Sparsely populated territories which could have much more people?

The Avenger · Jul 21, 2018

Which sparsely populated territories (as of 2018 in our TL) could have much more people with a sufficiently realistic PoD no later than 1850?

I was inspired to create this thread by the extremely rapid population growth that the U.S. territories west of the Proclamation Line of 1763 experienced after American independence.

The Avenger · Jul 21, 2018

Here's a world pop density map to help you out:

http://luminocity3d.org/WorldPopDen/

Miguel Lanius · Jul 21, 2018

The Amazon might have had more people if the Aedis Aegypti had been extinguished in Brazil and never returned.

Another possibility is that the use of Terra Preta is preserved, and continues being used after colonization, which leads to better agriculture in the region.

Centralen · Jul 21, 2018

The USA is the most obvious example. The USA's land could probably sustain more than a billion people, but actually has less than a third of that.

cmakk1012 · Jul 21, 2018

Ireland, if England hadn’t been its nasty neighbor for the past thousand years

The Armenian Highlands, if various steppe hordes and expansionist empires hadn’t used them as a dual-use freeway and battleground for the past two thousand years

Escape Zeppelin · Jul 21, 2018

Centralen said:
The USA is probably the most obvious example. The USA's land could probably sustain more than a billion people, but actually has less than a third of that.

Most of the Americas really.

The Avenger · Jul 21, 2018

Miguel Lanius said:
The Amazon might have had more people if the Aedis Aegypti had been extinguished in Brazil and never returned.

Couldn't some other mosquito have taken its place, though?

Another possibility is that the use of Terra Preta is preserved, and continues being used after colonization, which leads to better agriculture in the region.

Any suggestions on how to do this?

Centralen said:
The USA is probably the most obvious example. The USA's land could probably sustain more than a billion people, but actually has less than a third of that.

Well, yeah, we could have continued our free immigration policy. The odds of that, though, would probably not be very large.

cmakk1012 said:
Ireland, if England hadn’t been its nasty neighbor for the past thousand years

Ireland had a famine in the 1840s, which is why many of its people emigrated.

The Armenian Highlands, if various steppe hordes and expansionist empires hadn’t used them as a dual-use freeway and battleground for the past two thousand years

Interesting.

Also, what about having Russia acquire this territory in the 19th or 20th centuries and having this territory become a part of Russia's Sun Belt?

Escape Zeppelin said:
Most of the Americas really.

Sure, but how to realistically accomplish this?

Richard V · Jul 21, 2018

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_renewable_water_resources

Divide by population, you do the math.

Pesterfield · Jul 21, 2018

Canada attempts to introduce reindeer herding in its far north, and tries to farm the food producing plants of the region?

cmakk1012 · Jul 22, 2018

The Avenger said:
Ireland had a famine in the 1840s, which is why many of its people emigrated.

The general poverty and lack of social mobility before and after the Famine didn’t help in terms of emigration IMO.

Interesting.

Also, what about having Russia acquire this territory in the 19th or 20th centuries and having this territory become a part of Russia's Sun Belt?

Russia acquiring all of it probably necessitates a collapse of the Ottoman Empire while Russia is doing well. But anyway, it’s possible, I guess, but it would be starting out with a small population base from how badly the region’s been treated. I’d guess you’d see heavy Russification in this scenario, with immigrants outnumbering the locals.

Lenwe · Jul 22, 2018

Well The obvious:
Uruguay: 3 million people in a territory The size of England plus Wales, and all of Uruguay have a Nice template weather, With a lot of sun
Argentina: 43 million people in a territory The size of Europe sans Rusia, fenoscandinavia, and the British islands
Chile: 17 million people in a territory The size of France plus The Benelux and Swizerland

All these Countries have a Nice template climate, withouth tropical diseases, plagues, dangerous animals, or venenous one.
How make them more populous, in The case of Uruguay and Argentina make their civil war shorter, so their are ended by 1830 or so (instead of 1880-ish)
In the case of Chile make his migration police more open as the country have a polític of only accept white Catholic settlers, With a preference for germans

Edit: Uruguay size comparation

Miguel Lanius · Jul 22, 2018

The Avenger said:
Couldn't some other mosquito have taken its place, though?

I think not, Aedes is the main vector for Dengue and Yellow Fever, and later Zika and Chikungonia. Its a hell-spawned creature better sent to its father, the devil. Its also ridiculously adaptable and has become dangerous with the years gone by.

The Amazon didn't used to be such a disease-infested land until that damn mosquito got here.

The Avenger said:
Any suggestions on how to do this?

Perhaps a softer collapse or no collapse of the Amazonian Chiefdoms that existed in the region before the Europeans came? Disease killed them.
Terra Preta was a mystery until recently. Perhaps if things didn't collapse as fast, maybe the colonists would have retained that knowledge, allowing people to make Terra Preta and do more agriculture in the amazonic region.

Augenis · Jul 22, 2018

The Baltics, Belarus, Ukraine and Poland could easily house two to three times more people if it weren't for the Deluge... the Great Northern War... WW1... WW2... the Soviets... and everything in between.

Actually, much of Eastern Europe could be a lot more populated if not for history. History is a bit of a dick.

Legofan4 · Jul 22, 2018

Something else to consider is to find a way to delay the demographic transition that occurred as countries get wealthier. Most of the developed world rapidly declined in population growth as the end of the 19th century approached as evidenced by today's barely above or even at or below replacement level fertility for some parts of Europe and East Asia.

The Avenger · Jul 22, 2018

Augenis said:
The Baltics, Belarus, Ukraine and Poland could easily house two to three times more people if it weren't for the Deluge... the Great Northern War... WW1... WW2... the Soviets... and everything in between.

Actually, much of Eastern Europe could be a lot more populated if not for history. History is a bit of a dick.

Interesting that Russia is not on your list.

The Avenger · Jul 22, 2018

Legofan4 said:
Something else to consider is to find a way to delay the demographic transition that occurred as countries get wealthier. Most of the developed world rapidly declined in population growth as the end of the 19th century approached as evidenced by today's barely above or even at or below replacement level fertility for some parts of Europe and East Asia.

A country can still grow after the demographic transition through immigration. Also, it's possible for the demographic transition to be somewhat reversed as more fertile people become a larger and larger percentage of the total population with each generation.

Augenis · Jul 22, 2018

The Avenger said:
Interesting that Russia is not on your list.

The region between Russia and Central Europe suffered even harder, for obvious reasons, as it was the buffer on which many of the region's worst wars were fought.

Though obviously Russia suffered a lot too.

David T · Jul 22, 2018

An old post of mine:

***
There is no reason in theory why the Kerguelen Islands could not support a population of, say, 10,000. As a friend of mine once observed, "The islands support sheep, rabbits and reindeer, the climate will allow the growth of root vegetables and cabbages, the sea around it teems with fish, and there are even some modest coal deposits. And if you reach modern times, there may be no place on earth richer in electrical power potential; hydro, wind, geothermal, take your pick." On the minus side, of course, nobody wants to live there, the islands being cold, bleak, windy, far from anywhere else, etc.

Maybe the Kerguelens become France's penal colony instead of Devil's Island? Something like 80,000 prisoners passed through Devil's Island, but the survival ratio in the tropics was bad. Presumably in the Kerguelens more would survive and become permanent settlers.

Or for a post-1900 POD: The French People's Republic under Comrade Thorez, completely rejecting the old imperialist French state's exiling criminals to a tropical hell, instead decides to rehabilitate them through Socially Useful Labor in a bracing climate...

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...kerguelen-islands.389860/page-2#post-12499564

Legofan4 · Jul 22, 2018

The Avenger said:
A country can still grow after the demographic transition through immigration. Also, it's possible for the demographic transition to be somewhat reversed as more fertile people become a larger and larger percentage of the total population with each generation.

That means that the country has to let large numbers of immigrants in which most don't really want to do. Also why wouldn't these immigrants also drop to the same lower fertility level after a generation. They will likely also to become wealthier in there new country if they are moving to the developed world.

The Avenger · Jul 22, 2018

Legofan4 said:
That means that the country has to let large numbers of immigrants in which most don't really want to do.

Some countries are more willing than others. The U.S., Canada, Australia, and New Zealand have been pretty willing.

Also why wouldn't these immigrants also drop to the same lower fertility level after a generation.

They would.

They will likely also to become wealthier in there new country if they are moving to the developed world.

Yep.

Also, my point about the increasing % of high-fertility people even without immigration and even with significant attrition still stands. Why do you think Israel's TFR exploded over the last 15-20 years?