Spanish Sabah

Under the Madrid Protocol of 1885, Spain would relinquish its claims on the continent of Borneo which was North Borneo or which is now Sabah.


  • What if Spain refuses to sign the Madrid Protocol? Could Spain acquire Sabah peacefully? If so, what happens to the Sultanate of Sulu? Also, the Sultanate reached its largest peak in 1822 and had the coastal parts of Northern Kalimantan? Could Spain pursue claim on Northern Kalimantan?
  • How much influence could Spain exert onto Borneo if it gains Sabah? Could it perhaps influence other places in the D.E.I such as Sulawesi (Celebes) or the Malukus?
  • If the North Borneo dispute continues and when the United States takes over the Philippines, would the US be able to pursue Sabah for the Philippines?
 
Hm, so in the case of a successful conquest of Mindanao much earlier using Milarquis scenario and the conquest of Sabah on 1877, it is obvious the Brits and Dutch are going to be alarmed and pissed about this.

Going off from this, could Spain before the Spanish-American War could Spain show interest to nearby Sulawesi (Celebes)? By 1877, the most of the island was not controlled by the Dutch yet. Maybe perhaps Papua (New Guinea) to?

http://geacron.com/home-en/?&sid=GeaCron242487# (type in 1877)
 
How much influence could Spain exert onto Borneo if it gains Sabah? Could it perhaps influence other places in the D.E.I such as Sulawesi (Celebes) or the Malukus?
Define influence. If you mean economic influence, I gues yes. I think the Dutch could probably allow Spanish traders to have some access to parts of the Dutch Idies, increasing the economic presence of Spain in these areas. Religious influence? Well if they cooperate with the Dutch autorities, I think the Dutch might accept Spanish missionaries, thus increasing the numbber of catholics in these areas. If you mean political influence? Well, simple answer is no. These islands were generaly considered to be within the Dutch sphere of inphluence, generaly recognised by all European powers. It would basicly mean a Spanish-Dutch war, something neither the Spanish, nor the Dutch wanted. Also it would be disasterous for both as neither was ready for such a thing.

Most likely scenario is that the Dutch and Spanish come to an agreement about the borders in Borneo (not too different from the OTL borders) and make some trade agreements so either country can trade in the other countries colonies.
 
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