them.

It was my impression that Enver was the most pro-German, the others less so, only he pushed for full alliance and events supported his bid, for example as Souchon arrived, Enver pushed to admit him, without such bold support from Germany I tend to see them leaning but not quite ready to get belligerent. Obviously the Entente actions are at play, Britain seizes the warships, France jumps feet first into Greece, Russia threatens, we have more balls in the air, but the Ottomans are on the fence without some better pushes.
 
Depends on the inducements from the Great Powers on both sides...

Which puts the Ottomans in a similar position to Italy IOTL, especially if somr kind of Salonika equivalent breaks out or when Bulgaria leaps in. The government in Konstaninye will snigf out the fact they are valued, and so can afford to sit on their hands for a year or so for the bidding war to take place and make sure their key concerns are alleviated. By the time the Straits are actually opened it such a scenario, it may very well be too late to save the Czar or keep the Russian army intact
 
Depends on the inducements from the Great Powers on both sides...
Like what? The Great Powers are in no position to stop the Porte from abrogating the unequal treaties. There are not really areas of land which could be ceded to the Ottomans by the British or the French, and the Russians would laugh at the suggestion that they cede even a square mile of territory.
Which puts the Ottomans in a similar position to Italy IOTL, especially if somr kind of Salonika equivalent breaks out or when Bulgaria leaps in. The government in Konstaninye will snigf out the fact they are valued, and so can afford to sit on their hands for a year or so for the bidding war to take place and make sure their key concerns are alleviated. By the time the Straits are actually opened it such a scenario, it may very well be too late to save the Czar or keep the Russian army intact

Bulgaria and Romania are interesting wildcards here, aren't they? If the Turks are nonbelligerent, then Bulgaria may not join the war. If Bulgaria is out, and the straits are closed, Romania may join the Central Powers if they even get into the war. Italy probably still joins the Entente here.
 
Bulgaria and Romania are interesting wildcards here, aren't they? If the Turks are nonbelligerent, then Bulgaria may not join the war. If Bulgaria is out, and the straits are closed, Romania may join the Central Powers if they even get into the war. Italy probably still joins the Entente here.

To be honest, as long as CP still loses along the same general trend and timeline I could care less if Bulgaria stays out, though Romania joining the CP is pretty unlikely given public and government sympathies. This is supposed to be a discussion about Ottoman Developments, not a "WW I if the Ottomans were neutral" thread.
 
To be honest, as long as CP still loses along the same general trend and timeline I could care less if Bulgaria stays out, though Romania joining the CP is pretty unlikely given public and government sympathies. This is supposed to be a discussion about Ottoman Developments, not a "WW I if the Ottomans were neutral" thread.

The 'problem' it's the fact that you cannot separate how the war end with how the Ottoman (as the rest of the world) develop; something as you ask aka everything more or less the same except the Ottoman are not involved in the war it's not possible, even if the war end a couple of months earlier mean a lot of change on how the post-war situation will be.
 
The 'problem' it's the fact that you cannot separate how the war end with how the Ottoman (as the rest of the world) develop; something as you ask aka everything more or less the same except the Ottoman are not involved in the war it's not possible, even if the war end a couple of months earlier mean a lot of change on how the post-war situation will be.

I'm not against the war being discussed; I'm just trying to turn the focus towards a lesser discussed sub topic rather than letting the war as a whole consume the conversation
 
I'm not against the war being discussed; I'm just trying to turn the focus towards a lesser discussed sub topic rather than letting the war as a whole consume the conversation

The Ottoman Empire developement will be tied to how Europe and Russia go after the war. It will end earlier? This mean that UK, France and Italy (plus the minor power) will be not only less bloodied by the war but much less indebted with the USA and economic consequences aside it will also mean Wilson will have a lot less influence in Versailles than OTL.
 
In my divergence it is Germany attempting to rebuild the OE on limited funds post-war and under the British shadow. My question is how much investment is there from Britain and France? Each has incentive to get debts repaid and scrimp on reinvestment. That should slow development. The French are less motivated to invest like the Germans and Britain has oil in Persia to exploit. We still have the Armenian issue and friction with the Greek minority and Greece. These are all favored by both Britain and France so relations might sour despite the OE being neutral. My questions also ponder how the surviving Three Pashas pursue their essentially Turkification of the OE, without the war they have less vitriol but without the war they are in power and the OE still needs reforms.
 
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