Spanish Victory in Spanish-American War

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

In OTL, the main Spanish fleet, against the advice of its commander, Admiral Cervera, was sent to the West Indies to confront US forces.

At this time, the fleet consisted of the three armored cruisers of the Infanta Maria Teresa class plus the armored cruiser Cristobal Colon, plus two destroyers.

One of the Maria Teresas, Viscaya, was in bad shape, desperately needing a docking after a long period of cruising, and the Colon had not yet had it's main armament installed, leaving it only with secondary batteries.

Sending them to the Caribbean was essentially a death-sentence, which the fleet was aware of and was probably not the best morale-builder. There were no safe bases to operate from, and Cuba is too close to the centers of American power to use as a base.

Cervera wanted to base the fleet in the Canaries and threaten all US moves on Cuba with his very presence, possibly striking at New England to create panic (to divert US naval resources - and it would almost certainly have been very effective), possibly attempting to intercept USS Oregon on its arduous trip from San Francisco to the East Coast, and waiting for reinforcements by ships that were under repair or completing.

These included the battleship Pelayo which was rebuilding in France, the huge armored cruiser Carlos V, four modern destroyers, and a large number of auxiliary cruisers and support vessels. In addition, Colon would have had its main battery installed, and Vizcaya brought up to full fighting-trim. In OTL, it's hull was so fouled that it's speed was lowered by several knots, which was catastrophic at Santiago.

That would mean:

1 BB Pelayo
1 AC Imperator Carlos V
3 AC Infanta Maria Teresa
1 AC Cristobal Colon
4 Protected Cruisers
6 DDs
5-6 torpedo gunboats

That's a pretty respectable force. While not a match for the USN, it would have been very difficult to maintain a blockade of Cuba and protect invasion transports with a fleet like that lurking about. The US had practically nothing in the way of destroyers or torpedo boats, a fairly significant advantage for the Spanish.

The USA had four good battleships, one 2nd-class BB, two good armored cruisers, a lot of really sad protected cruisers, and no destroyers:

1 BB Iowa
3 BB Indiana
1 BB Texas (2nd-class)
1 AC Brooklyn
1 AC New York
18 Protected Cruisers (of which 5 were decent)

In addition we had a few monitors and a gigantic quantity of auxiliaries, including large fast yachts, liners, armed tugs, and auxiliary cruisers, as well as all sorts of support ships.

If Cervera had based himself in the Canaries, bombarded Boston or Portland, and struck at blockading forces, it could have unravelled the US war effort.

As it was, the whole Eastern seaboard was demanding protection against the Spanish, which was a naval drain; if the Spanish had actually bombarded an Eastern port, we would have been forced to detach major units from the fleet.

Blockading forces would have been in a difficult position; there are a lot of ports to watch, and no individual blockading force would have been a match for the Spanish fleet. That would also have made it difficult, if not impossible, to land and maintain an expeditionary force.

Intercepting Oregon would have been a serious longshot, but if accomplished would be a huge blow to the US.

What do you think?

 

[The Vulture]

Hmm, this does sound like a fairly plausible scenario to beat the US in pitched battle rather than with diplomatic means, but I'm no naval expert.

 

[Ofaloaf]

Surely intercepting the Oregon wouldn't have been all that simple and neat for the Spaniards? She was a fairly decent ship, after all-- the damage she could've exacted on the intercepting ships/squadron(?) would've been costly to the Spanish Navy.

As for the main idea of keeping the fleet stationed in the Canaries-- isn't that a bit far away for a proper threat of a fleet-in-being? Transportation from Tampa to Cuba would require fewer escorts if the Americans were confident of the Spanish fleet being somewhere else. Even a raid or two along the New England coast might just inflame public opinion (aside from local merchants) and encourage pro-war sentiment.

 

[Leistungsfähiger Amerikan]

Wasn't Spain willing to give the Cubans independence right before the war IOTL? If so, then it could become a classic example of a war that the American people just don't want to wage--the Spanish are willing to give Cubans their independence anyway, and the fear of attacks hang over the heads of the American people.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Surely intercepting the Oregon wouldn't have been all that simple and neat for the Spaniards? She was a fairly decent ship, after all-- the damage she could've exacted on the intercepting ships/squadron(?) would've been costly to the Spanish Navy.

As for the main idea of keeping the fleet stationed in the Canaries-- isn't that a bit far away for a proper threat of a fleet-in-being? Transportation from Tampa to Cuba would require fewer escorts if the Americans were confident of the Spanish fleet being somewhere else. Even a raid or two along the New England coast might just inflame public opinion (aside from local merchants) and encourage pro-war sentiment.

In OTL, when Cervera disappeared into the Atlantic, it more or less paralyzed us until we knew where he was. From the Canaries you can strike anywhere from Portland to Brazil equally. It's far, but a difficult problem for the USA to solve.

Regarding Oregon, she would have been pretty vulnerable to a fleet action. Too slow to run, she was more powerful than any of the Spanish ships, but slow-firing and deficient in secondary armament. She had a very low freeboard, which would have caused problems in anything by a calm sea, especially since her main armament was unbalanced (meaning the ship would list in the direction the guns were pointed).

A raid along the coast might inflame opinion, but most likely against the navy, not the Spanish. People would be screaming for protection. In fact, the navy dusted off a bunch of old monitors to station in ports to shut everyone up. But the minute a Spanish squadron showed up, easily sank the monitor, and bombarded a city...

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Wasn't Spain willing to give the Cubans independence right before the war IOTL? If so, then it could become a classic example of a war that the American people just don't want to wage--the Spanish are willing to give Cubans their independence anyway, and the fear of attacks hang over the heads of the American people.

The Spanish were willing to grant autonomy. The situation was hopeless for Spain in Cuba, but they didn't have to throw away their entire navy in the process.

 

[Father Maryland]

Wasn't Spain willing to give the Cubans independence right before the war IOTL? If so, then it could become a classic example of a war that the American people just don't want to wage--the Spanish are willing to give Cubans their independence anyway, and the fear of attacks hang over the heads of the American people.

They offered independence in a form but from the start it was pretty apparent they were not willing to give actual independence and would keep full control.

 

[maverick]

When would this theoretical raid take place?

It's probably too late to prevent the falls of Guam and Manila, not to mention that half of Cuba is under rebel control already (at least since 1897, IIRC). If wikipedia is correct, and I know that's something of a stretch but let's assume it is for a minute, then we can consider this:

Although weapons and funding came from within the U.S., the supply operation violated American laws, which were enforced by the U.S. Coast Guard; of 71 resupply missions only 27 got through, 5 were stopped by the Spanish and 33 by the U.S. Coast Guard.[43]

Whether the United States can successfully supply the Cuban Rebels depends on how many ships the US Navy is devoting to defending the Eastern Shore and how many ships are taken from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for that task.



As for the Oregon, I guess it depends on how smart the Spanish commanders in the Pacific are and human error on the side of the Americans. It wouldn't have been impossible to have the ship sunken by the Spanish, we just need to find the right circumstances.

It would have been a bad blow to the American national morale, but probably countered by Guam and Manila.

 

[Father Maryland]

In OTL, when Cervera disappeared into the Atlantic, it more or less paralyzed us until we knew where he was. From the Canaries you can strike anywhere from Portland to Brazil equally. It's far, but a difficult problem for the USA to solve.

Regarding Oregon, she would have been pretty vulnerable to a fleet action. Too slow to run, she was more powerful than any of the Spanish ships, but slow-firing and deficient in secondary armament. She had a very low freeboard, which would have caused problems in anything by a calm sea, especially since her main armament was unbalanced (meaning the ship would list in the direction the guns were pointed).

A raid along the coast might inflame opinion, but most likely against the navy, not the Spanish. People would be screaming for protection. In fact, the navy dusted off a bunch of old monitors to station in ports to shut everyone up. But the minute a Spanish squadron showed up, easily sank the monitor, and bombarded a city...

Where exactly are they getting the coal and supplies for these apparently epic raids? Its a might of a distance from the Canaries to Portland.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Where exactly are they getting the coal and supplies for these apparently epic raids? Its a might of a distance from the Canaries to Portland.

From stocks in the Canaries, neutral ports, and colliers. In OTL they were essentially ordered to the Caribbean with no preparation or fleet train.

The Spanish cruisers were designed for very long range - they could easily make a round trip. Pelayo could not, nor of course could destroyers. In OTL, the destroyers were towed across, not without mishap, as no advance preparation to do this had been made.

 

[Rakhasa]

It would have been a bad blow to the American national morale, but probably countered by Guam and Manila.

Guam and (specially) Manila were of some importance to Spain, but in the end were merely colonial ports back away in the middle of nowere, thousand of miles from both Spain and USA interests. A foreign nation bombarding the East Coast cities is far more relevant than some lost island in the Pacific. And Spain does not need to "win" the war, they only need a peace teatry than returns the Status Quo.

 

[Admiral Matt]

As for the main idea of keeping the fleet stationed in the Canaries-- isn't that a bit far away for a proper threat of a fleet-in-being? Transportation from Tampa to Cuba would require fewer escorts if the Americans were confident of the Spanish fleet being somewhere else. Even a raid or two along the New England coast might just inflame public opinion (aside from local merchants) and encourage pro-war sentiment.

I'm not sure how much more pro-war sentiment could be inflamed. There's a fair argument that it was the single most popular American war.

As for Spanish "victory," I think it would be a relative thing. They certainly didn't need to throw their fleet away and lose everything outside the East Atlantic, but nor could they defeat the US outright. I suspect any peace terms would elucidate a specific statement on Cuban autonomy/independence. It's possible other islands would change hands or gain independence as well.

 

[OAM47]

Where exactly are they getting the coal and supplies for these apparently epic raids? Its a might of a distance from the Canaries to Portland.

I think we both might be confused. We're talking about Portland MAINE, correct, not Portland Oregon?

 

[MrP]

I think we both might be confused. We're talking about Portland MAINE, correct, not Portland Oregon?

Is this paragraph leading to confusion?

Cervera wanted to base the fleet in the Canaries and threaten all US moves on Cuba with his very presence, possibly striking at New England to create panic (to divert US naval resources - and it would almost certainly have been very effective), possibly attempting to intercept USS Oregon on its arduous trip from San Francisco to the East Coast, and waiting for reinforcements by ships that were under repair or completing.

It's the East Coast and the warship USS Oregon that are potential targets, not the state of Oregon.

 

[The Dude]

Interesting scenario you have here, Abdul. Still, as others have said, Cuba was revolting and had been doing so since 1897, and they were doing fairly well. American aid was only going to push the balance to the Cubans, however slightly. By then, it was all over. The Philippines were already a lost cause, as was Guam and Wake Island. With the Philippines, the revolt was just too large and the conditions too conducive to guerrilla warfare and the archipelago was just too far away from Spain in order to prevent its revolt and capture. And attacking the American mainland would've only made us more angry, in my opinion. After all, we are a stubborn, eye-for-an-eye bunch.

 

[OAM47]

Is this paragraph leading to confusion?



It's the East Coast and the warship USS Oregon that are potential targets, not the state of Oregon.

Yeah, I went back and found that. I, as well as alot of people I assume, think of Oregon first when we hear Portland. It took me quite a few minutes to realize what was going on.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

I think we both might be confused. We're talking about Portland MAINE, correct, not Portland Oregon?

Sorry, yes, of course Portland ME. There's no way anyone could get to Portland OR from the Canaries.

It's the battleship USS Oregon that I was talking about, which had to sail from San Francisco to the East coast.

Again, it's a serious long-shot to intercept her. A raid on Portland (Maine) is not. It would have been easy.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Interesting scenario you have here, Abdul. Still, as others have said, Cuba was revolting and had been doing so since 1897, and they were doing fairly well. American aid was only going to push the balance to the Cubans, however slightly. By then, it was all over. The Philippines were already a lost cause, as was Guam and Wake Island. With the Philippines, the revolt was just too large and the conditions too conducive to guerrilla warfare and the archipelago was just too far away from Spain in order to prevent its revolt and capture. And attacking the American mainland would've only made us more angry, in my opinion. After all, we are a stubborn, eye-for-an-eye bunch.

I don't think Spain could beat the USA, I'm just saying they could have fought far more effectively, and at least come out of it better than having their entire empire stripped from them. For example, Puerto Rico could have been saved.