Sparks to start WWIII in the early 1980's?

Okay I'm getting hyperstumped as to how WWIII will start and develop in my TL without having much similarities with Giobastia's Able Archer 83 TL, I mean it's the best TL IMO that can show how that war can start off on a conventional scale as far as I'm concerned; so I'll ask if you can make WWIII happen at least conventionally in the initial stages with a POD no sooner than 1975 and no later than 1983 (and no that Stanislav incident doesn't count).
 
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GarethC

Donor
Basically, you've got Fail-Safe, Dr. Strangelove, The Spy Who Loved Me, Red Storm Rising, and Operation Barbarossa

Fail-Safe - a technical fault in the systems of deterrence, possibly caused by an unintended consequence of the actions of the other side, leads to war. So radioelectronic jamming triggers the Bomb/Don't Bomb computer on board some B-52s, or a flock of geese are interpreted as missiles by DEW radar system.

Dr. Strangelove - a patriot who is a few french fries short of a Happy Meal gets into a position of starting the war by falsifying orders to otherwise loyal subordinates. Col. Ripper activates Wing Attack Plan R for Robert as though DC had been decapitated in a BotB attack.

The Spy Who Loved Me - a third party pushes the superpowers towards war intending to be the last man standing after everybody else is irradiated and dead. Stromberg captures SSBNs from the US and USSR and intends each to launch on the other country, after which both will counterlaunch.

Red Storm Rising - a natural disaster leads to a resource shortage which the governing clique decides is a casus belli - "the oil is running out, so we need to invade Iran, which the Americans won't let us do, so we'll invade Germany and beat them first, and then we'll conquer Iran afterwards, and then we'll have oil, and then we'll get Eddie Van Halen on lead guitar and Wyld Stallyns will be a bodacious band!"

Barbarossa - a patriot who is a few french fries short of a Happy Meal gets made head of the government, and comedy ensues.
 

Archibald

Banned
The shoot down of KAL-007 might be a good start. ERverybody knows that conservative Senator Larry McDonald was killed. But there was something special with that Boeing: the flight was to carry more senators to South Korea for a celebration about the Korean War armistice 30 years before (1953 - 1983)
Jesse Helms and a bunch of conservatives senators and representatives were onboard a second 747 (KE-015) that made it safely to Seoul. Some said Nixon should have been there, too.
Having a bunch of senators and representatives, plus Nixon himself, downed with KAL-007 and it might very well become a casus belli for WWIII.
 

Yeah, but I'm looking for real life events to draw from not stuff for Clancy-esque techno thrillers; not that those are bad things mind you.

The shoot down of KAL-007 might be a good start. ERverybody knows that conservative Senator Larry McDonald was killed. But there was something special with that Boeing: the flight was to carry more senators to South Korea for a celebration about the Korean War armistice 30 years before (1953 - 1983)
Jesse Helms and a bunch of conservatives senators and representatives were onboard a second 747 (KE-015) that made it safely to Seoul. Some said Nixon should have been there, too.
Having a bunch of senators and representatives, plus Nixon himself, downed with KAL-007 and it might very well become a casus belli for WWIII.

Well yeah, I can see something like that snowball easily.
 
Somewhat tangential to where I am going with my TL, tie in the placement of the Pershings with Able Archer. The Soviets believed the Pershings had the range to reach Moscow in about 6 minutes (I am pretty sure they did not have that range but the Soviets certainly believed they did). The were deployed on December 13, 1983. Push up the deployment about 5 weeks and suddenly you have a perceived first strike weapon arriving in the middle of Able Archer. Cuban Missile Crisis II.

Fuck, I wish I would have thought of this a year ago!!!!!!!! :(
 
Somewhat tangential to where I am going with my TL, tie in the placement of the Pershings with Able Archer. The Soviets believed the Pershings had the range to reach Moscow in about 6 minutes (I am pretty sure they did not have that range but the Soviets certainly believed they did). The were deployed on December 13, 1983. Push up the deployment about 5 weeks and suddenly you have a perceived first strike weapon arriving in the middle of Able Archer. Cuban Missile Crisis II.

Fuck, I wish I would have thought of this a year ago!!!!!!!! :(
That's funny Giobastia's take had that same premise too.
 
Yeah, but I'm looking for real life events to draw from not stuff for Clancy-esque techno thrillers; not that those are bad things mind you.

You might want to allow for an earlier POD even if it doesnt create the spark until the 1980-1983 window. It's really hard to do this within the guidelines you laid out.

One of the reasons I brought in Romanov in my TL is because I dont think Brezhnev, Andropov, Chernenko, or Gorbachev would have willingly started WWIII unless it was a launch on warning scenario. The biggest issue with the Able Archer scenario is Andropov was tied up in a Kremlin hospital to a kidney dialysis machine. Who starts a war when they are literally tied to a dialysis machine? Brezhnev was nearly incoherent at the end although he arguably kept the USSR from invading Poland as Ustinov, Gromyko, and Andropov were ready to. Chernenko was not much different than Brezhnev other than being even less dynamic, which is barely possible. These arent the type of people that undertake wars. Kaiser Willy, Hitler, Napolean, Kim Il Sung, Ho Chi Minh, and the like were all energetic people with an agenda. An Austo-Hungarian/Serbia type scenario is a decent bet but again, within the criteria you laid out, you dont have a lot of room to play with events outside of perhaps Poland.

Syria/Israel 1982 has potential. Agrentina/Uk has potential. Something with Iran or Pakistan has potential. But I think you need earlier PODs for all of these.
 

Archibald

Banned
Chernenko was not much different than Brezhnev other than being even less dynamic, which is barely possible

My mom lived through that time and happily nicknamed Andropov "Andropause" because he was so cranky.
 
You might want to allow for an earlier POD even if it doesnt create the spark until the 1980-1983 window. It's really hard to do this within the guidelines you laid out.

I think you're right about that, especially as it's hard for even myself to find a POD to get the Soviets in Iran by 1981 with that guideline, so I'll change it to 1975 just after the fall of South Vietnam if that would work.
 
I think you're right about that, especially as it's hard for even myself to find a POD to get the Soviets in Iran by 1981 with that guideline, so I'll change it to 1975 just after the fall of South Vietnam if that would work.
Great idea there. Keep us posted with such a post-1975 event what with a downsized US military facing such a situation in Iran. Any theories or PODs there?
 
Great idea there. Keep us posted with such a post-1975 event what with a downsized US military facing such a situation in Iran. Any theories or PODs there?

Well I did come up with this idea that the Soviets decide to stick with just Iraq instead of bothering to get friendly with Iran (whose regime very anti-Soviet) when the Iran-Iraq War happens; as a result they plan to intervene in the form of invading Iran and do so by 1981. Though I have a feeling I might be missing something, but that's the best I can come up with for this scenario.
 
Okay I'm getting hyperstumped as to how WWIII will start and develop in my TL without having much similarities with Giobastia's Able Archer 83 TL, I mean it's the best TL IMO that can show how that war can start off on a conventional scale as far as I'm concerned; so I'll ask if you can make WWIII happen at least conventionally in the initial stages with a POD no sooner than 1975 and no later than 1983 (and no that Stanislav incident doesn't count).

Extend Vietnan especialy the bombing of Hanoi ans accident wipe out The Soviet Preimer and ministers,
 
Extend Vietnan especialy the bombing of Hanoi ans accident wipe out The Soviet Preimer and ministers,
So keep the Vietnam War going, huh? I hate to be mean but by that time, the war being lost by South Vietnam to its Northern brother since it lost US aid in 1973.
 
So keep the Vietnam War going, huh? I hate to be mean but by that time, the war being lost by South Vietnam to its Northern brother since it lost US aid in 1973.

Vietnam was not lost by the Military it was lost by the Goverment. Give the Military permission to use everything but nukes and they could curb stomp them. I just thought this very unlikely in OTL have an accidental launch. non nuke, that has a trajectry toward USSR but having it hitting China. China and the USSR were not best buds at this time.
 
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